The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

According to Carolina Journal/Harper 3/22 – 3/23; 600 LV; 4.0 MoE Cooper 49 Whatley 41

According to Emerson 3/21 – 3/23; 1100 LV; 2.9 MoE US Senate New Hampshire 2026🟦Pappas 45%🟥Sununu 44% Same poll has Collins in trouble in Maine: US Senate Maine 2026🟦Graham Platner 48%🟥Susan Collins 41%

According to St. Anselm poll taken 3/16 – 3/18; 1491 RV; 2.5 MoE. In 2024 they had a B grade with a 2.2 slant to the blue. Sununu (R) 43 Pappas (D) 46 Same poll has significant advantage for Ayotte in Gov race: Ayotte 45, Kiper 31

Berkeley says, yes, maybe: CALIFORNIA POLL – Governor (top two advance) 🟥 Steve Hilton: 17%🟥 Chad Bianco: 16%🟦 Katie Porter: 13%🟦 Eric Swalwell: 13%🟦 Tom Steyer: 10%🟦 Xavier Becerra: 5%🟦 A. Villaraigosa: 4%🟦 Matt Mahan: 4%🟦 Betty Yee: 1%🟦 Thurmond: 1% Berkeley IGS (A) | 3/9-15 | 3,889 LV

According to Quantus Insights: Quantus Insights poll | 3/13-3/14 LV Ohio Governor 2026🟦Amy Acton 45.9%🟥Vivek Ramaswamy 44.9%—US Senate Ohio 2026🟥Jon Husted 45.5% (incumbent)🟦Sherrod Brown 44.4%

But we do have Homer Hedgehog

According to OnMessage (R) SENATE POLL By OnMessage Public Strategies for Insurance Watchdog Coalition MAINE🟦 Graham Platner: 44%🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 42%—🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 42%🟦 Janet Mills: 42%——OHIO🟦 Sherrod Brown: 47%🟥 Jon Husted (inc): 45% 3/3-8 | 600 LV (ME) | 600 LV (OH)

Yes, according to a DEM super PAC who hired PPP-D to do a poll there: PPP poll | 3/4-3/5 US Senate Texas 2026🟦James Talarico 44%🟥John Cornyn 43%—🟦James Talarico 47%🟥Ken Paxton 45% Probably the high water mark for Talarico, the guy who loves trans children and says a baby isn’t a person until she starts breathing,…

Fox News Poll: Deporting immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally back to their home countries? 🟢 Favor: 59%🟤 Oppose: 40%——🟢 Men: 63-36 (+27)🟢 Women: 55-44 (+11) 🟢 College: 57-42 (+15)🟢 No college: 60-39 (+21) 🟤 Dem: 32-67 (-35)🟢 GOP: 88-11 (+77)🟢 Indie: 52-47 (+5) 🟤 Age 18-44: 47-53 (-6)🟢 Age 45+: 66-32 (+34)…

and Ossoff up in Georgia. US Maine Senate 2026🟦Graham Platner 44% (+1)🟥 Susan Collins 40% (-2) Pan Atlantic Research poll – 2/13-3/2; LV Ossoff 48, Collins 43 Ossoff 47, Carter 44 Ossoff 49, Dooley 41 Emerson – 2/28 – 3/2 1000 LV 3.0

Crockett lost her bid to be the Democratic Party candidate for US Senate in Texas.

Paxton seems to have the edge to upset the incumbent Cornyn, while Talarico has the edge over Crockett on the Democrat side.

WAR in IRAN Day 3

According to PPIC CALIFORNIA POLL – Governor (top two advance) 🟥 Steve Hilton: 14%🟦 Katie Porter: 13%🟥 Chad Bianco: 12%🟦 Eric Swalwell: 11%🟦 Tom Steyer: 10%🟦 Xavier Becerra: 5%🟦 A. Villaraigosa: 5%🟦 Betty Yee: 5%🟦 Matt Mahan: 3%🟦 T. Thurmond: 1%🟩 Butch Ware: 2% PPIC (A) | 2/3-11 | 1,049 LV

According to UNH poll: 2/12-2/16; LV US Senate Maine 2026🟦Graham Platner 49%🟥Susan Collins 38%

40% of the country already think the speech was terrible, and 40% already think the speech was tremendous. The key is what the other 20% will think after the speech.

Insider Advantage Trump Job Approval: Approve 50 Disapprove 46

Hart Research (D) did a poll on behalf of Jasmine Crockett and found that she lead Ken Paxton by two: 🟦Jasmine Crockett 48%🟥Ken Paxton 46%

This morning I&I/TIPP has the generic congressional ballot at Dem +3 And then in the battle of experts in word salads and corruption, the same pollster has the 2028 DEM primary currently showing Harris 38, Newsom 13, Buttigieg 5, Ocasio-Cortez 2, Shapiro 4, Kelly 3, Pritzker 3, Booker 0, Beshear 2, Whitmer 2

Saturday night

Change Research (D) gives their opinion of the Iowa Senate race, and it doesn’t matter which of the three Democrats wins the primary, they found identical results: IOWA Hinson 44 Any Dem 41

Emerson has provided the first look at the Minnesota Senate race, 2/6 – 2/8; 1000 RV; 3.0 MoE MINNESOTA Tafoya 41 Flanagan 47 Tafoya 40 Craig 47

University of Houston 1/20 – 1/31; 1502 LV; 2.5 MoE TEXAS Paxton 45 Crockett 43 Same poll has Crockett and Paxton leading their party primaries. (Paxton 38, Cornyn 31, Hunt 17) and (Crockett 47, Talarico 39, Hassan 2)

Weekend Thread

Poll by KSTP/SurveyUSA, 1/27-1/30; 575 RV; 4.6 MoE MINNESOTA Jensen 35 Klobuchar 49

ICE Appreciation Week – Snowy weekend thread

Senate poll by Emerson, 1/24 – 1/25; 1000 RV 3.0 MoE: MICHIGAN Rogers 42 Stevens 47