The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +5220215

2026 Senate Forecast

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Gap+4.5+3.5+2.0+2.0+1.0+1.0+3.3+5.5+7.0+8.5
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Winners and Losers from Last Night

DW

Winners:

The GOP got the desired opponent for MI-07, a far left firebrand, making this seat much more likely a GOP hold.

In the MI-Senate race Rogers will go against Abdul Al-Sayed who liked the Ayatollah and wants to impale Fetterman on a pike as a warning to others. And as a bonus, the race was only a 1 point gap. And that takes us to the losers:

Losers:

Pollsters who failed to even come close on the much polled Michigan Democrat party senate race:

Mitchell Research F (off 13)
Emerson F (off 14)
Tavern Research F (off 9)
Tulchin Research F (off 15)
Data for Progress F (off 12)
Glengariff F (off 8, picking Stevens +7)
Quantus Insights B- (off 4)

At the end of 2024, I highlighted 7 pollsters who stood out tall above the others for accuracy, and Quantus made that list (barely).

Another loser is the Democratic Party leadership. They have lost control of their party. They threw everything and the kitchen sink at trying to push Stevens over the finish line, but they couldn’t do it.

The Democratic Party rift is huge in Michigan now, and its an illustration of the larger problem they have nationally. Will independent/moderate voters across the country want to put their faith in a party that is now openly the home of communism in America?

ALABAMA POLL

Governor
🟥 Tommy Tuberville: 49%
🟦 Doug Jones: 41%
—
Senate
🟥 Barry Moore: 47%
🟦 Everett Wess: 32%
—
Attorney General
🟥 Katherine Robertson: 47%
🟦 Jeffrey McLaughlin: 31%

@yes_everykid | 7/8-11 | LV | R56/D32

16 responses to “Winners and Losers from Last Night”

  1. DW Avatar
    DW

    On the GOP side, an also ran named Tom Smith, who had suspended his campaign, won the primary in MI-08 against the Trump endorsed candidate Amir Hassan. Al Lemmo also lost in this race. Any of the three would face a challenge in unseating the Democrat incumbent, but the win of Smith makes the Dem hold even more likely.

    Like

  2. DW Avatar
    DW

    At least one news agency didn’t even have a picture of Smith to put in the little circle by his name.

    Like

  3. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Point of order. If the prevailing wisdom at HHR is that all Democrats are Marxists and the new DSA are communists, how do we adjust our language to differentiate the DSA from the regular Dems?”

    There is no need to differentiate. The ideology is the same, only the rhetoric is different.

    The DSA are willing to assume the ideology. But when have any of the Democratic leaders in Congress like Schumer, Pelosi, Jeffries condemned the ideology any of the Mandanis, Platners, Sayeds, Hongs etc.? When have they refused to endorse any of them in the GE?When have any of the Dems in Congress reprimanded Bernie Sanders for his Bolshevik rhetoric?

    Are all Dem voters Marxist? No, but most have a positive view of socialism. And let’s not pretend that “socialism isn’t Marxism” BS, it’s just that the Dems feel “Democratic socialism” is more palatable than communism.

    Is what the Dem party selling in terms of wealth redistribution, control of the media, ideological courts, open borders, voting for non-citizens, government takeover of the health/insurance industry, etc.

    The fact is if there was a vote in the Dem caucus today to nationalize banks, defund the police and prisons, support Cuba financially, impose a 90% tax bracket, establish a “wealth tax”, defund Israel, ban Twitter and any other “non-conforming” site, give amnesty and citizenship to EVERY illegal in America, have open borders, etc IT WOULD PASS EASILY IN THEIR CAUCUS.

    Anyone who doesn’t think the end game of the Dem leadership is communism plain and simple is living in lalaland.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    I think the start of the movement to blame all of one’s faults on “I was born this way” goes back to every obese person latching onto this as an excuse for their becoming morbidly obese.

    very few babies are born weighing 200 pounds.

    Now “you can’t blame me, I was born this way” is the defense used for all bad and unsocial behavior.

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  5. DW Avatar
    DW

    I think the tipping point in all this was last week when the DSA announced their platform. Nothing hidden, its all out there plain for everyone to see, and they hope, embrace.

    Eliminate SCOTUS, the Senate, and the Presidency, open the prisons and borders, and so on. Its all there for everyone to see. Its what the DSA is going to be fighting for.

    Now the borders being open is temporary, once they get full control and accomplish the other things, then they would CLOSE the borders so we can’t get out.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    At a bare minimum, Democrats will need to spend a lot of money to keep the Michigan seat.

    Like

  7. DW Avatar
    DW

    This is completely stupid:

    “Michigan primary election, governor races (primary votes cast)

    🟦 Democrats: 1.5 million
    🟥 Republicans: 0.9 million

    A roughly 600,000-ballot difference that longtime Michigan pollster Richard Czuba calls unprecedented: ‘“’We have not seen this kind of split before.’”

    The Governor’s race in both parties was a foregone conclusion, and in the senate, Rogers ran unopposed for the GOP, while El-Sayed and Stevens were battling it out in a high profile race. The GOP incumbents in the house largely ran unopposed while Dems had some primary challengers including MI-13 where the incumbent was ousted by a DSA candidate.

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  8. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Having Goofball around.

    4th stop…”this shouldn’t take too long…”

    4 stops so far…I am sure we will also be hitting McDonalds.

    Whe waiting in my car, I continue my decades long search to find a woman whose tattoos i.prove her looks….

    Like

  9. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Eliminate SCOTUS, the Senate, and the Presidency, open the prisons and borders, and so on. Its all there for everyone to see. Its what the DSA is going to be fighting for.”

    Did you see a huge rush of “establishment Dems” rush to the airwaves and social media to condemn any of this?

    No? Me neither.

    Like

  10. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    McDonalds!

    But just as I was in the correct lane (of 4) to turn in to McD’s Goofball waves it off and says ‘forget it! Forget it! Kust take me back to the Mission!’

    WTF?

    Like

  11. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Yeah, old irrelevant fossil James Carville protested.

    Zzzzzzz……

    Like

  12. DW Avatar
    DW

    PENNSYLVANIA POLL – Governor

    🟦 Josh Shapiro (inc): 50%
    🟥 Stacy Garrity: 43%

    @NatPubAffairs | 7/26-30 | 600 LV

    Like

  13. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Shapiro is running a lot of ads in my area featuring his support for trade schools. He has young workers proudly saying they are highly paid plumbers, carpenters, etc. because of Josh Shapiro.

    It’s a good strategy, much better than running abortion ads or attacking Garrity.

    I get mail from Garrity, but have not seen any ads.

    She is a formidable candidate, has won statewide several times, but I don’t think she has the money to compete with Shapiro, who will run as a fake moderate when of course he is just another Marxist pretending otherwise.

    This will be no blowout a la Mastriano but Garrity is the underdog.

    Like

  14. DW Avatar
    DW

    Michigan congresswoman Hillary Scholten expressed concern about El-Sayed, and now they are talking about primarying her in 2028.

    Stevens has already endorsed El-Sayed, so yeah, she wasn’t much different in the end.

    The future of the Democratic Party is here. Its now the party of Sanders, AOC, E-Sayed, Hong, Omar, and others, and their quickly growing numbers.

    Bernie Sanders turns out to be the John Wycliffe of the new “Democratic(less) Party”

    Never forget that during the State of the Union speech, the rank and file Dems kept looking up to Omar to see if it was okay to stand or clap.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The other regional source said there were still details to be determined about how “control” would be defined, with Gulf negotiators insisting regional countries supervise inspections of ships, and that any payment of fees be voluntary”

    Who pays “voluntary” fees?

    A friend wants to know.

    Like

  16. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The future of the Democratic Party is here. Its now the party of Sanders, AOC, E-Sayed, Hong, Omar, and others, and their quickly growing numbers”

    Exactly. That is why I responded to Bitter’s point of order that no “differentiation” is needed.

    If there were really two camps in the Dem party there would be some kind of rift between them. There isn’t.

    This happened in the R party too. The R party is Trump’s party. The “dissidents” are a joke, they are not Republicans. I left the R party, I don’t pretend it represents me, I understand it does not and I accept that.

    Fetterman may think he is a Democrat, but he isn’t.

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