The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

According to Victory Insights 11/26-11/29; 800 LV NORTH CAROLINA U.S. Senate: Thom Tillis (Inc) 44.1 Roy Cooper 45.1 U.S. Senate: Lara Trump 44.3 Roy Cooper 45.5

Earlier this year I kept posting an updated red shift / blue shift chart. But when Biden dropped out, there was never enough polling data in uncompetitive states to bring the chart back. Here is the final chart, with some surprises, particularly Massachusetts.

The legacy Aggregators were no match for the HHR’s unique formula for aggregating the polling data into a predictive average for the 2024 election. The chart below compares the results across the 7 battleground states as well as the other two states that finished with a gap less than 5 points.

Two charts have been added to the 2024 polling grades page. The first shows the finalized grades for the pollsters who surveyed at least 5 of the 7 battleground states. Many of these polled repeatedly throughout the year, and were the frequent new thread starters. The Average Miss simply means for each of the states…

I have moved the highly successful 2024 Polling Aggregator off to a historical page so that it can be reviewed any time you wish to see polling prediction averages that were MUCH more accurate than RCP or 538.

Yesterday McCormick was up 40,040. Right now, the lead is only 29,531 and yet the % remaining in Philly to report does not drop.

Will he survive? Are we watching the early stages of the “Al Franken” theft, 2.0? –DW