HAPPENING NOW: GOP crushing Dems in Florida Election Day Voting:
Vote like you are trying to stop a communist takeover.
Essentially, Quantus, co/efficient, Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, Emerson, and Trafalgar all see a close election where MAGA voters will show up.
Big Data and AtlasIntel see an election where MAGA doesn’t show up. AtlasIntel because they see MAGA as disinterested because Trump isn’t on the ballot and they didn’t answer the poll, and Big Data because Baris imagines the libertarian side of the MAGA coalition is huge and will stay home.
But I wonder if its true that MAGA shows up but the Bush Republicans stay home.
267 responses to “The Poll that Matters”
First!
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in Florida there is ONE county with electrical problems…you guessed it. Broward.
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Election day vote in FL looking good so far from a % point of view. The key issue now is can the total scale of election day vote can be large enough to overcome the early vote.
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why are there never election day plumbing problems or electrical problems in GOP leaning precincts?
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Jaichind usually only shows up to eeyore the election for Rs.
He was wrong last time last time with the “Hamilton Co. IN” bs.
Could be good omen.
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GOP in Florida leads election day vote in every county except Broward, Gadsden, Orange and Leon. But we are catching up in the last two.
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Montgomery county (tax) may outrun its 2022 and 2024 numbers. This is a red county.
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Another guy who loved to eeyore R chances was Bayernfan.
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“from a % point of view”
well the raw numbers are pretty stout too…. R 249,502 | D 130,532
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Didn’t Rs win the ev in Florida this time too? I don’t follow ev.
Separately, Right now, it’s R +26 in Florida.
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Its only 9:30 a.m. and the GOP has already taken the overall lead in bell-weather Pinellas…with mail, early in person, and election day voting.
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I think FL results are important.
In 2024 the MSM talking heads immediately dismissed the FL blowout for Trump as “Fl is now red, means nothing”. As it turned out, it did mean something.
Tonight, if FL is close, it will be VERY significant. And it may well be.
So a good R result in FL DOES matter.
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“Didn’t Rs win the ev in Florida this time too?”
Yes, but nowhere near the margin they hit two years ago.
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well the raw numbers are pretty stout too…. R 249,502 | D 130,532″
The caveat of course is how the Indies are voting.
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“The caveat of course is how the Indies are voting.”
Sure, but if they vote for Nixon, they really weren’t indies.
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The overall ballot advantage for the GOP in Florida just passed 250,000. Nowhere near two years ago, but growing. And the overall party shift from two years ago is down to Dem +6.9 and its dropping. Would be great to get it down to 4 or less by the end of the day.
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Overall shift in FL from two years ago down to Dem +6.6 and dropping.
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So far GOP in Florida making great strides in catching up the lack of early in person voting.
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But as to the question of will MAGA show up nationally…the most heavy MAGA counties in Florida are along the northern panhandle across to the Atlantic north of Jacksonville. Here is the current shift in these counties compared to two years ago when Trump WAS on the ballot:
R+11.9 Liberty
R+10.5 Calhoun
R+7.0 Holmes
R+5.6 Dixie
R+4.7 Layfayette
R+4.7 Union
R+4.6 Baker
R+4.4 Gulf
R+2.9 Taylor
R+2.0 Jefferson
R+1.6 Hamilton
R+1.4 Washington
R+1.1 Madison
R+0.3 Suwannee
R+0.2 Gilchrist
D+0.8 Franklin
D+0.9 Columbia
D+1.0 Walton
D+1.7 Jackson
D+1.8 Bay
D+2.4 Wakulla
D+3.9 Okaloosa
D+4.7 Santa Rosa
D+4.8 Nassau
Looks to me like MAGA is showing up. I hope the Bush Republicans show up.
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lol,
Boris does not know much .
@Peoples_Pundit
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42m
From the 8am to 9am hour, Florida Republicans added 0.1% to their total edge, R+3.6 to R+3.7.
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Baris is not good at math.
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the edge is currently GOP +4.7. What did Baris expect, that 2 million Republicans would all show up before 9:00 a.m.?
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What did Baris say?
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Sure, but if they vote for Nixon, they really weren’t indies.”
Right.
Most of the indies in CA vote Marxist.
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Trump does brand well.
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I am a decline to state in ca. I vote R. However, most do not.
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“What did Baris say?” He said that from 8 to 9 the GOP barely moved the needle, which is not really true.
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@ElectionWiz
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17m
ELECTION ALERT: TX Election Day, first ~2 hours vs 2024: Montgomery County (Trump +45): 11,477 check-ins vs 11,485, about 100% of 2024’s pace Travis County (Austin): 18,051 vs 21,052, about 86% The red exurbs are matching presidential-year turnout, an early positive sign for Paxton, but Travis banked a big early vote, so its Election Day dip may just mean Democrats already voted. Afternoon turnout will tell us more.
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GOP just took the overall lead in Seminole county
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Dallas county looks quite ugly so far for Freako.
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In just 20 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +4.7 to +5.1
The shift from four years ago is down to Dem +6.0
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The aa vote must be off for freako in Dallas county. Freako never tried to mend fences with Crockett.
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GOP just took the lead in election day voting in Orange county Florida (Orlando)
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so now the GOP leads election day voting in all counties other than Broward, Gadsden and Leon
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In just 10 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.1 to +5.3
The shift from four years ago is down from Dem +6.0 to Dem +5.8
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That ain’t Paul, it’s Bunu.
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The absolute ceiling for Republicans tonight would be to narrowly win races in Maine, Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas. The odds against that happening are not good in this environment of course and we’re just as likely to get swept. NC, Texas, Ohio are already gone.
Avoid watching election returns tonight if you want to save yourself some moment by moment misery and stress. Put on a couple of movies, curl up with a good book……..don’t even peek at the internet or television coverage. Save yourself the pain of watching it all unfold in real time. You voted and that’s all you can do. Deal with the carnage tomorrow if you have to or if you are like me, just plan to uncouple yourself from politics for the next two years and pray Democrats don’t get the WH in 2028. Once controlling all branches this will happen:
4 new Democratic senators from Puerto Rico and DC
Court packed. Supreme Court packed insuring no guard rails on anything Democrats want to do no matter how nutty.
census in 2030 will include illegals in redistricting ensuring the House more than likely will stay Democratic for the next decade.
Open borders – possibly eliminating ICE entirely or at the least, watering it down to the point of restricting it to the point of being as ineffective as it was during the Biden administration. Hey, more illegals to count in the census.
Nation wide voting guidelines (like Democrats came within inches of passing last time they controlled all three branches) prohibiting voter ID, allowing massive endless mail in voting with no verification….. Elections at that point will be a farce and it won’t just be California any longer. Think California on a nation wide scale. The packed courts will bless it.
The left will never do all of that you say? What planet have you been living on? The moderates in the Democratic Party would never go for it. LOL What moderates? Fetterman and who else? The Senate filibuster would stop it? Democrats in lock step will remove that hurdle. They have openly stated so. The Courts will curtail all of the above radical ideas and protect our institutions? Another big LOL. The courts will be packed, remember? They will rubber stamp all of it. Public opinion will stop Democrats? Haha The public opinion is 80% in favor voter ID. Lot of good that will do. Besides if you rig the election and voting process what difference does public opinion make? You think 2020 election was bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
In short, the left can do anything they want to permanently ensure power……..and will.
I’m out. God help us. Pray for a Republican with a veto pen in the WH in 2028. It will be the last stand. Without it, the United States will never be the same again and there will be no going back.
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okay, will delete his post and my response.
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Phil, if Republicans show up in Ohio today like they are in Florida, then Husted wins.
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GOP down only 4,700 votes in Broward county election day voting.
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Refresh the page to see the chart I added about Florida election day voting.
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In just 30 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.3 to +5.5
The shift from four years ago is down from Dem +5.8 to Dem 5.6
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You do good work, DW.
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Guam has tipped uh flipped
R wins it.
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Guam a wash; GOV and Delegate offices flip, 51-48 for both races. Lots of personal retail politics there, the parties don’t mean quite what they do on the mainland here.
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Incredible R turnout today in FL. In 2024 the final election day result was R+15.0. Currently it is R+25.0
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Phil, those are all worrisome things, but also punted to 2028 since Trump can still veto anything Dems send to his desk.
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sane, that’s what I have been saying all morning. Its not what Dems were hoping for. I personally know of one snow bird who drove 1000 miles during the last week to get home to FL in time to vote.
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Also, the R margin is increasing by the hour. 7-8am was R+21.5, 10-11am was R+26.4, 11am on is R+27.5
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Guam legislature also R. Yeah, maybe we need to give those islands out there their own state after all, their politics might shift more rightward if the candidate selection actually mattered more.
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Yes punted until 2028, I understand that. What’s two years? I’m more worried about the long term…..hell, I just turned 75 so I will have lived my life under a USA with checks and balances. I’ll be in the ground when all this takes root…but I worry about my kids and grandkids.
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sane, yes look at the hour by hour chart posted at the top of the page
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In just 10 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.5 to +5.8
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +5.6 to Dem 5.3
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If this trend continues, the overall R-D % margin will approach that in 2024, which was R+11. The raw R vote margin today is going to significantly exceed that in 2024, which was 388k.
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Boris Arafat is melting down. So far he is wrong about Florida. He was wrong about Messie months ago.
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The main risk with FL in person is Dems do seem to turn out more in the afternoon. Let see what happens. Hopefully the current trend holds
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I have not have time to look. Any more update on TX in person voting patterns ?
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Ada (R) wins for Gov; Limtiaco (D) wins the Delegate seat both flips.
Governor:
ADA/CALVO (R) 15,945 51.45%
TERLAJE/PEREZ (D) 14,925 48.15%
Write-In Totals 124 0.40%
Total Votes Cast 30,994 100.00%
Delegate to Congress
LIMTIACO (D) 15,645 51.00%
MOYLAN (R) 14,983 48.84%
Write-In Totals 49 0.16%
Total Votes Cast 30,677 100.00%
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GOP took lead in the overall count in St. Lucie county.
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Freespeech212
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3m
Absolute stunning morning in Montgomery. Trump +45.5 in 2024. Three hours in, a midterm is beating a presidential race — hour 2: 5,562 vs 5,034, hour 3: 5,246 vs 4,869, hour 4 pacing ~5,351 vs 5,138. Day total already 19,609, ahead of 2024’s pace by ~600.
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Want to point out again that the reason I follow Florida so closely is because the data is clear to read and easy to follow, and as the third largest state, it is a good sample size. It has MAGA Republicans, more moderate Republicans, moderate Dems and moonbat Dems. So its a decent representation of the country.
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Dallas county looks way down. Hearing also that aas are not turning out.
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In just 12 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.8 to +5.9
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +5.3 to Dem 5.2
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Boris Arafat hates Donalds. He is still melting down
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Boris is not mentioning how ugly it looks for the Ds in browaed county.
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DW, he’s at it again.
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Ames
@VivaLaAmes11
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Follow
JUST IN: Late deciders are swinging Republican by +9 points – NYT
9:53 AM · Nov 2, 2026
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OK, looks like you saw it
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https://revolver.news/2026/11/new-york-times-late-deciders-are-swinging-republican-by-9-points/
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@earlyvotedata
Election Day Vote Update for Ohio: I ran a precinct analysis of the election day vote for counties that give us that data. Please keep in mind that this does not mean direct candidate choice but just gives us an idea what precincts are voting. Bottom line: there is an overall shift on E Day towards R precincts in these counties, which when combined with the early vote still has a shift overall to Democrats from 2024. Two counties have shifts on E day towards Democrats. If trends continue then the overall shift can still go more R, if things reverse than more D of course. Just providing data for you all based on the best way to look at things in a state like Ohio where party registration is not given. I’ll keep updating these same ones throughout the day just to get a sense of any changes.
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https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16259741/election-day-midterms-2026-live-updates.html
WTF. Trump stabs Israel in the back on Election Day when some Jews are switching their votes to the GOP. He loves self-inflicted wounds and unforced errors.
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I don’t think it matters much this late, bitter, but I hear what you are saying.
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In just 12 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.9 to +6.0
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +5.2 to Dem 5.1
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uh no the Israelis don’t want our $. They have said it multiple times.
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Jason I don’t recall eyeoring gop chances. As I recall, I was the closest to getting it right in 2016.
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Nevada election day voting is R+8.8 so far
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“Ballot scanners at polling places across Westchester County, New York, stopped accepting paper ballots on Election Day, raising the prospect of delayed results in one of the country’s most closely watched House races, between Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Democratic nominee Cait Conley. The county covers roughly 30% of New York’s 17th District”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/voting-machines-reject-paper-ballots-across-westchester-county-home-key-house
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In just 20 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.9 to +6.1
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +5.2 to Dem 5.0
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They need to pay for backing the fake impeachment
@sethjlevy
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12m
Watching John Cornyn and the Bush Republicans lose control of Texas will be one of my most anticipated potential outcomes this evening.
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In just 8 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.1 to +6.2
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +5.0 to Dem 4.9
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Hi, logging in from Texas for my bi annual chat participation. Anecdotally I have to say if anyone is public about who they are voting for here it is all Talarico. Have not seen a single Paxton sign in my (very blue admittedly) county. Will see how strong the silent republicans are this time.
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I’m fine w watching cornyn and bush go away, but not if it means losing Abbott and a senate seat.
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BL, ending that aid may not be such a bad thing, Ace has a good take on that;
Trump Will End the $3.8 Billion Per Year of Military Aid to Israel by Year’s End;<br>Counterintuitively, Is This the Best Outcome for the US <i>and</i> Israel?
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1980Khoa
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12m
Republicans are now leading in over 95% of the counties in FL for ED. Furthermore, democrats are collapsing in deep blue Broward county. This is significant as it will increase Singer chance to unseat Moskowitz in FL-25 (republicans need to win this seat to keep the house close).
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Shenanigans in Maricartel county. R Areas closed.
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Welcome back, BF. GFY
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The 12:18 post is not mine.
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Got it Tina
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uh no the Israelis don’t want our $. They have said it multiple times.
Then announce it tomorrow. Trump really does want to blow this election.
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In just 7 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.2 to +6.3
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.9 to Dem 4.8
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I doubt Tina posted about Todd.
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nice to see this place hasn’t changed since I first perused in 2004 🙂
Still miss Polaris /sarcasm
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Jeremy Todd is a Libertarian. I can take it down, Tina.
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bunu is stealing handles again today. Everyone keep in mind that I will delete them. Nobody clicks on his links or believes his deceptions, but he keeps doing it anyway.
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I already got it Bitter, but thanks for being on duty as well.
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Overall ballot advantage in Florida is now GOP +420139
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Thanks And after you BL. Is it poppin in Pinellas? Here in Deep blue Indianapolis it appears that turnout is light while outlying counties (GOP) are strong. All eyes on IN5 (Spartz v Ford), and Hamilton County is strong turnout. Normally GOP, it’s been getting less and less red over the past 10 years thanks to its rising pop and urbanisation. More AWFLs. So we’ll see soon after 6pm EST.
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In just 10 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.3 to +6.4
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.8 to Dem 4.7
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DW, the wiz kids say that R edge in 2024 was 600k in FL, so anything approaching that should mean lights out for the Ds there even accounting for a big collapse for Rs amongst the indies.
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GF, and then the larger question is how could it be true that the GOP would reach those numbers in Florida but then in the rest of the nation the generic ballot is Dem +10 to +15? If that were true would we see a dent in Florida’s numbers. Now we are seeing a small dent, but something more akin to a national generic ballot of D+3 to D+5.
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If the generic ballot in NY, for example, comes to pass i.e. 55-42 D/R, then that is a 2024 electorate. CA will swing Dem a bit because Harris was awful even out here (she won by about 20 when Hillary and Biden won by 30), so that will move the national GCB a bit leftward. I don’t know if the IL numbers I saw a few days ago are correct, but if our no-name Senate candidate is actually polling in the low 40s, then that is also a more neutral environment. To be sure, I do think we will see bigger swings than normal in the upper midwest and the farm belt states, they’re hit hard by diesel prices, but how much? Stay tuned…
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I hope the farmers realize that Trump’s diesel price is still better than when the Dems will ban diesel and require electric tractors.
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In just 13 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.4 to +6.5
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.7 to Dem 4.6
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The good, the bad and the ugly of my polling place. (with explanation)
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Republicans are now leading in over 95% of the counties in FL for ED.”
We are becoming a godless country if Erectile Disfunction is on the ballot.
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GOP only 5300 votes behind in election day voting in broward
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Jason I don’t recall eyeoring gop chances. As I recall, I was the closest to getting it right in 2016.”
Bayern was hacked!
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In just 7minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.5 to +6.6
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.6 to Dem 4.5
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If the GOP loses big we might get some trolls tonight besides the Biden Troll.
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Might?
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I wonder whatever became of Canadian Cory (of Marxist Math 101% fame). Last I saw, he was starting to get “worried” around 11PM EST on 8th NOV, 2016.
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First polling miss comes out of Guam, according to RRH;
“Guam is the 1st massive poll miss of 2026. Pre-election polling had Democrats winning the Guam gubernatorial election in a landslide. The October 29th Pasquines poll has Democrat Therese Terlaje winning by a 57.9% to 35.4% margin. She lost to Republican Tony Ada by over 3 points.”
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https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16259741/election-day-midterms-2026-live-updates.html?banner=daily-download
Purely anecdotal but enjoy.
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Who cares about Baris? What does the fox say?
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overall GOP advantage in FL has passed 450,000 and is still climbing
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@Freespeech212
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1m
1/3 🚨 Montgomery County, TX (Trump +45.5 in 2024) has recorded 26,887 Election Day check-ins by noon. That’s already 5,202 (+24%) more than its busiest early-voting day of 2026 (21,685 on Oct. 30).
And there are still 7 hours of voting left.
2/3 Here’s the remarkable part — hourly turnout vs. the 2024 presidential election: • Hour 1: 5,950 vs. 6,451 (−7.8%) • Hour 2: 5,585 vs. 5,034 (+10.9%) • Hour 3: 5,254 vs. 4,869 (+7.9%) • Hour 4: 5,348 vs. 5,138 (+4.1%) • Hour 5: 4,740 vs. 4,830 (−1.9%) Three consecutive hours BEAT presidential Election Day turnout.
3/3 The bigger picture: First 5 hours in 2024: 26,322 votes First 5 hours in 2026: 26,877 votes (+2.1%) A midterm is outperforming the presidential election’s opening five hours in raw Election Day check-ins. Add 183,341 early votes, and Montgomery has already crossed 210,000 total ballots before noon, surpassing its entire 2022 midterm vote count. All this in a county Trump carried by 45.5 points. Extraordinary participation — though turnout alone doesn’t tell us how voters are voting.
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BL, I wonder if those anecdotes will be as consequential as the PUMA effect in 2008.
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Looks like in Ohio, the red Trump counties are turning Out. They are doing numbers similar to or exceeding 2024 presidential
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In just 20 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.6 to +6.7
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.5 to Dem 4.4
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The d surge is coming in Florida.
-Boris Arafat
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Let’s hold the Congress. I have my $5000 earmarked.
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https://nypost.com/2026/11/03/us-news/midterms-2026-an-hour-by-hour-guide-on-how-to-watch/
Poll closing times.
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We’ll see in the next few hours if Baris knows what he’s talking about. He says the GOP needs to be at +11 by mid-afternoon to hold off the late D vote surge.
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Hi Folks,
Thought I’d check in to say hello to my HHR friends. The early signs of ED voting look pretty good for the GOP so far, especially here in FL. Nice result Guam. I have noticed on X today that the GOP posters seems optimistic about they see nationwide so far, but the Dems are not happy, so far.
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DW, is this the site you are using?
Florida 2026 general election map | DataRepublican
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“the GOP needs to be at +11 by mid-afternoon”
+11 what?
In just 10 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.7 to +6.8
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.4 to Dem 4.3
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https://flvoicenews.com/florida-turnout-tracker/
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In just 7 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.8 to +6.9
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.3 to Dem 4.2
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Hello, Marv.
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Marv, great to hear from you!
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a poll worker in MN was seen mocking the shooting of Charlie Kirk.
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DW, I am not agreeing with Baris. He is very good at his trade, but I believe his work is at least somewhat compromised by how emotional he got about Iran.
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Hey Marv, nice to see you!
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Not sure why there would an afternoon D surge in FL. ‘
If the implication is the PM vote is more working people, not sure why that would be more D either.
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I would think the Karens would be out voting early.
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I was just curious what he meant by +11? Right now election day vote is GOP +24.6, the change from 2024 is GOP +9.6, and the overall ballot count for mail+early+election day is GOP +6.9.
Not sure which +11 he meant
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DW, the 12:14 post was not mine.
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looking at the numbers by county, the GOP has a lot left they can glean in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Hillsborough, Duval, and Orange.
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Bitterlaw,
I have great respect for you after you permitted me to retain my side arm and horse.
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In just 15 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.9 to +7.0
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.2 to Dem 4.1
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This is an actual voting precinct in South Minneapolis sign:
“Protect immigrants and refugees”
“Protect queer kids”
“Share the wealth”
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DW, I think Baris was referring to the overall partisan edge, which you said is now around GOP +7, not just the ED advantage.
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In 2024 the afternoon vote was more favorable to the Dems than the morning, but still R heavy. Nothing is going to change the overall election day trajectory in FL.
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DW,
I really appreciate your keeping up with the polls this season and the hourly updates on turnout today.
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DW, keep in mind that Broward, ground zero for Democrats in Florida, is not regularly reporting. From the website you are referencing – “ Broward County is having election reporting issues. Data may slightly skew Republican until Broward resumes regular reporting. Broward last reported unknown”
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Jason, nice to see you again too.
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CNN interviewing some people who say they switched from El Sayed to Rogers because of the Stevens endorsement.
The left wing Internet sites were full of hatred and jeering for Stevens, not to mention the TDS sites like Dispatch. They were unanimous that her endorsement did not matter.
I am not so sure, because a lot of people are not political junkies reading this stuff. All they will see is that they voted for Stevens and now she endorsed Rogers.
I find the idea that this HELPED El Sayed by galvanizing his vote difficult to accept. I think his base is highly motivated already.
I think the Stevens endorsement was a net loss for El Sayed. If he was only up a few points it could make a difference. Of course, if he is up 11 like Sienna said it won’t matter.
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Baris is highly invested in there being a blue tsunami.
So I doubt he would say anything to dampen that even if he does not like early numbers.
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Baris = Bunu at this point. A Blue tsunami on an 1894 scale gives them an opening, in their view, to take over the party wholesale, hence why they push the narrative.
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“DW, I think Baris was referring to the overall partisan edge, which you said is now around GOP +7, not just the ED advantage.”
Then Baris is nuts. Its never going to get to overall GOP +11, and it doesn’t need to get there. He is setting up a straw man.
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I share Baris skepticism on the Iran war. But the does not excuse him reading the data to fit his narrative. Unlikely him my non-support of the Iran war does not change my support of the domestic MAGA agenda.
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In the next hour the GOP will pass the total gain they made against the Dems in election day voting 2024.
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In just 15 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +7.0 to +7.1
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.1 to Dem 4.0
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4⃣ TEXAS APPROVAL RATINGS
All six political leaders and congressional delegations tested register net-negative approval ratings in Texas.
Approve / Disapprove
Donald Trump: 44% / 53%
Greg Abbott: 43% / 53%
Ted Cruz: 45% / 53%
John Cornyn: 17% / 67%
Texas House Republicans: 43% / 52%
Texas House Democrats: 41% / 50%
Check out John Cornyn’s 17% approval rating. With this rating it appears he would have done worse than Paxton.
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Baris has been lights out on his polling over the last 12 years. That said, I’m thinking his obsession over Iran has really colored his commentary over the last year. I’m hoping it’s his view bias that has affected his dire commentary and his dire predictions. Says he goes strictly by the numbers.
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Baris polled multiple times before the primary day finding Massie tied each time, and he promptly lost by 10.
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Hi Phil,
I think that there is a direct link between your generally negative views on GOP election prospects this year and the mediocre performance of the Texas A&M football team so far.
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Broward is reporting. Their reported vote totals by hour are consistent with Palm Beach and Miami-Dade.
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yes, sane_voter, I meant to return to that topic and forgot. Broward was fixed hours ago. And GOP is only 8k votes behind there. If that holds its a disaster for Dems.
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Marv, you may be right. Hadn’t thought about that. LOL
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DW,
The G650 is unavailable until further notice. I’ve ordered the crew to study and discuss the Lear60 accident that happened here in So Fla Sunday.
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There seem to be some switches in Alaska because of the two-Sullivan-ploy that the Dems tried to confuse voters with.
WOW! Fox News just found an Alaska voter who CONSIDERED voting Mary Peltola (D) for Senate but then SWITCHED to the REAL Dan Sullivan (R) when they found out about the ballot fraud scandal
“[The fake Sullivan] HE’S MISSING IN ACTION.”
“I switched.”
This is incredible.
I hope many Alaskans are doing the same thing. Do not let them steal it!
Investigations are open BOTH at the state and federal level now. It’s not going away!
Reporter: @MattFinnFNC
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NY Times final MI poll has Islamic Commie up 11%. 🗑️
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Hi janzam,
I read and enjoy all of your posts, keep it up.
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Red Eagles Politics midterm predictions are:
🚨 FINAL REP PREDICTIONS
🔵 House: 229 D, 206 R
🔴 Senate: 51 R, 49 D
🔵 Governor: 26 D, 24 R
GCB Margin: D+7.6
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I stopped going to Boris twittter feed. He is a scam artist. Fake poll
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Good to see you again Marv!
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Hi marv
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“Most Accurate Pollster in America, who correctly predicted every Trump’s victory, just gave a STUNNING Midterms prediction that will give Democrats Nightmares.
John McLaughlin says Republicans WILL hold the Senate with 53 seats and come closer than expected in the House and there will be some MAJOR GOP surprise victories.
McLaughlin says there is a massive upset brewing in Minnesota with Michelle Tafoya beating out Peggy Flanagan for Senate. A GOP pickup.
He also says the Republican in the New York Governor’s race, Bruce Blakeman, is in striking distance of Kathy Hochul.”
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I hope he’s right about Tafoya – someone I’ve donated to twice.
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I’ve ordered the crew to study and discuss the Lear60 accident that happened here in So Fla Sunday.”
Don’t listen to the ATC recording if you don’t to be depressed.
While the co pilot, the 20 year old is communicating what is happening, you can hear the pilot, a 55 year old from PA, reciting the lord’s prayer.
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If you look at the flight path they made a right turn right into a storm cell just a few miles wide at the wrong moment. Another minute flying straight and they would have avoided it.
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Aloha Tina,
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Hey Marv, it seems clear the horizontal stabilizer is not on the plane on impact.
Do you think it just broke off because of the aerodynamics of the dive or it was the reason for the accident.
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Small change in Polymarket, R chances of holding the senate now up to 25%.
Was under 20% this morning
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John McLaughlin says Republicans WILL hold the Senate with 53 seats and come closer than expected in the House and there will be some MAJOR GOP surprise victories.”
Interesting, since the time for spinning is now over and the chance to muddle the waters to CYA is also over.
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Jason,
I wasn’t depressed by listening to the ATC tapes, I was just really irritated by the whole chain of events, starting with the first contact with Miami Center off the west Florida coast. Also, basic rule…..never attempt to outclimb a rapidly building thunderstorm cell. Being on top of one of those things is extremely dangerous.
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I only donated to Rogers and Paxton and my local congressman.
But that is more than I said I would since I promised not to make any more political contributions.
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Also, basic rule…..never attempt to outclimb a rapidly building thunderstorm cell.”
Yeah, I thought so too but I saw an “Internet pilot” saying you SHOULD climb so you get rid of the precipitation.
Maybe (if the stabilizer did not come off during flight) their icing problem was more serious than they thought and the climb stalled them?
Is it true that the Lear jet has a reputation of being an “unforgiving” plane?
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@OpenSourceZone
·
2h
Florida is out performing initial electorate projections Per Patrick Ruffini Initial Projection: R+8.6 Current Pace: R+9.6-10.2
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Rs up a bit over 400k in FL now as 1500 EST approaches. Not sure if they’ll hit 600k or not, they should be in good territory now.
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“Is it true that the Lear jet has a reputation of being an “unforgiving” plane?”
Can’t be any worse than the F4U Corsair. Pilots either loved or hated that beast. Incredible horsepower, but hard to see out over that giant nose, and unweildy in average hands.
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Went to lunch and got back:
In just 60 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +7.1 to +7.4
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.0 to Dem 3.6
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In just 60 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +7.1 to +7.4″
Maybe this is what Baris thinks needs to be 11?
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REFRESH YOUR PAGE! I HAVE UPDATED THE FLORIDA CHART. GOP CONTINUES TO GROW ITS LEAD EACH HOUR!!
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Maricopa county’s 11:00 drop showed R’s ahead by 20 pts over D’s. Pima county also doing well with R’s showing up to vote.
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“Maybe this is what Baris thinks needs to be 11?”
No, that’s absurd. 11 is what we had two years ago in a presidential year when Trump and Republicans mopped the floor with them. We know its going to be short of that, but right now its 7.5 and still climbing.
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Jason,
The Lear60 has a T-tail horizontal stabilizer that is well known to be susceptible to rapid ice accretion in heavy icing conditions, such as in the middle of a rapidly developing thunderstorm cell. When that happens, depending on the amount of ice build up, it becomes a big brick of ice and aircraft control is lost. In this case, it happened during the attempted climb to FL370, the aircraft appeared to stall, from which recovery was not possible. A steep dive and overspeed occurred and the horizontal stabilizer separated from the aircraft. Eventually that horizontal stabilizer will be found.
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if it was a national generic ballot of D+12, we would be barely ahead at all in Florida right now, not up 7.5%
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A federal grand jury in Wichita, Kansas returned an indictment today charging a postal worker with stealing thousands of pieces of mail, including hundreds of political mailings that were all related to Republican Party candidates.
According to court documents, Kelly R. Cram, 59, of Baxter Springs, was indicted on one count of unlawful secretion, destruction, and delay of mail.”
Why I don’t vote by mail.
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GOP has gained 411,235 ballots on Dems today. Two years ago the entire day of election day voting gained them only 388,116. Now to be fair, the GOP needed to do this today given the less than stellar early in person numbers.
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In just 10 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +7.4 to +7.5
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +3.6 to Dem 3.5
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Thanks for the explanation Marv, I do think that is the most likely scenario. There have been cases of horizontal stabilizer separation but they are extremely rare, I remember it happening to an Embraer EMB-120 landing in Houston in 1991, but even then it was a maintenance issue (screws removed).
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All this still depends on there not being a huge shift in the Indy vote, right?
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I will not constantly refresh polymarket because it’s so easily manipulated
I will not constantly refresh polymarket because it’s so easily manipulated
I will not constantly refresh polymarket because it’s so easily manipulated
*refreshes polymarket and sees Talarico 74%, El-Sayed 76-%, Hamilton 63%*
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If independents truly break 75 to 25 for the D’s, then no amount of R turnout will matter. What is much more likely is the independents will break heavily for the Ds, But probably more on the order of 58 to 42 votes or slightly less.
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In just 10 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +7.5 to +7.6
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +3.5 to Dem 3.4
This morning I was just hoping we could get it down to Dem 4.0.
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Also sees Jolly closing in on Donalds.
https://polymarket.com/event/florida-governor-winner-2026
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Its 3:23 p.m.
Baris’ Dem afternoon rush is being rescheduled for a Dem evening rush.
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GF,
58-42 sounds about right. Also, a lot of those Indies anre actually timid Republicans who will secretly vote GOP and not tell anybody.
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DW, Baris said a couple hours ago that the tide was turning, but that doesn’t seem to play out with the numbers you are posting.
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Jolly closing in on Donalds? So all these Republicans are showing up to vote for Jolly?
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tide turning in Florida?? Just look at the chart. Every hour the GOP gains. Some were more than less. So I guess when the gain dipped a bit hour over hour Baris got hope from it?
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Its 3:30 and the Dems finally got a +10k vote election day lead out of Broward county
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https://www.military.com/off-duty/2024/12/05/3-fbs-service-academy-football-programs-ranked.html
Marv – How does the decline in the importance of the Army-Navy game factor into the elections?
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DW,
FL has the big change in Homestead Exemption on the ballot today. Locks in huge property tax break for FL. homeowners if it passes.
.
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Yep, that is it in a nutshell
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA): “Abdul El-Sayed is a communist who hates America. He is in a spiritual union with Hasan Piker, who believes America deserved 9/11.”
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In just 20 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +7.6 to +7.8
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +3.4 to Dem 3.3
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Dems better hope for 52 seats, because he might flip at 51-49 if El Sayed wins.
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If I recall in 2018 the GOP only had a lead of a couple of % points in terms of total votes cast by party registration
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Bitterlaw,
The Army-Navy Game is America’s Game. Some consider it to be the most important football game of the year. It will be played as a stand alone game for at least as long as there is a patriotic President, meaning a Republican.
Taking that as Gospel truth and applying to this election, because most US voters are patriotic, I expect to see the the GOP do very well. Possible 53 GOP Senate seats. Perhaps ~219 House seats, maybe.
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If it is Dem-GOP 51 to 49 in the Senate then Fetterman becomes King
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Bibi must be manipulating the vote in Florida.
-boris
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GOP lead in florida ballots now at +578,462
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Relatively speaking, is that number a positive?
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Fetterman is a lefty, but he’s a pro American lefty. Kudos to him. The pro American part is why he is being driven out of the Democratic Party.
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So the Dems did a little better in the 3-4 o’clock hour. They lost only 40,949 that hour instead of 45,310 like they did the hour before.
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Phil, my understanding was that Republicans wanted a 600,000 cushion because that is similar to what they had two years ago. Whatever else happens in the country, Florida looks to be solid for team red this time.
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In just 25 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +7.8 to +7.9
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +3.3 to Dem 3.2
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GF, but two years ago was off the charts for GOP. Nobody expects that to be replicated. But being down only 3.2 compared to two years ago is already pretty good.
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Yeah, Florida is at least safe. The homestead amendment on the ballot helps with Republican turnout I suspect.
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cushion right now is +585,777
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but my larger point is that Florida, red tilt notwithstanding, is still the third largest state, and includes a lot of variety in it. If we are looking at a national generic ballot of D+12 to D=15 as some allege, then why didn’t it show up at all in the third largest state?
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Datarep girl says Rs are up 459k as of now, not 586k, but either way, I’d still take it.
Florida 2026 general election map | DataRepublican
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GF, I think that site is wrong. Been checking https://flvoicenews.com/florida-turnout-tracker/ all day and the growth has been consistent.
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and there it is…just flipped to GOP advantage of +600,703
In just 15 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +7.9 to +8.0
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +3.2 to Dem 3.1
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I’m only skeptical of FL Voice because that is the pseudo-Daugherty site, and I think he tends to jump the gun and cheerlead a bit too much for my taste. Either way, both are healthy numbers for the Rs.
Where is Nicky Numbers to tell us that “THIS IS REAL!!! THIS IS HAPPENING!!!”?
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GF wrote – Datarep girl says Rs are up 459k as of now, not 586k, but either way, I’d still take it.
———
That’s just Election Day number from her website. You need to make all the ballot boxes black and then it will give you the total numbers, which are close to what DW is reporting. I think data republicans data is a few minutes behind
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R+603,238
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I never dreamed Florida could get down to only a shift from 2024 of only 3.1, and its still dropping. THis morning I thought would be great that after polls close it could be 4.0, but I honestly didn’t think that was possible, but its what I was hoping for.
By my goodness. 3.1 and dropping, and it puts Florida in close range with 2024 which was a blowout there.
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Haley Stevens asking for protection after getting death threats. The Party of Peace strikes again.
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In just 11 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +8.0 to +8.1
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +3.1 to Dem 3.0
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R+611,726
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I wonder if the youth voting surge that pollsters predicted has arrived yet? The consensus was that the 18-29 voters would swamp the polls in the afternoon. Does anything point to that happening?
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GOP just passed 100,000 MORE than what they gained on Dems in Florida two years ago on election day.
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“Does anything point to that happening?” Not in Florida
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I don’t think we will exceed 2024 total votes turnout of 11,004,209, but we will certainly exceed 2022 total votes cast of 7,796,916. We are currently at 7,624,082 in Florida.
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R+620,071
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@EricLDaugh
·
3m
JUST IN: Florida Election Day is R+23.3 and statewide is R+8.1, a 611,000 THOUSAND GOP ballot advantage HOLD STRONG TONIGHT. The FINAL HOURS are upon us, the only time Dems can surge. VOTE, PATRIOTS, VOTE
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Is Boris ok?
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Yes, DW, the party of peace. Thugs and Goons.
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Rep Haley has requested the help from the us Marshals.
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I warned you, Bubu; be prepared for that standing army to meet you soon.
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PpollingNumbers
New – Governor poll – Ohio Vivek Ramaswamy 47% Amy Acton 45% HarrisX (B) – LV – 11/
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Matt Towery seems very confident that there will not be a blue tsunami in the Senate. It will be interesting to see exit polls and whether they reflect his “silver wave” theory.
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Yeah, turn them over to Iran for show trials. That’s the ticket.
How Venezuela of you.
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Stole your handle too? Bunu being Bunu
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In just 20 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +8.1 to +8.2
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +3.0 to Dem 2.9
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GOP has gained half a million votes in Florida’s election day, compared to 2024 where 388,116 were gained.
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IMPORTANT UPDATE FROM BARIS:
The Dem surge in Florida has been postponed until tomorrow.
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Who is watching CNN for their 1700 EST exit polls? I haven’t turned on the TV yet, don’t plan to until the first CFP poll comes out. I expect Miami to be number 1 and Georgia 2.
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Never doubt the DeSantis GOTV machine in Florida.
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I don’t have cable marv. I cut it up years ago
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I only subscribe to sports channels. Cable TV news became too toxic.
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52 minutes until polls close in Kentucky.
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Tina,
So, how do you watch football games?
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I subscribe
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REFRESH PAGE TO SEE THE BARIS SURGE in FLORIDA in chart at top of page!!!
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R+656,155
In just 30 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +8.2 to +8.4
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +2.9 to Dem 2.7
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There is only 1.5 hours left for the Dem surge in FL and and after that there is the Panhandle
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Baris and the esteemed and well respected by all (without exception) Mark Halperin are not buying what DW is selling.
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Only +8.4 DW? Thats nowhere near +11, LOL! Baris has been watching too much spinal tap – he wants it to go to 11, 1 louder.
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LOL I am not selling anything, just posting the numbers from Florida.
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In just 9 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +8.4 to +8.5
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +2.7 to Dem 2.6
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New Thread
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Actually, Mark Halperin said a while ago, that he could easily see every competitive Senate race but North Carolina going red given the high-quality private pulling over the last couple of days. He also noted that they could all easily go blue as well, but the only real caveat he had in the damn favor was the Atlas poll which it seems was taken only of “adults“ instead of likely voters.
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I thought Boris said the drats would make their moves after “lunch”.
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