This from UMass / YouGov, probably the most under-pushed poll I have ever seen with an absurd number of undecided among a poll of 1000 adults.
US President 2028
🟥JD Vance 36%
🟦Gavin Newsom 33%
—
🟥JD Vance 36%
🟦AOC 33%
——
🟦Gavin Newsom 33%
🟥Tucker Carlson 25%
—
🟦AOC 32%
🟥Tucker Carlson 25%
——
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 38%
🟥Republican 35%
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
110 responses to “Friday with new polling”
1st
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Scheffler demonstrating the old truism that you cannot win The Masters on Friday, but you can lose it.
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He is still only 4 shots off the lead, don’t count him out yet.
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“Two hundred chimpanzees are embroiled in a ‘civil war’
The world’s largest-known group of chimpanzees split into two factions that are now engaged in deadly combat”
Hey Walt, are you on this?
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See that shot?
And who picks Amanda Balionis’ jacket?
Geezus.
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Walt, here is the chimp war link.
Let us know if you plan to intervene
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/two-hundred-chimpanzees-are-embroiled-in-a-civil-war/?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us
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I don’t know where you guys get primate and earthquake news, I just rely on HHR.
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yeah, he has recovered some after starting +2 for the day, having bogeyed a couple of holes.
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I would vote for Gavin Newsome before I would vote for Tucker Carlson.
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Scottie just drove it into the water, another bogey. But still hanging in there.
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Jonathan Turley
MS NOW’s Stephanie Ruhle actually praised Iran for “the fact that they have a deep belief in something. That’s unfathomable to [Trump]. That they will die for.” Of course, she was not referring to the tens of thousands of protesters executed by the regime for their deep beliefs.”
I think the Nazis “believed in something” too.
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Interesting
“Trump won 2,589 counties in each of the past three elections. From 2020 to 2025, those counties gained 5.4 million people due to net migration — which measures how many people move into and out of an area. The 433 counties where Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris carried the day saw a net loss of 5.43 million people.
And the 121 counties in which Trump won at least one of the past three elections saw a net gain of 29,000 people over those years.”
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Interesting political stats. Where were they gleaned from?
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https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/04/08/5-4-million-people-have-migrated-to-pro-trump-counties-since-2020-as-the-great-divorce-continues/
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Something needed to be done to stop Iran from gaining nukes as well as spreading chaos throughout the middle east. He was the first president to attempt to do something about it, but he stopped short. Big mistake. As much as it pains me to say so, Trump is being played with this so called “ceasefire”. His assertion that we have obtained regime change is nonsense. Hardliners are clearly still running the show – just the names have changed. The strait was supposed to be opened up as a condition for the ceasefire and it is clearly not. The Iranians are liars and cheats and always will be. Same old playbook. Play for time and delay, delay, delay. Have we not learned anything?
Finish them and quit playing their game.
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It seems the mullahs have lost power but the police state has gained power.
This is not regime change. But the IRGC is a lot more unpopular than even the mullahs.
It’s going to take a lot of money and sacrifice by the citizens for Iran to rebuild its influence and military. The seeds are planted for regime change.
What can’t be allowed is for Iran to charge tolls or escape sanctions that restricts its oil sales.
I think the main gain so far besides decimating Iran’s military/industrial sector is the realization by the Gulf States and Saudis that Iran is indeed their enemy, not Israel.
These countries also now understand that without US support, they are very vulnerable.
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The Iranians are liars and cheats and always will be.”
I guess you disagree with Michael Moore that they are a “great civilization”
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Its a “great civilization” to the far left, because that is exactly what they want to do here. They want absolute power, and then they will use it to eliminate people like us. Its already started with Biden’s weaponization of the legal system. Wait until they get back into power when they will weaponize health care, and weaponize the economy, employment, everything. You either become far left, or you will be eliminated. They will use the classic Soviet tactic of making 100% of the citizens technical criminals, so they can then persecute whoever they want.
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what’s the projected cut at the Masters, +3?
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I know a Marxist will probably win in CA, but I really hope its not this scumbag.
And this woman better get ready, the MSM is about to make her into a MAGA whore in 3,2,1 …
https://redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2026/04/10/former-staffer-accuses-eric-swalwell-of-sexual-assault-n2201172
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Yes, +3
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I like Patrick Reed’s chances. Scottie too many mistakes today.
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A lot will probably change tomorrow. If Scottie is within 4 or 5 by the end of the day, he has a chance on Sunday.
Reed is playing well, bogey free today. Well, he has like 5 feet on 18, don’t want to jinx him
But anyone even or better could still win.
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Like Cameron Young.
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Pretty clear.
“We’re going to find out in about 24 hours. We’re going to know soon,” Trump said in a phone interview when asked if he thought the talks would be successful.
“We have a reset going. We’re loading up the ships with the best ammunition, the best weapons ever made — even better than what we did previously and we blew them apart,” he said.
“But we’re loading up the ships. We’re loading up the ships with the best weapons ever made, even at a higher level than we use to do a complete decimation.
“And if we don’t have a deal, we will be using them, and we will be using them very effectively.” [….]
“You’re dealing against people that we don’t know whether or not they tell the truth,” Trump told The Post.
“To our face, they’re getting rid of all nuclear weapons, everything’s gone. And then they go out to the press and say, ‘No, we’d like to enrich.’ So we’ll find out.”
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I think part of this cease fire is exactly that. The US ships were probably running out of munitions.
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This woman is lucky that Swallwell has a lot of rivals in the Dem party.
If he was already the nominee, different story.
So maybe she won’t be crucified after all
“Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign for governor was reeling Friday after an ex-staffer accused him of sexual assault, with multiple staffers resigning and both a prominent ally and rival candidates calling on the California Democrat to exit the race.
The exodus, which began just before the San Francisco Chronicle published a report detailing a former staffer’s claims, jolted California’s marquee race just weeks before ballots start landing in voters’ mailboxes. The former staffer told the newspaper that Swalwell had sexual encounters with her while working for him, and that he sexually assaulted her twice when she was too drunk to consent.”
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Steyer the new favorite on Polymarket.
72% odds Swallwell drops out.
Good.
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Is Jason coming to Philadelphia for the World Cup?
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Steyer is a billionaire Marxist like Soros.
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Tickets are very expensive. I am trying to see if you can bring a llama as a service animal.
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I jinxed Reed.
Mcilroy with 5 shot lead. Lucky pitch went in.
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Rep. Jimmy Gomez, a longtime friend and early endorser of Swalwell’s campaign for Governor, leaves the campaign and encourages him to drop out of the race.”
I hope he stays in, of course.
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Ghana vs. Croatia, cheapest ticket is $723
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https://news.delaware.gov/2026/02/12/delaware-tourism-announces-world-cup-2026-partnership-plans/
You can go to watch parties in Delaware.
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https://phillyfwc26.com/fifa-fan-fest
Llamas welcome during Peru matches.
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https://www.discoverlancaster.com/events/official-world-cup-watch-party/
Lancaster watch parties.
Even though Jason wants me to shoot myself AND I hate soccer, I am looking out for him.
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Thanks, I might attend some of those parties.
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Michelob Beer Garden sounds ok.
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Even though Jason wants me to shoot myself”
Ma, the fish are trying to bait us!
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Thinking of applying for a vendor license to serve grilled guinea pig and deep fried scrapple.
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Alas, neither Chile or Peru made it to the World Cup.
Both Iran and Iraq qualified.
Imagine that as the final
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I might have to root for Cabo Verde.
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Probably 5000 to 1.
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Gallego 3 days ago:
Just three days earlier on April 7, Gallego replied to a social media account that had claimed multiple women accused Swalwell of sexual misconduct, implying that the poster wasn’t trustworthy.
In another post on the same day, Gallego exhibited his continued support for Swalwell.
“When you are in first place, is when they target you,” he wrote. “Eric is a fighter and he will win the Governors race.”
Gallego today:
“What is described is indefensible,” Gallego said in a Friday afternoon statement. “Women who come forward with accounts like this deserve to be heard with respect, not questioned or dismissed. I regret having come to his defense on social media prior to knowing all the information. I am equally as shocked and upset about what has transpired.”
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Good. This scumbag came up with the 40 year old bogus sexual harassment case against Roy Moore, which cost him a senate seat in Alabama.
Don’t get me wrong, Roy Moore was a moron who didn’t respect the Constitution and was twice impeached as Alabama SC justice and should have been nowhere near the Senate. But I said at the time nobody should have their career ended by completely uncorroborated 40 year old accusations.
“Washington Post journalist Thomas Pham LeGro has pleaded GUILTY to possession of child pornography in DC. FBI agents executed a search warrant at his residence and seized several electronic devices. During the execution of the warrant, agents observed what appeared to be fractured pieces of a hard drive hidden under a rug in the basement of the residence. After looking at LeGros’ laptop they found a folder that contained 11 videos depicting children being r*ped. These videos depicted adult men s*xually abusing prepubescent children and forcing them to engage in s*x acts.”
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This guy was Amoral Scumbag’s hero.
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Btw, I have a new theory about Amoral Scumbag.
I think this was his last post:
Robbie
November 21, 2023 at 9:58 am
Jason fraud claims to be for DeSantis and even said DeSantis’ strategy of only saying nice things about Trump while Trump kicked him in the nuts every day and led to a 50-point deficit was the perfect strategy, but he only gets enraged anytime anyone says anything negative about conman Donnie.
Jason fraud is playing the same game Tinfoil played in 2016. She claimed to be for Kasich, but always made fun of him and never said a bad word about her man “T” as she called him back then. I think she knows refers to Trump as her Fuhrer now. That’s what the fraud is doing now. He pretends to be for DeSantis, but only gets agitated when anyone is a meany to poor Mr. Trump.”
Maybe he didn’t die. He was massively invested in the idea that Trump was poison to the R party. Around the time he disappeared it was becoming clear Trump would be the nominee again. He probably intended to come back on election day 2024 and give us the “I told you so”.
I don’t think he could live with the humiliation here.
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Jeffries think Swalwell is not fit to be an “elected official”
But he is ok for Congress.
https://x.com/RepJeffries/status/2042762096769646898/photo/1
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The Dems had to get rid of at least one “front runner” in CA.
Maybe they figured out how to do it.
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No wonder Iran wants Lebanon included in the ceasefire.
“Within a minute, the IDF eliminated 180+ Hezbollah terrorists in 3 areas simultaneously in a large-scale strike based on precise and high-quality intelligence. ~100 targets were struck simultaneously across Beirut, the Beqaa, and southern Lebanon, including main command centers, military structures used by Hezbollah commanders and multiple terror infrastructure sites used by top Hezbollah operatives.”
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Nobody here, so I guess I will re-read my own posts and bask in the brilliance of them.
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I confirmed that it is legal to own a llama in Pennsylvania
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This is news? There are over 13,000 registered alpacas in PA, llamas are fewer but there is still a lot of them.
https://www.facebook.com/LuckyUsFarm/
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LuckyUsFarm has a llama lounge.
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Swalwell wants to thread the needle. This statement means he has to admit to the affairs but is going to claim they were consensual.
I don’t think it will work but I would love for him to stay in, ballots will be mailed out May 4.
“Swalwell posted a video response on social media Friday night, and it was a disaster from the opening sentence. “A lot has been said about me today through anonymous allegations,” he said, looking directly into the camera. There’s just one problem with that framing — the allegations aren’t all anonymous. Some women have publicly identified themselves. That’s not a technicality. That’s a lie, and it’s the first thing out of his mouth.
He continued, “These allegations of sexual assault are flat false. They are absolutely false. They did not happen. They have never happened, and I will fight them with everything that I have.”
Related: Eric Swalwell’s Political Future is Collapsing Fast
But then came the part that should haunt him: “I do not suggest to you in any way that I’m perfect or that I’m a saint. I have certainly made mistakes in judgment in my past, but those mistakes are between me and my wife, and to her, I apologize deeply for putting her in this position.”
He denied the assaults. Then, in the very next breath, he apologized to his wife for “mistakes in judgment” and begged the audience not to doubt him.”
In other words, he fooled around with the staffers, but did not assault them. Good luck.
Pelosi, Queen of the Dems, has called for him to resign. Bigger fish than him, Joe Biden, did not survive.
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🌍 Global M6+ Earthquake Activity Has Stopped Since April 4 🌍There have been no earthquakes above magnitude 6.0 recorded worldwide since April 4.That is now several days without a single major seismic release anywhere on Earth.Under normal conditions, multiple M6+ events occur every week across active fault zones.Right now, that pattern has completely paused.Smaller quakes continue, but larger energy releases are absent.This kind of gap stands out.All major fault systems are still under load. When larger events pause like this, the energy does not disappear.Is this just a natural lull, or is stress building across multiple fault systems?Worth watching closely over the coming days.#Earthquakes #SeismicActivity #Geology #EarthScience #GlobalWatch
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13,000+ registered llamas in PA.
they really need to clean up the voter rolls…
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I bet a lot of them would vote for Fernando Llamas.
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Has Gloria AllRed been hired yet?
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13,000+ registered llamas in PA.
they really need to clean up the voter rolls…”
Shhhh…. most are Republicans.
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Pelosi, Queen of the Dems, has called for him to resign”
Huh, drop out.
He is not good enough for CA gov, but perfectly ok for Congress.
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Ok
https://x.com/redsteeze/status/2042813095840776437/photo/1
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Rumor is Fang Fang is really pissed Swalwell cheated on her and the CCP will be issuing a statement soon denouncing him.
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LOL
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It is illegal to marry a llama in PA.
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Another good call by POTUS:
”“Diego Garcia, a strategically placed island base, has enabled U.S. power throughout the Indian Ocean region, directly supporting and engaging in strike missions today in Iran, and during the Global War on Terror in Afghanistan,” Brent Sadler, a 26-year Navy veteran and senior research fellow at Heritage, told The Daily Signal.
“Loss of this base or compromising its operational viability through Chinese (or other powers’) encroachment on it would be a severe blow to U.S. and Western influence and power projection in the region not easily replaced.”
Gardiner credited Trump’s opposition for the bill’s defeat, saying Trump was the “key reason” behind it.
“The United States has stopped the Chagos surrender deal from moving forward and this is great news for the American people, and also, frankly, for the British people, as well,” he said”
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link for above post.
https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/04/10/humiliating-defeat-uk-prime-minister-pulls-deal-sacrifice-islands-housing-key-us-military-base/
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Adam Schiff has not only called for Swalwell to get out of the governor’s race but also to resign from Congress. I guess they’re not BFFs.
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From Breitbart:
”The upcoming June 2 California gubernatorial primary is not like other primaries. Instead of one Democrat primary winner and one Republican primary winner facing off in the general election, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election… regardless of party. Now go and look at the polls. As you can see, there’s a very real chance two Republicans could win the primary, which would ensure a Republican becomes governor of California.
The media and Democrats cannot allow that possibility, so it’s been decided that Swalwell must be sacrificed. His sacrifice will break the three-way tie between the three top Democrats — Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer — and once Swalwell’s 15 percent support moves to the other two, one or both is certain to go on to compete in the general election, which practically ensures Democrats hold onto California’s governor’s seat.
You see, if Swalwell were polling at 30 percent instead of his current 15 percent, the media cover-up of these allegations would continue because no one would be sweating a Republican sneaking into victory.
But he’s not polling at 30 percent. Early voting begins in a few weeks, and the media knew something ruthless had to be immediately done to protect Democrats, so the media chose to slit their pal’s throat.
Yeah, there’s no small amount of satisfaction in watching this appalling excuse for a human being get his. Trust me, though, this takedown of Swalwell has nothing to do with justice, truth, or protecting women.”
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GFY, Janzam
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in return, wish you a good weekend, Paul.
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JayTC53
·
3h
“Iran is winning” is the new “I just got my 4th Covid Booster”
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I apologize, janzam. I was being an idiotic asshole for no particular reason at all.
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I was being an idiotic asshole for no particular reason at all.
This is why Paul’s A-hole application has been in deferred status for years.
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Talks failed. Of course they did. Finish it Mr. President. Kill them. Kill them all. Quit screwing around.
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Orban will likely lose today. Why is Trump setting Vance up for failures in Hungary and Iran?
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Paul, we all have some bad “hair” days. Thanks for your apology.
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Any news on anthing?
I hear the ChiCOms are jumping in to provide “assistance” to the Iran Klingons with intel and shoulder fired manpads to kill American soldiers .
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Thank you, janzam. Your post yesterday on California actually was reasonably possible. I was being an idiot all on my own unrelated to you or your post.
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I might be moving to the UK soon.
GFYs
“llegal migrants would be granted an amnesty under plans drawn up by the Green Party.
Internal documents seen by the Daily Mail state that “immigration is not a criminal offence under any circumstances”.
Migrants would be allowed to stay in Britain even if they had made failed asylum claims and immigration detention would be abolished if Zack Polanksi’s party wins the next election.
New arrivals would also be allowed to use the NHS on day one after arriving in Britain and be paid a wage without being required to work.
Anyone with a visa other than a tourist visa would also be allowed to work under the plans”.
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He doesn’t have any facts but Swalwell should not be Governor.
CNN: “Do you think [Eric Swalwell] should resign from Congress or face expulsion.” WARNER: “I have seen the reports…if any of these reports are true he should at least no longer be a candidate for Governor. But again I don’t know any of the facts.”
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How big of a tariff will Trump put on Hungary now that they voted against Orban?
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Marxist “journalist” confesses what we all knew
Steven Tavares
@eastbaycitizen
I’ve covered Eric Swawell since he was a member of the Dublin City Council. Shortly after being elected to Congress in 2013, his behavior towards women was known by all levels of our local government and the Alameda County Democratic Party.”
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The guy that won is actually an Orban light….
A conservative and former Orban loyalist.
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Yes, he’s a conservative. That’s cool. But, more importantly, he is much less of a Putin cheerleader.
And if he is the same as Orban, why’d Trump and Vance throw so much behind loser Orban.
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Orbans loss is a much bigger blow to Russia than it is to Trump.
Orban has been vetoing sanctions on Russia and refuses to aid Ukraine.
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I didn’t say he was the same as Orban. I said he is Orban light.
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Damm, Paul is right.
Trump just imposed a 50% tariff on Hungarian goulash.
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There goes our weekly goulash night.
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As long as the paprikash is still tariff free I can live with it.
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Master’s is a slugfest, about 6 guys can win.
I can only win if Young or Schaufelle win.
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Also hands off the Hungarian Salami.
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Ok, that was the gayest post of the day.
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LOL, good point
Did his lawyer say hey Eric, give me a list of the women you assaulted so I can send out the letters?
“I just want to make one final point tonight. A number of women received cease-and-desist letters from Eric Swalwell. My wife did not. Every woman involved, except my wife who went on the record, has remained anonymous. So here’s the question no one can ignore: how did he know who to send those letters to if they were anonymous?”
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Morikawa 5 birdies in a row.
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Trump values loyalty to a fault. Orban was vocally supportive of Trump since the beginning of Trump’s first term, hence the unconditional backing in reciprocation. I wouldn’t have done it in case Magyar won, but I understand it.
Good thing is that Magyar will still tell the western Euros to pound sand on infesting Hungary with illegal aliens.
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Scottie lost the masters on Friday
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I hope Magyar takes a tougher stand against Russia and stops vetoing steps to help Ukraine.
Those were my main problems with Orban.
I don’t think he will be a Euro lapdog because I don’t think that is what Hungarians want.
They were tired of Orban, but his nationalistic ideas still have a lot of support.
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He rimmed out a couple putts today that would have given him at least a playoff.
Rose threw it away by missing an easy eagle putt and then not making the putt coming back.
Henley missed some easy putts.
Everyone cooperated to give McIlroy the win, he didn’t really play that great. Got lucky yesterday with a very improbably chip, he would miss 99 out of 100 from there.
I came close with Cam Young to winning some good money.
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The guy who really threw away the tournament was Rose, geezus.
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Most ridiculous tweet of the day:
Elon Musk: Soros Organization has taken over Hungary
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I was nervous about my top ten for Scotty bet after his 74 on Friday – then he came back and damned near won the whole thing.
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Like I said, Orban light…unfortunately as it relates to Russian and Ukraine.
“Péter Magyar is not the anti-Orbán. He is running on a platform that is Orbán without the corruption. As Orban, Magyar opposes the EU migration pact. He voted against the loan to Ukraine. He wants strong borders and has no plans to reverse Hungary’s energy ties with Russia before 2035. On every substantive question that defines the European left-right divide, Magyar sits exactly where Orbán sits. What he promises to change is governance, not ideology. Anti-corruption reforms, rule of law, meritocratic appointments, unlocking frozen EU funds. A voter who backed Orbán for border security and national sovereignty can vote for Magyar without abandoning a single conviction. The only thing that voter has to abandon is tolerance for theft. Orbán did not lose the argument. He lost the trust.”
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I thought Rose was going to win after that shot from the trees on on #7. I will give Rory credit that he didn’t fully implode after the double bogey and bogey on #4 and #6.
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Yeah, he kept it together but at that point the field just fell apart and let him back in.
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“I am suspending my campaign for Governor. To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”
He is suspending his campaign due to false allegations
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Also the allegations are serious…and false.
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Seriously fake allegations?
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New Thread
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