The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +5220215

2026 Senate Forecast

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Gap+3.5+2.0+2.0+1.0+1.0+1.0+3.3+5.5+7.0+8.5
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New Polls

DW

TX POLL By Texas Public Opinion Research managed to find 15% undecided in the senate race, 13% in the Governor race, and 23% in the AG race.

SEN
🟦 James Talarico: 45%
🟥 Ken Paxton: 40%
——
GOV
🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 45%
🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 42%
——
AG
🟥 Mayes Middleton: 39%
🟦 Nathan Johnson: 38%

Three US House polls from Bullfinch Group, a Dem outfit that earned an F grade in 2024 for a 6.28 skew to Democrats.

AK-01 POLL

🟥 Nick Begich (inc): 46%
🟦 Nick Schultz: 32% (dropped out)
🟨 Bill Hill: 20%
——

  • Bullfinch Gr./@Independent_Cen
  • 7/13-16 | 793 LV

IOWA 01 POLL

🟦 Christina Bohannan: 40%
🟥 M. Miller-Meeks (inc): 35%
🟨 Michael Bridgford: 11%

  • Bullfinch/@Independent_Cen
  • 7/13-16 | 793 LV

CA-06 POLL

🟦 Richard Pan (D): 39%
🟨 Kevin Kiley (I): 35%

  • Bullfinch/@Independent_Cen
  • 7/13-16 | 741 LV

13 responses to “New Polls”

  1. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Gee arresting criminals and deporting illegals work

    https://x.com/SenJudiciaryGOP/status/2081810399188394045

    Like

  2. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Tx rino senator who lost re election accuses Senator Lee of demoralizing the Rs

    This loser should Stfu

    Like

  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    If Talarico was really up by five he would not have gone public with support of slavery reparations to win back Jasmine Crockett supporters.

    Like

  4. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Those tx poles are imagination. Much like Baris did. Say they are fake

    Like

  5. DW Avatar
    DW

    Its just a matter of looking at candidate behavior. Even Silverhack has TX Senate Lean R. There is no track record for “Texas Public Opinion Research” but their large percentage of undecided speaks for itself.

    Like

  6. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Trump also told Fox that he would rather the U.S. leave its trilateral trade deal with Canada and Mexico than renegotiate it.

    “I don’t care. I mean, I don’t really want to. I’d rather be independent,” Trump said when asked if he was still looking to update the deal known as USMCA, which the U.S. this month decided not to renew.

    “Here’s the thing: Mexico and Canada need us. We don’t need them. The deal is important for them. It’s not important for us,” he said.

    ***Well past time to exit this trade deal. NAFTA was and is a disaster

    Like

  7. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Tina will not be happy until the U.S. does not trade with anybody.

    Like

  8. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The free passers love trade deals that screw the us

    Like

  9. DW Avatar
    DW

    one more detail about that texas poll from the Texas Tribune: “TPOR labels itself as a nonpartisan public opinion research group. It is directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford.”

    Like

  10. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    EricLDaugh

    ·

    🚨 HOLY CRAP! A bombshell Michigan poll just found Trump-endorsed Mike Rogers (R) LEADING Muslim socialist Abdul El Sayed (D) by +10 POINTS, 49%-39%, in the 2026 US Senate race — Glengariff Group

    Like

  11. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Zzzzzzzzzz The Cult thinks the U.S. has everything it needs so it can sink all of its ships and destroy all airplanes so it does not trade with anybody

    Like

  12. DW Avatar
    DW

    Okay, I am not one to fail to own up to it when I was wrong. I told Jason and Phil yesterday that I wasn’t sure about rooting for El-Sayed to get the nomination in Michigan because I wasn’t sure he was the easier out. They were right, and I was wrong:

    MICHIGAN POLL – Senate

    🟥 Mike Rogers: 49%

    🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 39%

    ——

    Poll was commissioned by Business Leaders For Michigan (BLM) and the Michigan Education Association (MEA)

    Glengariff Group | 7/22-24 | 600 LV

    Like

  13. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16010445/Seattle-shooting-mayor-Katie-Wilson-gangs-suspects.html

    I hate when small groups start shooting.

    Like

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