The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +1218217

2026 Senate Forecast

IATXMEMIOHAKNHMNNCGA
Gap+3.5+2.0+1.0+1.0+1.0+1.0+2.0+5.0+6.0+6.5
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Hope for New Hampshire?

DW

University of New Hampshire poll says yes.

US Senate New Hampshire 2026

🟥John E. Sununu 45%
🟦Chris Pappas 43%

US Senate New Hampshire Democratic primary 2026

🟦Chris Pappas 47%
🟦Karishma Manzur 34%

UNH poll – 8/20-8/24

Ohio’s 1st congressional district sampled (Trump +3 | 2024)

US Senate Ohio 2026
🟦Sherrod Brown 47.1%
🟥Jon Husted 45.1% (incumbent)
——
US House 2026 | OH-01
🟦Greg Landsman 46.5% (incumbent)
🟥Eric Conroy 42.7%

Quantus poll | 8/21-8/24 LV

This last poll of OH-01 is interesting. The forecasters all have lean or likely D. The Dem is the incumbent. Nobody really expects it to flip. And yet the numbers found by Quantus suggest a par election. About the same results as two years ago.

78 responses to “Hope for New Hampshire?”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First

    Like

  2. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Now we just need our canal back.

    Like

  3. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Maybe Janzam can explain why Paxton is not 15 points ahead?

    Early polling is just that, “early.” After Labor Day the GE will catch more people’s attention, including all the foibles and leftist ideas of Talarico, giving Paxton a better ability to be the more reasonable choice for Texas.”

    Ahh…. “early” as in 9 weeks before the election?

    So why would “early” polling show the sitting AG of Texas running against a certified creepy whacko who advocates for destroying the Texas economy, is on record as hating Christianity, pro-abortion, pro men in sports in such a tight race.

    Could it be that Paxton is a weak, controversial, unpopular candidate laden with baggage who cannot even unite Rs against the whacko?

    A friend wants to know if there is another explanation.

    Like

  4. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    There is no “our canal”.

    Like

  5. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Pro men in women’s sports that should read.

    Like

  6. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The Panama Canal treaty was signed by the President and ratified by the Senate.

    On December 31, 1999 full ownership and control went to Panama.

    There is no “our canal”.

    However, the treaty does allow for the US to protect its security.

    Like

  7. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Renaming lakes. Trump is really focused on the midterms.

    Like

  8. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Putina is calling Putin to demand that Russia gets Alaska back.

    Like

  9. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Has she tried to give Louisiana back to Macron yet?

    Like

  10. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Don’t tell Tina about all the land we took from Mexico. They may want it back.

    Like

  11. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    CNN says Trump is 3 x more admired by Rs than Reagan.

    Considering Trump is not really a R and certainly not a conservative it shows what a change has occurred among Rs, from a party based on conservative principles to a party based on populism and cultism.

    Again, I think Trump is only a symptom of this, not the cause, the R party on the path to populism before Trump took advantage of the sentiment.

    That is why I think the populist bent of the party will not end when Trump leaves office, that train left the station long ago.

    I don’t see any influential R that actually cares about conservatism as a principle. I can’t think of one doctrinaire conservative in Trump’s administration outside of maybe Rubio.

    Like

  12. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I think she might have to give Florida back to the Spaniards.

    Big sections of the Pacific northwest and the upper Great Lakes will have to be returned to the British.

    I hope we can keep Cape Cod, unless the Dutch allege they were the majority on the Mayflower.

    Like

  13. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    A lot of the upper Midwest has to go back to France.

    Like

  14. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    And Sweden wants Philadelphia and Delaware back.

    Like

  15. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Damn. The Leni Lenape just demanded my house. Thank, Tina.

    Like

  16. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Native tribes want to get the plain states back.

    They are willing to share the original 13 colonies 50/50 as special consideration. Pennsylvania will have to be renamed Susquehanna and New York will be called Haudenosaunee. Virginia will be Powhatan. Vermont and NH will have to fight it out on which gets to be called Abenaki. Mainers will have to learn how to spell Passamaquoddy, sorry.

    Like

  17. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I am glad the Amish don’t read Tina’s posts, they might get some ideas, the first ones having arrived in Lancaster in 1720.

    Like

  18. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Massachusetts lucked out, the bastards.

    Like

  19. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Some places in PA will not be affected. Conshohocken is ok. Punxsutawney. Aliquippa. Kittanning.

    Like

  20. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Norway is claiming the vikings DID make it down to Maine.

    Ergo….

    Like

  21. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Give the canal to the ccp.
    -freepasser

    Like

  22. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    So what will we end up with?

    Oh yes, the canal.

    Whew, for a second there I thought we would be landless.

    Like

  23. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The canal belongs to Panama.

    Period.

    Like

  24. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Once California is given back to Mexico, Tina will have to learn Spanish.

    I hear Rosetta Stone might have a sale, it’s never too early to start.

    Like

  25. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Panama owns the canal by treaty. Any other treaties Tina wants to rip up?

    Like

  26. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  27. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Vile Shapiro should apologize for lying and misleading people. He owes a personal apology to Rfk. I know the freepassers will still blame Rfk for fake measle deaths, even though Rfk is for the vaccine.

    Like

  28. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    But I am for 45 vaccines to newborns all at one time and 55 Covid vaccines with boosters.

    -freepasser

    Like

  29. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Ohio Man Allegedly Fatally Shoots Roommate, 61, After Fight Over Dog Staying in the House”

    I think he should get a free pass.

    Evidently his roommate thought the dog should be allowed to stay in the house, so it would make sense the killer would have a “temporary” psychotic breakdown about it.

    There were early warning signs that were ignored. A few weeks ago, neighbors heard the man complaining about the dog in the house.

    Nobody did anything. Not the ASPCA, not the county dog catcher, not the state mental health dept, not even Trump.

    The shooter is not at fault when society breaks down like this.

    Like

  30. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Tina has really lost it today.

    Like

  31. Tina Avatar
    Tina
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/2092972713862201476/video/1

    Like

  32. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I see the media and freepassers have pivoted to muh measles in PA. I thought it was a pivot back to Epplestein.

    Like

  33. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16083605/Nepal-flood-LIVE-Expert-reveals-tsunami-sky-200m-high-waves-sparked-glacier-dumping-20-million-cubic-metres-water-images-devastation-imagination.html?banner=daily-download

    Unbelievable destruction in minutes.

    Like

  34. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Final arguments today before Clancy gets sent to the country club.

    “All of the jurors are focused on Reddington as he calmly begins closing arguments. He is speaking in a much softer tone, and away from the microphone, so it’s hard to hear him, but he’s addressing the jury directly.

    Meanwhile, Clancy is visibly emotional, crying and wiping her eyes. One juror is also wiping her eyes and appears to be crying, and two other female jurors appear to look emotional, as well.

    Reddington is playing at the jury’s heartstrings by emphasizing Clancy’s life before the murders of her children.

    “This young lady did nothing wrong in her life,” the defense attorney said. “She was a nurse, a daughter, a wife, and a darn good mother.”

    He showed photographs of Clancy with her children, including a Facebook post of Clancy smiling with her son.”

    I am surprised he even brought up the children, after all, he has always been focused on Clancy “society’s victim”.

    Once the Kabuki theater is over one fact remains.

    Cora (5), Dawson (3), and Callan (8 months) will still dead.

    THEY are the victims.

    Like

  35. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    “This young lady did nothing wrong in her life,” the defense attorney said. 

    Nah. She cruelly strangled 3 little kids in premeditated fashion, nothing wrong with that.

    Despite the Holocaust, Hitler did love his dog comes to mind.

    Like

  36. GF Avatar
    GF

    “Mainers will have to learn how to spell Passamaquoddy, sorry.”

    Quoddamapassy? Passamadaddy?

    Like

  37. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I can’t see how any of those people scurrying around survived that wall of water and debris.

    The death toll has to be in the thousands.

    Like

  38. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    GF is trying to get ahead of the curve. Smart.

    Like

  39. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    THEY are the victims and will still be dead regardless of what happens to their mom.

    Fixed it.

    Like

  40. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I looked up and down the thread and could not find any freepassers talking about measles.

    Must have missed it.

    Like

  41. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    If only Clancy had killed her children while driving drunk, Jason would not want her in jail.

    Like

  42. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    THEY are the ONLY victims and will still be dead regardless of what happens to their mom, who is NOT A VICTIM, only a murdering perpetrator.

    Fixed it.

    Like

  43. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    If only Clancy had killed her children while driving drunk, Jason would not want her in jail.”

    Damm, Tina is rubbing off on Bitter?

    Sad.

    Like

  44. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I absolutely would want her in jail if she killed her kids driving drunk.

    Like

  45. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/08/27/us-news/rare-american-mink-possibly-spotted-on-long-island-for-first-time-in-31-years/

    In other news, the American mink may be back in Long Island.

    Like

  46. DW Avatar
    DW

    “The death toll has to be in the thousands.”

    Agreed. Entire villages wiped away entirely. Instinctively people believed they could outrun it. Their only hope was to go up the side walls of the canyon, but that would be too slow to make it. There was just nowhere to go except into eternity.

    Like

  47. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    If only Clancy had killed her children while driving drunk, Jason would not want her in jail.”

    This is not true.

    But on the other hand, it is funny that Bitter wants to give her a pass for premeditated and intentional killing of her kids, but would not give her a pass if she unintentionally killed her kids while driving drunk.

    Figure that one out.

    Like

  48. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Their only hope was to go up the side walls of the canyon, but that would be too slow to make it. “

    Yep, some of them seemed close enough to try to run up the side of the mountain but I guess the instinct is to run away from the danger rather than parallel to it.

    Like

  49. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I wonder if mink coats will be back in fashion after this new development.

    Like

  50. DW Avatar
    DW

    Already saw one news report blaming climate change…they really don’t waste any disaster. This despite the probability that an earthquake in the region caused the half-mile long glacier to be unstable and then break loose.

    And of course a glacier is ice, which formed due to cold conditions. So they have to say climate change, not global warming.

    So here is the narrative:

    The flood killed thousands.

    The flood of ice, water, and mud was caused by the breakaway glacier.

    The breakaway glacier was caused by climate change, either too much cold weather allowing the glacier to get too big, or too much cold followed by too much warmth which caused it to break off…either way, doesn’t matter because…

    The climate change was caused by Trump failing to listen to Al Gore’s warnings.

    Trump killed the thousands of people.

    Like

  51. DW Avatar
    DW

    one report says at least 1,500 missing, this on top of 359 bodies recovered.

    Like

  52. DW Avatar
    DW

    But that one video of the border station with all the people running and the cars, etc., and then suddenly disappearing….that’s what it would look like in our coastal cities if an asteroid of substantial size plunked into the ocean.

    Like

  53. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I absolutely would want her in jail if she killed her kids driving drunk.

    Zzzzzzz. No you wouldn’t. You had a sliding scale if it was their first DUI.

    Like

  54. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I never said Clancy is a victim. She is a killer. The question is whether she is a murderer.

    Like

  55. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Ratko Mladic, ex-Bosnian Serb warlord who oversaw atrocities, dies in prison at 84, state TV says”

    Ratko is dead.

    Good riddance.

    Like

  56. DW Avatar
    DW

    Tropical Storm Dolly has formed. Puerto Rico landfall by Sunday.

    Like

  57. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    You had a sliding scale if it was their first DUI.”

    Yep. I think the sentence should be commensurate with the crime, if that is what you mean by sliding scale.

    I don’t believe in sending 16 year olds to prison for life for a DUI that kills someone, especially for a first offense.

    But I would certainly support a stiff jail sentence to a mother who killed her children by drunk driving, say 20 years. And if she was a repeat DUI, I could support a life sentence.

    Like

  58. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The question is whether she is a murderer.”

    LOL

    Like

  59. GF Avatar
    GF

    ”GF is trying to get ahead of the curve. Smart.”

    If only it was that; I merely recalled the only scene I remember from Pete’s Dragon, which I probably have not seen in thirty years.

    Like

  60. GF Avatar
    GF

    ”GF is trying to get ahead of the curve. Smart.”

    If only it was that; I merely recalled the only scene I remember from Pete’s Dragon, which I probably have not seen in thirty years.

    Like

  61. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I don’t believe in sending 16 year olds to prison for life for a DUI that kills someone, especially for a first offense.

    I do. Victim is just as dead and there is no reason to ever drive drunk.

    Like

  62. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    The question is whether she is a murderer.”

    LOL

    Well, that is what prosecutors ask juries to decide. Don’t like it? Take it up with the DAs.

    Like

  63. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Dolly was a nice person.

    Maybe it will be a nice hurricane.

    Like

  64. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Take it up with the DAs.”

    Zzzzz…

    Good luck finding justice for victims with your woke DA.

    Like

  65. DW Avatar
    DW

    Here are the google map coordinates for that border station that was in China, the one where it showed everyone running for the lives and suddenly the building disappeared.

    28.2791597,85.3778737

    The water, rocks and mud actually came from the south and was pushing north, but north leads to only higher mountains meaning that the water eventually turned around and washed back through that area a second time. One hotel nearby there says “temporarily closed” on google maps. I don’t think its temporary.

    Like

  66. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I was the first poster to tell you about Krasner and that he would be a disaster. GFY

    Like

  67. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The jury will give her a free pass.

    I remember I won about $1000 (it was worth more at that time) betting that black jurors were not going to convict OJ Simpson, even with the victim’s blood in his car and on his socks. Those who lost their money kept saying “but the evidence!” and I smiled and said it won’t matter.

    This woman had no history of anything resembling insanity. She was not deemed a threat to her children by ANY prior diagnosis. She planned the killings carefully. She strangled her little kids intentionally and in the most cruel way possible.

    It won’t matter. The defense made her into THE victim, horrible society let her down, her family let her down, her husband let her down, everyone is to blame except her. There are people dressed in pink at the courthouse chanting their support for her. The jurors are moved to tears not for the dead children, but for this poor victim of society.

    It’s sick, its depraved, it’s disgusting, but it is the world we live in. And believe me, it will get worse.

    Like

  68. DW Avatar
    DW

    in the google maps you can also see the area on the side of the mountain where the camera was located, and below it that little building that held for several seconds before also being flattened. By the looks of it, the flow of water, mud, and rocks was at least 30 feet above the tops of the buildings, meaning there was no way anyone shown in that video could have survived.

    Like

  69. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Jason still has not explained WHY Clancy killed her children.

    Like

  70. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The scene where dozens of buses are just tossed up like matchsticks is like a movie. I wonder if that building you see in the video is still there, if it is I suppose if you were on the upper floors you might have survived.

    Like

  71. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Jason still has not explained WHY Clancy killed her children”

    Sure I did.

    But then you dishonestly took the second part of my answer and attacked it, conveniently leaving out the main reason.

    I will find it and repost.

    Like

  72. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    She killed her children because she thought she would be better off without them AND to get attention from what she evidently felt was an uncaring world.

    To which you answered:

    If she wanted attention, why try to kill herself?

    Your theory is falling apart faster than Tina’s fake freepasser posts.”

    To which I answered:

    This murderer was extremely efficient in killing her children, a horrible failure in killing herself.

    Nothing to see here.”

    GFY

    Like

  73. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    If she thought her life would be better off without her children, why try to kill herself? If she was dead, life without her children would not exist so she would not be better off.

    Like

  74. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The ny slimes reporter is an idiot.

    Like

  75. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    My interest in this case is not about Clancy herself or even the children, these things happen fairly frequently and outside of the media hype, it is not different from other similar cases.

    The problem that I see with it is that it is strongly indicative of a changing society that more and more accepts the concept that criminality is “society driven” to the detriment of personal responsibility.

    Take the murder of the health insurance executive, shot in the back while walking on the street in NYC. The outpouring of support for the murderers is unbelievable, and the number of people who think it is justified because he was an “evil representative” of capitalism. Bet that during his trial, he will have “supporters”.

    Take George Floyd. Even if you deem the manner of his death horrific and unjustified, the truth is he was a low life drug addict criminal. The fact he might not deserve to die as he did doesn’t make him a role model. Yet you had the speaker of the House kneeling for him and the President of the United States at his memorial.

    This is reflected in the movement to defund the police, end incarceration. “reform” criminal justice”, etc. It is all part of meme that people are not responsible for their criminal actions, society is.

    I think to deny that this trend is happening is absurd.

    Like

  76. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    If she thought her life would be better off without her children, why try to kill herself?”

    Again, how come she was so efficient in the planning and the murder of her children but so inefficient in killing herself?

    How come she hasn’t tried to kill herself since if she really wants to die? Even on suicide protocol she could have tried.

    Like

  77. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I am pretty sure Clancy knew you rarely die jumping out of 2nd story windows, just saying.

    Like

  78. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    The insanity defense has been around for almost 2 centuries. Was society woke then?

    Asking for a friend.

    Like

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