The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +5220215

2026 Senate Forecast

MIMETXAKIAOHNHNCMNGA
Gap+4.5+3.5+2.0+2.0+1.0+1.0+3.3+5.5+7.0+8.5
Count48495051525347464544

GOP Now Favorite in Michigan Senate?

DW

MICHIGAN SENATE DEM PRIMARY

🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 46% (+5)
🟦 Haley Stevens: 36% (-2)
⬜️ Not sure: 14%
—
With leaners
🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 48%
🟦 Haley Stevens: 37%
——
Fav-unfav
El-Sayed: 64-24 (+40)
Stevens: 55-37 (+18)

Tavern Research | July 26-27 | LV

Meanwhile as reported yesterday:

MICHIGAN POLL – Senate

🟥 Mike Rogers: 49%
🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 39%

——

Glengariff Group | 7/22-24 | 600 LV

Two more House polls by Global Strategy Group-D for long shot candidates trying to show its close:

CO-05 POLL – Killin (Dem) internal

🟥 Jeff Crank: 45%
🟦 Jessica Killin: 44%
⬜️ Not sure: 11%
——

GSG | 7-16/21 | R33/D19/I48 | 450 LV

OH-10 POLL – Knickerbocker (Dem) internal

🟥 Mike Turner (inc): 45%
🟦 Kristina Knickerbocker: 40%
🟨 Thomas McMasters: 4%

——
GSG | 7/20-23 | R47/D39 | 700 LV

7 responses to “GOP Now Favorite in Michigan Senate?”

  1. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Fraudci appears to be in. Trouble. He is pleading the 5th. I don’t think he can do this because of the pardon. That is obstruction.

    Like

  2. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I read this a month or so ago from shipwreck an ex DOJ attorney.

    Like

  3. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2082472363384352833

    Sc case on this and Hawley mentioning it.

    Like

  4. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Soooo, overnight the Iranians launched missile attacks on US bases. All missiles were intercepted and US /Saudis hit Iranian backed militias in Iraq. Well, this is interesting. Sounds like the Saudis have had enough. This latest attack more proof that the Iranian bastards don’t “badly want a deal”. We all knew that. Does Trump? Finally? Has he seen enough yet? Says he will now pound the “fucking shit” out of them. Heard that before haven’t we. Will he this time? Obviously the Iranians don’t think so or it’s hard to see that they’d be directly attacking American bases. Talks? Maybe finally we won’t be buying the same rug the MFs keep selling us.

    Finish the MFs.

    Like

  5. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Of course the Iranians want a deal. I will repost the situation in Iran for Phil, who thinks “Iran is winning”.

    Iran wants the best deal possible for them. Their only leverage is the Strait of Hormuz and interruption oil traffic. So they are using that. No surprise there.

    Endless bombing without a strategy is not going to win any war. Air power alone does not win wars, Israel had complete air superiority over Gaza AND troops on the ground in an area hundreds of times smaller than Iran and it took them years to “win”.

    Barring troops on the ground, the only way to get a deal is to use the strategy Trump is (successfully I might add) using, which is to alternate force with diplomacy in the hope that continuing the conflict will become too expensive economically and militarily to pursue.

    Sorry Phil, there are no miracles, no magic wands in the offing. This is a complex problem going on for 50 years, so simplistic platitudes are not going to work here.

    “The government said last month that about 230 million cubic metres (300 million cubic yards) per day of Iran’s pre-war natural gas output of roughly 650 million cubic metres (850 million cubic yards) was lost due to US and Israeli bombing, worsening electricity and petrochemical shortages.

    Authorities are also managing a fuel imbalance as the country faces a deficit of more than 20 million litres (5.3 million gallons) per day of petrol. The shortage is managed through limited but costly imports, blending fuel components, tapping inventories stocked before the war and repeatedly asking citizens to consume less.

    The Petroleum Ministry said tighter monthly fuel consumption caps may be imposed if the imbalance persists.

    The government said this week that it is seriously considering doubling the price of a third tier of monthly petrol quotas allocated to individuals.

    Another petrol price hike was made in December, weeks before the country was swept by a wave of nationwide protests, in which thousands of people were killed in a government crackdown in January. An overnight fuel price increase in November 2019 also triggered deadly nationwide protests.

    The capital, Tehran, and cities across the country are facing rolling electricity cuts, which also create water and communications disruptions. President Masoud Pezeshkian said he has ordered industries not to be cut off until late September to avoid further inflaming a bruised jobs market.

    The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also hit Iran’s commerce with China, its largest trading partner and buyer of oil, which has considerably curtailed its overall crude oil imports to adapt to conditions created by the war.

    But nonoil trade with China has also deteriorated since the start of the war, falling by 75 percent in March and June when compared with a year before, according to Chinese customs data.

    Two near-total internet shutdowns imposed by the authorities, first during the January protests and then during the war, only worsened conditions for Iran’s economy this year as it battles chronic inflation and a rapid dwindling of public purchasing power.

    A report last year by the Saba Pension Strategies Institute, a think tank affiliated with Iran’s state-run pension fund, found that while a little more than 30 percent of Iranians lived below the poverty line five years ago, that rate was projected to have reached 45 percent this year – and was still rising.”

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  6. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Polymarket now has El Sayed at 85% chance.

    It also has the Dems with 70% chance of winning the GE.

    Let’s see if that changes when/if Sayed wins the primary.

    Like

  7. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Finish the MFs.”

    Impossible without ground troops and/or an internal uprising.

    In WWII, the allies were bombing Germany with over 1,000 planes a day. Their cities were turned into rubble. Civilians died by hundreds of thousands.

    They only surrendered when troops actually occupied Berlin.

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