The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:41.0 / 56.0-15.0
Pollsters right in 2024:45.1 / 53.1-8.0

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +1218217

2026 Senate Forecast

OHTXIAAKMINHMEGANCMN
Gap+4.3+2.2+1.5+1.6+1.8+2.0+6.0+6.2+6.3+7.0
Count48495050494847464544

Pick your Generic Ballot

DW

CNN says its a close race, Dem 45, GOP 42.

Atlas Intel says its a Dem blowout Dem 55, GOP 40.

There are clues that Atlas Intel is out to lunch. Their Dem primary ballot from the same collection:

Harris 13, Newsom 21, Buttigieg 22, Ocasio-Cortez 26, Shapiro 2, Kelly , Pritzker , Beshear , Ossoff , Whitmer 1, Moore 0

And their GOP primary ballot:

Vance 30, Rubio 45, Trump Jr. 0, DeSantis 11, Kennedy Jr. , Carlson , Cruz , Ramaswamy 1, Youngkin , Kemp 0

This indicates that Atlas Intel believes all Trump voters have all been abducted by aliens, and the country as a whole is far left, preferring AOC.

Furthermore, we now have a critical mass of individual house district polls, and they square pretty well against the CNN poll, but make no sense at all against the Atlas Intel polling.

20 responses to “Pick your Generic Ballot”

  1. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Wow…

    Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justice David Wecht has announced that he is leaving the Democratic Party to become an Independent, citing the rampant rise of unchecked ‘Jew Hate’ within the party.”

    Like

  2. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    He will still vote as a lib but at least he called out the party.

    Like

  3. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/11/pennsylvania-supreme-court-antisemitism-democratic-party-00914943

    He is still on the left so he has to talk about right wing anti-semites, too.

    Like

  4. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Baris yesterday says Republicans will lose the Senate. Says Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio are gone. Alaska probably gone and Texas less than 50-50. He says he won’t even bother polling NC. He puts the Democratic over and under at 52 1/2. It was depressing as hell.

    Like

  5. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Right, I am sure he is still a flaming liberal.

    But it does send a message to Jews everywhere the Dem party is not really their friend.

    Of course, there is a significant percentage of Jews who are committed leftists before they are Jews.

    Still, among the 70% + of Jews who vote Dem, there must be some that are concerned with radical anti-semites now rampant in the party.

    Like

  6. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Baris is full of crap.

    I think NC is uphill.

    OH, AK, TX and ME are very winnable for Rs.

    Like

  7. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Plus, not all Dem seats are safe either.

    Rs have a real chance at MI, NH and GA.

    Like

  8. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Now, these things tend to move in tandem.

    If there is really a blue wave, the Dems could win everything.

    But in my view netting 4 seats will be tough. Even winning NC, ME and OH wouldn’t

    be enough.

    Like

  9. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Katie Porter accuses fellow Dem CA gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer of leaking the video of her going psycho on her own staffer, when she yelled: “Get out of my f**king shot!” Porter said she’s confident it was Steyer, after being “told by many people.”

    Who gave it to Steyer?

    Like

  10. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    He says Nebraska, Montana, and Kansas are in play. His underlining point is that it’s a base election and Trump isn’t on the ballot plus Trump has pissed off his base with Iran and affordability. Says the Epstein thing is also killing the GOP also cutting into the Republican base. Republicans relying on country club consultants and it’s going to work about like it did in the Romney campaign in 2012.

    Like

  11. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Says Democrats ceiling is as high as 57 seats.

    Like

  12. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    My son’s response to Jews who claim that they are not anti-Semites but are critical of Israel –

    You know we are all getting put on the same train, right?

    Liked by 2 people

  13. DW Avatar
    DW

    Even Bowling Green State Univ with a 2024 Ohio polling skew of over 4 has Husted up 3 in the OH senate race.

    What Baris is missing here is the fact that independents are not thrilled with Dems. But the larger point is that we now a critical mass of both individual senate polling as well as house seats, and these polls suggest the tighter generic ballot polls are the correct one. It is true that Trump has angered the Ron Paul/anti-war segment of his base, but a large swath of the MAGA base is not isolationist.

    Baris gets in his own little bubble with his buddy Barnes, and they become hyperbolic in their fears. Maine and Ohio are NOT gone. NC is a heavier lift, but even PPP-D has this race within reach.

    Like

  14. GF Avatar
    GF

    Baris was able to tap into the zeitgeist somewhat in 2024, but he was way off in ‘22, it was embarrassing how bad he was that cycle. He’s also a Paulist, anti-Zionist head in the sand isolationist, constantly carping about fighting for Israel (along with the Ras without the Ras guy). He’s smoking hopium that the Dems get to 57 as a punishment for the GOP daring to help out Jewish allies out.

    Gas will not be at $6 by the end of summer, it will probably start dropping before then. Trump has placed some big bets on the table, and some of those are going to come in. Enough to save the house? Maybe not, but if we were going to lose it anyhow, it was worth smacking down Iran.

    Like

  15. DW Avatar
    DW

    And its easy to forget that the Paulist/antisemitic wing of the MAGA movement was never ever truly in favor of Trump, they only viewed Trump as a means to an end…to destroy the GOP so it could then be rebuilt in the image of Ron Paul. They were always going to be a weak expectation to turn out this fall, regardless the conflict in Iran. In my view, this is likely an even trade, loss of the fringe Paulbots, while picking up an equal amount of the leftover Bush pro-war wing of the party. I know some of these personally who have never voted Trump, but now have been awakened and support him because of Iran.

    If Trump can articular a clear path on Iran, and realize lower gas prices this summer, the GOP will be fine this fall and Baris will be embarrassed.

    Like

  16. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I think Dems and the MSM might be overestimating how far left ME voters are.

    Kamala only got about 52% of the vote in ME, is this Nazi guy that more popular than she was?

    Collins has built quite a machine over the years. Last election she was losing in all the polls and ended up winning by 9 pts

    “PP“ortland, ME – According to a new poll conducted by RMG Research, Senator Susan Collins is in danger of losing her seat, and will lose in a landslide if Sara Gideon highlights Collins’ opposition to term limits.

    The poll, which was conducted from July 27-August 2nd, found that Gideon currently leads Collins 48% to 41%. But when voters are asked who they would support if Gideon were to endorse term limits, which Collins opposes, Gideon jumps out to a 16-point lead (50%-34%).”

    and in September 2020

    “A new poll shows Democrat Sara Gideon opening up a large lead in the Maine Senate race over GOP Sen. Susan Collins, a result that diverges from other data showing a close contest as Collins seeks a fifth term this fall.

    Gideon had 54 percent support among likely voters, compared with 42 percent support for Collins, according to the poll.

    Collins’ image in the survey was underwater, with 43 percent of voters viewing her favorably compared to 51 percent who held an unfavorable view of the longtime senator. Gideon had a positive image: 49 percent of voters viewed her favorably compared to 37 percent who had an unfavorable view of the Democrat.

    The double-digit lead is by far the largest Gideon has had in any public survey so far in this race. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Gideon ahead by 4.5 percentage points”

    Like

  17. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Says the Epstein thing is also killing the GOP also cutting into the Republican base.”

    Zzzzz…

    What is exactly the “Epstein thing”.

    Like

  18. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Yes, Barnes was on and was dooming it up.

    Like

  19. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Gideon jumps out to a 16-point lead (50%-34%).”

    Considering she won by 9 this poll was only off by 25 pts!

    Like

  20. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Not sure how the “Epstein thing” damages the GOP since pretty much the only people caught up in it were Dems.

    Like

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