The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

MICHIGAN Senate 🟥 Rogers: 46%🟦 El-Sayed: 43% EPIC/MRA – 7/24-31; 600 LV TEXAS Senate 🟦 Talarico: 48%🟥 Paxton: 46% 🟦 Hinojosa: 44%🟥 Abbott: 50% Wedgewood Polls 7/30-31; 800 LV SC-01 POLL 🟥 Honeycutt: 50%🟦 Lacore: 48%——Full Field🟥 Honeycutt: 43%🟦 Lacore: 42%🟪 Reeside: 5%⬜️ Ellis: 1% GQR for @MajorityPAC (Dem) | 7/15-22 CA-11 POLL (Chan internal)…

TEXAS POLL – Fox News (C-) GOVERNOR🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 50%🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 49%—🟦 James Talarico: 51%🟥 Ken Paxton: 48% Fox News | July 23-27 | RV MICHIGAN POLL – Senate 🟥 Mike Rogers: 42%🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 41%—🟦 Haley Stevens: 44%🟥 Mike Rogers: 42%——12% of Stevens primary voters say they would back Rogers if she…

FL-08 POLL -Jenkins (Dem) internal 🟥 Mike Haridopolos (inc): 44%🟦 Jennifer Jenkins: 35% @ppppolls | 7/17-18 | 633 RV FL-02 POLL, a seat that one forecast model says is only Likely R: 🟥 Keith Gross: 62%🟦 Yen Bailey: 35%—🟥 Keith Gross: 60%🟦 Brice Barnes: 39%—🟥 Keith Gross: 61%🟦 Amanda Green: 37%—🟥 Keith Gross: 59%🟦 Nic…

MICHIGAN SENATE DEM PRIMARY 🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 46% (+5)🟦 Haley Stevens: 36% (-2)⬜️ Not sure: 14%—With leaners🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 48%🟦 Haley Stevens: 37%——Fav-unfavEl-Sayed: 64-24 (+40)Stevens: 55-37 (+18) Tavern Research | July 26-27 | LV Meanwhile as reported yesterday: MICHIGAN POLL – Senate 🟥 Mike Rogers: 49%🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 39% —— Glengariff Group | 7/22-24 |…

TX POLL By Texas Public Opinion Research managed to find 15% undecided in the senate race, 13% in the Governor race, and 23% in the AG race. SEN🟦 James Talarico: 45%🟥 Ken Paxton: 40%——GOV🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 45%🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 42%——AG🟥 Mayes Middleton: 39%🟦 Nathan Johnson: 38% Three US House polls from Bullfinch Group, a…

Cash on Hand🟥 RNC: $128M (zero debt)🟦 DNC: $16M ($18M debt) Of course its the limitless outside money that Democrats will depend on.

From A rated pollster Co-Efficient, who did an unusually large sample of 1,292 likely voters, adding some extra value to this poll.NY-17 is currently on the Democrat side of the ledger on the HHR House Forecast page. I will have to run some numbers to see if this should flip over to the GOP side.…

Maine Senate by UNH 🟦 Troy Jackson: 49%🟥 Susan Collins: 46%🟨 Other: 2% OH-10 POLL For @HouseMajPAC (Dem) 🟥 Mike Turner (inc): 48%🟦 Kristina Knickerbocker: 41% FM3 Research | 536 LV | 7/6-12 NEVADA POLL: Governor for DGA (Dem) 🟥 Joe Lombardo (inc): 44%🟦 Aaron Ford: 44% @ppppolls | 7/15-16 | 558 LV MN-02 POLL…

Republicans figure on being left with only four seats in California. The one expected to be the closest that they fail to get is CA-22. But a Dem polling firm poll for a Dem political action group just produced results closer than I would have expected: CA-22 POLL For @HouseMajPAC (Dem) 🟦 Randy Villegas: 48%🟥…

Taken by the University of North Florida, who had a 3 point tilt to Harris in 2024: SENATE🟥 Ashley Moody (inc): 50%🟦 Angie Nixon: 42% 🟥 Ashley Moody (inc): 50%🟦 Alex Vindman: 40%——GOVERNOR🟥 Byron Donalds: 46%🟦 David Jolly: 41%🟨 Other: 5% 7/8-17 | 848 LV | R46/D33/I31unfporl.org/presser-page

Checked all over and found no meaningful polls, so all I can give you is Homer Hedgehog:

Maybe…maybe not. The gerrymandered seat was designed to rid Floridians of Kathy Castor. St. Pete Polls says not so fast: FL-14 POLL 🟦 Kathy Castor (inc): 46%🟥 Kevin Steele: 39%—🟦 Kathy Castor (inc): 46%🟥 Mike Beltran: 38%——StPetePolls – 7/14-15; 469 LV Several points to consider. The GOP candidates are battling it out in a contested…

RMG Research (the original Scott Rasmussen) says yes: Generic Ballot – RMG Research 🟦 Democrats: 47% (-2)🟥 Republicans: 45% (=)——(Very/somewhat likely to vote): 🟦 Democrats: 49% (-3)🟥 Republicans: 48% (+1) @NapolitanNews | 7/13-14 | 2,000 RV

This would be a flip to the GOP, and there are now two polls of this race showing a GOP lead. This is exactly the sort of seat we would expect NOT to flip if there was a building Dem wave election. Take note that even though this was Emerson, they were hired by a…

This according to PPP-D. Cooper 48 Whatley 44 The Democrat polling firm also suggests Whatley has a path to victory: “PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds that Roy Cooper continues to lead Michael Whatley, 48-44, but that Whatley does have a path to victory. Cooper’s lead is driven in part by a significant name recognition…

Interesting poll out of Michigan done by Data for Progress, a Democrat polling firm, and it was done for the El-Sayed campaign, apparently to show how El-Sayed is the stronger candidate against Rogers (R). I guess that might be true, but the larger message is that the best a Democrat Polling firm could is show…

According to a new poll from Wick Ossoff 47Collins 43

According to Tavern Research who found El-Sayed up three: El-Sayed 41%Stevens 38% McMorrow who was on record as hating Michigan has suspended her campaign despite the not so clever slogan “McMorrow for Tomorrow”

According to a pollster I have never heard of before, Wedgewood 7/4-7/6; 405 LV Collins 50 Platner 46

…while AOC, Mamdani and their ilk work hard to end it.

Fourth of July Weekend Thread

This district is rated as Lean D by all the prognosticators. But a new poll, admittedly an internal one from the Tijerina campaign, done by Pulse Decision Science (400 LV; 6/21-6/23) found this result: Tijerina (R) 46%Cuellar (D) 38% Other polls today: Michigan: Quantus InsightsEl-Sayed 45, Rogers 44 Iowa: FOX News Turek 50, Hinson 46…

FOX News (6/23 – 6/27; 1003 RV; 3.0 MoE) gives the lead to Collins in Maine: Platner 47, Collins 50 University of New Hampshire shows a tightening race for senate: Pappas 47, Sununu 44 Saint Anselm College shows a bigger lead for Pappas Pappas 47, Sununu 41 A2 Insights gives a lead to Talarico in…

According to NY Times/Siena, 6/19 – 6/27; 656 LV; 4.5 MoE Talarico 47 Paxton 47 Also, in AZ-02, GBAO (D) shows incumbent Eli Crane (R) ahead of Jonathan Nez (D) 44%-41%

Maine poll from Siena College Platner 49% Collins * 47% Iowa poll from Cygnal Hinson 46% Turek 44%

Homer Hedgehog cartoon will be back on Monday. One poll from OH has Husted down 3

Catawba College says yes. Cooper 48% Whatley 34%

According to the University of Texas. But keep in mind their prior poll from April claimed an 8 point Talarico lead, 34 42, with a huge number undecided. But the new poll shows a huge swing in Paxton’s direction. Paxton 43% Talarico 42%

According to Democrat polling firm Zenith Research El-Sayed 45% Rogers 42%

Taken by Public Opinion Strategies 🟥Kurt Alme 44%🟦Alani Bankhead 25%⬜️Seth Bodnar 20%🟨Kyle Austin 4%

But there is always Homer Hedgehog:

Suffolk University Markey * 55%Deaton 30% Moulton 54%Deaton 26%

According to new Star Tribune poll: MN-Gov: 🟦Amy Klobuchar 48%🟥Lisa Demuth 40%—🟦Amy Klobuchar 53%🟥Mike Lindell 36%—🟦Amy Klobuchar 48%🟥Kendall Qualls 37%

According to Quantus Insights 6/9 – 6/11; 870 LV; 3.4 MoE Collins 45 Platner 46