New Book:

2026 House Forecast

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Democrat +9213222

2026 Senate Forecast

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***There are no “freepassers” here***

New thread. New week.

62 responses to “New thread. New week.”

  1. i didn’t start this one so can try for the first

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  2. C’mon, Vic! Get on it, man…..

    Chicon

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  3. Upgraded to move some of the states where it appears pollsters have given up or they are not really battlegrounds (OH, FL, IA, CO, NM, and NH) into a new grid of other states. Will start filling in the polls for other states like CA, NY, etc as these are sometimes helpful to see.

    Then if a state becomes competitive, it will be moved to the battleground grid.

    Feedback appreciated

    Like

  4. Brutal numbers for Dems from the Wall Street journal

    Trump 47 / Biden 45

    Trump 40, Biden 35, Kennedy 9, West 2, Stein 1, Mapstead 1

    Biden Job approval: Approve 38, Disapprove 60

    Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 46, Democrats 42

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  5. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Walt has good stories about his baseball “career”.

    But I am more interested in his participation in the first Olympic Games in 684 BC.

    Like

  6. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    That NYT/Siena Poll from yesterday has some more bad news for Biden.

    Too old to be an effective President.

    Biden

    Strongly Agree 47%

    Somewhat Agree 26%

    Somewhat Disagree 14%

    Strongly Disagree 11%

    That is a 73/25 split agree/disagree

    Trump

    Strongly Agree 21%

    Somewhat Agree 21%

    Somewhat Disagree 23%

    Strongly DIsagree 32%

    42/55% split agree/disagree

    Stark numbers, not even close.

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  7. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Only 11% of Americans in a NYT poll strongly disagree Biden is too old.

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  8. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Of course, he is actually not too old. Konrad Adenauer was Chancellor of Germany to age 87 and showed no cognitive decline.

    I know people in their 90’s who are more lucid than Biden. Conversely i know people in their 60’s worse off than he is.

    The problem is he has cognitive decline, not his age per se.

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  9. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Sounds good DW, appreciate your contribution.

    Like

  10. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Joe Scarborough

    “Despite his age, Joe Biden is almost certainly the strongest possible candidate Democrats can field against Donald Trump in 2024.”

    He may actually be right.

    The Dems have no bench. I doubt Kamala or Newsome or Whitmer would do better, they all have serious negatives.

    If the Dem establishment thought they had a better candidate, I think Biden would be gone by now.

    The movement to replace him, and there is obviously such a movement, has no credible replacement candidate.

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  11. they will go with a dark horse candidate… someone they can mold into the shape of what their focus groups say they want

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  12. DW, where can I find all the polling information? Thanks.

    Chicon

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  13. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    they will go with a dark horse candidate… someone they can mold into the shape of what their focus groups say they want”

    Risky. And what focus group would that be. One that reflects the far left Dem primary vote base or one that reflects the electorate at large?

    Those would be two very different dark horses.

    Therein lies the problem. Any candidate acceptable to to the Dem base will have little appeal outside of it.

    Biden is actually the only one that has that appeal, or did, with his fake “Scranton blue collar” connection.

    They need a non-Jewish Shapiro. They don’t really have one.

    If Biden is ousted, it will probably be a Kamala-Newsome ticket because if Kamala insists on being the heir they won’t be able to throw her out too.

    And that is a weak ticket.

    I think the odds of Biden being the nominee are still over 50%.

    The betting sites think it is 76%..

    Liked by 1 person

  14. If Democrats stick by Biden, and it seems they are determined to do so, their strategy is simple. Get a Trump conviction before the election. Boils down to that. Could it possibly be any clearer? It’s why the absolute meltdown on the left when the Supreme Court took up the immunity claim by Trump.

    Hack Smith asked the Court to do just that, but he wanted it done in December for obvious reasons.

    It’s all about the timeline for Democrats. Justice and due process be damned.

    Looks like a trial won’t begin until September at the earliest. The problem with that is obtaining a guilty verdict right up against the election looks blatantly shady and unfair to even the most casual voter. In fact, it smells to high heaven.

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  15. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Yep, but it is no longer a given a conviction will doom Trump, the polls are changing on that issue.

    The more partisan the prosecution seems to be, and the closer to the election the trial happens, the more people will view it as election interference.

    The “oh, you want to vote for Trump, well, we will convict him of something, will that change your mind”

    The answer might be no.

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  16. chicon, I haven’t finished it yet

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  17. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    The Dems are banking on demonizing Trump.

    But THIS is their real problem.

    This woman is right.

    https://x.com/RealMattCouch/status/1763949805645046005?s=20

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  18. Yup, she is right. It’s not about Gaza. It’s the economy, inflation, uaw jobs gone (Ccp -Mexico), and illegals.

    Income from lower and middle classs people have fallen the most. 

    -Tina

    Like

  19. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Funny how the British media reports things.

    Thomas Kingston, a member of the Royal Family, was found dead inside a locked outbuilding on his parent’s property.

    According to the inquest, he died of a “catastrophic head injury” and that “a gun was present at the scene”. Nowhere in the report is the word suicide used or anything about Kingston what obviously happened, he shot himself. It is described as a “tragic incident”

    Lady Gabriella Windsor and Thomas Kingston were married in 2019
    Lady Gabriella Windsor and Thomas Kingston were married in 2019 Credit: Alexandra Diez de Rivera/PA

    “Thomas Kingston, the husband of Lady Gabriella Windsor, was found dead at his parents’ home with a “catastrophic head injury” and a gun close to his body, a coroner has said.

    Kingston, 45, died at the property in a Cotswold village on Sunday.

    Katy Skerrett, the senior coroner for Gloucestershire, said the financier, who was the son-in-law of Prince and Princess Michael of Kent, had lunch with his parents before his body was found in an outbuilding.

    She said a post-mortem had been undertaken and that a provisional cause of death had been given as a “traumatic wound to head”.

    As she opened an inquest into Kingston’s death, Ms Skerrett said she had been given evidence of the brief circumstances surrounding “this tragic incident”.

    She said: “Mr Kingston was visiting his parents home in the Cotswolds on 25 February. He ate lunch with his parents.

    “His father went out to walk the dogs. On his return, Mr Kingston was not in the house. After approximately 30 minutes, his mother went to look for him.

    “His father forced entry into an outbuilding when he couldn’t gain entry. Mr Kingston was found inside with a catastrophic head injury. A gun was present at the scene.”

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  20. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Nobody knows what kind of demons people have. The estate where he killed himself was worth 3 million pounds. He was a wealthy financier, only 45, good looking guy, part of the Royal Family and all its perks. His wife is 46th in line for the throne, you never know.

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  21. https://www.yahoo.com/news/appeals-court-rules-jan-6-174319471.html

    The enhancement provision inappropriately applied to some J6ers’ sentencing process, to elongate their prison time, was deemed unconstitutional by the DC court. Finally the beginning of justice for a few people. 

    Also, Trump, as well as DeSantis, said they would review charges before giving any pardons. In the meantime DJT has been helping to defray their legal costs, or so says Julie Kelly, the most knowledgeable journalist about the trials and tribulations of these protestors.

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  22. On the poll at the top of the last thread, maybe it was not FocalData.

    Maybe it was FecalData?

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  23. Hey, sorry I killed the last thread with my head injury stories.

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  24. The true conservative Republican left in the Presidential race says she’s no longer bound by the pledge to endorse Trump. The Country Club Set will still love her.

    Chicon

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  25. Walt – I enjoyed the baseball stories. Thanks for posting them.

    Chicon

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  26. Square profile picture

    @MeetThePress

    NEW: “I don’t know” if Trump would follow the Constitution if elected to a second term, fmr. Amb.

    @NikkiHaley

    says. “When you go and you talk about revenge. When you go and you talk about, you know, vindication. … I don’t know what that means and only he can answer for that.”

    Trump has already said the best revenge would be to have a successful administration. Haley, though, has entered the “the law of diminishing returns” arena with her prolonged, unsuccessful candidacy. All she’s doing is mucking up her opponent’s chance to have funding awarded to a party’s nominee, him having access to national security info., depositing more donor money into her own coffers, showboating on national TV, and crossing her fingers something bad will happen to the opponent people want more than her. 

    And, these traits make a good POTUS?

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  27. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Nothing Nikki You have to feel my pain Haley says about Trump is remotely as bad as what Trump has said about her and her husband.

    Trump stupidly mocked her husband who is currently deployed. He calls her birdbrain.

    So anyone whining about what she says about Trump is being a hypocritical ass.

    Btw, I liked her husband’s response to Trump idiotic remark.

    “The difference between humans and animals? Animals would never allow the dumbest ones to lead the pack.”

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  28. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Btw, she didn’t actually say she would not endorse Trump. She said she will make the decision she wants to make.

    Trump rued the day he attacked John McCain’s military service, it cost him vital support for his policies and may have cost him at least AZ in the 2020 election, and frankly his attack on Nikki’s husband was uncalled for and he should not be surprised if she refuses to endorse him.

    You reap what you sow.

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  29. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    I don’t understand why all the hand wringing about Nikki Haley’s candidacy.

    She is entitled to make her case. So far she is not making it and she is losing every primary and caucus.

    She has zero obligation to anoint Trump the nomination. As long as she has the means to carry on her campaign, what is the problem exactly?

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  30. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    I think Haley is going to get killed on Super Tuesday, her money will dry up, and she will have to drop out for that reason alone.

    But Trump was stupid to keep insulting her and her husband because it was unnecessary, divisive, and self defeating. He was going to win anyway. Because he is a narcissistic ass, he can’t help himself or get over she dared challenge him after saying she wouldn’t.

    Her endorsement would help him among her voters in the GOP, not a small number at least 30% given her showing in the primaries. If she refuses to endorse him, it will cost him votes he might need to win.

    The country club set no longer dominates the R party, and that is a good thing. But there are still enough of them that vote to make a difference in swing states.

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  31. Trump has roundly mocked Haley, questioning her husband’s absence once. In return Haley has exploited that reference to her husband many times, vindictively speculating publicly about Trump’s governing intentions or adherence to the Constitution. In the meantime her bus is booed in Virginia, and she is throwing barbs at anyone supporting her opponent. IMO, she is doing more damage to herself than to her opponent.

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  32. La dem Nikita will run for turd party. She is a pos. Her nbc interview is a debacle.

    trump is doing well by ignoring her. Just look at his showing vs her in yeaterdays contest. 

    She may win the dc contest though. Uniparty has to protect their own. 

    -Tina

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  33. Is Trump still a moron on Ukraine? If so, he still won’t get my primary vote.

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  34. Trump mocked them because they both came to MAL saying that they would not run. 

    She is a vindicative pos.  She won’t get any job offered to her in a trump admin.

    -Tina

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  35. “I was indicted by Fani in Georgia… her lover, Nathan Wade, and they hired him for almost a million dollars because of his great, great experience,” Trump said.

    Trump zinged the two corrupt prosecutors. 

    “He had experience in something else. You know, a lot of experience. And at that, I’m quite sure he was very good based on the fact that she called him 2000 times,” Trump said.

    Tina

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  36. Haley will not run third party. She’s running for 2028 at this point, establishing herself as the runner up and next in line

    she understand she won’t win and is setting herself up for a “hood of the party” moment where she declares unity by supporting Trump in the general election

    both can be true, and are a solid strategy going forward

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  37. I wish there were an edit button. For someo reason my phone always changes good to hood. Wtf

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  38. Bitter is now basically a single-issue voter. When it is Biden v. Trump, which candidate aligns more with Bitter on that issue?

    I read here (a lot), that Ukraine is the most important issue to Bitter. I also read here (a lot) that Bitter will vote for Trump over Biden. How can both be true?

    Chicon

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  39. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    “Trump has roundly mocked Haley, questioning her husband’s absence once.”

    Yeah, when you mock her husband who is deployed overseas serving his country “once”, you deserve to reminded how idiotic that is many time.

    “Haley has exploited that reference to her husband many times,”

    As she well should, don’t you think?

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  40. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Ukraine is very important issue to me too.

    If I thought Trump was really going to support Putin’s annexation of Ukraine, I wouldn’t vote for him. That being said, Haley’s position on Ukraine is a lot better than Trump’s.

    Answering for myself, not for Bitter, I think Biden’s position on Ukraine is more aligned to mine because he is not trying to impose any restrictions on aid to Ukraine. His position is essentially the same as mine, if our objective is to have the Russians defeated (which it should be) then you provide Ukraine with whatever it takes to do that.

    However, I don’t think Trump will allow Ukraine to be enslaved by Russia on his watch. I think he will try to leverage further aid by extracting concessions from both Putin (we will provide more aid to Ukraine if you don’t play ball) and Zelensky (we will provide less aid if you don’t play ball). I worry Trump’s 24 hours miracle plan is essentially based on Ukraine surrendering territory, which I oppose. Nevertheless, I think once elected Trump will pivot to a more favorable position to Ukraine and a tougher stance against Putin. Trump can read the tea leaves right now that his base opposes aid to Ukraine, but he is not going to be the guy that let’s Putin enslave 40 million people while he is President.

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  41. DeSantis and Haley may both be vying for POTUS in 2028. However, it will be RDS who will have positioned himself better with voters. Haley has not only lowered her reputation with her current behavior, but also the odds of even being a competitive challenger for the presidency.

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  42. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    The most recent polls still show Haley as a better candidate for the GOP against Biden, she leads Biden by more than Trump does nationally and in many swing states.

    That is a good reason for her to stay in.

    Feb 7

    “Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s argument that she’d be a stronger general election candidate than former President Donald Trump got a boost on Wednesday from a new poll in a critical swing state.

    A new Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin showed Haley leading Pre”sident Joe Biden by 15 percentage points among likely voters, 57 percent to 42 percent.”

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  43. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Haley has not only lowered her reputation with her current behavior,”

    Zzzzz….what “behavior” exactly?

    The fact she is running against Trump?

    Not that I don’t agree the Golden Calf is a much better candidate for 2028, but there is nothing wrong with Haley’s “behavior” in the campaign. She is entitled to attack Trump just like he attacks her.

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  44. I don’t believe Haley is a better GE candidate than Trump. Her support is soft; his is rock solid.

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  45. Haley has every right to run for President, isn’t really going scorched earth, and is positioning herself for 2028.

    RDS is my preferred candidate but the “establishment” will see him as Trump part deux, which is why Haley will go after the moderate Hogan, suburban mom wing

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  46. Ric Grenell, has even come out saying Haley’s political career is finished. It’s not because she’s opposing Trump, but because she deliberately is throwing monkey wrenches into the efforts of the Republican Party to consolidate their vote, money and efforts around the strongest candidate. She’s basically impeding the Republican Party from winning the 2024 election that everyone here says they want to win, and has become no more than a “dead woman walking” collecting more money along the way.

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  47. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!
    themohel Avatar

    themohel

    March 3, 2024 at 2:50 pm

    I don’t believe Haley is a better GE candidate than Trump. Her support is soft; his is rock solid.”

    Nah, his support is rock solid among his base, but he needs more than that. Her support is stronger among moderate Rs and indies. That is why her endorsement would help Trump.

    If you don’t think she is a better candidate, then the “POLLS ARE WRONG”.

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  48. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Ric Grenell, has even come out saying Haley’s political career is finished”

    Zzzzz…..

    Grenell has endorsed Trump, did Don Jr. say the same thing yet?

    If the GOP wanted to “consolidate their vote, money and efforts around the strongest candidate” they should have nominated the Golden Calf, not Trump.

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  49. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    The Golden Calf is more populist than Haley, that is his advantage.

    The GOP is a populist party now, and traditional and true Republican conservatives like Haley are out of style. While Haley is personally unfit for office in my view, she of all the candidates running would represent the views of the GOP I was attracted to when I first came to America: economic opportunity, personal responsibility, fiscal responsibility, free trade, free enterprise, limited government, strong military and the will to defend American interests anywhere and whenever necessary. Unfortunately, Trump represents very little of that.

    While it is no longer my party and no longer represents my views, I have written many times here that the only way the GOP will survive is if it evolves from a suburban college educated based party to a more populist working class party that attracts voters from all areas including urban and exurban and including blue collar minorities.

    The far left educational system has over the decades transformed the suburbs, especially in large urban areas, to a more ideologically left thinking electorate, and the GOP needs the voters Trump brought to the table in 2016 and 2020. 

    I still vote GOP in general elections by default because I still view it as the best way to slow the steady march to socialism we are experiencing.

    I remember the night MD left he said “I am now a man without a party, since I don’t identify with the Dems or the GOP”.

    I feel the same way.

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  50. Jason. I totally understand and have seen us morph from the party if Reagan, but you are also correct that they are now a populist party where stalwarts and those who were considered “far right conservatives” in 2010 are now rino’s

    in Haley’s case she’s her own worst enemy. She could easily have been positioned as the vp and next online had it not been for her flip floppy nature and need to get an opinion poll to direct her public comments

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  51. SC TO ISSUE CO BALLOT DECISION TOMORROW.

    -Tina

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  52. The polls are measuring today. If she were the nominee, a whole bunch of the Trump populists would stay home. And a bunch of the Biden supporters would go back to him.

    He’s a stronger candidate. Easily. Sue me.

    Chicon

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  53. Trump is ignoring her? Does Trump know that?

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  54. Simple. In a primary, I look for issues where candidates differ. In the General Election, I always vote for the Republican nominee. I love Chicon’s contempt.

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  55. I disagree. Trump is a moron. He won’t stand against Putin.

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  56. have to disagree Bitter. He knows his people won’t hold him to things, hence he doesn’t stay true to the 24hours thing. He’s a pragmatist at times and will not stop supporting the Ukraine. Book it.

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  57. that’s it? Is there another thread or is everyone tired from the weekend

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  58. MD found a home in the Democratic Party.

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