- Too important to let anti-Semitic America-hating Bastard Bunu shut down the discussion.
- Polls begin to close in 30 minutes
- The Poll that Matters
- Monday Morning before Election Day
- Sunday Thread
New Book:
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrat +15 | 210 | 225 |
Polls begin to close in 30 minutes
147 responses to “Polls begin to close in 30 minutes”
First.
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From the tail end of the last thread;
Mark Halperin said a while ago, that he could easily see every competitive Senate race but North Carolina going red given the high-quality private pulling over the last couple of days. He also noted that they could all easily go blue as well, but the only real caveat he had in the damn favor was the Atlas poll which it seems was taken only of “adults“ instead of likely voters.
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Prediction – If Paxton loses, Jan will blame everybody except Paxton.
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Kentucky closes in 24 minutes. Watching KY-06.
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okay the Baris surge in Florida is on for the 5 o’clock hour. Looking like the GOP will add on only another 35k votes instead of 48k.
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Thank you to everyone posting data. I plan to follow the results exclusively on HHR. On the TV, I will be watching “Justified”.
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Scratch that…GOP up 43,675 for the 5:00 hour.
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Jeff, I’ll be watching the Mandalorian with the kiddos. We’re late to the party but they love it. Much happier than election returns.
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I think mark hatterin has changed his positions each day.
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CNN and MSWhatever have the best maps. Too bad you have to listen to the lefties.
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In just 25 minutes the GOP edge in FL jumped from +8.5 to +8.6
The shift from two years ago is down from Dem +2.6 to Dem 2.5
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R+682,975
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Was just listening to Abbott on Hannity. I don’t know if its just his personality he didn’t seem very enthused. Hannity kept saying he wanted a turnout of 3 million and Abbott twice said it would be about 2.5 million.
I just didn’t get a real positive vibe but I never really heard him speak before, maybe he is just kind of reserved. He made a good case for why the Dem shouldn’t win, but earlier Byron Donalds sounded very positive.
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Halperin says either he Rs or Ds could win?
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Jolly was up to 42% on Polymarket earlier.
Now down to 28%.
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ME, TX, MI, OH, AK still in the 70 percent range for the dems on the betting sites.
KS 65%
IA 51%
Odds R keep the senate up to 27% after being as low as 18% earlier.
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This is close and our side doesn’t do “exit poles”
@OpenSourceZone
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23m
Republicans vs Democrats on economy NBC Exit Poll Democrats: 41% (-2) Republicans: 37% (-
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as the Atlas poll which it seems was taken only of “adults“ instead of likely voters”
That might even include a lot of people who are not even eligible to vote.
Hope springs eternal.
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GOP nearing 700,000 vote cushion in FL
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Jason,
I think Gov Abbott has always been rather reserved in his speech pattern, he also is probably tired and just glad the campaign is finally over. Also, I’m pretty sure that he wins and so does Paxton, but by not as much as Abbott.
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what about the yute at 25%?
hriswithans
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37m
According to NBC News exit polling, the Great Latino Comeback for Democrats is apparently just 6 points on net (D-R). It was 33 points in 2018, 10 points in 2024, and now is 16 points. That’s D43 R27 I30. That is not what pre-election polling showed. Times/Siena National poll showed D+26 for Party ID and D+30 for Party Lean. (That poll was D+11 for the CGB all LVs). Times/Siena Composite Battleground polling was D+22 (TX IA KS MI AK OH ME).
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KY-06 just jumped up for the Dem on Kalshi. Now at 68%.
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IN numbers so far no looking good so far
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Tina, I’m not a fan of exit poles either.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Big momentum for (D) on polymarket senate races. Boo.
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Ford is beating Spartz right now in Indiana. Ford is leading with 63%. It says 29% reported!!!!
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If Indiana is correct, GOP is in for a very bad night.
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Indiana numbers are from early voting in Indianapolis suburbs.
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Betting market Kalshi just moved Mi, Kansas, Ohio, TX, Iowa, Alaska, Maine over to the R’s.
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Funny, janzam. You almost had me there.
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Victoria Spartz now favored to win. Odds are switching as drops are coming in.
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janzam,
Later tonight, Kalshi will show just that….
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Lots of FL coverage here. Any analysis on what the numbers actually mean? Is the 600,000 magic number key because R’s are expected to lose the I vote by 500,000 or so?
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Joe, from what I read earlier this morning, the Rs wanted a cushion of 600,000 to feel good about the statewide vote just in case the polls showing the independents breaking 75-25 against them were correct. I personally don’t think independents will break that sharply, but anything is possible.
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Remember, the IN first results are from early vote.
That had the MSM in a tizzy in 2024, didn’t pan out.
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Thanks GF. a 75/25 split in I’s would be wild especially in FL.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Eric Bolling reported the Kalshi movement in the states cited.
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But the scale of IN-5 early vote is 31% of the total vote and the Dems lead 63.6 to 36.4. I do not see how the GOP comes back from this. Hopefully this is localized to IN. I am fearful that it is not.
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I doubt the dem wins in Indiana. But if it is even close then that’s a bad sign for GOP.
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The IN secretary of state election is numbers so far is bad even factoring in for the fact they are all early vote.
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That Hamilton County District has been moving left over the last decade. If the Rs win the Election Day vote by only 15, they will scrape by a narrow win.
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But the scale of IN-5 early vote is 31% of the total vote and the Dems lead 63.6 to 36.4. I do not see how the GOP comes back from this.”
Depends where that vote is coming from.
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Votes are coming in from the urban areas.
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Wealthy exurbs of Indianapolis.
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just one other tidbit on the Fl numbers. Broward is the dem epicenter of the State. Today, Broward has had torrential downpours all day, continuing now. I’m talking sheets of rain and significant accumulation. I wonder if this had some effect in depressing dem turnout.
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KY-06 is 92% for the Dem on Kalshi.
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Stop the count.
Dixville Notch. Ayotte 6 Dem 1. Sununu 5 Dem 2
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You mean Ayotte – Villanova Law 1993
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Joy Behar tells Haley Stevens she should “keep her big mouth shut” and to “just be quiet.”
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655 pm comment is not mine
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Joy Behar is a self-gasser just like Dana Nessel
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New OH Governor?
@VivekGRamaswamy) is a danger to my state, and I need, you know, the friendships and the role models for everything that comes next.”
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KY numbers also not looking good. Sort of confirms the IN trends
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Spartz is cooked. IN5
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IN and KY results pretty much means its over in OH. Oh well.
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According to Fox News exit polling, 74% of voters said the Iran war was either a crucial or major factor affecting their vote.
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Looks like Donalds not trailing Moody’s vote by much.
I thought there would be a bigger difference.
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Trump had a chance to define the Iran war. He did not. He became a captive of events.
The ICE crackdown in Minnesota also got Dems motivated.
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Whatever the result, Trump now is free to bomb the crap out of Iran. I hope he does it sooner than later.
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Jason
-dementia don needs the keys taken away.
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MSNBC projects Ossoff will win. No surprise.
MSNBC stats guy is still really good.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Martin and Bradford Counties in FL are D+8 vs 2024 with >95% of votes reported
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D+8 comparing Donalds vs Trump
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Donalds is now ahead and most of the Panhandle hasn’t reported.
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If there’s a blue wave, will Jason admit that Trump-hatred had anything to do with it?
Asking for a friend.
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I am calling it for Donalds and Moody, Broward and Miami Dade are way ahead of the count.
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If there’s a blue wave, will Jason admit that Trump-hatred had anything to do with it?”
Zzzzzz…
But the answer is, of course, no.
When he won I also did not pretend Trump love did it either.
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If there is a blue wave, it will be about gas and food prices, the war and the normal loss for the incumbent party.
If Trump hatred decided elections, Trump wouldn’t have arguably won 3 in a row, or at least 2/3.
And its funny Bitter thinks Trump hatred decides elections, when he has said many times here that when Trump is on the ballot Rs win.
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Trump picked a bunch of lousy candidates again. And, he drove off winners again.
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If GOP loses S Carolina… disgusting.
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Could happen in SC. Bad candidate. Bad environment.
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Looks like Luna the nutjob squeaks by in FL after trailing all night.
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So Jason is going down with The Cult. None of the voters have ever even heard of Trump. Got it.
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Yeah J-Hole, looks like the wave is happening and its larger than I thought. I think Trump takes his frustrations out on Iran.
Big Joe, A-Hole.
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Moody wins
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The Denton County numbers look bad.
Election Night Reporting
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(Per sba)
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And its funny Bitter thinks Trump hatred decides elections, when he has said many times here that when Trump is on the ballot Rs win and when Trump is not on the ballot Rs don’t win.
Fixed it to what I have actually said.
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Paxton might cause Abbott to lose.
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Dems win 2 Florida seats from Republicans. These were redrawn to make it easier for Republicans to win. Stupid plan by the GOP.
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Graham at 29 cents on Kalshi for anyone wanting to take a shot.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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They were the incumbents, bl.
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And another redistricted seat goes to the Dem in Florida.
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And its funny Bitter thinks Trump hatred decides elections, when he has said many times here that when Trump is on the ballot Rs win and when Trump is not on the ballot Rs don’t win.
Fixed it to what I have actually said.”
So hard to justify Trump hatred if when he is on the ballot he wins.
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Jolly-Donalds on a knife’s edge in Florida.
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Abbott at 20 cents on Kalshi. Dayum.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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DecisionDeskHQ
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2m
Decision Desk HQ projects Byron Donalds wins the FL Governor General Election #DecisionMade: 8:28 PM EST
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At least GOP holds Florida Senate seat.
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Unimpressive win by Donalds.
As I said earlier, FL results DO matter, just like they did in 2024.
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Uthmeier won FL AG.
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Big Joe – Jason thinks voters have never heard of Trump.
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Moody did better as I had thought originally. But still she is only up by 3, will probably win by 4.
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Donalds is running 1.6% margin behind Moody
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Crazy that it took a presidential-level election day turnout in FL to win
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Spartz is going to lose in Indiana
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BL-
Many Democrats are very thankful for Trump tonight. Mid-terms always suck for the incumbent president, but tonight is an absolute embarrassment for Trump.
Obama, Biden, Bush have all been here, but this seems much worse.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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More election day votes were cast today than on election day in 2024
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Big Joe – Jason thinks voters have never heard of Trump.”
Zzzz…
What I said is “Trump hatred” is fictional as far as deciding elections.
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So not much left to hope for.
Collins in ME and Rogers in MI are two.
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I would have bet the llama Dems would not win SC.
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The only good news is that Josh Shapiro will never be nominated for President or VP because the anti-Semites won’t allow it.
The bad news is that all the other Dems are just as bad.
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A commie like Nixon winning 48% in FL IS a tsunami.
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You never know, Jason. Let’s count the votes and see. Meanwhile, Engling is creeping up to Birch Evans Bayh IV in the SoS race in Indiana. 3.1% behind with over 50% to count.
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I agree with Bitter that the gerrymandering Trump encouraged was stupid.
But I have always said here that watering down safe districts is dangerous during a wave election, you lose your cushion and you give up previously safe seats.
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I was right about south carolina
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The last Paul was not me
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Another lesson. Maybe running an ad by a candidate’s mom who stayed with the husband who abused that candidate was a bad strategy.
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Talarico winning the Dallas suburbs big time. I think Paxton is toast.
Maybe now Janzam will admit he was a bad candidate.
Nahhh…
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Actually so far Ramaswamy is running ahead of Husted.
I disagree with Bitter, the ad was fair game.
As Trump said, if his mother said something bad about him the Dems would certainly use it.
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I think even Cornyn would have lost tonight.
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I was right about south carolina”
Yep
And you might be right about 7 seats.
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Guys,
The real risk with gerrymandering is that safe districts become 55-45 type districts, and they can flip in a wave election, turning the gerrymander into a dummymander. And that is what’s happening.
This is an epic fail tonight for the GOP. I didn’t think it was possible due to the tribalism, but Dems overcame that.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Sayed running 5% behind the Gov race. Probably not enough
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I disagree with Bitter, the ad was fair game.
And it did not help. Stupid move.
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Super Intelligence? It’s called Transgender Intelligence now.
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Hello again. It’s been awhile. I’ve been busy with work and my oldest has been very ill for th pat few months but, after 23 years on HHR I never thought I’d see a night like this. It’s over. Once these dems get entrenched and all the tax increases and entitlements flow, it’s going to be a generation or maybe never again that any conservative, much less a republican wins
Gen Z starts voting en masse in 2028 (oldest Gen Z turns 31) and they LOVE socialism and hate AmericA.
It sucks
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Ticket splitting was huge in SC, the R candidate is ahead for governor.
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Vic,
Prayers for your, son. I hope everything will be ok.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Vic – I am sorry to hear about your son. I hope things turn better quickly.
It’s never over. I was here on election night when GWB won. Somebody posted that the Democrats were finished as a national party. Obviously not.
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Is it too late for Darlene Graham to declare that she is not a witch?
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How long do you have to post before someone steals your handle?
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Many Democrats are very thankful for Trump tonight.
Big Joe – Don’t tell Jason.
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I am working on deleting Bunu’s trash.
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DDHQ calls the House majority for the Dems.
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Husted has caught up somewhat.
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At this point if Abbott doesn’t come back. (Forget paxson. He’s gone) Texas becomes a sanctuary state and no republican will ever win the presidency again
Sad part s the bush wing down here is pulling for talarico and ipso facto Hinojosa to pay back trump for being mean. And it’s working. MAGA voters are staying home because they were trump voters. And that. My friends is the. Country.
Not sure who these people are going to find to pay taxes when companies pull out of Texas and the USA
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In my experience, it is not MAGA voters staying home. It is normie life-long Republicans who refused to vote for Paxton.
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Hope your son gets well soon Vic.
I agree with you.
I repeat it here all the time.
The educational system in this country has turned out too many socialists and the scale finally tipped.
This is not about Trump. It’s ideological.
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On C-Span2- The Young Turks
On C-Span3 – Conservative podcasters.
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Abbott is only running 2% ahead of Paxton.
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This is all on trump. He should have never started Iran. Middle East wars suck. He saw how it destroyed mute 43 (along with bush’s worst economy in 50 years. Midterms are brutal
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He should have spent the time ending the Ukrainian grift war with muh Russia. Diesel prices rose to the highest because of sniffy and pooty. Gasoline is bad but not as high as 2022.
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I agree with bl mostly. But my tongue on the stupid foreign war.
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Tafoya with a big lead.
But only 1%
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Collins is running way ahead of the R governor candidate, so there is a lot of ticket splitting.
Let’s see if it is enough.
Also the R is winning in ME-04
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Yep…his focus has been on international issues the whole 2 years. Inflation out of control still. Gas prices are ridiculous. He was in over his head again with Iran just like with Covid. His deficit spending along with Bidens has crushed the middle class for 6 years.
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Bitter has a lot of work to do getting rid of Bunu posts.
That is not me talking about AIPAC
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Yep
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Gas is high but still lower than 2022. Diesel is the problem. $8.85 here. Lots of businesses using diesel obviously
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trump can correct but the arsonists control everything. Lots of vetoe.
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and j saw Rds have to talk smack. He won’t be the nominee in 2028. I do like many of his policies
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Woke Commie Dems will continue to destroy our country.
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Require photo ID passing in both NC and OH, easily
In WV citizenship requirement passing 80-20.
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Redistricting referendum going down in MD but I don’t know what it is about.
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If Senate is gone we need to keep our boys on SCOTUS happy and healthy.
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So Kansas, Texas, Georgia , Ohio going Blue. That is tragic.
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tired of deleting bunu posts, so just going to shut down the thread and go to bed
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