The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

Trafalgar with a Republican lead in Alaska: Sullivan 47Peltola 46J. Sullivan 3Heikes 1

Rasmussen: North Carolina Cooper 48Whatley 41 Michigan El-Sayed 47Rogers 44 NY Times/Siena: Michigan El-Sayed 49Rogers 44 New Hampshire Pappas 50Sununu 45 Maine Collins 49Jackson 46 Quantus: Ohio Brown 47Husted 47 Stetson University Florida Moody 51Nixon 40

Polls all over the place Emerson Generic ballot is D+11 Siena has Shapiro up 20 in PA Siena has Collins up 3 in Maine, 49/46 Siena has El-Sayed up 49/44 in Michigan co/efficient has the Michigan Senate race tied at 45 Siena has Pappas up 50/45 in NH

Historic gaslighting pollster Marist University is back for more, saying its a Dem Tsunami. They have Talarico up 50/44, and Abbott losing 49/46. The good news is Paxton’s gap is only trailing Abbott’s by 3 in the poll. But the polls are all over the place. Co/Efficient has the CT Governor race with the Dem…

According to Marist and Suffolk IOWA – US Senate Turek 50%Hinson 42% Marist University MICHIGAN – US Senate El-Sayed 47%Rogers 40% Suffolk University TEXAS – US Senate Talarico 47%Paxton 46% Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center FLORIDA – US Senate Nixon 42%Moody 49% InsiderAdvantage

And polls are still all over the place.

Polls are still all over the place.  New Morning Consult generic ballot is D+5 Prior was D+6

Example: Alaska ALASKA – US Senate 🟥 Sullivan: 47%🟦 Peltola: 53% AARP (Fabrizio/Anzalone) Rated C+ in 2024 800 LV | 9/8-11 ALASKA – US Senate 🟥 Sullivan: 49%🟦 Peltola: 46% co/efficient (Rated A in 2024) 799 LV | 9/14-17

According to Quantus and SurveyUSA MAINE – US Senate 🟥 Collins: 47%🟦 Jackson: 46% Quantus (B rated in 2024) | 9/14 – 9/15 | 621 LV MINNESOTA – US Senate 🟥 Tafoya: 42%🟦 Flanagan: 42% SUSA (C+ rated in 2024) | 9/9 – 9/14 | 654 LV IOWA – US Senate 🟥 Hinson: 48%🟦 Turek:…

According to A rated pollster co/efficient TEXAS US Senate🟦James Talarico 46%🟥Ken Paxton 43%🟨Ted Brown 3%——Texas Governor🟥Greg Abbott 48% (incumbent)🟦Gina Hinojosa 41%⬜️Jenn Mack Raphoon 2%🟨Pat Dixon 1% Mason-Dixon/Telemundo poll (2024 C rating) | 9/8-9/10 LV MINNESOTA SENATE🟦 Peggy Flanagan: 43%🟥 Michele Tafoya: 42%🟨 Other: 4%—GOVERNOR🟦 Amy Klobuchar: 47%🟥 Lisa Demuth: 45%——GCB🟥 Republicans: 47%🟦 Democrats: 46% Co/efficient…

According to Co-Efficient NH Senate 🟦 Pappas 46%🟥 Sununu 46% NH Governor 🟦 Warmington 34%🟥 Ayotte 55% 9/9-11; 958 LV – Co-Efficient (A rated in 2024)

Hope the new spending makes a difference TEXAS Senate: 🟦 James Talarico: 47%🟥 Ken Paxton: 46% Insider Advantage TEXAS Senate: 🟦 James Talarico: 48%🟥 Ken Paxton: 44% AARP (Impact Research-D/Fabrizio-R) MICHIGAN Senate: 🟦 El-Sayed: 46%🟥 Rogers: 45% Trafalgar Group FLORIDA Senate 🟦 Nixon: 47%🟥 Moody: 47% Change Research-D SOUTH CAROLINA Senate 🟦 Andrews 43%🟥 Graham…

Remember just two years ago CNN said Kamala Harris would win WI by 6 and MI by 5. And everyone gives them an A rating because they produce the results that the left wants. US Senate: MAINE 🟦Jackson 48%🟥Collins 45% CNN/SSRS 8/31-9/6, 880 LV US Senate: MICHIGAN 🟦El-Sayed 47%🟥Rogers 44% CNN/SSRS 8/31-9/6, 843 LV TEXAS…

According to TIPP. US Senate Minnesota 🟦Peggy Flanagan 44%🟥Michele Tayofa 42%⬜️Marisa Simonetti 3%🟨Rebecca Whiting 1% TIPP poll – 8/31-9/2; 1201 LV US Senate Montana 🟥Alme 44%🟨Bodnar 22%🟦Bankhead 19%🟨Austin 2% Peak Insights – 8/23-25 – 600 LV US Senate Michigan 🟥Rogers 46%🟦El-Sayed 44% Glengariff – 8/31-9/3 – 600 LV NY GOVERNOR POLL 🟦 Kathy Hochul (inc):…

Slim pickings the day after Labor Day weekend, but here is one poll of a seat the GOP should win: NV-2 🟦 Benitez-Thompson: 42%🟥 Flippo: 45% Strategies 360  – D Internal – 8/22-26 – 400 LV

The next new post will be Tuesday morning.

NEW YORK GOVERNOR 🟦 Kathy Hochul (inc): 50%🟥 Bruce Blakeman: 34% Concord Public Opinion, for Education Reform Now (Dem)| 8/19-21 | LV IOWA SENATE 🟥 Ashley Hinson: 50%🟦 Josh Turek: 45% IOWA GOVERNOR🟦 Rob Sand: 49%🟥 Zach Lahn: 46% Emerson 8/31-9/1 | 750 LV FL-16 🟦 Kelly Kirschner: 40%🟥 Sydney Gruters: 39%⬜️ Not sure: 21%…

Alaska Senate 🟦 Mary Peltola: 50.6%🟥 Dan Sullivan: 49.4% Alaska Survey Research (2024 C grade for being off 5 points toward Harris)August 20-23, 2026N=1,495 LV’s, MOE +/-3.0% US Senate Kansas 2026 🟦Adam Hamilton 44%🟥Roger Marshall 43% (incumbent)🟨David Graham 5% GSG-D poll | 8/12-8/16 LV TX-35 🟦Johnny Garcia 44%🟥Carlos De La Cruz 45% Normington, Petts &…

Michigan Governor 2026 (Likely voters)🟦Jocelyn Benson 52%🟥John James 43% US Senate Michigan 2026 🟦Abdul El-Sayed 50%🟥Mike Rogers 45% MSU/YouGov (C- 5.5 skew in 2024) | 8/10-8/20 SC SENATE POLL 🟦 Annie Andrews: 42%🟥 Darline Graham: 39%🟨 Kasie Whitener: 6%⬜️ Not sure: 13% Impact Research-D (Andrews internal) | 8/14-22 | 900 LV US Senate New Mexico…

Iowa statewide races 2026 US Senate🟥Ashley Hinson 50%🟦Josh Turek 48%——Iowa Governor🟦Rob Sand 51%🟥Zach Lahn 46% Wedgewood poll | 8/27-8/29 LV AK-1 🟥Begich 51%🟦Hill 39%🟦Hafner 5% 8/28/2026- 1,872 LV ±3%Alaska Survey Research AZ-2 🟥Eli Crane 53%🟦Jonathan Nez 42% Peak Insights 8/17-20; 400 LV MI-10 🟥Mike Bouchard Jr 45%🟦Christina Hines 45% GSG-D poll | 8/10-8/13 LV(Poll sponsored…

US Senate Michigan 🟥Rogers 43% 🟦El-Sayed 47% EPIC-MRA (C in 2024) | 8/22-8/28 600 LV 4.0 US Senate Mississippi 🟥Cindy Hyde-Smith 44% (incumbent)🟦Scott Colom 38%⬜️Ty Pinkens 7%—🟥Cindy Hyde-Smith 47% (incumbent)🟦Scott Colom 41% Data For Progress-D poll | 8/5-8/15 LV MD-6 🟥 Andy Harris 52% (incumbent)🟦 Dan Schwartz 39% Z to A Research poll | 7/23-7/27…

Texas statewide races 2026 US Senate – Texas 🟦James Talarico 48%🟥Ken Paxton 42%——Texas Governor🟥Greg Abbott 49% (incumbent)🟦Gina Hinojosa 42% TPOR poll | 8/21-8/24 US House – KY-6 🟦Zach Dembo 45%🟥Ralph Alvarado 44% House Majority PAC-D poll | released 8/27 New Hampshire Governor 2026 🟥Kelly Ayotte 49% (incumbent)🟦Cinde Warmington 39%—Governor Ayotte approval✅Approve 49%❌Disapprove 42% UNH poll…

University of New Hampshire poll says yes. US Senate New Hampshire 2026 🟥John E. Sununu 45%🟦Chris Pappas 43% US Senate New Hampshire Democratic primary 2026 🟦Chris Pappas 47%🟦Karishma Manzur 34% UNH poll – 8/20-8/24 Ohio’s 1st congressional district sampled (Trump +3 | 2024) US Senate Ohio 2026🟦Sherrod Brown 47.1%🟥Jon Husted 45.1% (incumbent)——US House 2026 |…

U.S. Senate 🟦Turek 41🟥Hinson 45 Governor: 🟦Sand 48🟥Lahn 44 Suffolk University*8/20 – 8/23 500 LV 4.4

Finds a lot of undecided in the US Senate race University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll | 8/5-8/13 RV US Senate Texas 2026 US Senate🟦James Talarico 42%🟥Ken Paxton 39%🟨Ted Brown 3%——Texas Governor🟥Greg Abbott 45% (incumbent)🟦Gina Hinojosa 40%🟨Pat Dixon 3%——Generic congressional ballot 2026 (TX)🟥Republican 48%🟦Democratic 44%——Texas Lt. Governor🟥Dan Patrick 42% (incumbent)🟦Vikki Goodwin 35%🟨Anthony Cristo 4% NYT/Philly…

Bitter got to be on hand to witness one of the greatest comebacks in Phillies History. Otherwise…another pollster nobody has ever heard of: Wolfson poll | 8/14-8/16 California Governor 2026 🟦Xavier Becerra 49%🟥Steve Hilton 41%

MICHIGAN 2026 US Senate🟦Abdul El-Sayed 48%🟥Mike Rogers 47%——Michigan Governor🟦Jocelyn Benson 49%🟥John James 44% Fabrizio/Impact (AARP) poll | 8/9-8/11 LV FL-22 🟥Casey Asker 50%🟦Pia Dandiya 50% Tavern Research-D poll | 8/10-8/12 LV MI-7 🟦William Lawrence 49%🟥Tom Barrett 47% (incumbent) GSG-D House Majority PAC (Dem)- 8/11-8/13

NY-21 🟥 Anthony Constantino 53%🟦 Blake Gendebien 40%Undecided 7% J.L. Partners – 8/15-8/17; 500 LV PA-01 🟥 Brian Fitzpatrick (i): 47%🟦 Bob Harvie: 43% Global Strategy Group-D Internal – 8/5-9; 400 LV This one is a complete laugher. Dems were way outnumbered in the primary, FL won’t have fraud, and they have a commie loon…

As reported yesterday, one of the most accurate pollsters, Insider Advantage, has polled Georgia and found the race for Governor tied, but Democrat incumbent Senator Ossoff ahead by 7. Is this a bridge too far for Republicans or might there still be hope? GEORGIA POLL SENATE🟦 Jon Ossoff (inc): 50%🟥 Mike Collins: 43%——GOVERNOR🟦 Keisha Lance…

According to Change Research-D poll: US Senate Alaska 2026🟦Mary Peltola 47%🟥Dan S. Sullivan 41% (incumbent)⬜️Dan J. Sullivan 4%🟥Gerald Heikes 3%——(Final RCV round)🟦Mary Peltola 53%🟥Dan S. Sullivan 47% (incumbent) Data For Progress poll | 7/28-8/4 LV US House 2026 | Alaska at-large 🟥Nick Begich 47% (incumbent)⬜️Bill Hill 37%I would rank neither 12%Not sure 4% Hart Research…

OHIO POLL SENATE🟦 Sherrod Brown: 48%🟥 Jon Husted (i): 44%—GOVERNOR🟦 Amy Acton: 47%🟥 V. Ramaswamy: 46% Wedgewood Polls – 8/11-13; 800 LV LOUISIANA POLL: Senate – Davis (Dem) internal 🟥 Julia Letwow: 41%🟦 Jamie Davis: 37%⬜️ Not sure: 22% PPP-D – 7/21-22 ARIZONA POLL – Governor (for Democracy Defense foundation) 🟦 Katie Hobbs (i): 52%🟥…

Fox News says they are going in opposite directions with Brown over Husted by 8 in OH and Rogers 51 to 47 over El-Sayed

TEXAS POLL By Emerson SENATE🟥 Ken Paxton: 47%🟦 James Talarico: 46%🟨 Other: 2%—GOVERNOR🟥 Greg Abbott (i): 49%🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 45%🟨 Other: 3%—— 8/9-10 | LV MAINE POLL By Fox News Governor🟦 Pingree: 49%🟥 Charles: 38%🟨 Bennett: 9%——Senate🟦 Jackson: 48%🟥 Collins (i): 46% 8/6-10, RV MONTANA SENATE POLL 🟥 Kurt Alme: 45%🟨 Seth Bodnar: 30%🟦 Alani…

Except that Crowley defeated Hong. The polls had it sewn up, Polymarket gamblers agreed. The only thing left was the voting and the Dem establishment pulled victory from the jaws of defeat. The new Governor of Wisconsin will be David Crowley, a man who said on July 8 while dropping out of the race, “It…

According to Cygnal: TEXAS POLL – Governor 🟥 Greg Abbott (i): 49%🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 46% @cygnal (R) | 800 LV | 8/4 OH-07 POLL 🟦 Brian Poindexter: 54%🟥 Max Miller (i): 46% ——Tavern Research – D | 8/4-6 | 635 LV

All from Democrat polling firms…. NORTH CAROLINA POLL SENATE🟦 Roy Cooper: 50% (+1)🟥 Michael Whatley: 43% (+1) ——ForwardCarolina/@ChangePolls8/3-6 | 915 LV KY-06 POLL For DCCC (Dem) 🟦 Zach Dembo: 47%%🟥 Ralph Alvarado: 47%—— 7/29-30 | 474 LV | ±4.5% KANSAS POLL: Senate – Hamilton (Dem) internal 🟥 Roger Marshall (i): 47%🟦 Adam Hamilton: 43% GBAO…

NORTH CAROLINA POLL By Change Research-D Senate🟦 Roy Cooper: 50%🟥 Michael Whatley: 41%— @jgaryp | 7/29-8/1 | 967 LV TX SENATE POLL For @254LabsTX 🟦 James Talarico: 48%🟥 Ken Paxton: 45%⬜️ Not sure: 6% YouGov Blue (Dem) | 7/15-31 | LV

And a host of house internal fund-raising polls. IOWA POLL by Emerson (A) Senate🟥 Ashley Hinson: 48%🟦 Josh Turek: 45%——Governor🟦 Rob Sand: 48%🟥 Zach Lahn: 43%—— 8/3-4 | 712 LV | ±3.7% MAINE SENATE POLL For @MajorityPAC (Dem) 🟦 Troy Jackson: 49%🟥 Susan Collins: 45%—— Hart Research | 7/27-8/1 | 802 LV ARKANSAS POLL: Senate…

Winners: The GOP got the desired opponent for MI-07, a far left firebrand, making this seat much more likely a GOP hold. In the MI-Senate race Rogers will go against Abdul Al-Sayed who liked the Ayatollah and wants to impale Fetterman on a pike as a warning to others. And as a bonus, the race…

TEXAS POLL By TSU (R50-D41) Senate🟦 Talarico: 47%🟥 Paxton: 45%——GOV🟥 Abbott (inc): 49%🟦 Hinojosa: 43% @TXSOTigers | 7/27-30 | 1,220 LV FL-11 POLL – Pericola (Dem) internal 🟥 Joe Strada: 42%🟦 James Pericola: 42% MDW Communications FL-12 POLL – McAuley (Dem) internal 🟥 Gus Bilirakis (inc): 42%🟦 Darren McAuley: 40% @ppppolls | 6/26-27 OK-05 POLL…