The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

The winners did the best job picking the states in the POTUS election as well as the winners in the United States senate. Six contestants picked correctly that Trump would win all seven of the battleground states but no more: DWJanzamoahodgesscooterJohn GogginJeffrey Shaw In the seven battleground states, Jeffrey Shaw was by far the more…

No surprise AtlasIntel was again #1, and is now clearly the GOLD standard of polling. But AtlasIntel is not alone in the collection of pollsters that kept their average miss below 2.0, well within the margin of error. In fact, there are nine who met this standard and should be considered the go-to pollsters in…

If my math is correct, and if in the uncalled races everyone who is currently leading goes on to win, then the new House will be: 223 Republican 212 Democrat Here is the list of uncalled races according to CNN (who is VERY slow to call anything), showing who is currently leading and it it…

2024 Election polling Grades Please review the new 2024 Polling Grades page linked here and on the main page and look over the format and please make suggestions. This is a work in progress and I cannot fill in many of the pollsters because the final margin is not sure in many states. The first…

Eastern time zones in KY and IN close at 6:00 p.m.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/indiana https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/kentucky

Patriot Polling: FINAL BATTLEGROUND polls 🔴 ARIZONA: Trump+3.5🔴 GEORGIA: Trump+1.8🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump+1.6🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+0.9🔴 NEVADA: Trump+0.1🔵 WISCONSIN: Harris+0.3🔵 MICHIGAN: Harris+0.7 Electoral College:🔴 Trump: 287 🏆🔵 Harris: 251 Patriot Polling | 11/1-3 | RVs ActiVote: FINAL BATTLEGROUND polls 🔴 GEORGIA: Trump+2.2🔴 ARIZONA: Trump+1.8🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump+1.2🔴 MICHIGAN: Trump+0.6🔵 PENNSYLVANIA: Harris+1🔵 WISCONSIN: Harris+1.8 NY Times/Siena: 🔴…

According to Chism Strategies (D) Taken 10/28-10/30 against 520 likely voters: VIRGINIA Trump 45 Harris 45 U.S. Senate: Cao 45 Kaine 46

Trump 50, Harris 47

FINAL VIRGINIA poll 🔵 Harris: 51% (+10)🔴 Trump: 41%🟣 Oliver: 2%🟡 West: 2%🟢 Stein: 1% Last poll: Harris+3 Roanoke College | 10/25-29 | N=851LV FINAL MICHIGAN poll 🔵 Harris: 48% (+3)🔴 Trump: 45%🟡 RFK: 3%🟢 Stein: 3%🟣 West: 1% Final 2020 poll: Biden+7 Favorability:🔴 Trump: 47% (+2)🔵 Harris: 45% EPIC-MRA | Released 11/1 | N=600LV…

If this new Echelon Insights poll is anywhere close to accurate. FINAL PENNSYLVANIA poll 🔴 Trump: 52% (+6)🔵 Harris: 46% Echelon Insights | 10/27-30 | N=600LV

MINNESOTA poll 🔵 Harris: 50% (+3)🔴 Trump: 47%🟢 Other: 2%🟡 Undecided: 2% @Rasmussen_Poll| 10/24-26 | N=959LV NEW HAMPSHIRE poll 🔵 Harris: 48% (+1)🔴 Trump: 47%🟢 Other: 3%🟡 Undecided: 2% @Rasmussen_Poll| 10/24-28 | N=901LV

Their prior poll was Harris +2. And the new one was registered, not likely voters. Their final 2020 PA poll was Trump 45, Biden 50 🔴 Trump: 47% (+1)🔵 Harris: 46% Monmouth | 10/24-10/28 | N=824 RV Also, SoCal Strategies polled Georgia and found 🔴 Trump: 50% (+1)🔵 Harris: 49% They also polled Wisconsin, finding…

Trump up one in Michigan according to Emerson MICHIGAN poll 🔴 Trump: 49% (+1)🔵 Harris: 48% Emerson | 10/25-27 | N=1,000LV

Here is one that is frankly disappointing: PENNSYLVANIA poll by North Star Opinion Research (R) for American Greatness 🟦 Harris: 47%🟥 Trump: 47%🟪 Oliver: 1%🟩 Stein: 1%——PA Senate🟦 Casey (inc): 45%🟥 McCormick: 42%🟪 Thomas: 2%🟩 Hazou: 1%⬜ Other: 2%—— #239 (1.1/3.0) | 600 LV | 10/22-26 Party ID: D44/R41/I15 | MoE: ±4%

According to Rasmussen Reports. 1,014 Virginia Likely Voters was conducted on October 24-25, 2024. VIRGINIA Trump 46 Harris 48 Same release has Trump 50, Harris 44 in Texas, and Cruz ahead 47 to 43 in the Senate race.

MICHIGAN poll 🔴 Trump 50% (+1)🔵 Harris 49% Last poll: Harris +1 Patriot Polling | 10/24-26 | N=796RV WISCONSIN poll 🔴 Trump: 48% (+1)🔵 Harris: 47% USA Today/Suffolk | 10/20-23 | N=500LV NEW HAMPSHIRE poll 🔴 Trump. 50.2% (+0.4)🔵 Harris: 49.8% NH Journal | 10/24-26 | N=622RV TEXAS poll 🔴 Trump: 52% (+10)🔵 Harris: 42%…