The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +9213222

2026 Senate Forecast

KSIAMEAKMITXMNOHNHNC
Gap+3.9+2.5+2+2+0.5+0.5+0.8+2.8+5+5.5
Count47484950515248474645

***There are no “freepassers” here***

Close in Minnesota

DW

According to Insider Advantage:

MINNESOTA

SENATE
🟥 Tafoya: 45%
🟦 Flanagan: 46%

Insider Advantage – 9/28-29; 1200 LV

This poll is not an outlier. SUSA has the race tied. co/efficient is D+1, and TIPP is D+2.

OHIO

GOVERNOR
🟦 Acton: 47%
🟥 Ramaswamy: 48%
—
SENATE
🟥 Husted (i): 43%
🟦 Brown: 46%

BIG DATA POLL – 9/26-27; 680 LV

—

SENATE
🟥 Husted (i): 44%
🟦 Brown: 47%

Suffolk – 9/23-27; 500 LV

TEXAS

SENATE
🟥 Paxton: 48%
🟦 Talarico: 45%

Pulse Decision Science – 9/24-27; 800 LV

MICHIGAN

SENATE
🟥 Rogers: 44%
🟦 El-Sayed: 51%

Marist – 9/24-27; 1235 RV

Added 10:20 a.m.:

IOWA

SENATE
🟥 Hinsen: 47%
🟦 Turek: 46%

Quantus – 9/28-29; 738 LV

95 responses to “Close in Minnesota”

  1. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Marxist and boris poles are tossed.

    Like

  2. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Close it is…

    Like

  3. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Tina

    September 30, 2026 at 8:28 am

    both free passers hate the idea. No surprise”

    Tina the fake “conservative” wants to send everyone a $5000 check with no means to pay for it without raising taxes or increasing the debt.

    No suprise.

    Like

  4. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    pce came in below expectations. Inflation slowed last month per cnbc and fox biz. Yet, why did the fed stupidly raise rates? They have been political. In 2024, they cut when cpi and pce were much higher.

    Like

  5. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Is this “DW close” or “Jason close”?

    Like

  6. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Tina wants Trump to send $5,000 checks to Dems. Well, he used to donate to their candidates with his own money. Now he wants to use ours.

    Like

  7. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I rather give the $5000 to an illegal, after we grant them amnesty.

    -freepasser

    Bitterlaw’s Note – Another lie by Tina

    Like

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    Wall Street Journal poll found GOP favorability -18, but DEM favorability at -20.

    Like

  9. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Who is paying for this, Tina?

    Like

  10. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    So Tina, what is “conservative” about giving $5000 to everyone when the only way to pay for it is to raise taxes or increase the deficit?

    Asking for a friend.

    Like

  11. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    They are political and that’s a problem.

    @sethjlevy

    ·

    July PCE, which was used to justify the FED rate increase, was actually 2.98 not the 3.4 that was originally announced. This morning August PCE came in better than expected at 3%, beating expectations by 3/10ths. Inflation will continue to beat expectations in 2026.

    Like

  12. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Is this “DW close” or “Jason close”?”

    My definition of close is like 4 points or less.

    Everyone can have their own definition.

    Like

  13. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    The decision by the FED to raise the interest rate was UNANIMOUS even under a Trump appointed chairman.

    Also the only question now is whether there will be one more hike or two before year end.

    However, the probability of an October hike fell from 70% on Monday to 50% yesterday.

    So they might be looking at the data.

    Like

  14. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Issuing everyone a $5000 check is populist demagoguery and would just encourage Dems to do the same thing.

    It is fiscally irresponsible and Tina knows that.

    She just can’t escape the cult mentality.

    Like

  15. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Flanagan throws Walz under the bus in MN.

    GEIST: Do you deserve any responsibility though, Lt Gov, for those fraud schemes that have taken place in your state over the past several years?

    FLANAGAN: The governor says the buck stops with him. More should have been sooner. And I agree.”

    Like

  16. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    We should have a “surprise result” prediction for the election. Not now, but on election eve.

    Depending on the polling, I might pick this race for a surprise. Tafoya is a strong R candidate and Flanagan a weak D candidate.

    Let’s see if that can pull over over the line.

    Like

  17. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Btw, have you noticed that Walz, once the darling of the MSM and present at every Sunday show and quoted in every interview, has now been relegated to the dustbin of history by the MSM?

    Like

  18. DW Avatar
    DW

    But the polls are truly all over the place and in many different ways. Some polls show the GOP doing better in RV samples than LV. Other polls show the reverse. Suffolk showed Ramaswamy down 10 with Husted down only 3, while Baris shows Ramaswamy AHEAD 1, with Husted down 3. In all my years of following this stuff, I have never seen disparity at this level before. Not sure what it means. But wow.

    Like

  19. DW Avatar
    DW

    “FLANAGAN: The governor says the buck stops with him. More should have been sooner. And I agree.”

    You just saw a peek inside Flanagan’s internal polling. Its as bad as SUSA says it is. Or worse.

    Like

  20. DW Avatar
    DW

    Okay, here is one that I didn’t expect. The Bullfinch Group got a well deserved F grade for having a 6.28 point skew to Democrats in their polling. So I saw that they polled California 6 where Kiley, the Republican, is trying to win in an upset by running as an independent.

    All of the toupee carrying prognosticators have this one LIKELY or SAFE DEM.

    So I would expect Bullfinch to tell us that its Kiley 38 / Pan 52 (D+14)

    Instead they have it tied at 37. Not sure why they didn’t press the undecided. Or maybe they did and didn’t like the result.

    Like

  21. DW Avatar
    DW

    just added this one to the thread:

    SENATE
    🟥 Hinsen: 47%
    🟦 Turek: 46%

    Quantus – 9/28-29; 738 LV

    Like

  22. DW Avatar
    DW

    and Quantus pushed the leaners and got this:

    “The narrow gap persists when voters are asked to consider the race in different ways. Including the preferences of initially undecided voters who lean toward a candidate brings Hinson to 48.5 percent and Turek to 46.6 percent. In a separate question naming only the two major-party candidates, Hinson receives 48.9 percent to Turek’s 46.7 percent.”

    Like

  23. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    lol, the slimes are several months behind.

    Like

  24. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    DeItaone

    MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS RECOVER TO PREWAR LEVELS, ANALYSTS SAY

    GOLDMAN ESTIMATES CRUDE EXPORTS FROM PERSIAN GULF PRODUCERS AT 19 MILLION B/D INCREASED HORMUZ EXPORTS DROVE RECOVERY, GOLDMAN SAYS

    JPM ESTIMATES CRUDE EXPORTS HIT 98% OF PREWAR LEVELS

    Like

  25. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    If this keeps up prices will come down.

    They haven’t come down yet because the inventories were depleted.

    Liked by 1 person

  26. DW Avatar
    DW

    exactly jason. those who think it should immediately drop don’t understand the industry.

    Like

  27. DW Avatar
    DW

    Eric Daugherty: A Social Security and SNAP fraudster just busted by the Trump admin was hiding her mother’s body in a FREEZER to steal thousands This is sickening. “She assumed the identity of her mother while her mother was in the freezer. She’s now charged.”

    no big deal…its not like she strangled her mother to death, which itself is no longer a big deal according to jurors in MA.

    Like

  28. DW Avatar
    DW

    the supposedly “non-partisan” running polltracker2024 on X took the time to post this garbage: A Trump ally, quoted by Tara Palmeri. “It’s going to be a tsunami. Total wipe out. Anyone saying we’re going to hold the Senate, that’s not going to happen. They’re delusional. Get ready for impeachment. Everyone needs a lawyer now.”

    A nobody reporting on an unnamed supposed ally. Yeah, there’s credibility for you. “Non-partisan” here is just like saying the Pope is a Protestant.

    Like

  29. DW Avatar
    DW

    OREGON Governor

    🟥 Drazan: 47%
    🟦 Kotek: 46%

    DHM Research – 9/17-27; 915 LV

    Like

  30. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    But telefreako is winning.

    Like

  31. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Female Murderer’s Execution Halted at Last Minute to Take Closer Look at Her Tough Childhood”

    Here we go. SHE is the victim.

    “Tough childhood” now justification for torturing and killing another woman with a box cutter and crushing her skull with a piece of asphalt and keeping “a piece of her skull as a souvenir”.

    Like

  32. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Another “victim” of society.

    “A South Carolina mom, Taylor Gosnell, is accused of stabbing her children over 50 times, according to the police reports.

    “Between the two children, we’re estimating that there were approximately 50 stab wounds,” Graham McLellan with the sheriff’s office said.

    Like

  33. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    We are in recession.

    -freepasser

    https://x.com/AP/status/2105279563790000181

    Like

  34. DW Avatar
    DW

    TX-9

    🟥 Mealer: 45%
    🟦 Gutierrez: 39%

    PPP-D Internal for Gutierrez – 9/18-19

    Like

  35. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  36. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The freepassers loved Jack ass smith.

    * Another lie by Tina.
    Fact check by Bitterlaw

    Like

  37. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Please note that I did not change anything posted. It is just easier to keep my view of her post together with it.

    Like

  38. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Buffoon

    Like

  39. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Why is this fat arse slob mentioning this now? He should stfu. I know he is an open borders/party switcher but still. Do the work and win the midterm

    Like

  40. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    They were sent in to deal with the jay vee team

    @bennyjohnson

    ·

    The Pentagon has announced that the U.S. military has completed the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq at after 12 years and officially ended Operation Inherent Resolve. The departure of forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base marks the conclusion of the mission that defeated ISIS in the region. Finally, some good news out of the Middle East.

    Like

  41. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Cash Cow was scheduled to be a starter on the Berkeley county bovine volleyball team today, but will not play today due to a calf injury.

    Liked by 1 person

  42. DW Avatar
    DW

    TEXAS POLL – Senate

    🟦 James Talarico: 46%
    🟥 Ken Paxton: 45%
    🟨 Ted Brown: 4%

    @Rasmussen_Poll | 9/28-29 | 1,028 LV

    Like

  43. DW Avatar
    DW

    So with a huge migrant caravan planning to rush our border and with a hijacking attempt foiled over the air in Jordan, maybe voters who have favored the GOP on the metric of national and border security will realize that this is an important issue.

    Liked by 1 person

  44. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Jim Justice made Tina’s RINO list?

    No one is safe.

    Ok, maybe the Mother of all RINOs Trump, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

    Like

  45. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    , but will not play today due to a calf injury.”

    I would ask Lupita to fill in, but she normally requires 48 hours notice.

    Like

  46. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Ted Brown is an a-hole.

    He has some conservative positions like free market healthcare, 2nd amendment rights and ending tariffs and promoting international trade (the REAL conservative position), and school choice.

    But he advocates for open borders (end Ice, Ellis island system and “free movement of people”), bring all troops home (surrender), end qualified immunity and police “miltarization” (surrender).

    His immigration policy should attract some leftist votes, I hope:

    • End the immigration police state and abolish ICE
    • No more checkpoints, raids, or family separations
    • Free movement of people across international borders
    • Welcome all foreigners after checking for criminal record and diseases
    • Entry at any international port, not just border towns
    • Work from Day One instead of welfare programs

    Like

  47. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    I think we should have kept the base in Iraq.

    This is the same mistake made in Afghanistan.

    Like

  48. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    The departure of forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base marks the conclusion of the mission that defeated ISIS in the region.”

    Zzzzz…

    The won’t stay defeated for long.

    Trump getting bad advice here from the isolationists.

    Like

  49. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Another brilliant idea from Ted Brown.

    “Require police officers to buy liability insurance”

    Like

  50. DW Avatar
    DW

    For those who wrote off Tom Tiffany in WIsconsin when Fracesca Hong went down in flames….maybe too early:

    Marquette poll | 9/16-9/23 RV

    Wisconsin Governor 2026

    🟦David Crowley 46%
    🟥Tom Tiffany 45%

    Like

  51. Tina Avatar
    Tina
    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/doj-minnesota-judges-complaint.html

    Like

  52. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    EricLDaugh

    🚨 BREAKING: In a stunning announcement, President Trump just revealed the MOST OIL IN HISTORY has come out of the Strait of Hormuz in the past 3 days TRUTH BOMB. Iran and the “experts” are DOWN BAD “In fact, in the last 3 days, more oil has come out of the Hormuz Strait than at any time in the history of the Hormuz Strait.” “I’m not just talking about since the war, I’m saying at any time in history!” The fake news will refuse to report it! This signifies TOTAL AMERICAN CONTROL over Hormuz. Time for gas prices to go down! Flows have been ramping up in recent weeks. Combined with pipelines, Iran has lost their leverage!

    Like

  53. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Zzzzzz…

    Tell Trump oil is a commodity.

    Gas prices will come down once stocks are replenished and refining capacity is at normal levels.

    Like

  54. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    But he is right about the MSM not reporting it.

    Like

  55. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Money to be made on the WI race?

    https://polymarket.com/event/wisconsin-governor-winner-2026

    Like

  56. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Reuters just now:

    “Oil prices rise on stalled US-Iran talks and tight fuel markets”

    Like

  57. GF Avatar
    GF

    DW/Jason, for LVs, it’s a Dem +3 lead (49-46), but very doable if Marquette’s LV model is even slightly off.

    Like

  58. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    WAPO headline

    “Why fuel prices may go higher still”

    Like

  59. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Some factors that weigh on oil (and consequently fuel) prices.

    1. Supply
    2. Demand
    3. Refining capacity/usage
    4. Oil stocks (as in storage)
    5. Future outlook.

    5 is important. So it is not only accounting for let’s say oil flowing through Hormuz TODAY is normal, it is the market expectation that oil will CONTINUE to flow at normal rates and what are the risks that it won’t.

    Oil flowing through Hormuz today will take weeks/months to be processed into fuel. If there is a shortage, prices will reflect that shortage until the fuel is actually available.

    Cheapest gas in my area today is $4.29. Unless it is under say $3.50 by election day, this will hurt Rs up and down the ballot.

    Fair? Maybe not. As DW points out, people voting in Dems because gas prices are too high are cutting their noses to spite their faces. They are voting in people that would make gas $10 a gallon in a nanosecond if they had the power to do so.

    But life isn’t fair. Trump needs to get gas prices down.

    Like

  60. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Et tu, AP?

    “Democrats want a blue wave. New Hampshire is Exhibit A for why that may not happen”

    Like

  61. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Gasoline prices here dropped today from $4.19 to $3.99.

    Like

  62. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Aaa reported a 2.5 cent drop day over day. 4 cents since last week about. Yet, oil is down $15 since it topped at $105 recently.

    Like

  63. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    if I weren’t on fixed income, I would be short ing oil.

    Like

  64. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Oh is not looking so good for thr drats.

    Like

  65. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  66. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Babylon Bee:

    “Breaking news: A plane flying from Dubai to Israel was diverted after an altercation between the pilot and co-pilot, Israeli officials said”

    Nah, it was not the Babylon Bee.

    It is actually The New York Times.

    Like

  67. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    One of the comments on the NYT headline

    “A tall building constructed by Americans disrupts airline flight path.” – if the NYT were to cover 9/11 today

    Like

  68. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    60% of the ballots are being requested by non-affiliated voters.

    We don’t know how they will vote.

    Like

  69. DW Avatar
    DW

    “A tall building that represents corrupt power and wealth disrupts airline flight path.” – if the NYT were to cover 9/11 today

    Fixed it

    Like

  70. DW Avatar
    DW

    New MAINE US SENATE poll

    🔴 Sen. Susan Collins: 48% (+2)
    🔵 Troy Jackson: 46%
    🟡 Unsure: 6%

    co/efficient | 9/28-30 | N=1,240LV

    Like

  71. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    As I’ve said before, I believe Collins holds on. She always runs better than she polls. I just wish I felt the same way about Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska.

    Like

  72. DW Avatar
    DW

    Phil, I think we get Michigan. El-Sayed polled +10 on average in the primary, but held on +1. People apparently are afraid to tell a pollster they don’t plan to vote for El-Sayed. Even if that gap is cut in half Rogers still wins.

    Like

  73. DW Avatar
    DW

    And of course Minnesota is a real race.

    Like

  74. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    If you keep Maine, you can afford to lose 2/4 of the other ones plus NC.

    In my view you really need 51 seats, I think Murkowski going Indy and caucusing with Dems is a risk with 50/50. If that happened you would need Fetterman to do the opposite.

    Like

  75. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Yes, that calculation is only if no Dem seats flip.

    MI, NH and MN are in play. I think 50/50 you get one of those.

    Like

  76. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Jackson seems like a slob.

    The video of him slurping Boba tea was so ridiculous even Sisson whined about it.

    Like

  77. DW Avatar
    DW

    “Jackson seems like a slob.”

    So did Fetterman and he won easily.

    Like

  78. GF Avatar
    GF

    BL, congrats on the Phils tying it up today. Good luck on the back end!

    Like

  79. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    So did Fetterman and he won easily.”

    Touche….

    Like

  80. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    It is funny how the world was ending yesterday but now life is good.

    Like

  81. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @IAPolls2022

    🇺🇸 Senate Polling — co/efficient (R) 🔴 KS — Marshall +5 🔴 IA — Hinson +4 🔴 AK — Sullivan +3 🔴 ME — Collins +2 ⚪️ NH — TIE ⚪️ MI — TIE 🔵 MN — Flanagan +1

    Like

  82. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Horrible polling for the Ds. They are out of $$$ advantage

    Like

  83. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    I hope there is a special place in hell for this despicable scumbag lawyer.

    “She’s not a happy person, obviously,” says Reddington. “She’s living in her own tragic world. It’s constant. She’s a very sad person and understandably so, especially even with the paralysis and her life and what she’s living with. I hate to say it because she is such a kind and wonderful individual, but that’s her life that she’s living.”

    Like

  84. Harry - Radiant Cheesecake Avatar
    Harry – Radiant Cheesecake

    I saw a poll with Bengs beating Rounds in SD by 8 (50 to 42). If that is close, that is shocking.

    The poll shows Bengs getting 32% of Rs.

    InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) / X

    Like

  85. DW Avatar
    DW

    Fox News poll has El-Sayed up only 1

    Like

  86. GF Avatar
    GF

    Harry, that is a Dem poll conducted by Lake Research.

    Like

  87. DW Avatar
    DW

    co/efficient is an A rated pollster

    Like

  88. DW Avatar
    DW

    that Fox News poll is stunning…if El-Sayed only slightly under performs against the polling he loses.

    he fell 9 short of polling in the primary

    Like

  89. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    I bet that hurt..

    https://x.com/belowra/status/2105423411887698030/photo/1

    Like

  90. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Ghandi

    The Seven Social Sins

    • Wealth without work: Gaining riches through speculation, exploitation, or getting something for nothing instead of honest labor.

    • Pleasure without conscience: Pursuing selfish gratification or hedonistic fun without considering moral or social responsibility.

    • Knowledge without character: Acquiring education and intellectual power without moral integrity or internal principles.

    • Commerce without morality: Engaging in business or economic practices that put profit over people and ignore fairness.

    • Science without humanity: Developing technology or pursuing science without a higher human purpose or compassion.

    • Religion without sacrifice: Practicing worship or external rituals without humility, selfless service, or a willingness to help others.

    • Politics without principle: Pursuing power, image, or political status while abandoning a core ethical

    Like

  91. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    GF/John G. – Phillies are the first team to win a MLB playoff game on an ABS challenge that changed a ball to a game ending strike. Of course, it is the first year of ABS challenges in the MLB but still cool.

    Like

  92. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Maine Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson called it “unfortunate” that Jewish residents of Maine reject the labeling of the war in Gaza as a genocide.”

    Like

  93. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Drats are collapsing. +3 in generic

    https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2105634630896603421

    Like

  94. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I wonder if some of these d campaigns are hurting for $$$. This is the month where people start paying attention. Not some fake pokes from the summer.

    Like

  95. DW Avatar
    DW

    Tina, that was a stale poll just released. New Thread

    Like

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