The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

According to new Redfield & Wilton polling, 10/8-10/9: GEORGIA Trump 48 Harris 47 PENNSYLVANIA Trump 48 Harris 46

@Fabrizio_Lee (R) & GBAO (D) for Wall Street Journal 2-WAYMichigan – 🔵 Harris 49-47%Arizona – 🔵 Harris 48-46%Georgia – 🔵 Harris 48-46%Wisconsin – 🟡 Tie 48-48%North Carolina – 🟡 Tie 47-47%Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 47-46%Nevada – 🔴 Trump 49-43%——FULL FIELDArizona – 🔵 Harris 47-45%Michigan – 🔵 Harris 47-45%Georgia – 🔵 Harris 46-45%Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris…

Quinnipiac University, one of the most left-listing pollsters in 2020, out with their much awaited rust-belt polling updates. And the result counters the conventional wisdom that Trump is strong in PA, but struggling in WI and MI. All three states were polled Oct 3-7 against 1,412 Likely Voters in PA, 1,073 in WI and 1,007…

So all you get is this ActiVote poll of Arizona ARIZONA Trump 50.7 Harris 49.3

According to new Insider Advantage polling taken Oct. 7-8 against 800 LV PENNSYLVANIA Trump 49 Harris 47 U.S. Senate: McCormick 45 Casey 47

According to new polling from AARP in AZ, and Research Co in PA, MI, and WI ARIZONA Trump 50 Harris 48 U.S. Senate: Lake 44 Gallego 51 Trump Harris MI 48 51 PA 49 50 WI 48 50

Bullfinch Group steps up with a Harris +4 and Casey +10 poll of Pennsylvania (Sept. 26-29; N=800 RV): PENNSYLVANIA Trump 46 Harris 50 U.S. Senate McCormick 42 Casey 52

No matter how many times its polled…this time Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research Oct. 2-6; 775 LV TEXAS Trump 50 Harris 45

According to the NY Times/Siena FLORIDA Trump 55 Harris 41 TEXAS Trump 50 Harris 44

If you believe Christopher Newport University (Sept. 28-Oct. 4; 800 LV) or Democracy Institute (10/2-10/3; 800 LV) VIRGINIA – CNU Trump 41 Harris 52 VIRGINIA – Democracy Institute Trump 45 Harris 47

New poll of Arizona from RMG Research 9/30-10/02; 783 LV ARIZONA Trump 50 Harris 46

St. Anselm polled New Hampshire, 10/1-10/2; 2,104 LV; 2.1 MoE: NEW HAMPSHIRE Trump 44 Harris 51 Bowling Green State University/YouGov polled Ohio, 9/18 – 9/27; 1,000; LV 3.6 OHIO Trump 51 Harris 44 U.S. Senate: Moreno 45 Brown 49 Tarrance Group polled Nevada, Sept. 16-19; 600LV: NEVADA Trump 44 Harris 47 U.S. Senate: Brown 41…

According to Michigan pollster Mitchell (Sept. 30; 709LV), and NC pollster High Point University (Sept. 20-29; 589 LV) MICHIGAN Trump 49 Harris 48 U.S. Senate: Rogers 44 Slotkin 49 NORTH CAROLINA Trump 48 Harris 48

According to OnMessage for Sentinel Action Fund (super PAC); 9/28-9/29; 800LV PENNSYLVANIA Trump 47 Harris 47 Other 3 U.S. Senate: McCormick 44 Casey 45 Other 5 And here is an update on Virginia early voting, as the GOP leaning districts held firm yesterday, actually gaining another 400 votes cast against the DEM leaning districts:

According to Trafalgar Group, Winthrop University, Cygnal, and McLaughlin MICHIGAN Trump 46.9 Harris 44.7 U.S. Senate Rogers 47.0 Slotkin 47.4 SOUTH CAROLINA Trump 52 Harris 42 IOWA Trump 51.3 Harris 44.6 FLORIDA Trump 51 Harris 46 U.S. Senate Scott 51 Mucarsel-Powell 44

Cook Political polling done 9/19-25 against 2,941 LV Trump Harris Sample AZ 48 50 409 LV GA 49 47 411 LV MI 48 51 416 LV NV 47 48 409 LV NC 49 49 411 LV PA 49 50 474 LV WI 47 49 411 LV

GA: Sept. 25-29 | N=942LV — NC: Sept. 25-29 | N=953LV GEORGIA Trump 50 Harris 44 NORTH CAROLINA Trump 49 Harris 47

Washington Post says Trump up two in NC, taken Sept 25-29 against 1,001 likely voters. AARP says Trump is down two in PA, in a little bit of stale poll taken 9/17-24 against 928 LVs. Finally Rasmussen released Florida data collected Aug. 15-Sept. 29 against 1,243 LV: NORTH CAROLINA Trump 50 Harris 48 PENNSYLVANIA Trump…

According to Rasmussen Reports polling–specifically data they pulled from their national sampling from 8/1-9/29. If I heard it right, it was 600 likely voters per state, or something close to that: NEW JERSEY Trump 43 Harris 52 NEW YORK Trump 43 Harris 54

According to Patriot Polling 9/27-9/29; 816 RV and Embold Research 9/16-9/20; 876 LV PENNSYLVANIA Trump 50 Harris 49 U.S. Senate: McCormick 48 Casey 51 RHODE ISLAND Trump 38 Harris 52

according to a new poll from East Carolina U. This one was taken 9/23 – 9/26 against 1005 LVs. Their prior poll was Trump +1 NORTH CAROLINA Trump 49 Harris 47 Adding here a new poll of Indiana done by ARW Strategies 9/23-9/25; 600 LV: INDIANA Trump 55 Harris 39 And a California poll taken…

According to Trafalgar Group PENNSYLVANIA GE: Trafalgar Group 🟥 Trump: 47.5% (+2.2)🟦 Harris: 45.3%🟪 Other: 2.6%—Senate🟦 Casey (inc): 47.4% (+1.8)🟥 McCormick: 45.6%

From the most accurate pollster in 2020: Trump Harris AZ 49.7 48.6 GA 49.3 49.0 NC 47.3 50.8 NV 47.7 50.6 MI 50.5 46.6 PA 50.6 48.0 WI 49.7 48.2 The hosts were long-winded, and I might not have got the WI numbers right, so I will update this in the morning for accuracy, and…

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: I meant to add this chart yesterday, but time got away from me. Here you can see what the pundits have been crowing about in Virginia. You can also easily see the problem for Republicans in Virginia. There are two swing districts, 2 and 7, but the GOP as a whole has…

Taken Sept 19-22 against 738 LV in Nevada, 993 LV in Minnesota, and 708 LV in New Mexico: Trump Harris 44 50 46 49 49 48 PROGRAMMING NOTE FROM DW: Due to the significant increase in polling that will no doubt continue from now through election day, I will not be able to start a…

Marist polled AZ (9/19 – 9/24; 1264 LV), GA (9/19 – 9/24; 1220 LV), and NC (9/19 – 9/24; 1348 LV). They also polled the rust belt states: Trump Harris 50 49 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 50 47 52 The Hill/Emerson polled TX (9/22 – 9/24; 950 LV) and VA (9/22 –…

According to a new CBS/YouGov taken 9/20-9/24 against 1441 LVs GEORGIA Trump 51 Harris 49