U.S. Senate
🟦Turek 41
🟥Hinson 45
Governor:
🟦Sand 48
🟥Lahn 44
Suffolk University*
8/20 – 8/23 500 LV 4.4
New Book:
 | GOP | DEM |
| Republican +1 | 218 | 217 |
New Poll of Iowa
24 responses to “New Poll of Iowa”
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First
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Damn. You just never know when your time is up.
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As more generic ballot polls have come out in the last few days, here is an update on the trends. 8 of the last 10 have shown movement toward the GOP. 1 stayed the same. 1 moved a point toward the Dems.
Movement toward the GOP:
Emerson +3
ActiVote +1.6
YouGov/Economist +1
Verasight +1
Echelon Insights +1
Noble Predictive Insights +1
Financial Times +1
Focal Data +1Same:
Morning Consult
Movement toward Dems:
Reuters/IPSOS -1
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Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas. All in danger. NC is already gone. Baris puts the over /under number of Democratic senators after November at 52. Disaster. I’m going to be optimistic and I am hopeful that Collins may survive and we have a shot at flipping Michigan.
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Phil, whether or not we win or lose, STOP listening to Baris. He is completely discredited. He was openly rooting for Massie and kept putting out poll after poll in the final days of that primary showing Massie tied, and that turned out to be nothing but cheerleading. I disagree that NC is already gone. That High Point University poll had Cooper up only 5. PPP-D had it at 4. Its not over.
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We are looking at a 4 pt lead for the drats.
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DW, I completely understand what you are saying about Baris. I absolutely do…..and he was indeed cheerleading for Massey. However, that was a primary. Unfortunately, his polling in the last three presidential elections was right on the number. The accuracy of his GE polling has me concerned about November. God help us if Democrats get control of both house of congress. Democrats have told us up front what they will do to the filibuster. They haven’t made it a secret. Both houses and the WH and you can count on packing the high court, statehood for DC and Puerto Rico (4 more permanent Democratic Senators). Hello open borders and the rest of the socialist agenda. There will be nothing to stop them from completely changing America. Nothing standing in the way.
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I have said many times that if you want to know what the true Dem internal polling is showing, then just watch their behavior. Just look at the behavior of Jeffries and many of the others who are refusing to campaign with El-Sayed and are desperate to distance themselves from antisemitism and Piker and the DSA. But their problem is now that its not just goofy old Bernie Sanders. The DEMS have completely lost control of the party, and now its being run by the DSA. And that is a legitimate fear in competitive areas of the country.
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Phil, see its that very sort of fear that the GOP will use in the next two months to drive Republicans to the polls and win over independents. And don’t get me wrong, I am not a blind cheerleader who thinks everything is rosy. Its going to be dreadfully close. But again, the data I see right now isn’t all bad. Not great, but not all bad either. And I still see that the most intense hatred of Trump and Republicans is found in areas that are deep blue already anyway.
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By the way, someone here told me about xcancel as a bypass to access all the data on x without having to create an account. That was shut down last night. So if any of you want to help and track these pages for house or senate polls and paste them here it would help:
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I would also point out that in all my years of following this stuff, I have never seen so many “new” pollsters dropping polls left and right, mostly hard LEFT.
This makes me very suspicious that there is a degree of gaslighting going on. And we have already seen evidence of this. Francesca Hong was between 15 and 20 points ahead in the polls except she lost. El-Sayed was way ahead in the polls and barely held on to win.
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I think Phil’s fears are legitimate. Baris represents a faction of “conservative” deadenders that actually want Rs to lose because Trump (to his credit) did not follow-up on the isolationist rhetoric of “no endless wars” BS and actually moved to defend American interests in the ME. The deadenders don’t understand that while Trump IS an isolationist at heart, he has to govern and he knows that Russia annexing Ukraine and Iran and its terrorists proxies controlling the flow of oil and having nuclear weapons is not in our interest and won’t happen on his watch.
Baris is actively trying to “demotivate” the base so they stay home on the theory “the House and Senate are gone” why show up.
The Baris, Carlson, Candace, etc. faction does have its followers and they could make a difference in the end.
The key here is will the independents who supported Trump in 2024 now switch to the Dems because of the cost of living issue being exploited (successfully) by the Dems, or will they be wary of the leftist extremism dominating the Democratic party and shy away from it.
Again, I am concerned about a wave election. All these close races could go one way if that happens. While DW may be right that the polling does not show a blue wave per se, the fact that solid GOP states like OH, IA, TX and AK are considered toss-ups means they might all go DEM if the wave happens.
My hope is that Talarico is really like a new Beto. A lot of hype, polls showing it close, etc. but in the end he lost (narrowly). But if disaffected Cornyn voters, and there are a lot of them, don’t vote for Paxton he could lose. He is a bad candidate, I have said this from the beginning. Way too much baggage, Trump should have supported Cornyn, a shoo-in to beat Talarico.
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I don’t disagree with any of that jason. And I will be the first to admit it if the data shows a blue-wave forming.
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The one caveat I will make on Phil’s comments is that the filibuster won’t be ended while Trump is President even if Dems win the Senate. It won’t do them any good because Trump would veto everything.
The danger is 2028 and beyond if the Dems win both houses and Congress and the Presidency. Then you will quickly see the emergence of a one party state.
Not that losing the Senate wouldn’t be a disaster. They would not approve ONE nominee for judges, so Trump’s win in 2024 will not make a big difference in the federal bench. There would be endless investigations and Trump would be lamest of the lame ducks for 2 years.
I hope people like Elon Musk are paying attention.
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But I have to keep stressing the behavior of Dems in leadership. They are desperate right now to at least appear that they have wrested control back from the DSA. If the DSA was a winner at the polling booths, then they would be fully and openly embracing it. This means that GOP ads hammering the Dems as having been taken over by the commie DSA will hurt Dems’ chances.
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If I still lived in TX and was still a R, I would have voted for Cornyn in the primary and would vote for Paxton to keep a nutjob like Talarico out of the Senate.
But in social media you see a lot of Cornyn voters saying they won’t vote for Paxton or Talarico. I hope its hype.
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I am not sure the commie issue will be that effective in states where the Dem candidates (wrongly) are not viewed as commies, such as OH, NC, AK, etc.
Rs need to nationalize the commie issue. I have not seen any such ads in PA, I hope they exist elsewhere.
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The MSM is all giddy about a DSA Senate candidate winning the Dem primary in OK.
They stress that she won after only spending $57 k. They don’t really mention that her “mainstream Dem” opponent only had $315k to spend.
Those are both meaningless numbers in a senate election.
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Next WV county east of me… Defense attorney tried “mentally insane” defense. Did not work.
The brutal attacker was 16 at time of the attack.
🚨 JEFFERSON COUNTY SENTENCING: 18-YEAR-OLD RECEIVES 37–160 YEARS IN PRISON FOR VIOLENT 2024 ATTACK 🚨 JEFFERSON COUNTY, WV — Isai Osmar Chinchilla-Guerra, 18, was sentenced Tuesday to 37 to 160 years in prison following his conviction on 14 felony charges stemming from a violent May 2024 attack on a Jefferson County woman. Jefferson County Circuit Judge Bridget Cohee ordered all sentences to be served consecutively. A jury convicted Chinchilla-Guerra in June on charges including attempted first-degree murder, first-degree sexual assault, six counts of malicious wounding, assault during the commission of a felony, burglary, fleeing law enforcement with reckless indifference, possession of a stolen vehicle, and bringing stolen property into the state. According to evidence presented at trial, the victim was attacked after returning home. Prosecutors said she was struck with a cinder block, sexually assaulted, stabbed and cut with a screwdriver, and strangled. She was ultimately able to escape and seek help from a neighbor. Authorities said Chinchilla-Guerra fled in a stolen Toyota RAV4 that had been reported stolen in Loudoun County, Virginia. Jefferson County deputies pursued the vehicle through Charles Town before losing sight of it. The SUV was later located crashed and engulfed in flames off Summit Point Road. Both the victim and Chinchilla-Guerra were transported by helicopter to a Northern Virginia hospital for treatment. Chinchilla-Guerra was 16 years old at the time of the offenses. During his trial, the defense argued that Chinchilla-Guerra was not criminally responsible due to mental illness. The prosecution presented expert testimony disputing that conclusion, and the jury ultimately rejected the defense and returned guilty verdicts. During Tuesday’s sentencing hearing, the victim told the court the attack permanently changed her life and sense of security. She and several family members asked the court to impose the maximum sentence. Before sentencing, Chinchilla-Guerra apologized to the victim and her family, telling the court, “There is no excuse.” Jefferson County Prosecuting Attorney Adam Ward requested the maximum sentence of 37 to 160 years, with the sentences served consecutively. Because Chinchilla-Guerra was a juvenile when the crimes occurred, West Virginia law makes him eligible for parole consideration after 15 years. If he is eventually granted parole, the court ordered 50 years of supervised release. Judge Cohee cited the seriousness of the offenses and Chinchilla-Guerra’s risk of reoffending when imposing the sentence. Jefferson County Prosecuting Attorney Adam Ward said his office hopes the sentence provides “a measure of closure to the victim and her family.” ⚖️ All defendants are presumed innocent unless and until convicted in a court of law. In this case, Chinchilla-Guerra was convicted by a jury and has now been sentenced. #JeffersonCountyWV #CharlesTownWV #EasternPanhandleWV #WestVirginia #CrimeNews #CourtNews #Sentencing #JeffersonCounty #WVNews #CrimeReportAndNews #keepingcommunitiessafe #crimereportandnewsineasternpanhandleofwv
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doesn’t appear senate will change hands.
House looks questionable.
But drats are dropping in the “summer poles” that are fake.
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Fake means inflated. Freepassers fall it every time.
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Only Walt could serve a 160 year jail sentence.
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Tina must shop at the Economic Stats supermarket. Most voters don’t.
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The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
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