The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +7214221

2026 Senate Forecast

KSIAMEAKMIMNTXOHNHNCGA
Gap+3.9+2.5+2+2+0.5+0.8+1+1.5+4+4.5+5
Count4748495051494847464544

***There are no “freepassers” here***

Monday polling

DW

Today’s Talking Point: Voters are angry about high gas prices. But voters forget that Democrats want to ban gas altogether.

New Hampshire Senate:

Pappas 46
Sununu 42

Trafalgar Group

Texas:

Talarico 47
Paxton 45

Hinojosa 44
Abbott 49

Big Data Poll

Talarico 48
Paxton 48

Hinojosa 45
Abbott 50

Stratus Intelligence

Maine:

Jackson 46
Collins 46

Insider Advantage

Iowa:

Turek 47
Hinson 46

South Carolina:

Andrews 42
Graham Nordone 43

North Carolina:

Cooper 53
Whatley 42

AARP

Michigan

El-Sayed 48
Rogers 44

GBAO-Dem PAC

10 responses to “Monday polling”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First

    Like

  2. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    DW – You are giving voters too much credit. It is like Tina thinking voters will analyze complicated economic data rather than just saying, “What am I paying for gas and diesel? WTF”

    Like

  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    That’s my point Bitter. They will turn to Democrats for lower gas prices even though Democrats want $10 a gallon on the way to banning gasoline for good.

    Like

  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    Curious that the Dem in NY-23, a safe R seat chose to reveal an internal poll showing him down 17 points to the Republican, 52/35. This poll suggests a gap similar to the gap Trump took in that seat in 2024. Hochul is hated across much of New York state, so I think the GOP might do okay in some of those competitive house seats.

    Like

  5. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    EricLDaugh

    ·

    🚨 NOW: Another TEXAS US SENATE poll finds Ken Paxton on the verge of TAKING THE LEAD over James Talarico 🔵 James Talarico: 48% (=) 🔴 Ken Paxton: 48% GOVERNOR 🔴 Greg Abbott: 50% (+5) 🔵 Gina Hinojosa: 45% Stratus (R-aligned) | 9/22-24 | N=965LV

    Like

  6. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    is stratus??? -Boris big data? I really hate seeing all these partisan affiliated poles

    Like

  7. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/09/27/us-news/da-reopens-probe-into-7-cornell-frat-bros-who-allegedly-drugged-gang-raped-student/

    University police are useless. Their job is to cover up crimes. Real police and a real DA need to examine this. Jason to post “Duke Lacrosse case in 3…2…1…”

    Let’s see where the evidence leads. IF this alleged gang rape occurred, those scumbags need to experience gang rape from the recieving end in jail.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    APolls2022

    ·

    2m

    📊 Generic Ballot Poll by Rasmussen 🟦 Democrats: 48% (-1) 🟥 Republicans: 43% (+2) 🟨 Other: 4

    Like

  9. DW Avatar
    DW

    Baris needs to change the name of his polling firm to SMALL DATA POLL. His boast has always been large sample sized, but for Texas he polled just 698 LV. I am not saying the results would be different. But I am saying that his methods seem to be changing and he was exposed as a fraud when he kept polling over and over saying Massie was tied when he was really down 10.

    Stratus is some other pollster

    Liked by 1 person

  10. DW Avatar
    DW

    I hope the Rasmussen is a trend that will be confirmed by the others.

    Like

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