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The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.


  • Friday with new polling
  • GOP maybe rid of Massie?
  • Wednesday without Polls
  • Collins in Deep Trouble in Maine
  • Monday Morning After Incredible Rescue
  • 2024 Election Polling Grades
  • 2024 Polling Aggregator
  • Walt’s List of Trump’s Achievements

Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:41.6 / 55.6-14.0
Pollsters right in 2024:45.5 / 52.1-6.6

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +21207228

2026 Senate Forecast

OHTXMIGANHMEMNNC
Gap+1.4+1.2+1.8+1.4+4.5+5.6+7.0+7.5
Count5051494847464544
  • Montana Polls

    Presidential Polls – Montana: AVERAGE 57.2 39.4 1.0 17.8 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth. Gap AtlasIntel 11/1-11/4; 752 LV 57.3 37.1 5.0 +20.2 Emerson College 10/23-10/25; 1,000 LV 59 40 +19 Montana State University Billings 9/30-10/16; 760 A 52 34 6 +18 The New York Times/Siena College 10/5-10/8; 656 LV 56 39 0 +17…

    March 3, 2024
  • New York Polls

    Presidential Polls – New York: AVERAGE 40.0 57.2 17.2 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 41 57 +16 Cygnal 10/26-10/27; 600 LV 39 57 +18 ActiVote 10/7-10/27; 400 LV 41 59 +18 Siena College 10/13-10/17; 872 LV 39 58 +19 YouGov/Claremont McKenna College 10/7-10/17; 1,089LV 38 58 +20 Emerson…

    March 3, 2024
  • North Carolina favors Trump over Biden

    According to High Point University, who didn’t actually use the candidate’s names in this part of their poll: NORTH CAROLINA – High Point University Trump* 47 Biden* 41 2/16 – 2/23; 753 LV. *Poll used “Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate.”

    March 3, 2024
  • California Polls

    Presidential Polls – California: AVERAGE X 33.8 59.8 4.0 26.0 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth. Gap Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 32 64 +32 Cygnal 10/27-10/30; 611 LV 31 55 9 +24 University of California Berkeley 10/22-10/29;4,341 LV 35 57 2 +22 ActiVote 10/7-10/27; 400 LV 37 63 +26 YouGov/Claremont McKenna College 10/7-10/17;1,139 LV…

    March 3, 2024
  • New thread. New week.

    March 3, 2024
  • Battlegrounds close according to “FocalData”

    I am debating whether or not to include these polls in the Aggregator simply because these polls are online only, and there are no undecideds or third-party selections among the likely voter samples. NEVADA – FocalData Trump 51 Biden 49 January 17-23; Likely Voters ARIZONA – FocalData Trump 50 Biden 50 January 17-23; Likely Voters…

    March 2, 2024
  • Who wants to be first?

    March 2, 2024
  • Biden with edge in VIRGINIA

    VIRGINIA – Roanoke College Biden 47 Trump 43 2/11-2/19; 703 RV

    March 1, 2024
  • Vic?

    March 1, 2024
  • Tight race in Texas?

    Yes, if you believe the University of Texas at Tyler: TEXAS – University of Texas at Tyler Trump 46 Biden 42 US Senate Cruz 41 Allred 41 February 18-26; 1,167 RV

    February 29, 2024
  • Found: State where Biden still leads

    According to Emerson College: CALIFORNIA – Emerson College/The Hill Biden 57 Trump 35 Feb. 24-27; 1,000 LV

    February 29, 2024
  • Trump leads all battleground states

    According to Morning Consult/Bloomberg: Morning Consult/Bloomberg ARIZONA Trump 49 Biden 43 2/12 – 2/20; 798 RV Morning Consult/Bloomberg GEORGIA Trump 49 Biden 43 2/12 – 2/20; 800 RV Morning Consult/Bloomberg MICHIGAN Trump 46 Biden 44 2/12 – 2/20; 702 RV Morning Consult/Bloomberg NEVADA Trump 48 Biden 42 2/12 – 2/20; 445 RV Morning Consult/Bloomberg NORTH…

    February 29, 2024
  • A thread to keep streak going.

    February 29, 2024
  • Trump up in ARIZONA

    According to Rasmussen: Rasmussen Reports – ARIZONA Trump 47 Biden 40 Feb. 21-26; 1,001 LV

    February 28, 2024
  • Lake leads in ARIZONA senate race

    According to Rasmussen: Rasmussen – ARIZONA Senate Lake (R) 37 Lake (R) 45 Gallego (D) 33 Gallego (D) 42 Sinema (I-Inc) 21 Feb. 21-26; 1,001 LV

    February 28, 2024
  • So Democrats who don’t like Biden and Republicans who don’t like Trump voted yesterday. The sun still rose in the East. Both can be true.

    February 28, 2024
  • More MI and WI Polls

    Trump with leads and a tie: Kaplan Strategies – MICHIGAN Kaplan Strategies – WISCONSIN Trump 46 Trump 41 Biden 36 Biden 39 February 22-23; 1,019 RV in MI, 941 RV in WI. North Star Opinion Research – MICHIGAN Trump 43 Biden 43 February 22-25; 600 LV

    February 27, 2024
  • Trump with lead in WISCONSIN

    According to Emerson: Emerson – WISCONSIN Trump 45 Trump 41 Biden 42 Biden 37 Kennedy 7 West 1 Stein 1 2/20-2/24/2024; 1000 RV

    February 27, 2024
  • 2 men walk into a bar. The second guy should have seen it

    February 27, 2024
  • Boom. Trump crushes it in MAINE against Biden.

    According to a new poll by Pan Atlantic Research: Pan-Atlantic Research – MAINE CD_01 CD_02 Trump 38 Trump 31 Trump 45 Biden 32 Biden 39 Biden 25 2/6-2/14/24; 691 LV

    February 26, 2024
  • Trump tops Biden in MICHIGAN

    According to a new Emerson Poll: Emerson – MICHIGAN Trump 46 Trump 42 Biden 44 Biden 39 Kennedy 6 West 1 Stein 1 2/20-2/24/2024; 1000 RV Emerson’s November poll of Michigan was Biden 44/Trump 43.

    February 26, 2024
  • New week. New polls? Dw?

    February 26, 2024
  • I am tired of scrolling. New thread.

    Thread rule. Any reference to Deep State means I disregard your post. It will still appear but it has no credibility with me.

    February 25, 2024
  • New thread? Why not?

    February 24, 2024
  • DW is away. Bring your own polls!

    February 23, 2024
  • Trump leads in NEVADA and ARIZONA

    According to new polls from Emerson: Emerson – NEVADA Trump 46 Trump 44 Biden 40 Biden 34 Kennedy 6 West 1 Stein 1 2/16-2/19/2024 1,000 RV Emerson – ARIZONA Trump 46 Trump 43 Biden 43 Biden 37 Kennedy 8 West 1 Stein 1 2/16-2/19/2024 1,000 RV

    February 22, 2024
  • Wake up, DW. The poll addicts need a fix.

    February 22, 2024
  • Advantage Trump in GA, NC, and MI

    According to Emerson and EPIC/MRA: Emerson – GEORGIA Trump 48 Trump 45 Biden 42 Biden 36 Kennedy 6 West 1 Stein 1 2/14-2/16/2024; 1000 RV Emerson – NORTH CAROLINA Trump 47 Trump 46 Biden 44 Biden 37 Kennedy 5 West 1 Stein 1 2/14-2/16/2024; 1000 RV EPIC-MRA – MICHIGAN Trump 45 Biden 41 2/13-2/18/2024; 600…

    February 21, 2024
  • I do not think Democrats are stupid enough to throw away their vote on RFK, Jr. Discuss.

    February 21, 2024
  • Trump with edge in PENNSYLVANIA

    According to new poll by Emerson/The Hill: Emerson – PENNSYLVANIA Trump 45 Trump 42 Biden 43 Biden 37 Kennedy 8 West 2 Stein 1 2/14-2/16/24; 1000 RV Emerson also has new polls of CALIFORNIA and SOUTH CAROLINA: Emerson – CALIFORNIA Biden 55 Biden 49 Trump 33 Trump 31 Kennedy 8 West 1 Stein 1 2/16-2/18/24;…

    February 20, 2024
  • Waiting for DW.

    February 20, 2024
  • Post what you want. No free lunch. Both can be true.

    February 19, 2024
  • Where do we go from here?

    February 18, 2024
  • Trump up 9 in IOWA

    According to Cygnal: Trump 49 Biden 40 600 LV Feb 12-13

    February 17, 2024
  • I am heading to Pittsburgh to see my daughter. I won’t see Trump in Philadelphia.

    February 17, 2024
  • Trump up only 3 in NC

    If you believe the new East Carolina University poll: East Carolina University – NORTH CAROLINA Trump 47 Biden 44 Kennedy 2 West 1 Stein or other 1 Undecided 6 February 9-12, 2024; 1,207 RV

    February 16, 2024
  • Enjoy the long weekend. Unless you have to work on Monday.

    February 16, 2024
  • Trump ahead in NC & MI

    According to new Fox News Poll: Fox News/Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) – NORTH CAROLINA Trump 50 Trump 46 Biden 45 Biden 37 Kennedy 8 Stein 2 West 1 Feb. 8-12; 1,099 RV Fox News/Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) – Michigan Trump 47 Trump 42 Biden 45 Biden 37 Kennedy 11…

    February 15, 2024
  • Any polls, DW?

    February 15, 2024
  • Happy St. Valentine’s Day. It’s also Ash Wednesday. Don’t go too wild.

    February 14, 2024
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The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

 

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