The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +1218217

2026 Senate Forecast

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Gap+4.3+3.3+2.2+1.5+1.6+2.0+6.0+6.2+6.3+7.0
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Pick your Generic Ballot

DW

CNN says its a close race, Dem 45, GOP 42.

Atlas Intel says its a Dem blowout Dem 55, GOP 40.

There are clues that Atlas Intel is out to lunch. Their Dem primary ballot from the same collection:

Harris 13, Newsom 21, Buttigieg 22, Ocasio-Cortez 26, Shapiro 2, Kelly , Pritzker , Beshear , Ossoff , Whitmer 1, Moore 0

And their GOP primary ballot:

Vance 30, Rubio 45, Trump Jr. 0, DeSantis 11, Kennedy Jr. , Carlson , Cruz , Ramaswamy 1, Youngkin , Kemp 0

This indicates that Atlas Intel believes all Trump voters have all been abducted by aliens, and the country as a whole is far left, preferring AOC.

Furthermore, we now have a critical mass of individual house district polls, and they square pretty well against the CNN poll, but make no sense at all against the Atlas Intel polling.

72 responses to “Pick your Generic Ballot”

  1. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Wow…

    Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justice David Wecht has announced that he is leaving the Democratic Party to become an Independent, citing the rampant rise of unchecked ‘Jew Hate’ within the party.”

    Like

  2. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    He will still vote as a lib but at least he called out the party.

    Like

  3. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/11/pennsylvania-supreme-court-antisemitism-democratic-party-00914943

    He is still on the left so he has to talk about right wing anti-semites, too.

    Like

  4. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Baris yesterday says Republicans will lose the Senate. Says Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio are gone. Alaska probably gone and Texas less than 50-50. He says he won’t even bother polling NC. He puts the Democratic over and under at 52 1/2. It was depressing as hell.

    Like

  5. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Right, I am sure he is still a flaming liberal.

    But it does send a message to Jews everywhere the Dem party is not really their friend.

    Of course, there is a significant percentage of Jews who are committed leftists before they are Jews.

    Still, among the 70% + of Jews who vote Dem, there must be some that are concerned with radical anti-semites now rampant in the party.

    Like

  6. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Baris is full of crap.

    I think NC is uphill.

    OH, AK, TX and ME are very winnable for Rs.

    Like

  7. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Plus, not all Dem seats are safe either.

    Rs have a real chance at MI, NH and GA.

    Like

  8. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Now, these things tend to move in tandem.

    If there is really a blue wave, the Dems could win everything.

    But in my view netting 4 seats will be tough. Even winning NC, ME and OH wouldn’t

    be enough.

    Like

  9. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Katie Porter accuses fellow Dem CA gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer of leaking the video of her going psycho on her own staffer, when she yelled: “Get out of my f**king shot!” Porter said she’s confident it was Steyer, after being “told by many people.”

    Who gave it to Steyer?

    Like

  10. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    He says Nebraska, Montana, and Kansas are in play. His underlining point is that it’s a base election and Trump isn’t on the ballot plus Trump has pissed off his base with Iran and affordability. Says the Epstein thing is also killing the GOP also cutting into the Republican base. Republicans relying on country club consultants and it’s going to work about like it did in the Romney campaign in 2012.

    Like

  11. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Says Democrats ceiling is as high as 57 seats.

    Like

  12. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    My son’s response to Jews who claim that they are not anti-Semites but are critical of Israel –

    You know we are all getting put on the same train, right?

    Liked by 2 people

  13. DW Avatar
    DW

    Even Bowling Green State Univ with a 2024 Ohio polling skew of over 4 has Husted up 3 in the OH senate race.

    What Baris is missing here is the fact that independents are not thrilled with Dems. But the larger point is that we now a critical mass of both individual senate polling as well as house seats, and these polls suggest the tighter generic ballot polls are the correct one. It is true that Trump has angered the Ron Paul/anti-war segment of his base, but a large swath of the MAGA base is not isolationist.

    Baris gets in his own little bubble with his buddy Barnes, and they become hyperbolic in their fears. Maine and Ohio are NOT gone. NC is a heavier lift, but even PPP-D has this race within reach.

    Like

  14. GF Avatar
    GF

    Baris was able to tap into the zeitgeist somewhat in 2024, but he was way off in ‘22, it was embarrassing how bad he was that cycle. He’s also a Paulist, anti-Zionist head in the sand isolationist, constantly carping about fighting for Israel (along with the Ras without the Ras guy). He’s smoking hopium that the Dems get to 57 as a punishment for the GOP daring to help out Jewish allies out.

    Gas will not be at $6 by the end of summer, it will probably start dropping before then. Trump has placed some big bets on the table, and some of those are going to come in. Enough to save the house? Maybe not, but if we were going to lose it anyhow, it was worth smacking down Iran.

    Like

  15. DW Avatar
    DW

    And its easy to forget that the Paulist/antisemitic wing of the MAGA movement was never ever truly in favor of Trump, they only viewed Trump as a means to an end…to destroy the GOP so it could then be rebuilt in the image of Ron Paul. They were always going to be a weak expectation to turn out this fall, regardless the conflict in Iran. In my view, this is likely an even trade, loss of the fringe Paulbots, while picking up an equal amount of the leftover Bush pro-war wing of the party. I know some of these personally who have never voted Trump, but now have been awakened and support him because of Iran.

    If Trump can articular a clear path on Iran, and realize lower gas prices this summer, the GOP will be fine this fall and Baris will be embarrassed.

    Like

  16. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I think Dems and the MSM might be overestimating how far left ME voters are.

    Kamala only got about 52% of the vote in ME, is this Nazi guy that more popular than she was?

    Collins has built quite a machine over the years. Last election she was losing in all the polls and ended up winning by 9 pts

    “PP“ortland, ME – According to a new poll conducted by RMG Research, Senator Susan Collins is in danger of losing her seat, and will lose in a landslide if Sara Gideon highlights Collins’ opposition to term limits.

    The poll, which was conducted from July 27-August 2nd, found that Gideon currently leads Collins 48% to 41%. But when voters are asked who they would support if Gideon were to endorse term limits, which Collins opposes, Gideon jumps out to a 16-point lead (50%-34%).”

    and in September 2020

    “A new poll shows Democrat Sara Gideon opening up a large lead in the Maine Senate race over GOP Sen. Susan Collins, a result that diverges from other data showing a close contest as Collins seeks a fifth term this fall.

    Gideon had 54 percent support among likely voters, compared with 42 percent support for Collins, according to the poll.

    Collins’ image in the survey was underwater, with 43 percent of voters viewing her favorably compared to 51 percent who held an unfavorable view of the longtime senator. Gideon had a positive image: 49 percent of voters viewed her favorably compared to 37 percent who had an unfavorable view of the Democrat.

    The double-digit lead is by far the largest Gideon has had in any public survey so far in this race. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Gideon ahead by 4.5 percentage points”

    Like

  17. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Says the Epstein thing is also killing the GOP also cutting into the Republican base.”

    Zzzzz…

    What is exactly the “Epstein thing”.

    Like

  18. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Yes, Barnes was on and was dooming it up.

    Like

  19. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Gideon jumps out to a 16-point lead (50%-34%).”

    Considering she won by 9 this poll was only off by 25 pts!

    Like

  20. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Not sure how the “Epstein thing” damages the GOP since pretty much the only people caught up in it were Dems.

    Like

  21. DW Avatar
    DW

    Isolationists come in all shapes and sizes, but the common thread is a complete ignorance of what is going on in the real world. They want to sit in the corner and suck their thumbs with their eyes closed, hoping that when they open their eyes the world will be all be like the ending of a Disney cartoon fantasy.

    Living in the largest military community in our nation, I have over the years gotten to know numerous people including, an active duty naval commander, a retired marine colonel, a retired green beret, and numerous foreign policy experts and advisors, some of whom could only tell me in loose terms what they do.

    None of these that I have met ever want war, but every one of them has communicated how critical being willing to go to war is for our future safety and prosperity. I wish every isolationist could spend a day talking with each one of these people I have met and known throughout the years.

    Liked by 1 person

  22. DW Avatar
    DW

    jason, the other thing too is the fact that the GOP has a huge war chest ready to be spent. That ad showing the Dems sitting on their hands unwilling to say they work for Americans but instead work for foreigners is a powerful ad.

    Like

  23. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Not sure if this is true or not but it probably won’t help Massie win the primary.

    “Cynthia West EX GIRLFRIEND of Thomas Massie exposes him as a sexual deviant & bribed her with $5,000 cash to stay silent. Massie DM’d her on X in August of 2024 not even 2 months after his wife of 31 years passed away in June 2024. Massie ended up getting her a congressional staffer job in D.C. Massie pressured her to be involved in deviant sexual behavior with him. Cynthia rejected feeling extremely pressured and uncomfortable. When she rejected, Thomas Massie had her fired, bribed her & threatened her not to file a complaint. A complaint was filed in fall of 2025. The same time period when Thomas Massie remarried to a different staffer 20 years younger than Massie.”

    Like

  24. jason yupanqyi Avatar
    jason yupanqyi

    Awwww….. MTG having trouble with her new found “friends”

    When Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez singled out former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene as an “antisemite” and a “bigot” in public remarks Friday, she rattled more than a few cages.

    One of those was Greene herself, who charged Monday that Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., was “very hypocritical” to attack her.”

    A fight between AOC and MTG on who is more anti-semitic?

    Pass the popcorn.

    Like

  25. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    If Trump doesn’t finish this off Iran soon, the mid terms are going to be bad. High gas prices at the pump plus the prices of everything else goes up as a result of oil prices. Democrats running on “affordability”

    Sooo……finish Iran off NOW. Quit dicking around. Quit letting them tool you around with bogus negotiating and stalling. The longer this goes on Trump is blowing it. Why is he so reluctant to clear the strait? I DON’T GET IT. High fuel prices, dummy.

    Like

  26. DW Avatar
    DW

    the “Epstein thing” is something you only hear coming from the mouths of far-leftists who were already voting this fall for the Dems. They throw “pedo” in there in their long lists of absurd grievances against Trump. Never mind that Bill Clinton, a man who knew his way around Epstein’s island, said that Trump had nothing to do with it.

    Like

  27. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Trump better make a decision. Go all in or cut bait. I thought he was all in, but this has gotten ridiculous.

    Like

  28. DW Avatar
    DW

    Phil, I wonder if something is going on like we are building intelligence on the ground and Trump is waiting for a known time in a few days when all the key Iranian leaders are going to be together for a meeting and we will knock them out at once, just like happened that started this. So the back and forth now is all a show.

    Like

  29. jason yupanqyi Avatar
    jason yupanqyi

    I doubt there are many in-person meeting between Iranian leaders.

    Like

  30. DW Avatar
    DW

    I wouldn’t have thought so the first time either jason, but they did and got blown to bits. If they were that stupid once, why not again?

    Like

  31. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    I hope that is the case, DW. I sincerely hoping for that. This sitting back telling yourself that Iran “really wants to make a deal” is delusional. Come on.

    Like

  32. GF Avatar
    GF

    Just destroy Kharg Island, the remaining tankers, and allow their wells to fill with water. Then, maintain an impenetrable blockade, the rest will take care of itself.

    Like

  33. DW Avatar
    DW

    good polling just dropped in the MI senate race:

    Rogers 45, El-Sayed 40

    Rogers 43, McMorrow 41

    Rogers 44 Stevens 42

    Like

  34. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Don’t know what to believe with regard to both CNN and AtlasIntel. As I remember, wasn’t AtlasIntel a very accurate pollster, if not the most accurate in both 2020 and 2024 with a 2.2 average points of error in the 2024 polls.

    That said, I did notice that Trump’s approval recently were at -16 and -17 from both Ras and RMG. I also wonder AtlasIntel is closer to the truth how much is that already ‘baked in cake’ and won’t change come November.

    Like

  35. DW Avatar
    DW

    that was glengariff…but then mitchell just dropped this:

    MIRS/Mitchell Research

    El-Sayed 28, Stevens 18, McMorrow 17

    So it seems El-Sayed will be the opponent.

    Like

  36. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Hubris, complete hubris coming out of Iran…..

    محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf

    @mb_ghalibaf

    There is no alternative but to accept the rights of the Iranian people as laid out in the 14-point proposal. Any other approach will be completely inconclusive; nothing but one failure after another. The longer they drag their feet, the more American taxpayers will pay for it.

    Like

  37. DW Avatar
    DW

    John, Atlas Intel was superb, the gold standard of state polling. But a generic ballot is not the same thing. The fact that they have Rubio leading the 2028 GOP and AOC leading the 2028 Dem primary ballot says they are way off.

    And with statistics you want to have data points from the widest collection possible. If Atlas Intel was right, then no way we are even close in the Michigan senate race. But that race does match well with the many polls showing a much closer generic ballot.

    But like I said earlier, the large number of polls now for individual house seats compares well with a generic ballot that is Dem +3 to Dem +5, not Dem +15.

    Oh and that Atlas Intel was actually BETTER for the GOP compared to their prior poll.

    Like

  38. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    AOC takes the lead in the national pole of Ds for President.

    The racist governor of CA falls to 3rd.

    Like

  39. DW Avatar
    DW

    AOC who wants a national $25 minimum wage that no one would earn because there wouldn’t be any jobs.

    Like

  40. DW Avatar
    DW

    AOC has been consistently getting 8-10 percent of the DEM 2028 primary vote. Suddenly Atlas Intel says she’s getting 26%? No, not buying it. Not even a little bit.

    Don’t care that Atlas Intel was the state polling gold standard. That AOC number is absolute foolishness.

    Like

  41. DW Avatar
    DW

    Senate grid has been updated at the top of the page, with MICHIGAN going into the red side of the chart.

    Like

  42. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Atlas appears to have gotten bad samples.

    Like

  43. DW Avatar
    DW

    Tina, no its not that, they have been showing the same results all year, and in fact this current poll is a tick better for the GOP compared to their last one.

    They are making guesses about the electoral makeup for this fall, and adjusting their polls to match. They see an electorate, not with a reduced MAGA footprint, but without one at all. They see it as a battle between the old Bush/Romney GOP duking it out with a Dem party whose most popular face is AOC. If that’s what you believe will happen, then this poll is good.

    Like

  44. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Another day and the Iranians still have the strait closed down tight.

    I don’t get Trump on this one at all. Why won’t he open it up for crying out loud? Makes no sense! He’s committing political suicide.

    Like

  45. Paul Avatar
    Paul

    txphil1: I assume opening the strait would require a major escallation and involve ground troops. Or am I wrong?

    There is probably concern about escallation and inevitable retaliation against gulf state oil production by Iran.

    Like

  46. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Ground troops? No. Retaliation against gulf state oil production? They would certainly try.

    Like

  47. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    They see an electorate, not with a reduced MAGA footprint…..

    DW, MAGA, however, has been very active lately with the grass roots intervening in Texas for Paxton and VA trying to thwart their redistricting efforts. IMO, there will be a bigger MAGA footprint rather than a smaller one or not one at all.

    Like

  48. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    There was a trickle of a rumor going around that Trump may do something kinetic with Iran during his short visit with Xi, in order to demonstrate the strength of the US. Trump did a similar action when Xi visited him at Mar a Lago, authorizing a missile strike in Syria as Xi was eating chocolate cake.

    Like

  49. DW Avatar
    DW

    janzam makes a good point that the MAGA did show up in Indiana, and they showed up in Virginia to make the Yes/No referendum much closer than expected, despite being outspent eight to one.

    Like

  50. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Hauling Goofball around.

    Ortho Dr. Appt., exam, plus a shot plus tell him his left knee is completely worn out from hauling aroung his extra 250 pounds in his body and that he need to have a knee replacement, then to to bank, then to T-mobile to pay his bill, then McDonalds (since it has been only about 2 house since he has eaten) then to grocery store. Gotta keep that weight up!

    I did tell him(AGAIN) that if he had TMobile bill paid automatically through his bank account it is $5 less per month on his $30 bill. And he again says that is a good idea.

    “The T mobile people suggest that should do that every month I go in to to the store to pay my bill. That is a good idea…I think I might do that.. (he won’t, because he is stupid.).

    Has been 2 hours of my time so far…how long in grocery story????

    Really earning my $10 chaufering fee today…

    Like

  51. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    MizDonna69

    ·

    Replying to

    @sethjlevy

    In AZ you have the McCain-ites In UT you have the Romney- ites. In MS you have the Wicker-ites. Etcetera etcetera My biggest fear is that soon we will have Cornyn-ites in TX

    Like

  52. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Missouri Supreme Court just knocked down Democrat challenge to new congressional map. Means old map of 6-2 now goes to 7-1. R+1

    Like

  53. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Sc “Rs” appear to have done the depends special.

    Like

  54. GF Avatar
    GF

    The Lord giveth and taketh; MO send Cleaver packing, and the RINO/Dixiecrat wing of the GOP aligns with the regular Dems to stop redistricting there.

    Like

  55. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Early WV results

    Capito wins handily . With only 6% in she was declared winner.

    in WV House of Delegates, 9 incumbents are right now running behind..including two good legislators I served with…hope it changes in their favor.

    in WV Senate only 2 incumbent running behind.

    So far. It seems Gov. MORRISEY targeting g certain senate and house incumbents is not paying off for Morrisey.

    Like

  56. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Six of the incumbent R senators Morrisey targeted seem to bedoing well…looks like they will survive but it is early.

    Like

  57. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Berkeley county (where I live ) had a 12.7% turnout.

    probably worst in state. @ 101,000 registered voters.

    @ 12,000 voted.

    Absolutely pitiful.

    Changes this year include —-

    1. required photo ID

    2. No Indys allowed to vote inR primary

    ☆☆☆☆

    Jefferson County Farthest east near DC (just east of Berkeley where Charles Rown, Shepherdstown, and Harpers Ferry are) had 15% turnout.

    —–

    Berkeley Co.

    two incumbent school board members voted out.

    School bond:

    Yes 50.1%

    No 49.9%

    Two incumbent R County commissioners win their primary

    Like

  58. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Walt hasn’t been this locked into an election since 1800 when he voted for cranky Adams over that swishy Jefferson.

    Liked by 1 person

  59. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    WV SUPREME COURT

    I voted for the 2 incumbents

    They both lost

    ######

    WV Intermediate court of appeals.

    I voted for a good guy I knew from Charleston. He lost to a goofball.

    Like

  60. DW Avatar
    DW

    cash cow will have another update on the missing calves tomorrow

    Liked by 1 person

  61. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    –The person I voted for for magistrate lost.

    In 9 person race for 3 seats in school board, I voted for one qho came in 2nd, and for the current school board president who came I. 6th and got voted out.

    –I votes against the $115Mm school bond. It passed by 6317 to 6149.

    Like

  62. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    I guess in Nov. I will just stay home and fir the first time in my life just not vote. Like the .ajority of WV registered voters.

    Like

  63. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Man up and vote, Walt. You haven’t missed an election since you started voting in ancient Athens.

    Liked by 1 person

  64. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Morrissey backed/endorsed 11 Rs in Senate races.

    5 of these were very popular and did win hands down today and were going to win with or without Morrisey’s support.

    of the 6 others:

    3 that Gov. Morrisey supported won and three lost

    4 other incumbe t Rs in contested races won, but Morrisey did not choose to endorse any of the 4 incumbent Rs.

    So mixed bag for Morrisey’s guys.

    AS I PREDICTED. (nice to get one prediction right…oh, and I did LSO predict a low turnout, which is shameful correct.)

    Like

  65. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    In WV House of Delegates there are 15 seats held by Rs that the incumbent is not running. So that will mean 15 new members in House next year.

    PLUS in 11 other House districts the incumbent R lost. So add 11 to the 15 above. Now 26 new members out of 100.

    PLUS, in 3 other races the R incumbents are behind

    If that holds, then add 3 more so you will have 29 out of 100 will be new. That is about what the turnover in House usually is. Somewhere between 26 and 34 out of 100 seats turnover.

    Like

  66. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    One incumbent lost by 2 votes–648 to 646.

    Like

  67. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    One good guy I served with lost 827 to 822.

    FIVE votes.

    Like

  68. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Another incumbent R lost her primary by 4 votes, 686 – 682.

    Like

  69. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    The 2 WV Supreme Court justices who LOST the primary were two who were appointed by Morrisey to fill Vacancy by death of a justice and bt retirement of a justice.

    Like

  70. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Uh oh…. “some experts” are back…

    NBC:

    It has been assumed that hantavirus is contagious only if someone is in close contact with someone who’s having symptoms. Some experts now suggest it’s possible it may be more contagious than thought.”

    Like

  71. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    “some experts” are back…

    NBC:

    It has been assumed that hantavirus is contagious only if someone is in close contact with someone who’s having symptoms. Some experts now suggest it’s possible it may be more contagious than thought.”

    Like

  72. DW Avatar
    DW

    new thread

    Like

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