The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

Maine Senate by UNH 🟦 Troy Jackson: 49%🟥 Susan Collins: 46%🟨 Other: 2% OH-10 POLL For @HouseMajPAC (Dem) 🟥 Mike Turner (inc): 48%🟦 Kristina Knickerbocker: 41% FM3 Research | 536 LV | 7/6-12 NEVADA POLL: Governor for DGA (Dem) 🟥 Joe Lombardo (inc): 44%🟦 Aaron Ford: 44% @ppppolls | 7/15-16 | 558 LV MN-02 POLL…

Republicans figure on being left with only four seats in California. The one expected to be the closest that they fail to get is CA-22. But a Dem polling firm poll for a Dem political action group just produced results closer than I would have expected: CA-22 POLL For @HouseMajPAC (Dem) 🟦 Randy Villegas: 48%🟥…

Taken by the University of North Florida, who had a 3 point tilt to Harris in 2024: SENATE🟥 Ashley Moody (inc): 50%🟦 Angie Nixon: 42% 🟥 Ashley Moody (inc): 50%🟦 Alex Vindman: 40%——GOVERNOR🟥 Byron Donalds: 46%🟦 David Jolly: 41%🟨 Other: 5% 7/8-17 | 848 LV | R46/D33/I31unfporl.org/presser-page

Checked all over and found no meaningful polls, so all I can give you is Homer Hedgehog:

Maybe…maybe not. The gerrymandered seat was designed to rid Floridians of Kathy Castor. St. Pete Polls says not so fast: FL-14 POLL 🟦 Kathy Castor (inc): 46%🟥 Kevin Steele: 39%—🟦 Kathy Castor (inc): 46%🟥 Mike Beltran: 38%——StPetePolls – 7/14-15; 469 LV Several points to consider. The GOP candidates are battling it out in a contested…

RMG Research (the original Scott Rasmussen) says yes: Generic Ballot – RMG Research 🟦 Democrats: 47% (-2)🟥 Republicans: 45% (=)——(Very/somewhat likely to vote): 🟦 Democrats: 49% (-3)🟥 Republicans: 48% (+1) @NapolitanNews | 7/13-14 | 2,000 RV

This would be a flip to the GOP, and there are now two polls of this race showing a GOP lead. This is exactly the sort of seat we would expect NOT to flip if there was a building Dem wave election. Take note that even though this was Emerson, they were hired by a…

This according to PPP-D. Cooper 48 Whatley 44 The Democrat polling firm also suggests Whatley has a path to victory: “PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds that Roy Cooper continues to lead Michael Whatley, 48-44, but that Whatley does have a path to victory. Cooper’s lead is driven in part by a significant name recognition…

Interesting poll out of Michigan done by Data for Progress, a Democrat polling firm, and it was done for the El-Sayed campaign, apparently to show how El-Sayed is the stronger candidate against Rogers (R). I guess that might be true, but the larger message is that the best a Democrat Polling firm could is show…

According to a new poll from Wick Ossoff 47Collins 43

According to Tavern Research who found El-Sayed up three: El-Sayed 41%Stevens 38% McMorrow who was on record as hating Michigan has suspended her campaign despite the not so clever slogan “McMorrow for Tomorrow”

According to a pollster I have never heard of before, Wedgewood 7/4-7/6; 405 LV Collins 50 Platner 46

…while AOC, Mamdani and their ilk work hard to end it.

Fourth of July Weekend Thread

This district is rated as Lean D by all the prognosticators. But a new poll, admittedly an internal one from the Tijerina campaign, done by Pulse Decision Science (400 LV; 6/21-6/23) found this result: Tijerina (R) 46%Cuellar (D) 38% Other polls today: Michigan: Quantus InsightsEl-Sayed 45, Rogers 44 Iowa: FOX News Turek 50, Hinson 46…

FOX News (6/23 – 6/27; 1003 RV; 3.0 MoE) gives the lead to Collins in Maine: Platner 47, Collins 50 University of New Hampshire shows a tightening race for senate: Pappas 47, Sununu 44 Saint Anselm College shows a bigger lead for Pappas Pappas 47, Sununu 41 A2 Insights gives a lead to Talarico in…

According to NY Times/Siena, 6/19 – 6/27; 656 LV; 4.5 MoE Talarico 47 Paxton 47 Also, in AZ-02, GBAO (D) shows incumbent Eli Crane (R) ahead of Jonathan Nez (D) 44%-41%

Maine poll from Siena College Platner 49% Collins * 47% Iowa poll from Cygnal Hinson 46% Turek 44%

Homer Hedgehog cartoon will be back on Monday. One poll from OH has Husted down 3

Catawba College says yes. Cooper 48% Whatley 34%

According to the University of Texas. But keep in mind their prior poll from April claimed an 8 point Talarico lead, 34 42, with a huge number undecided. But the new poll shows a huge swing in Paxton’s direction. Paxton 43% Talarico 42%

According to Democrat polling firm Zenith Research El-Sayed 45% Rogers 42%

Taken by Public Opinion Strategies 🟥Kurt Alme 44%🟦Alani Bankhead 25%⬜️Seth Bodnar 20%🟨Kyle Austin 4%

But there is always Homer Hedgehog:

Suffolk University Markey * 55%Deaton 30% Moulton 54%Deaton 26%

According to new Star Tribune poll: MN-Gov: 🟦Amy Klobuchar 48%🟥Lisa Demuth 40%—🟦Amy Klobuchar 53%🟥Mike Lindell 36%—🟦Amy Klobuchar 48%🟥Kendall Qualls 37%

According to Quantus Insights 6/9 – 6/11; 870 LV; 3.4 MoE Collins 45 Platner 46

Texas A&M/Siena 6/1 – 6/4; 807 LV with a 4.0 MoE. Paxton (R) 46% Talarico (D) 46% It’s worth noting that Talarico has not led a poll of this race since April 20, though Paxton isn’t running away with it either. But it is hard to imagine Talarico rising in the polls when more Texans…

A personal account of the suffering under the communist oppression in the Soviet Union experienced by three generations of a family. The Iron Broom <<Link to Amazon This book is extremely well-written and hard to put down. It reads much like those Reader’s Digest “Drama in Real Life” stories. Every young person in America who…

And Paxton in the lead according to Quantus Insights Talarico 43 Paxton 45

Thursday night thread

Democrats 49, Republicans 48

TIPP** polled for the “League of American Workers” and found Stevens edging out El-Sayed in the Dem primary: El-Sayed 31, Stevens 35, McMorrow 13 And Stevens winning somewhat easily in the general election: Stevens 48, Rogers 41 McMorrow 45, Rogers 42, El-Sayed 43, Rogers 42