The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

The Hedgehog Report is a safe place for Jewish participants. No antisemitism will be tolerated.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +15210225

2026 Senate Forecast

SCIAKSAKMIOHTXMEMNNH
Gap+6+3+2+2+2+1+1+2+3+5
Count46474849505152484746

Here is where Schumer and Jeffries get their orders….

DEMOCRATIC (DSA) Party Platform:

Strip Americans of all their hard-earned resources and retirement savings, forcing them to live hand-to-mouth, and then replace Americans by blowing all their money on illegals brought in from every cesspool country in the world; resulting in the USA becoming a Marxist third world country dominated by crime, injustice, and corruption.

The Poll that Matters

DW

HAPPENING NOW: GOP crushing Dems in Florida Election Day Voting:

Vote like you are trying to stop a communist takeover.

Essentially, Quantus, co/efficient, Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, Emerson, and Trafalgar all see a close election where MAGA voters will show up.

Big Data and AtlasIntel see an election where MAGA doesn’t show up. AtlasIntel because they see MAGA as disinterested because Trump isn’t on the ballot and they didn’t answer the poll, and Big Data because Baris imagines the libertarian side of the MAGA coalition is huge and will stay home.

But I wonder if its true that MAGA shows up but the Bush Republicans stay home.

178 responses to “The Poll that Matters”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First!

    Liked by 1 person

  2. DW Avatar
    DW

    in Florida there is ONE county with electrical problems…you guessed it. Broward.

    Like

  3. jaichind Avatar
    jaichind

    Election day vote in FL looking good so far from a % point of view. The key issue now is can the total scale of election day vote can be large enough to overcome the early vote.

    Like

  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    why are there never election day plumbing problems or electrical problems in GOP leaning precincts?

    Like

  5. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Jaichind usually only shows up to eeyore the election for Rs.

    He was wrong last time last time with the “Hamilton Co. IN” bs.

    Could be good omen.

    Like

  6. DW Avatar
    DW

    GOP in Florida leads election day vote in every county except Broward, Gadsden, Orange and Leon. But we are catching up in the last two.

    Like

  7. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Montgomery county (tax) may outrun its 2022 and 2024 numbers. This is a red county.

    Like

  8. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Another guy who loved to eeyore R chances was Bayernfan.

    Like

  9. DW Avatar
    DW

    “from a % point of view”

    well the raw numbers are pretty stout too…. R 249,502 | D 130,532

    Like

  10. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Didn’t Rs win the ev in Florida this time too? I don’t follow ev.

    Separately, Right now, it’s R +26 in Florida.

    Like

  11. DW Avatar
    DW

    Its only 9:30 a.m. and the GOP has already taken the overall lead in bell-weather Pinellas…with mail, early in person, and election day voting.

    Like

  12. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I think FL results are important.

    In 2024 the MSM talking heads immediately dismissed the FL blowout for Trump as “Fl is now red, means nothing”. As it turned out, it did mean something.

    Tonight, if FL is close, it will be VERY significant. And it may well be.

    So a good R result in FL DOES matter.

    Like

  13. DW Avatar
    DW

    “Didn’t Rs win the ev in Florida this time too?”

    Yes, but nowhere near the margin they hit two years ago.

    Like

  14. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    well the raw numbers are pretty stout too…. R 249,502 | D 130,532″

    The caveat of course is how the Indies are voting.

    Like

  15. DW Avatar
    DW

    “The caveat of course is how the Indies are voting.”

    Sure, but if they vote for Nixon, they really weren’t indies.

    Like

  16. DW Avatar
    DW

    The overall ballot advantage for the GOP in Florida just passed 250,000. Nowhere near two years ago, but growing. And the overall party shift from two years ago is down to Dem +6.9 and its dropping. Would be great to get it down to 4 or less by the end of the day.

    Like

  17. DW Avatar
    DW

    Overall shift in FL from two years ago down to Dem +6.6 and dropping.

    Like

  18. DW Avatar
    DW

    So far GOP in Florida making great strides in catching up the lack of early in person voting.

    Like

  19. DW Avatar
    DW

    But as to the question of will MAGA show up nationally…the most heavy MAGA counties in Florida are along the northern panhandle across to the Atlantic north of Jacksonville. Here is the current shift in these counties compared to two years ago when Trump WAS on the ballot:

    R+11.9 Liberty
    R+10.5 Calhoun
    R+7.0 Holmes
    R+5.6 Dixie
    R+4.7 Layfayette
    R+4.7 Union
    R+4.6 Baker
    R+4.4 Gulf
    R+2.9 Taylor
    R+2.0 Jefferson
    R+1.6 Hamilton
    R+1.4 Washington
    R+1.1 Madison
    R+0.3 Suwannee
    R+0.2 Gilchrist
    D+0.8 Franklin
    D+0.9 Columbia
    D+1.0 Walton
    D+1.7 Jackson
    D+1.8 Bay
    D+2.4 Wakulla
    D+3.9 Okaloosa
    D+4.7 Santa Rosa
    D+4.8 Nassau

    Looks to me like MAGA is showing up. I hope the Bush Republicans show up.

    Like

  20. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    lol,

    Boris does not know much .

    @Peoples_Pundit

    ·

    42m

    From the 8am to 9am hour, Florida Republicans added 0.1% to their total edge, R+3.6 to R+3.7.

    Like

  21. DW Avatar
    DW

    Baris is not good at math.

    Like

  22. DW Avatar
    DW

    the edge is currently GOP +4.7. What did Baris expect, that 2 million Republicans would all show up before 9:00 a.m.?

    Like

  23. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    What did Baris say?

    Like

  24. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Sure, but if they vote for Nixon, they really weren’t indies.”

    Right.

    Most of the indies in CA vote Marxist.

    Like

  25. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Trump does brand well.

    Brooke Taylor (@Brooketaylortv) ·

    UPDATE: Turns out these aren’t Texan voters. They’re from Sweden. https://t.co/mslByy5Js6

    View on X

    Like

  26. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I am a decline to state in ca. I vote R. However, most do not.

    Like

  27. DW Avatar
    DW

    “What did Baris say?” He said that from 8 to 9 the GOP barely moved the needle, which is not really true.

    Like

  28. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @ElectionWiz

    ·

    17m

    ELECTION ALERT: TX Election Day, first ~2 hours vs 2024: Montgomery County (Trump +45): 11,477 check-ins vs 11,485, about 100% of 2024’s pace Travis County (Austin): 18,051 vs 21,052, about 86% The red exurbs are matching presidential-year turnout, an early positive sign for Paxton, but Travis banked a big early vote, so its Election Day dip may just mean Democrats already voted. Afternoon turnout will tell us more.

    Like

  29. DW Avatar
    DW

    GOP just took the overall lead in Seminole county

    Like

  30. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Dallas county looks quite ugly so far for Freako.

    Like

  31. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 20 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +4.7 to +5.1

    The shift from four years ago is down to Dem +6.0

    Like

  32. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The aa vote must be off for freako in Dallas county. Freako never tried to mend fences with Crockett.

    Like

  33. DW Avatar
    DW

    GOP just took the lead in election day voting in Orange county Florida (Orlando)

    Like

  34. DW Avatar
    DW

    so now the GOP leads election day voting in all counties other than Broward, Gadsden and Leon

    Like

  35. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 10 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.1 to +5.3

    The shift from four years ago is down from Dem +6.0 to Dem +5.8

    Like

  36. GF Avatar
    GF

    That ain’t Paul, it’s Bunu.

    Like

  37. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    The absolute ceiling for Republicans tonight would be to narrowly win races in Maine, Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas. The odds against that happening are not good in this environment of course and we’re just as likely to get swept. NC, Texas, Ohio are already gone.

    Avoid watching election returns tonight if you want to save yourself some moment by moment misery and stress. Put on a couple of movies, curl up with a good book……..don’t even peek at the internet or television coverage. Save yourself the pain of watching it all unfold in real time. You voted and that’s all you can do. Deal with the carnage tomorrow if you have to or if you are like me, just plan to uncouple yourself from politics for the next two years and pray Democrats don’t get the WH in 2028. Once controlling all branches this will happen:

    4 new Democratic senators from Puerto Rico and DC

    Court packed. Supreme Court packed insuring no guard rails on anything Democrats want to do no matter how nutty.

    census in 2030 will include illegals in redistricting ensuring the House more than likely will stay Democratic for the next decade.

    Open borders – possibly eliminating ICE entirely or at the least, watering it down to the point of restricting it to the point of being as ineffective as it was during the Biden administration. Hey, more illegals to count in the census.

    Nation wide voting guidelines (like Democrats came within inches of passing last time they controlled all three branches) prohibiting voter ID, allowing massive endless mail in voting with no verification….. Elections at that point will be a farce and it won’t just be California any longer. Think California on a nation wide scale. The packed courts will bless it.

    The left will never do all of that you say? What planet have you been living on? The moderates in the Democratic Party would never go for it. LOL What moderates? Fetterman and who else? The Senate filibuster would stop it? Democrats in lock step will remove that hurdle. They have openly stated so. The Courts will curtail all of the above radical ideas and protect our institutions? Another big LOL. The courts will be packed, remember? They will rubber stamp all of it. Public opinion will stop Democrats? Haha The public opinion is 80% in favor voter ID. Lot of good that will do. Besides if you rig the election and voting process what difference does public opinion make? You think 2020 election was bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

    In short, the left can do anything they want to permanently ensure power……..and will.

    I’m out. God help us. Pray for a Republican with a veto pen in the WH in 2028. It will be the last stand. Without it, the United States will never be the same again and there will be no going back.

    Like

  38. DW Avatar
    DW

    okay, will delete his post and my response.

    Like

  39. DW Avatar
    DW

    Phil, if Republicans show up in Ohio today like they are in Florida, then Husted wins.

    Like

  40. DW Avatar
    DW

    GOP down only 4,700 votes in Broward county election day voting.

    Like

  41. DW Avatar
    DW

    Refresh the page to see the chart I added about Florida election day voting.

    Like

  42. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 30 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.3 to +5.5

    The shift from four years ago is down from Dem +5.8 to Dem 5.6

    Like

  43. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    You do good work, DW.

    Like

  44. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Guam has tipped uh flipped

    R wins it.

    Like

  45. GF Avatar
    GF

    Guam a wash; GOV and Delegate offices flip, 51-48 for both races. Lots of personal retail politics there, the parties don’t mean quite what they do on the mainland here.

    Like

  46. sane_voter Avatar
    sane_voter

    Incredible R turnout today in FL. In 2024 the final election day result was R+15.0. Currently it is R+25.0

    Like

  47. GF Avatar
    GF

    Phil, those are all worrisome things, but also punted to 2028 since Trump can still veto anything Dems send to his desk.

    Like

  48. DW Avatar
    DW

    sane, that’s what I have been saying all morning. Its not what Dems were hoping for. I personally know of one snow bird who drove 1000 miles during the last week to get home to FL in time to vote.

    Like

  49. sane_voter Avatar
    sane_voter

    Also, the R margin is increasing by the hour. 7-8am was R+21.5, 10-11am was R+26.4, 11am on is R+27.5

    Like

  50. GF Avatar
    GF

    Guam legislature also R. Yeah, maybe we need to give those islands out there their own state after all, their politics might shift more rightward if the candidate selection actually mattered more.

    Like

  51. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Yes punted until 2028, I understand that. What’s two years? I’m more worried about the long term…..hell, I just turned 75 so I will have lived my life under a USA with checks and balances. I’ll be in the ground when all this takes root…but I worry about my kids and grandkids.

    Like

  52. DW Avatar
    DW

    sane, yes look at the hour by hour chart posted at the top of the page

    Like

  53. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 10 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.5 to +5.8

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +5.6 to Dem 5.3

    Liked by 1 person

  54. sane_voter Avatar
    sane_voter

    If this trend continues, the overall R-D % margin will approach that in 2024, which was R+11. The raw R vote margin today is going to significantly exceed that in 2024, which was 388k.

    Like

  55. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Boris Arafat is melting down. So far he is wrong about Florida. He was wrong about Messie months ago.

    Like

  56. jaichind Avatar
    jaichind

    The main risk with FL in person is Dems do seem to turn out more in the afternoon. Let see what happens. Hopefully the current trend holds

    Like

  57. jaichind Avatar
    jaichind

    I have not have time to look. Any more update on TX in person voting patterns ?

    Like

  58. jaichind Avatar
    jaichind

    Ada (R) wins for Gov; Limtiaco (D) wins the Delegate seat both flips.

    Governor:
    ADA/CALVO (R) 15,945 51.45%
    TERLAJE/PEREZ (D) 14,925 48.15%
    Write-In Totals 124 0.40%
    Total Votes Cast 30,994 100.00%

    Delegate to Congress
    LIMTIACO (D) 15,645 51.00%
    MOYLAN (R) 14,983 48.84%
    Write-In Totals 49 0.16%
    Total Votes Cast 30,677 100.00%

    Like

  59. DW Avatar
    DW

    GOP took lead in the overall count in St. Lucie county.

    Like

  60. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Freespeech212

    ·

    3m

    Absolute stunning morning in Montgomery. Trump +45.5 in 2024. Three hours in, a midterm is beating a presidential race — hour 2: 5,562 vs 5,034, hour 3: 5,246 vs 4,869, hour 4 pacing ~5,351 vs 5,138. Day total already 19,609, ahead of 2024’s pace by ~600.

    Like

  61. DW Avatar
    DW

    Want to point out again that the reason I follow Florida so closely is because the data is clear to read and easy to follow, and as the third largest state, it is a good sample size. It has MAGA Republicans, more moderate Republicans, moderate Dems and moonbat Dems. So its a decent representation of the country.

    Like

  62. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Dallas county looks way down. Hearing also that aas are not turning out.

    Like

  63. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 12 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.8 to +5.9

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +5.3 to Dem 5.2

    Like

  64. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Boris Arafat hates Donalds. He is still melting down

    Like

  65. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Boris is not mentioning how ugly it looks for the Ds in browaed county.

    Like

  66. GF Avatar
    GF

    DW, he’s at it again.

    Like

  67. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Ames

    @VivaLaAmes11

    ·

    Follow

    JUST IN: Late deciders are swinging Republican by +9 points – NYT

    9:53 AM · Nov 2, 2026

    Like

  68. GF Avatar
    GF

    OK, looks like you saw it

    Like

  69. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    https://revolver.news/2026/11/new-york-times-late-deciders-are-swinging-republican-by-9-points/

    Like

  70. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @earlyvotedata

    Election Day Vote Update for Ohio: I ran a precinct analysis of the election day vote for counties that give us that data. Please keep in mind that this does not mean direct candidate choice but just gives us an idea what precincts are voting. Bottom line: there is an overall shift on E Day towards R precincts in these counties, which when combined with the early vote still has a shift overall to Democrats from 2024. Two counties have shifts on E day towards Democrats. If trends continue then the overall shift can still go more R, if things reverse than more D of course. Just providing data for you all based on the best way to look at things in a state like Ohio where party registration is not given. I’ll keep updating these same ones throughout the day just to get a sense of any changes.

    Like

  71. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16259741/election-day-midterms-2026-live-updates.html

    WTF. Trump stabs Israel in the back on Election Day when some Jews are switching their votes to the GOP. He loves self-inflicted wounds and unforced errors.

    Like

  72. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    I don’t think it matters much this late, bitter, but I hear what you are saying.

    Like

  73. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 12 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.9 to +6.0

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +5.2 to Dem 5.1

    Like

  74. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    uh no the Israelis don’t want our $. They have said it multiple times.

    Like

  75. BayernFan Avatar
    BayernFan

    Jason I don’t recall eyeoring gop chances. As I recall, I was the closest to getting it right in 2016.

    Like

  76. DW Avatar
    DW

    Nevada election day voting is R+8.8 so far

    Liked by 1 person

  77. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    “Ballot scanners at polling places across Westchester County, New York, stopped accepting paper ballots on Election Day, raising the prospect of delayed results in one of the country’s most closely watched House races, between Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Democratic nominee Cait Conley. The county covers roughly 30% of New York’s 17th District”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/voting-machines-reject-paper-ballots-across-westchester-county-home-key-house

    Like

  78. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 20 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +5.9 to +6.1

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +5.2 to Dem 5.0

    Like

  79. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    They need to pay for backing the fake impeachment

    @sethjlevy

    ·

    12m

    Watching John Cornyn and the Bush Republicans lose control of Texas will be one of my most anticipated potential outcomes this evening.

    Like

  80. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 8 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.1 to +6.2

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +5.0 to Dem 4.9

    Like

  81. b00mtaPP Avatar
    b00mtaPP

    Hi, logging in from Texas for my bi annual chat participation. Anecdotally I have to say if anyone is public about who they are voting for here it is all Talarico. Have not seen a single Paxton sign in my (very blue admittedly) county. Will see how strong the silent republicans are this time.

    Like

  82. b00mtaPP Avatar
    b00mtaPP

    I’m fine w watching cornyn and bush go away, but not if it means losing Abbott and a senate seat.

    Like

  83. GF Avatar
    GF

    BL, ending that aid may not be such a bad thing, Ace has a good take on that;

    Trump Will End the $3.8 Billion Per Year of Military Aid to Israel by Year’s End;<br>Counterintuitively, Is This the Best Outcome for the US <i>and</i> Israel?

    Like

  84. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    1980Khoa

    ·

    12m

    Republicans are now leading in over 95% of the counties in FL for ED. Furthermore, democrats are collapsing in deep blue Broward county. This is significant as it will increase Singer chance to unseat Moskowitz in FL-25 (republicans need to win this seat to keep the house close).

    Like

  85. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Shenanigans in Maricartel county. R Areas closed.

    Like

  86. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Welcome back, BF. GFY

    Liked by 1 person

  87. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The 12:18 post is not mine.

    Like

  88. DW Avatar
    DW

    Got it Tina

    Liked by 1 person

  89. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    uh no the Israelis don’t want our $. They have said it multiple times.

    Then announce it tomorrow. Trump really does want to blow this election.

    Like

  90. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 7 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.2 to +6.3

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.9 to Dem 4.8

    Like

  91. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I doubt Tina posted about Todd.

    Like

  92. b00mtaPP Avatar
    b00mtaPP

    nice to see this place hasn’t changed since I first perused in 2004 🙂

    Still miss Polaris /sarcasm

    Liked by 1 person

  93. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Jeremy Todd is a Libertarian. I can take it down, Tina.

    Like

  94. DW Avatar
    DW

    bunu is stealing handles again today. Everyone keep in mind that I will delete them. Nobody clicks on his links or believes his deceptions, but he keeps doing it anyway.

    Like

  95. DW Avatar
    DW

    I already got it Bitter, but thanks for being on duty as well.

    Like

  96. DW Avatar
    DW

    Overall ballot advantage in Florida is now GOP +420139

    Like

  97. BayernFan Avatar
    BayernFan

    Thanks And after you BL. Is it poppin in Pinellas? Here in Deep blue Indianapolis it appears that turnout is light while outlying counties (GOP) are strong. All eyes on IN5 (Spartz v Ford), and Hamilton County is strong turnout. Normally GOP, it’s been getting less and less red over the past 10 years thanks to its rising pop and urbanisation. More AWFLs. So we’ll see soon after 6pm EST.

    Like

  98. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 10 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.3 to +6.4

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.8 to Dem 4.7

    Like

  99. GF Avatar
    GF

    DW, the wiz kids say that R edge in 2024 was 600k in FL, so anything approaching that should mean lights out for the Ds there even accounting for a big collapse for Rs amongst the indies.

    Like

  100. DW Avatar
    DW

    GF, and then the larger question is how could it be true that the GOP would reach those numbers in Florida but then in the rest of the nation the generic ballot is Dem +10 to +15? If that were true would we see a dent in Florida’s numbers. Now we are seeing a small dent, but something more akin to a national generic ballot of D+3 to D+5.

    Like

  101. GF Avatar
    GF

    If the generic ballot in NY, for example, comes to pass i.e. 55-42 D/R, then that is a 2024 electorate. CA will swing Dem a bit because Harris was awful even out here (she won by about 20 when Hillary and Biden won by 30), so that will move the national GCB a bit leftward. I don’t know if the IL numbers I saw a few days ago are correct, but if our no-name Senate candidate is actually polling in the low 40s, then that is also a more neutral environment. To be sure, I do think we will see bigger swings than normal in the upper midwest and the farm belt states, they’re hit hard by diesel prices, but how much? Stay tuned…

    Like

  102. DW Avatar
    DW

    I hope the farmers realize that Trump’s diesel price is still better than when the Dems will ban diesel and require electric tractors.

    Like

  103. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 13 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.4 to +6.5

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.7 to Dem 4.6

    Like

  104. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The good, the bad and the ugly of my polling place. (with explanation)

    1. The good. Seems like stronger turnout. Since this is a red area, higher turnout should portend more GOP votes.
    2. The bad. Most of the voters seemed to be women voting alone. Since women tend to vote more Dem, could be a bad sign,
    3. The ugly. No Amish voters. Since IF they vote they vote R, it could be an ugly sign.

    Like

  105. ssq Avatar
    ssq

    Republicans are now leading in over 95% of the counties in FL for ED.”

    We are becoming a godless country if Erectile Disfunction is on the ballot.

    Like

  106. DW Avatar
    DW

    GOP only 5300 votes behind in election day voting in broward

    Like

  107. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Jason I don’t recall eyeoring gop chances. As I recall, I was the closest to getting it right in 2016.”

    Bayern was hacked!

    Like

  108. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 7minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.5 to +6.6

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.6 to Dem 4.5

    Like

  109. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    If the GOP loses big we might get some trolls tonight besides the Biden Troll.

    Like

  110. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Might?

    Like

  111. GF Avatar
    GF

    I wonder whatever became of Canadian Cory (of Marxist Math 101% fame). Last I saw, he was starting to get “worried” around 11PM EST on 8th NOV, 2016.

    Like

  112. GF Avatar
    GF

    First polling miss comes out of Guam, according to RRH;

    “Guam is the 1st massive poll miss of 2026. Pre-election polling had Democrats winning the Guam gubernatorial election in a landslide. The October 29th Pasquines poll has Democrat Therese Terlaje winning by a 57.9% to 35.4% margin. She lost to Republican Tony Ada by over 3 points.”

    Like

  113. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16259741/election-day-midterms-2026-live-updates.html?banner=daily-download

    Purely anecdotal but enjoy.

    Like

  114. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Who cares about Baris? What does the fox say?

    Like

  115. DW Avatar
    DW

    overall GOP advantage in FL has passed 450,000 and is still climbing

    Like

  116. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @Freespeech212

    ·

    1m

    1/3 🚨 Montgomery County, TX (Trump +45.5 in 2024) has recorded 26,887 Election Day check-ins by noon. That’s already 5,202 (+24%) more than its busiest early-voting day of 2026 (21,685 on Oct. 30).

    And there are still 7 hours of voting left.

    2/3 Here’s the remarkable part — hourly turnout vs. the 2024 presidential election: • Hour 1: 5,950 vs. 6,451 (−7.8%) • Hour 2: 5,585 vs. 5,034 (+10.9%) • Hour 3: 5,254 vs. 4,869 (+7.9%) • Hour 4: 5,348 vs. 5,138 (+4.1%) • Hour 5: 4,740 vs. 4,830 (−1.9%) Three consecutive hours BEAT presidential Election Day turnout.

    3/3 The bigger picture: First 5 hours in 2024: 26,322 votes First 5 hours in 2026: 26,877 votes (+2.1%) A midterm is outperforming the presidential election’s opening five hours in raw Election Day check-ins. Add 183,341 early votes, and Montgomery has already crossed 210,000 total ballots before noon, surpassing its entire 2022 midterm vote count. All this in a county Trump carried by 45.5 points. Extraordinary participation — though turnout alone doesn’t tell us how voters are voting.

    Like

  117. Jeff G. Avatar
    Jeff G.

    BL, I wonder if those anecdotes will be as consequential as the PUMA effect in 2008.

    Like

  118. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Looks like in Ohio, the red Trump counties are turning Out. They are doing numbers similar to or exceeding 2024 presidential

    Like

  119. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 20 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.6 to +6.7

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.5 to Dem 4.4

    Like

  120. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The d surge is coming in Florida.

    -Boris Arafat

    Like

  121. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Let’s hold the Congress. I have my $5000 earmarked.

    Like

  122. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/11/03/us-news/midterms-2026-an-hour-by-hour-guide-on-how-to-watch/

    Poll closing times.

    Like

  123. Jeff G. Avatar
    Jeff G.

    We’ll see in the next few hours if Baris knows what he’s talking about. He says the GOP needs to be at +11 by mid-afternoon to hold off the late D vote surge.

    Like

  124. Marv Avatar
    Marv

    Hi Folks,

    Thought I’d check in to say hello to my HHR friends. The early signs of ED voting look pretty good for the GOP so far, especially here in FL. Nice result Guam. I have noticed on X today that the GOP posters seems optimistic about they see nationwide so far, but the Dems are not happy, so far.

    Like

  125. GF Avatar
    GF

    DW, is this the site you are using?

    Florida 2026 general election map | DataRepublican

    Like

  126. DW Avatar
    DW

    “the GOP needs to be at +11 by mid-afternoon”

    +11 what?

    In just 10 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.7 to +6.8

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.4 to Dem 4.3

    Like

  127. DW Avatar
    DW

    https://flvoicenews.com/florida-turnout-tracker/

    Like

  128. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 7 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.8 to +6.9

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.3 to Dem 4.2

    Like

  129. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Hello, Marv.

    Like

  130. DW Avatar
    DW

    Marv, great to hear from you!

    Like

  131. DW Avatar
    DW

    a poll worker in MN was seen mocking the shooting of Charlie Kirk.

    Like

  132. Jeff G. Avatar
    Jeff G.

    DW, I am not agreeing with Baris. He is very good at his trade, but I believe his work is at least somewhat compromised by how emotional he got about Iran.

    Like

  133. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Hey Marv, nice to see you!

    Like

  134. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Not sure why there would an afternoon D surge in FL. ‘

    If the implication is the PM vote is more working people, not sure why that would be more D either.

    Like

  135. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I would think the Karens would be out voting early.

    Like

  136. DW Avatar
    DW

    I was just curious what he meant by +11? Right now election day vote is GOP +24.6, the change from 2024 is GOP +9.6, and the overall ballot count for mail+early+election day is GOP +6.9.

    Not sure which +11 he meant

    Like

  137. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    DW, the 12:14 post was not mine.

    Liked by 1 person

  138. DW Avatar
    DW

    looking at the numbers by county, the GOP has a lot left they can glean in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Hillsborough, Duval, and Orange.

    Like

  139. Marv Avatar
    Marv

    Bitterlaw,

    I have great respect for you after you permitted me to retain my side arm and horse.

    Like

  140. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 15 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +6.9 to +7.0

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.2 to Dem 4.1

    Like

  141. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    This is an actual voting precinct in South Minneapolis sign:

    “Protect immigrants and refugees”
    “Protect queer kids”
    “Share the wealth”

    Like

  142. Jeff G. Avatar
    Jeff G.

    DW, I think Baris was referring to the overall partisan edge, which you said is now around GOP +7, not just the ED advantage.

    Like

  143. sane_voter Avatar
    sane_voter

    In 2024 the afternoon vote was more favorable to the Dems than the morning, but still R heavy. Nothing is going to change the overall election day trajectory in FL.

    Like

  144. Marv Avatar
    Marv

    DW,

    I really appreciate your keeping up with the polls this season and the hourly updates on turnout today.

    Like

  145. Fla2025 Avatar
    Fla2025

    DW, keep in mind that Broward, ground zero for Democrats in Florida, is not regularly reporting. From the website you are referencing – “ Broward County is having election reporting issues. Data may slightly skew Republican until Broward resumes regular reporting. Broward last reported unknown”

    Like

  146. Marv Avatar
    Marv

    Jason, nice to see you again too.

    Like

  147. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    CNN interviewing some people who say they switched from El Sayed to Rogers because of the Stevens endorsement.

    The left wing Internet sites were full of hatred and jeering for Stevens, not to mention the TDS sites like Dispatch. They were unanimous that her endorsement did not matter.

    I am not so sure, because a lot of people are not political junkies reading this stuff. All they will see is that they voted for Stevens and now she endorsed Rogers.

    I find the idea that this HELPED El Sayed by galvanizing his vote difficult to accept. I think his base is highly motivated already.

    I think the Stevens endorsement was a net loss for El Sayed. If he was only up a few points it could make a difference. Of course, if he is up 11 like Sienna said it won’t matter.

    Like

  148. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Baris is highly invested in there being a blue tsunami.

    So I doubt he would say anything to dampen that even if he does not like early numbers.

    Like

  149. GF Avatar
    GF

    Baris = Bunu at this point. A Blue tsunami on an 1894 scale gives them an opening, in their view, to take over the party wholesale, hence why they push the narrative.

    Like

  150. DW Avatar
    DW

    “DW, I think Baris was referring to the overall partisan edge, which you said is now around GOP +7, not just the ED advantage.”

    Then Baris is nuts. Its never going to get to overall GOP +11, and it doesn’t need to get there. He is setting up a straw man.

    Like

  151. jaichind Avatar
    jaichind

    I share Baris skepticism on the Iran war. But the does not excuse him reading the data to fit his narrative. Unlikely him my non-support of the Iran war does not change my support of the domestic MAGA agenda.

    Like

  152. DW Avatar
    DW

    In the next hour the GOP will pass the total gain they made against the Dems in election day voting 2024.

    Like

  153. DW Avatar
    DW

    In just 15 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +7.0 to +7.1

    The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +4.1 to Dem 4.0

    Like

  154. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    4⃣ TEXAS APPROVAL RATINGS

    All six political leaders and congressional delegations tested register net-negative approval ratings in Texas.

    Approve / Disapprove

    Donald Trump: 44% / 53%
    Greg Abbott: 43% / 53%
    Ted Cruz: 45% / 53%
    John Cornyn: 17% / 67%
    Texas House Republicans: 43% / 52%
    Texas House Democrats: 41% / 50%

    Check out John Cornyn’s 17% approval rating. With this rating it appears he would have done worse than Paxton.

    Like

  155. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Baris has been lights out on his polling over the last 12 years. That said, I’m thinking his obsession over Iran has really colored his commentary over the last year. I’m hoping it’s his view bias that has affected his dire commentary and his dire predictions. Says he goes strictly by the numbers.

    Like

  156. DW Avatar
    DW

    Baris polled multiple times before the primary day finding Massie tied each time, and he promptly lost by 10.

    Like

  157. Marv Avatar
    Marv

    Hi Phil,

    I think that there is a direct link between your generally negative views on GOP election prospects this year and the mediocre performance of the Texas A&M football team so far.

    Like

  158. sane_voter Avatar
    sane_voter

    Broward is reporting. Their reported vote totals by hour are consistent with Palm Beach and Miami-Dade.

    Like

  159. DW Avatar
    DW

    yes, sane_voter, I meant to return to that topic and forgot. Broward was fixed hours ago. And GOP is only 8k votes behind there. If that holds its a disaster for Dems.

    Like

  160. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Marv, you may be right. Hadn’t thought about that. LOL

    Like

  161. Marv Avatar
    Marv

    DW,

    The G650 is unavailable until further notice. I’ve ordered the crew to study and discuss the Lear60 accident that happened here in So Fla Sunday.

    Liked by 1 person

  162. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    There seem to be some switches in Alaska because of the two-Sullivan-ploy that the Dems tried to confuse voters with.

    WOW! Fox News just found an Alaska voter who CONSIDERED voting Mary Peltola (D) for Senate but then SWITCHED to the REAL Dan Sullivan (R) when they found out about the ballot fraud scandal

    “[The fake Sullivan] HE’S MISSING IN ACTION.”

    “I switched.”

    This is incredible.

    I hope many Alaskans are doing the same thing. Do not let them steal it!

    Investigations are open BOTH at the state and federal level now. It’s not going away!

    Reporter: @MattFinnFNC

    Like

  163. esqblue5o Avatar
    esqblue5o

    NY Times final MI poll has Islamic Commie up 11%. 🗑️

    Like

  164. Marv Avatar
    Marv

    Hi janzam,

    I read and enjoy all of your posts, keep it up.

    Like

  165. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Red Eagles Politics midterm predictions are:

    🚨 FINAL REP PREDICTIONS

    🔵 House: 229 D, 206 R
    🔴 Senate: 51 R, 49 D
    🔵 Governor: 26 D, 24 R

    GCB Margin: D+7.6

    Like

  166. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I stopped going to Boris twittter feed. He is a scam artist. Fake poll

    Like

  167. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Good to see you again Marv!

    Like

  168. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Hi marv

    Like

  169. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    “Most Accurate Pollster in America, who correctly predicted every Trump’s victory, just gave a STUNNING Midterms prediction that will give Democrats Nightmares.

    John McLaughlin says Republicans WILL hold the Senate with 53 seats and come closer than expected in the House and there will be some MAJOR GOP surprise victories.

    McLaughlin says there is a massive upset brewing in Minnesota with Michelle Tafoya beating out Peggy Flanagan for Senate. A GOP pickup.

    He also says the Republican in the New York Governor’s race, Bruce Blakeman, is in striking distance of Kathy Hochul.”

    Like

  170. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    I hope he’s right about Tafoya – someone I’ve donated to twice.

    Like

  171. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I’ve ordered the crew to study and discuss the Lear60 accident that happened here in So Fla Sunday.”

    Don’t listen to the ATC recording if you don’t to be depressed.

    While the co pilot, the 20 year old is communicating what is happening, you can hear the pilot, a 55 year old from PA, reciting the lord’s prayer.

    Like

  172. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    If you look at the flight path they made a right turn right into a storm cell just a few miles wide at the wrong moment. Another minute flying straight and they would have avoided it.

    Like

  173. Marv Avatar
    Marv

    Aloha Tina,

    Like

  174. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Hey Marv, it seems clear the horizontal stabilizer is not on the plane on impact.

    Do you think it just broke off because of the aerodynamics of the dive or it was the reason for the accident.

    Like

  175. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Small change in Polymarket, R chances of holding the senate now up to 25%.

    Was under 20% this morning

    Like

  176. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    John McLaughlin says Republicans WILL hold the Senate with 53 seats and come closer than expected in the House and there will be some MAJOR GOP surprise victories.”

    Interesting, since the time for spinning is now over and the chance to muddle the waters to CYA is also over.

    Like

  177. Marv Avatar
    Marv

    Jason,

    I wasn’t depressed by listening to the ATC tapes, I was just really irritated by the whole chain of events, starting with the first contact with Miami Center off the west Florida coast. Also, basic rule…..never attempt to outclimb a rapidly building thunderstorm cell. Being on top of one of those things is extremely dangerous.

    Like

  178. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I only donated to Rogers and Paxton and my local congressman.

    But that is more than I said I would since I promised not to make any more political contributions.

    Like

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