The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

Presidential Polls – Idaho: Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Zogby 4/13-4/21: 309 LV 59.8 30.5 +29.3 Emerson 10/4/23 55 26 +29

Presidential Polls – Arkansas: Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Harris Gap Hendrix College 9/5-9/6; 696 LV 55 40 +15 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Zogby 4/13-4/21; 385 LV 48.3 41.7 +6.6 Emerson 10/14/23 57 24 +33

Presidential Polls – Alabama: AVERAGE 58.8 33.5 25.3 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Zogby 4/13-4/21; 513 LV 59.8 32.3 +27.5 Florida Atlantic University 2/29-3/3; 179 LV 57 38 +19 WPA Intelligence 8/23-8/26/23; 500 RV 57 32 +25

Presidential Polls – Alaska: AVERAGE X 54 44 2.0 10.0 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap Alaska Survey Research 10/20-10/22; 1,703 LV 55 45 +10 Alaska Survey Research 10/8-10/9; 1,254 LV 54 46 +8 Alaska Survey Research 9/27-9/29; 1,182 LV 2.9 52 43 6 +9 Alaska Survey Research 9/11-9/12; 1,254 LV 47 42 4…

Presidential Polls – Massachusetts: AVERAGE X 33.0 61.5 3.1 28.5 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap University of New Hampshire 10/29-11/2; 744 LV 34 60 4 +26 MassINC Polling Group 10/29-11/1; 582LV 31 61 3 +30 Emerson 10/24-10/26; 1,000 LV 36 59 +23 ActiVote 10/2-10/30; 400LV 34 66 +33 ActiVote 9/6-10/16; 400 LV 33…

Presidential Polls – Missouri: AVERAGE 55.7 43.3 12.4 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth. Gap Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 54 39 +15 Remington Research Group 10/28-10/29; 721 LV 54 40 2 +14 ActiVote 10/6-10/27; 400 LV 58 42 +16 ActiVote 9/8-10/10; 400 LV 57 43 +14 Emerson 9/12-9/13; 850 LV 3.0 55 43 +12…

Presidential Polls – Maryland: AVERAGE X 33.6 61.8 2.9 28.2 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap Morning Consult 10/23-11/1;472 LV 31 64 +33 Chism Strategies 10/28-10/30;510 LV 33 56 1 +23 University of Maryland 10/23-10/27; 500 LV 34 61 2 +27 ActiVote 10/6-10/30; 400 LV 37 64 +28 The Washington Post/University of Maryland 10/17-10/22;…

Presidential Polls – Illinois: AVERAGE Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Harris Gap ActiVote 10/4-10/28; 400 LV 42 58 +16 ActiVote 9/3-10/5; 400 LV 41 59 +18 ActiVote 8/6-8/29;400 LV 42 58 +16 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Zogby 4/13-4/21 643 LV 40.2 52.9 +12.7 Emerson 10/14/23 34 43 +9 Cor Strategies 8/27/23 35 55 +20

Presidential Polls – South Carolina: AVERAGE 56.0 42.0 14.0 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap The Citadel 10/17-10/25; 1,136 LV 54 42 +12 Claflin University 10/5-10/10; 1,005 LV 50 43 +7 ActiVote 10/5-10/29; 400LV 59 42 +17 East Carolina University 10/18-10/22; 950LV 55 42 1 +13 ActiVote 9/9-10/17; 400 LV 58 42 +16 Winthrop…

Presidential Polls – Montana: AVERAGE 57.2 39.4 1.0 17.8 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth. Gap AtlasIntel 11/1-11/4; 752 LV 57.3 37.1 5.0 +20.2 Emerson College 10/23-10/25; 1,000 LV 59 40 +19 Montana State University Billings 9/30-10/16; 760 A 52 34 6 +18 The New York Times/Siena College 10/5-10/8; 656 LV 56 39 0 +17…

Presidential Polls – New York: AVERAGE 40.0 57.2 17.2 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 41 57 +16 Cygnal 10/26-10/27; 600 LV 39 57 +18 ActiVote 10/7-10/27; 400 LV 41 59 +18 Siena College 10/13-10/17; 872 LV 39 58 +19 YouGov/Claremont McKenna College 10/7-10/17; 1,089LV 38 58 +20 Emerson…

Presidential Polls – California: AVERAGE X 33.8 59.8 4.0 26.0 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth. Gap Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 32 64 +32 Cygnal 10/27-10/30; 611 LV 31 55 9 +24 University of California Berkeley 10/22-10/29;4,341 LV 35 57 2 +22 ActiVote 10/7-10/27; 400 LV 37 63 +26 YouGov/Claremont McKenna College 10/7-10/17;1,139 LV…

The Hedgehog Report Polling Aggregator includes the most recent polls of each state with weighting applied in four ways: Independent candidate Robert Kennedy has qualified to appear on the ballot in a growing numbers of states, with the expectation that he will appear on the ballot in most states. The polling average used for the…

Presidential Polls – Michigan: AVERAGE X 43.4 42.7 1.9 0.8 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap AtlasIntel 11/3-11/4; 1,113 LV 49.6 47.8 2.4 +1.8 Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 47 49 +2 Trafalgar Group 11/1-11/3; 1,079 LV 47.8 47.4 +0.4 Patriot Polling 11/1-11/3; 858 RV 48.5 49.2 +0.7 AtlasIntel 11/1-11/2; 1,198 LV 49.3 47.8…

Presidential Polls – Nevada: AVERAGE X 49.3 46.2 1.2 3.1 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap AtlasIntel 11/3-11/4; 707 LV 4.0 50.2 47.1 +3.1 Patriot Polling 11/1-11/3; 792 RV 49.5 49.4 +0.1 AtlasIntel 11/1-11/2; 782 LV 51.4 45.9 +5.5 Emerson College 10/30-11/2; 840 LV 48.4 48.1 +0.3 The New York Times/Siena College 10/24-11/2;1,010 LV…

Presidential Polls – Wisconsin: AVERAGE 49.0 48.0 1.5 1.0 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap AtlasIntel 11/3-11/4; 869 LV 3.0 49.1 47.9 1.5 +1.2 Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 46 49 +3 Patriot Polling 11/1-11/3; 835 RV 49.0 48.7 +0.3 Trafalgar Group 11/1-11/3; 1,086 LV 47 48.2 2.6 +1.2 InsiderAdvantage 11/1-11/2; 800 LV 49…

Presidential Polls – Pennsylvania: AVERAGE X 49.8 47.0 1.5 2.8 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap AtlasIntel 11/3-11/4; 1,840 LV 49.1 48.4 0.8 +0.7 Survation 11/1-11/4; 915 LV 48 51 2 +3 Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 47 48 +1 Patriot Polling 11/1-11/3; 903 RV 49.6 48.7 +0.9 Trafalgar Group 11/1-11/3; 1,089 LV 48.4…

Presidential Polls – Minnesota: AVERAGE X 45.4 49.3 3.2 4.4 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap AtlasIntel 11/1-11/4; 2,065 LV 46.8 48.9 3.5 +2.1 Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 44 51 +7 Chism Strategies 10/28-10/30; 534 LV 43 48 2 +5 KSTP/SurveyUSA 10/24-10/28;728 LV 4.0 42 53 2 +8 Rasmussen Reports 10/24-10/26;959 LV 47…

Presidential Polls – Maine: AVERAGE: XX 41.7 51.0 3.0 9.4X Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth. Gap University of New Hampshire 10/29-11/2; 1,485 LV 41 52 3 +11 SurveyUSA 10/24-10/29; 1,079 LV 43 51 3 +8 Digital Research 9/10-10/7; 604 RV 41 48 5 +7 Pan Atlantic Research 9/5-9/15; 812 LV 3.5 41 50 +9…

Presidential Polls – Virginia: AVERAGE X 48.1 49.9 2.1 1.9 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap AtlasIntel 11/1-11/4;2,202 LV 2.0 45.1 50.5 3 +5.4 Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 45 51 +6 Chism Strategies 10/28-10/30; 520 LV 44.5 45.2 +0.7 Cygnal 10/27-10/29; 600LV 43 50 2 +7 Roanoke College 10/25-10/29; 851LV 41 51 5…

Presidential Polls – Colorado: AVERAGE XX 42.7 54.0 11.3 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap Keating Research 10/28-10/30; 600 LV 41 53 +12 YouGovUniversity of Colorado 10/18-10/30; 570 LV 44 52 +8 ActiVote 10/1-10/30; 400LV 43 57 +14 ActiVote 9/15-10/19; 400LV 41 59 +18 Morning Consult 9/9-9/18; 512 LV 42 53 +11 Keating Research…

Presidential Polls – New Hampshire: AVERAGE X 47.5 49.8 2.0 2.3 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth. Gap The Dartmouth Poll 11/1-11/3; 587 LV 34 62 +28 University of New Hampshire 10/29-11/2;2,814 LV 46 51 1 +5 Saint Anselm College 10/28-10/29; 2,791 LV 46 51 1 +5 Rasmussen Reports 10/24-10/28901 LV 3.0 47 48 +1…

Presidential Polls – Arizona: AVERAGE 49.9 45.5 1.9 4.4 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap AtlasIntel 11/3-11/4; 875 LV 3.0 51 45.9 1.5 +5.1 Victory Insights 11/2-11/3; 750 LV 49 48 +1 Trafalgar Group 11/1-11/3; 1,090 LV 49.2 47.1 1.6 +2.1 Patriot Polling 11/1-11/3; 801 RV 51 48 +3 AtlasIntel 11/1-11/2; 967 LV 51.9…

Presidential Polls – New Mexico: AVERAGE XX 44.8 49.3 2.4 4.5 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap Victory Insights 11/1-11/3; 600 LV 45 50 +5 SurveyUSA 10/28-10/31; 632 LV 44 50 +6 Rasmussen Reports 10/24-10/26; 749 LV 3.0 44 49 +5 KA Consulting 10/16-10/18; 612 LV 46 49 1 +3 Research & Polling 10/10-10/18;…

Presidential Polls – North Carolina: AVERAGE X 50.4 46.9 1.7 3.5 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap AtlasIntel 11/3-11/4; 1,219 LV 3.0 49.8 47.6 1.3 +2.2 Patriot Polling 11/1-11/3; 799 RV 50.5 48.9 +1.6 AtlasIntel 11/1-11/2; 1,310 LV 50.4 46.8 +3.2 InsiderAdvantage 11/1-11/2; 800 LV 49 47 +2 Emerson College 10/30-11/2;860 LV 49.3 48.3…

Presidential Polls – Georgia: AVERAGE X 50.0 48.0 1.6 2.0 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap AtlasIntel 11/3-11/4; 1,112 LV 48.2 48.2 1.5 0 InsiderAdvantage 11/2-11/3; 800 LV 49 48 +1 Patriot Polling 11/1-11/3; 818 RV 50.4 48.6 +1.8 AtlasIntel 11/1-11/2; 1,174 LV 48.6 46.8 +1.8 Emerson College 10/30-11/2; 800 LV 49.8 49.3 +0.5…

Presidential Polls – Texas: AVERAGE X 51.8 43.0 2.0 8.8 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap AtlasIntel 11/1-11/4; 2,434 LV 54 44 1 +10 Cygnal 10/26-10/28; 600 LV 51 43 +8 Morning Consult 10/22-10/31;2,120 LV 52 45 +7 The New York Times/Siena College 10/23-10/26; 1,180 LV 51 40 2 +11 Rasmussen Reports 10/24-10/25; 1,002…

Presidential Polls – Florida: AVERAGE X 53.3 44.2 1.5 9.2 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 51 44 +7 Victory Insights 11/1-11/2; 400 LV 51 47 +4 Stetson University 10/25-11/1; 452 LV 53 46 +7 Morning Consult 10/23-11/1; 2,022LV 51 46 +5 Cygnal 10/26-10/28; 600 LV 48 43 +5…

Presidential Polls – Iowa: AVERAGE 53.0 44.5 8.5 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap InsiderAdvantage 11/2-11/3; 800 LV 52 46 +6 SoCal Strategies 11/2-11/3; 435 LV 52 44 +8 Emerson College 11/1-11/2; 800 LV 54 45 +9 Selzer & Co. 10/28-10/31; 808 LV 44 47 3 +3 Cygnal 9/27-9/28; 600 LV 51.3 44.6 +6.7…

Presidential Polls – Ohio: AVERAGE X 52.0 44.7 2.6 7.3 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap Trafalgar Group 11/2-11/4; 1,095LV 52.1 45.2 1.6 +6.9 AtlasIntel 11/ 1-11/4; 1,022 LV 4.0 53.5 44.6 1.3 +8.9 Emerson College 10/30-11/2; 900 LV 55 44 +11 Morning Consult 10/23-11/1; 1,254 LV 53 44 +9 Miami University 10/28-10/30; 859RV 49…

The 2024 Presential polling average chart is up and running. The gap shown is the average gap of the last seven polls (a few states are not to seven yet). Unlike RCP where they just average all recent polls including stale ones, the HHR aggregator formula weights the polls based on age, with the newest…

According to Quinnipiac: Trump 44, Biden 50. Conversely, they have Haley 47, Biden 42.