The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

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New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +15210225

2026 Senate Forecast

SCIAKSAKMIOHTXMEMNNH
Gap+6+3+2+2+2+1+1+2+3+5
Count46474849505152484746

Here is where Schumer and Jeffries get their orders….

DEMOCRATIC (DSA) Party Platform:

Strip Americans of all their hard-earned resources and retirement savings, forcing them to live hand-to-mouth, and then replace Americans by blowing all their money on illegals brought in from every cesspool country in the world; resulting in the USA becoming a Marxist third world country dominated by crime, injustice, and corruption.

The Poll that Matters

DW

Vote like you are trying to stop a communist takeover.

Essentially, Quantus, co/efficient, Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, Emerson, and Trafalgar all see a close election where MAGA voters will show up.

Big Data and AtlasIntel see an election where MAGA doesn’t show up. AtlasIntel because they see MAGA as disinterested because Trump isn’t on the ballot and they didn’t answer the poll, and Big Data because Baris imagines the libertarian side of the MAGA coalition is huge and will stay home.

But I wonder if its true that MAGA shows up but the Bush Republicans stay home.

36 responses to “The Poll that Matters”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First!

    Like

  2. DW Avatar
    DW

    in Florida there is ONE county with electrical problems…you guessed it. Broward.

    Like

  3. jaichind Avatar
    jaichind

    Election day vote in FL looking good so far from a % point of view. The key issue now is can the total scale of election day vote can be large enough to overcome the early vote.

    Like

  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    why are there never election day plumbing problems or electrical problems in GOP leaning precincts?

    Like

  5. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Jaichind usually only shows up to eeyore the election for Rs.

    He was wrong last time last time with the “Hamilton Co. IN” bs.

    Could be good omen.

    Like

  6. DW Avatar
    DW

    GOP in Florida leads election day vote in every county except Broward, Gadsden, Orange and Leon. But we are catching up in the last two.

    Like

  7. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Montgomery county (tax) may outrun its 2022 and 2024 numbers. This is a red county.

    Like

  8. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Another guy who loved to eeyore R chances was Bayernfan.

    Like

  9. DW Avatar
    DW

    “from a % point of view”

    well the raw numbers are pretty stout too…. R 249,502 | D 130,532

    Like

  10. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Didn’t Rs win the ev in Florida this time too? I don’t follow ev.

    Separately, Right now, it’s R +26 in Florida.

    Like

  11. DW Avatar
    DW

    Its only 9:30 a.m. and the GOP has already taken the overall lead in bell-weather Pinellas…with mail, early in person, and election day voting.

    Like

  12. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I think FL results are important.

    In 2024 the MSM talking heads immediately dismissed the FL blowout for Trump as “Fl is now red, means nothing”. As it turned out, it did mean something.

    Tonight, if FL is close, it will be VERY significant. And it may well be.

    So a good R result in FL DOES matter.

    Like

  13. DW Avatar
    DW

    “Didn’t Rs win the ev in Florida this time too?”

    Yes, but nowhere near the margin they hit two years ago.

    Like

  14. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    well the raw numbers are pretty stout too…. R 249,502 | D 130,532″

    The caveat of course is how the Indies are voting.

    Like

  15. DW Avatar
    DW

    “The caveat of course is how the Indies are voting.”

    Sure, but if they vote for Nixon, they really weren’t indies.

    Like

  16. DW Avatar
    DW

    The overall ballot advantage for the GOP in Florida just passed 250,000. Nowhere near two years ago, but growing. And the overall party shift from two years ago is down to Dem +6.9 and its dropping. Would be great to get it down to 4 or less by the end of the day.

    Like

  17. DW Avatar
    DW

    Overall shift in FL from two years ago down to Dem +6.6 and dropping.

    Like

  18. DW Avatar
    DW

    So far GOP in Florida making great strides in catching up the lack of early in person voting.

    Like

  19. DW Avatar
    DW

    But as to the question of will MAGA show up nationally…the most heavy MAGA counties in Florida are along the northern panhandle across to the Atlantic north of Jacksonville. Here is the current shift in these counties compared to two years ago when Trump WAS on the ballot:

    R+11.9 Liberty
    R+10.5 Calhoun
    R+7.0 Holmes
    R+5.6 Dixie
    R+4.7 Layfayette
    R+4.7 Union
    R+4.6 Baker
    R+4.4 Gulf
    R+2.9 Taylor
    R+2.0 Jefferson
    R+1.6 Hamilton
    R+1.4 Washington
    R+1.1 Madison
    R+0.3 Suwannee
    R+0.2 Gilchrist
    D+0.8 Franklin
    D+0.9 Columbia
    D+1.0 Walton
    D+1.7 Jackson
    D+1.8 Bay
    D+2.4 Wakulla
    D+3.9 Okaloosa
    D+4.7 Santa Rosa
    D+4.8 Nassau

    Looks to me like MAGA is showing up. I hope the Bush Republicans show up.

    Like

  20. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    lol,

    Boris does not know much .

    @Peoples_Pundit

    ·

    42m

    From the 8am to 9am hour, Florida Republicans added 0.1% to their total edge, R+3.6 to R+3.7.

    Like

  21. DW Avatar
    DW

    Baris is not good at math.

    Like

  22. DW Avatar
    DW

    the edge is currently GOP +4.7. What did Baris expect, that 2 million Republicans would all show up before 9:00 a.m.?

    Like

  23. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    What did Baris say?

    Like

  24. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Sure, but if they vote for Nixon, they really weren’t indies.”

    Right.

    Most of the indies in CA vote Marxist.

    Like

  25. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Trump does brand well.

    Brooke Taylor (@Brooketaylortv) ·

    UPDATE: Turns out these aren’t Texan voters. They’re from Sweden. https://t.co/mslByy5Js6

    View on X

    Like

  26. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I am a decline to state in ca. I vote R. However, most do not.

    Like

  27. DW Avatar
    DW

    “What did Baris say?” He said that from 8 to 9 the GOP barely moved the needle, which is not really true.

    Like

  28. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @ElectionWiz

    ·

    17m

    ELECTION ALERT: TX Election Day, first ~2 hours vs 2024: Montgomery County (Trump +45): 11,477 check-ins vs 11,485, about 100% of 2024’s pace Travis County (Austin): 18,051 vs 21,052, about 86% The red exurbs are matching presidential-year turnout, an early positive sign for Paxton, but Travis banked a big early vote, so its Election Day dip may just mean Democrats already voted. Afternoon turnout will tell us more.

    Like

  29. DW Avatar
    DW

    GOP just took the overall lead in Seminole county

    Like

  30. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Dallas county looks quite ugly so far for Freako.

    Like

  31. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 20 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +4.7 to +5.1

    The shift from four years ago is down to Dem +6.0

    Like

  32. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The aa vote must be off for freako in Dallas county. Freako never tried to mend fences with Crockett.

    Like

  33. DW Avatar
    DW

    GOP just took the lead in election day voting in Orange county Florida (Orlando)

    Like

  34. DW Avatar
    DW

    so now the GOP leads election day voting in all counties other than Broward, Gadsden and Leon

    Like

  35. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 10 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.1 to +5.3

    The shift from four years ago is down from Dem +6.0 to Dem +5.8

    Like

  36. P-Hole (Paul) Avatar
    P-Hole (Paul)

    “Stephen Miller says the 2026 midterms are Haley Stevens vs Hasan Piker

    “Do not force your children to grow up in a country ruled and governed by people like Hasan Piker””

    I’m not voting for any GOP candidate who took money from AIPAC this election and going forward.

    I think Abdul can destroy neocon Iran hoaxer Mike Rogers today.

    Marsh (@Marshiimos) ·

    Going to be voting with our voices! 🗣️ https://t.co/aGEXZIY4TV pic.twitter.com/1Nmy6hJeNe

    View on X

    Like

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