The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

Earlier this year I kept posting an updated red shift / blue shift chart. But when Biden dropped out, there was never enough polling data in uncompetitive states to bring the chart back. Here is the final chart, with some surprises, particularly Massachusetts.

The legacy Aggregators were no match for the HHR’s unique formula for aggregating the polling data into a predictive average for the 2024 election. The chart below compares the results across the 7 battleground states as well as the other two states that finished with a gap less than 5 points.

Two charts have been added to the 2024 polling grades page. The first shows the finalized grades for the pollsters who surveyed at least 5 of the 7 battleground states. Many of these polled repeatedly throughout the year, and were the frequent new thread starters. The Average Miss simply means for each of the states…

I have moved the highly successful 2024 Polling Aggregator off to a historical page so that it can be reviewed any time you wish to see polling prediction averages that were MUCH more accurate than RCP or 538.

The HHR Polling Aggregator left the others far behind: U.S. President – Battleground States AZ NC NV PA GA MI WI NH VA MN NM Res. 5.5 3.3 3.1 1.8 2.2 1.5 0.8 2.8 5.2 4.2 5.7 Gap 4.7 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -4.6 EVs 230 246 252 271 287…

Yesterday McCormick was up 40,040. Right now, the lead is only 29,531 and yet the % remaining in Philly to report does not drop.

Will he survive? Are we watching the early stages of the “Al Franken” theft, 2.0? –DW

The winners did the best job picking the states in the POTUS election as well as the winners in the United States senate. Six contestants picked correctly that Trump would win all seven of the battleground states but no more: DWJanzamoahodgesscooterJohn GogginJeffrey Shaw In the seven battleground states, Jeffrey Shaw was by far the more…

No surprise AtlasIntel was again #1, and is now clearly the GOLD standard of polling. But AtlasIntel is not alone in the collection of pollsters that kept their average miss below 2.0, well within the margin of error. In fact, there are nine who met this standard and should be considered the go-to pollsters in…

If my math is correct, and if in the uncalled races everyone who is currently leading goes on to win, then the new House will be: 223 Republican 212 Democrat Here is the list of uncalled races according to CNN (who is VERY slow to call anything), showing who is currently leading and it it…