The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

Except that Crowley defeated Hong. The polls had it sewn up, Polymarket gamblers agreed. The only thing left was the voting and the Dem establishment pulled victory from the jaws of defeat. The new Governor of Wisconsin will be David Crowley, a man who said on July 8 while dropping out of the race, “It…

According to Cygnal: TEXAS POLL – Governor 🟥 Greg Abbott (i): 49%🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 46% @cygnal (R) | 800 LV | 8/4 OH-07 POLL 🟦 Brian Poindexter: 54%🟥 Max Miller (i): 46% ——Tavern Research – D | 8/4-6 | 635 LV

All from Democrat polling firms…. NORTH CAROLINA POLL SENATE🟦 Roy Cooper: 50% (+1)🟥 Michael Whatley: 43% (+1) ——ForwardCarolina/@ChangePolls8/3-6 | 915 LV KY-06 POLL For DCCC (Dem) 🟦 Zach Dembo: 47%%🟥 Ralph Alvarado: 47%—— 7/29-30 | 474 LV | ±4.5% KANSAS POLL: Senate – Hamilton (Dem) internal 🟥 Roger Marshall (i): 47%🟦 Adam Hamilton: 43% GBAO…

NORTH CAROLINA POLL By Change Research-D Senate🟦 Roy Cooper: 50%🟥 Michael Whatley: 41%— @jgaryp | 7/29-8/1 | 967 LV TX SENATE POLL For @254LabsTX 🟦 James Talarico: 48%🟥 Ken Paxton: 45%⬜️ Not sure: 6% YouGov Blue (Dem) | 7/15-31 | LV

And a host of house internal fund-raising polls. IOWA POLL by Emerson (A) Senate🟥 Ashley Hinson: 48%🟦 Josh Turek: 45%——Governor🟦 Rob Sand: 48%🟥 Zach Lahn: 43%—— 8/3-4 | 712 LV | ±3.7% MAINE SENATE POLL For @MajorityPAC (Dem) 🟦 Troy Jackson: 49%🟥 Susan Collins: 45%—— Hart Research | 7/27-8/1 | 802 LV ARKANSAS POLL: Senate…

Winners: The GOP got the desired opponent for MI-07, a far left firebrand, making this seat much more likely a GOP hold. In the MI-Senate race Rogers will go against Abdul Al-Sayed who liked the Ayatollah and wants to impale Fetterman on a pike as a warning to others. And as a bonus, the race…

TEXAS POLL By TSU (R50-D41) Senate🟦 Talarico: 47%🟥 Paxton: 45%——GOV🟥 Abbott (inc): 49%🟦 Hinojosa: 43% @TXSOTigers | 7/27-30 | 1,220 LV FL-11 POLL – Pericola (Dem) internal 🟥 Joe Strada: 42%🟦 James Pericola: 42% MDW Communications FL-12 POLL – McAuley (Dem) internal 🟥 Gus Bilirakis (inc): 42%🟦 Darren McAuley: 40% @ppppolls | 6/26-27 OK-05 POLL…

MICHIGAN Senate 🟥 Rogers: 46%🟦 El-Sayed: 43% EPIC/MRA – 7/24-31; 600 LV TEXAS Senate 🟦 Talarico: 48%🟥 Paxton: 46% 🟦 Hinojosa: 44%🟥 Abbott: 50% Wedgewood Polls 7/30-31; 800 LV SC-01 POLL 🟥 Honeycutt: 50%🟦 Lacore: 48%——Full Field🟥 Honeycutt: 43%🟦 Lacore: 42%🟪 Reeside: 5%⬜️ Ellis: 1% GQR for @MajorityPAC (Dem) | 7/15-22 CA-11 POLL (Chan internal)…

TEXAS POLL – Fox News (C-) GOVERNOR🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 50%🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 49%—🟦 James Talarico: 51%🟥 Ken Paxton: 48% Fox News | July 23-27 | RV MICHIGAN POLL – Senate 🟥 Mike Rogers: 42%🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 41%—🟦 Haley Stevens: 44%🟥 Mike Rogers: 42%——12% of Stevens primary voters say they would back Rogers if she…

FL-08 POLL -Jenkins (Dem) internal 🟥 Mike Haridopolos (inc): 44%🟦 Jennifer Jenkins: 35% @ppppolls | 7/17-18 | 633 RV FL-02 POLL, a seat that one forecast model says is only Likely R: 🟥 Keith Gross: 62%🟦 Yen Bailey: 35%—🟥 Keith Gross: 60%🟦 Brice Barnes: 39%—🟥 Keith Gross: 61%🟦 Amanda Green: 37%—🟥 Keith Gross: 59%🟦 Nic…

MICHIGAN SENATE DEM PRIMARY 🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 46% (+5)🟦 Haley Stevens: 36% (-2)⬜️ Not sure: 14%—With leaners🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 48%🟦 Haley Stevens: 37%——Fav-unfavEl-Sayed: 64-24 (+40)Stevens: 55-37 (+18) Tavern Research | July 26-27 | LV Meanwhile as reported yesterday: MICHIGAN POLL – Senate 🟥 Mike Rogers: 49%🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 39% —— Glengariff Group | 7/22-24 |…

TX POLL By Texas Public Opinion Research managed to find 15% undecided in the senate race, 13% in the Governor race, and 23% in the AG race. SEN🟦 James Talarico: 45%🟥 Ken Paxton: 40%——GOV🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 45%🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 42%——AG🟥 Mayes Middleton: 39%🟦 Nathan Johnson: 38% Three US House polls from Bullfinch Group, a…

Cash on Hand🟥 RNC: $128M (zero debt)🟦 DNC: $16M ($18M debt) Of course its the limitless outside money that Democrats will depend on.

From A rated pollster Co-Efficient, who did an unusually large sample of 1,292 likely voters, adding some extra value to this poll.NY-17 is currently on the Democrat side of the ledger on the HHR House Forecast page. I will have to run some numbers to see if this should flip over to the GOP side.…

Maine Senate by UNH 🟦 Troy Jackson: 49%🟥 Susan Collins: 46%🟨 Other: 2% OH-10 POLL For @HouseMajPAC (Dem) 🟥 Mike Turner (inc): 48%🟦 Kristina Knickerbocker: 41% FM3 Research | 536 LV | 7/6-12 NEVADA POLL: Governor for DGA (Dem) 🟥 Joe Lombardo (inc): 44%🟦 Aaron Ford: 44% @ppppolls | 7/15-16 | 558 LV MN-02 POLL…

Republicans figure on being left with only four seats in California. The one expected to be the closest that they fail to get is CA-22. But a Dem polling firm poll for a Dem political action group just produced results closer than I would have expected: CA-22 POLL For @HouseMajPAC (Dem) 🟦 Randy Villegas: 48%🟥…

Taken by the University of North Florida, who had a 3 point tilt to Harris in 2024: SENATE🟥 Ashley Moody (inc): 50%🟦 Angie Nixon: 42% 🟥 Ashley Moody (inc): 50%🟦 Alex Vindman: 40%——GOVERNOR🟥 Byron Donalds: 46%🟦 David Jolly: 41%🟨 Other: 5% 7/8-17 | 848 LV | R46/D33/I31unfporl.org/presser-page

Checked all over and found no meaningful polls, so all I can give you is Homer Hedgehog:

Maybe…maybe not. The gerrymandered seat was designed to rid Floridians of Kathy Castor. St. Pete Polls says not so fast: FL-14 POLL 🟦 Kathy Castor (inc): 46%🟥 Kevin Steele: 39%—🟦 Kathy Castor (inc): 46%🟥 Mike Beltran: 38%——StPetePolls – 7/14-15; 469 LV Several points to consider. The GOP candidates are battling it out in a contested…

RMG Research (the original Scott Rasmussen) says yes: Generic Ballot – RMG Research 🟦 Democrats: 47% (-2)🟥 Republicans: 45% (=)——(Very/somewhat likely to vote): 🟦 Democrats: 49% (-3)🟥 Republicans: 48% (+1) @NapolitanNews | 7/13-14 | 2,000 RV

This would be a flip to the GOP, and there are now two polls of this race showing a GOP lead. This is exactly the sort of seat we would expect NOT to flip if there was a building Dem wave election. Take note that even though this was Emerson, they were hired by a…

This according to PPP-D. Cooper 48 Whatley 44 The Democrat polling firm also suggests Whatley has a path to victory: “PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds that Roy Cooper continues to lead Michael Whatley, 48-44, but that Whatley does have a path to victory. Cooper’s lead is driven in part by a significant name recognition…

Interesting poll out of Michigan done by Data for Progress, a Democrat polling firm, and it was done for the El-Sayed campaign, apparently to show how El-Sayed is the stronger candidate against Rogers (R). I guess that might be true, but the larger message is that the best a Democrat Polling firm could is show…

According to a new poll from Wick Ossoff 47Collins 43

According to Tavern Research who found El-Sayed up three: El-Sayed 41%Stevens 38% McMorrow who was on record as hating Michigan has suspended her campaign despite the not so clever slogan “McMorrow for Tomorrow”

According to a pollster I have never heard of before, Wedgewood 7/4-7/6; 405 LV Collins 50 Platner 46

…while AOC, Mamdani and their ilk work hard to end it.

Fourth of July Weekend Thread

This district is rated as Lean D by all the prognosticators. But a new poll, admittedly an internal one from the Tijerina campaign, done by Pulse Decision Science (400 LV; 6/21-6/23) found this result: Tijerina (R) 46%Cuellar (D) 38% Other polls today: Michigan: Quantus InsightsEl-Sayed 45, Rogers 44 Iowa: FOX News Turek 50, Hinson 46…

FOX News (6/23 – 6/27; 1003 RV; 3.0 MoE) gives the lead to Collins in Maine: Platner 47, Collins 50 University of New Hampshire shows a tightening race for senate: Pappas 47, Sununu 44 Saint Anselm College shows a bigger lead for Pappas Pappas 47, Sununu 41 A2 Insights gives a lead to Talarico in…

According to NY Times/Siena, 6/19 – 6/27; 656 LV; 4.5 MoE Talarico 47 Paxton 47 Also, in AZ-02, GBAO (D) shows incumbent Eli Crane (R) ahead of Jonathan Nez (D) 44%-41%

Maine poll from Siena College Platner 49% Collins * 47% Iowa poll from Cygnal Hinson 46% Turek 44%

Homer Hedgehog cartoon will be back on Monday. One poll from OH has Husted down 3

Catawba College says yes. Cooper 48% Whatley 34%

According to the University of Texas. But keep in mind their prior poll from April claimed an 8 point Talarico lead, 34 42, with a huge number undecided. But the new poll shows a huge swing in Paxton’s direction. Paxton 43% Talarico 42%

According to Democrat polling firm Zenith Research El-Sayed 45% Rogers 42%