The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

America voted for crime, injustice and corruption to become as accepted norms for society so it will become a cesspool like other countries in the world. I am going to sign off for awhile, maybe for good. If Bitter wants to keep it going, that is up to him. But I am well aware that…

HAPPENING NOW: GOP crushing Dems in Florida Election Day Voting: Vote like you are trying to stop a communist takeover. Essentially, Quantus, co/efficient, Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, Emerson, and Trafalgar all see a close election where MAGA voters will show up. Big Data and AtlasIntel see an election where MAGA doesn’t show up. AtlasIntel because they…

And the polls are all over the place. Grayhouse: IA, Hinson +2 | 48/46Trafalgar: TX, Paxton +0.6 | 48.1/47.5AtlasIntel: TX, Talarico +6 | 51/45 <<<Poll of adultsResearch Company: OH, Brown +1 | 45/44Research Company: MN, Flanagan +5 | 48/43Research Company: MI, El-Sayed +2 | 48/46UNH: NH, Pappas +12 | 54/42UNH: ME-2, LaPage (R) +5 |…

Post your PREDICTIONS in the predictions thread please. NBC news final generic ballot is D+7, but their favorability of each party is: DEM +23 UnfavorableGOP +12 Unfavorable This gives an opening for the results Tuesday to maybe not be as bad as we fear.

Here is where everyone can post their predictions. To make this easy on the moderator, please follow the simple steps below. Copy the list of states with competitive senate races, and paste into the comments area and just put an R or D after each state. Then as a tiebreaker, simply supply the numbers you…

Gas price during Trump’s war against Iran. — Gas price after Dem’s war against fuel.

According to Quantus Insights 10/26 – 10/28; 1221 LV; 3.2 MoE US Senate🟦 James Talarico: 48%🟥 Ken Paxton: 49% ——Governor🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 52%🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 46% Gas price during Trump’s war against Iran. — Gas price after Dem’s war against fuel.

Two years ago CNN said that Harris would win… AZ: Harris +1 (Trump won +5.5)NC: Harris +1 (Trump won +3)WI: Harris +6 (Trump won +1)MI: Harris +5 (Trump won +1) So here are their current numbers: TX: Talarico 49, Paxton 43ME: Jackson 49, Collins 45MI: El-Sayed 49, Rogers 42KS: Hamilton 49, Marshall 45 CNN has…

OHIO – SENATE 🟥 Husted: 44%🟦 Brown: 47% Suffolk 10/21-10/26; 500 LV NYTimes/Siena is going with the Blue Tsunami narrative, but even they couldn’t give Nixon a rescue poll: MINNESOTA – SENATE 🟦 Flanagan 54🟥 Tafoya 40 SOUTH CAROLINA – SENATE 🟥 Graham Nordone 48🟦 Andrews 48 FLORIDA – SENATE 🟥 Moody 50🟦 Nixon 44…

Their prior one had Jackson over Collins by 4, now they reduced that to two: MAINE POLL – Senate 🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 47% (-)🟦 Troy Jackson: 49% (-2) 10/22 – 10/25; 1449 LV; 6.6 A 6.6 MoE? And they are unique in showing the race for governor of Maine to be tied: 🟦 Pingree…

MAINE US Senate🟦 Jackson: 46.5%🟥 Collins: 47% Trafalgar Group 10/21-23; 1077 LV; 2.9 MoE

Marist | 10/15 – 10/18; 1185 LV | 4.3 MoE US Senate🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 50% (-1)🟥 Mike Rogers: 48% (+4)——Governor🟦 Jocelyn Benson: 51% (-2)🟥 John James: 45% (+4) Just as sure as the turning of the earth, Marist tightens up at the end to try and avoid an F grade. Even so, in Michigan two…

The notorious gaslighting pollster Marist University had shown Brown over Husted by 8, but now they cut that lead in half… 🟥 Husted: 44%🟦 Brown: 48% They also show Acton up 50/43 over Ramaswamy. Atlanta Journal-Constitution has Jackson up 1 in the Governor race: 🟥 Jackson 46🟦 Lance Bottoms 45

OHIO – SENATE 🟥 Husted: 50.2%🟦 Brown: 49.8% ActiVote – 9/26-10/18; 400 LV TEXAS US Senate🟦 James Talarico: 48%🟥 Ken Paxton: 46% ——Governor🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 49%🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 46% University of Houston | 10/10-14; 2000 LV TEXAS US Senate🟦 James Talarico: 51%🟥 Ken Paxton: 49% ——Governor🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 52%🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 48% CBS…

Insider Advantage, 10/12-13, 1200 LV per state: TEXAS SENATE🟥 Paxton: 49%🟦 Talarico: 48% KANSAS 🟥Roger Marshall 48%🟦Adam Hamilton 47% MAINE 🟥 Susan Collins: 47%🟦 Troy Jackson: 49%

Out of town, but I see Marist went from Turek +8 in IOWA down to+3

Paxton leads according to Quantus Insights US Senate🟥Ken Paxton 47.2%🟦James Talarico 46.7% 10/9-11; 854 LV And then there is Marist who back in September had Talarico up 6, now showing the late momentum going to Paxton: US Senate🟥Ken Paxton 45%🟦James Talarico 47% Governor🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 49%🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 45% 10/8-11; LV Heaven and earth…

According to Siena: TEXAS Siena/ReconMR US Senate🟥Ken Paxton 44%🟦James Talarico 48% 🟥Abbott 48%🟦Hinojosa 47% October 5-8; 617 LV For what its worth, Siena’s poll done with the NY Times was Talarico +6 PROGRAMMING NOTE: Due to the election getting closer and the difficulty keeping up with all the polls, Homer Hedgehog cartoons will be a…

According to InsiderAdvantage (10-9-10; 1200 LV per state): KANSAS 🟦Adam Hamilton 48%🟥Roger Marshall 47% 🟨David Graham 3% ALASKA 🟦Peltola 50%🟥Sullivan 48% MICHIGAN 🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 48%🟥 Mike Rogers: 46% And another Minnesota poll showing a close race: MINNESOTA 🟦Peggy Flanagan 47%🟥Michele Tafoya 43% Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 10/5-7; 800 LV

Updated senate chart:

According to the Washington Post and Emerson College MAINE 🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 46%🟦 Troy Jackson: 50% Washington Post (D+) | 9/30 – 10/5 | 800 LV 3.6 MoE IOWA 🟥 Hinson: 47%🟦 Turek: 45% Emerson (B-) | 10/5-6 | 650 LV 3.8 MoE

The race for Governor of Arizona has been a blowout according to the media and university polls with incumbent Democrat Hobbs ahead usually by double-digits. The only highly rated pollster here is Quantus: Arizona State: Hobbs +13Noble Predictive Insights: +13Higher Ground: Hobbs +16AARP: Hobbs +8Quantus: Hobbs +6 So Hobbs has released an internal showing that…

According to Quantus (B) MICHIGAN – Senate 🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 48%🟥 Mike Rogers: 47%🟨 Other: 2% Quantus Insights 10/5-6; 652 LV Curious poll in the NY Governor race as I would think Marist would have a bigger Hochul lead: NEW YORK GOVERNOR🟦 Hockul: 53%🟥 Blakeman: 42% Marist (C-) 10/1-4; 1361 RV

NEW YORK Governor 🟥 Blakeman: 41%🟦 Hochul: 48% co/efficient (A) – 9/23-25; 1046 LV MAINE POLL – Senate 🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 47%🟦 Troy Jackson: 51% Marist (C-) | 10/1-4 | 1505 RV

CALIFORNIA – GOVERNOR 🟦 Becerra: 48%🟥 Hilton: 38% The Independent Center – 9/23-10/2; 2906 LV CALIFORNIA – GOVERNOR 🟦 Becerra: 46%🟥 Hilton: 40% Hilton Internal | 10-1-2 | 1,020 LV NEW MEXICO – GOVERNOR 🟦 Haaland: 47%🟥 Hull: 41% Survey USA | 9/25-30 | 567 LV

Here is a chart that sums up where we are for the US Senate: Observations: Siena/NY Times has had more polls with the GOP leading than any other pollster. Baris feels betrayed by Trump and is leaning hard against the GOP this cycle. Emerson’s polls are mostly dated now, and they oddly have dropped off…

According to Fox News TEXAS SENATE🟥 Paxton: 49%🟦 Talarico: 51% Fox News – 9/24-28; 881 LV IOWA SENATE🟥 Hinson: 47%🟦 Turek: 49% Fox News – 9/24-28; 1008 LV MICHIGAN SENATE🟥 Rogers: 45%🟦 El-Sayed: 47% Trafalgar – 9/28-30; 1085 LV

According to Fox News MICHIGAN 🟥 Rogers: 49%🟦 El-Sayed: 50% Fox News – 9/24-9/28; 1028 LV TEXAS 🟦 James Talarico: 46%🟥 Ken Paxton: 45%🟨 Ted Brown: 4% Rasmussen | 9/28-29 | 1,028 LV Today’s Talking Point: Freedom dies when free people use their freedom to remain ignorant and thereby follow fools or phonies who will…

According to Insider Advantage: MINNESOTA SENATE🟥 Tafoya: 45%🟦 Flanagan: 46% Insider Advantage – 9/28-29; 1200 LV This poll is not an outlier. SUSA has the race tied. co/efficient is D+1, and TIPP is D+2. OHIO GOVERNOR🟦 Acton: 47%🟥 Ramaswamy: 48%—SENATE🟥 Husted (i): 43%🟦 Brown: 46% BIG DATA POLL – 9/26-27; 680 LV — SENATE🟥 Husted…

According to Marist, that is if you understand where Marist is coming from. OHIO GOVERNOR🟦 Acton: 50%🟥 Ramaswamy: 44%—SENATE🟥 Husted (i): 43%🟦 Brown: 51% Marist – 9/24-27; 1298 RV But recall two years ago that Marist was horrible. In the race for POTUS, off 9 in Florida. Off 5 in Michigan, off 4 in PA…

Today’s Talking Point: Voters are angry about high gas prices. But voters forget that Democrats want to ban gas altogether. New Hampshire Senate: Pappas 46Sununu 42 Trafalgar Group Texas: Talarico 47Paxton 45 Hinojosa 44Abbott 49 Big Data Poll Talarico 48Paxton 48 Hinojosa 45Abbott 50 Stratus Intelligence Maine: Jackson 46Collins 46 Insider Advantage Iowa: Turek 47Hinson…

Trafalgar with a Republican lead in Alaska: Sullivan 47Peltola 46J. Sullivan 3Heikes 1

Rasmussen: North Carolina Cooper 48Whatley 41 Michigan El-Sayed 47Rogers 44 NY Times/Siena: Michigan El-Sayed 49Rogers 44 New Hampshire Pappas 50Sununu 45 Maine Collins 49Jackson 46 Quantus: Ohio Brown 47Husted 47 Stetson University Florida Moody 51Nixon 40

Polls all over the place Emerson Generic ballot is D+11 Siena has Shapiro up 20 in PA Siena has Collins up 3 in Maine, 49/46 Siena has El-Sayed up 49/44 in Michigan co/efficient has the Michigan Senate race tied at 45 Siena has Pappas up 50/45 in NH

Historic gaslighting pollster Marist University is back for more, saying its a Dem Tsunami. They have Talarico up 50/44, and Abbott losing 49/46. The good news is Paxton’s gap is only trailing Abbott’s by 3 in the poll. But the polls are all over the place. Co/Efficient has the CT Governor race with the Dem…

According to Marist and Suffolk IOWA – US Senate Turek 50%Hinson 42% Marist University MICHIGAN – US Senate El-Sayed 47%Rogers 40% Suffolk University TEXAS – US Senate Talarico 47%Paxton 46% Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center FLORIDA – US Senate Nixon 42%Moody 49% InsiderAdvantage

And polls are still all over the place.

Polls are still all over the place.  New Morning Consult generic ballot is D+5 Prior was D+6

Example: Alaska ALASKA – US Senate 🟥 Sullivan: 47%🟦 Peltola: 53% AARP (Fabrizio/Anzalone) Rated C+ in 2024 800 LV | 9/8-11 ALASKA – US Senate 🟥 Sullivan: 49%🟦 Peltola: 46% co/efficient (Rated A in 2024) 799 LV | 9/14-17