Here is a chart that sums up where we are for the US Senate:
Observations: Siena/NY Times has had more polls with the GOP leading than any other pollster.
Baris feels betrayed by Trump and is leaning hard against the GOP this cycle.
Emerson’s polls are mostly dated now, and they oddly have dropped off the radar.
Not sure why there is little interest in polling Minnesota.
Rasmussen and Insider Advantage have yet to show any Republican lead in any poll. Between them they have one tie and six one-point Dem leads.
co/efficient, the only A rated pollster from two years ago is the most optimistic for the GOP.
I think El-Sayed is toast. Sure there is not ONE poll showing Rogers ahead from this group of pollsters. But AARP and Fox News both have El-Sayed up only 1, and given his falling 9 points short of the RCP average in the Dem primary, I just don’t see a path for him. This race has written all over it “shy Rogers voters.” Those who won’t admit it because they normally don’t vote GOP, or those who are naturally afraid of radical Islamic terrorists.
So if the GOP closes even just a little in these races, I have the next senate at +52 for the GOP, and possibly +53. But there is work to do and that closing needs to happen. If it doesn’t we could lose the senate.
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