And the polls are all over the place.
Grayhouse: IA, Hinson +2 | 48/46
Trafalgar: TX, Paxton +0.6 | 48.1/47.5
AtlasIntel: TX, Talarico +6 | 51/45 <<<Poll of adults
Research Company: OH, Brown +1 | 45/44
Research Company: MN, Flanagan +5 | 48/43
Research Company: MI, El-Sayed +2 | 48/46
UNH: NH, Pappas +12 | 54/42
UNH: ME-2, LaPage (R) +5 | 52/47
UNH: ME: Jackson +9, 54/45
163 responses to “Monday Morning before Election Day”
Haley Stevens thought she was in the big tent…just found out just how small it is, as pictured above. I wish I had time to do Homer Hedgehog cartoons at the moment.
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oil is down over $6 in pre market.
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Daugherty: JUST IN: There are over 100,000 THOUSAND Jewish people in Michigan and this Jewish voter says there is HUGE MOMENTUM for Mike Rogers (R) over Abdul El Sayed (D)
This is great news!
“I hope that most people and most Jewish people going to the ballot tomorrow will vote for Mike Rogers for safety and security over Abdul — who is an anti-Semite and who will not keep the Jewish community in Michigan safe. I think that there’s only one choice for the Jewish community. I hope if people are undecided, they really look at what’s happening and Abdul’s divisiveness and his comments!”
Even Democrat Haley Stevens is backing Rogers now. Her own mother told CNN she was called a “Zionist pig”
A CORE DEM VOTER BLOC is RUNNING AWAY from them
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People who have their heads in the sand thinking communism will never happen here are completely ignorant of the fact that in seed form its already started.
Look at what just happened to Haley Stevens. THAT is exactly the sort of thing described in The Iron Broom, the book I have featured here all summer and fall.
Any person who speaks out or takes actions that in any way go against THE PARTY, is quickly punished, abused, demoted, and the person’s offspring might well end up starving or being sent off to guard prisoners in a Siberian gulag. Again, SEED form. Stevens won’t be sent to a gulag. But the pattern of the behavior of THE PARTY has started.
Years ago, Dem leadership would have responded to Stevens by saying, “Haley is a great member of our party, and was a great member of congress. We don’t agree with her endorsement, but she is a valuable member of our team.”
Those days are gone. You buck the party, you pay the price.
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.Yet I guess this is now acceptable thinking.
@AbdulElSayed says it’s ok for MEN to be in girl’s locker rooms. Why? “Well because they are going to find out about it on the internet anyway”
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This proves my point about the woke NFL no longer being about football, an idea which Bitter had ridiculed.
And this is on a SPORTS site.
“And judging by the reaction to photos shared by the Chiefs and NFL, plenty of fans were paying just as much attention to his pregame fashion as they were to the football ahead.“
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Bitter says I have TSDS because I point out how ridiculous it is to focus on airhead Marxist apparatchik Taylor Swift 20 times a game.
Question to Bitter:
If Taylor Swift was a MAGA activist wearing a MAGA hat and married to Travis Swift (nee Kelce) would the networks/NFL focus on her 20 times a game?
Be honest.
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Daugherty: JUST IN: There are over 100,000 THOUSAND Jewish people in Michigan and this Jewish voter says there is HUGE MOMENTUM for Mike Rogers (R) over Abdul El Sayed (D)”
There are like 130k Jews, say 100k voters.
Say 80 k vote, Jews vote at higher rates than other demographics.
A 75/25 split is 60k-20k for the Dems (previously)
Reverse it and you have 60k-20k for Rs.
Optimistically you take 40k votes from Dems and give 40k votes to Rs.
I guess in a close election that could matter.
It would have made Rogers senator in 2024.
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Because the Lear jet crash yesterday was near Mar El Lago the Internet is full of morons claiming it was shot down by a missile.
Paul will believe it.
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Sayed at 79% on Kalshi. Should I put some money on Rogers?
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My prediction for the midterm outcomes was a “rosy” one. However, after reading the following article, such an outlook dimmed.
https://archive.ph/2026.11.01-172047/https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2026/10/31/texas-republicans-sweating-over-low-turnout-early-voting/
Sent from my iPhone
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Yes because she is a self-made Billionaire with tens of millions of fans around the world. 20 years ago, she was singing for change in coffee shops at New Jersey beaches. That is my honest answer.
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We disagree.
If the airhead Marxist apparatchik was a Trump supporter wearing a MAGA hat, she would be shown zero times a game.
That is my honest answer.
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I have to agree with jason on this one. No matter how successful, the MAGA hat is an automatic disqualifier.
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However, after reading the following article, such an outlook dimmed.”
I thought you said Paxton was a great candidate.
You mean he is having trouble beating a freako weirdo Christian hating, meat hating, fossil fuel hating, trans activist, late term abortion advocate in a red state Trump and Cruz crushed the Dems 2 years ago?
What happened?
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A CORE DEM VOTER BLOC is RUNNING AWAY from them but it won’t matter because so many Jews have already voted in Michigan before yesterday’s development.
Fixed it.
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In the Dem/Soc/Comm party are the loons coming home to roost?
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oil is down over $6 in pre market.
Great. Voters don’t care because it won’t be reflected in gas prices for weeks. Both can be true.
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Here is what I think would be an interesting development IF there is a blue tsunami.
Trump says ok I hear you, time for fresh blood, I am resigning, Vance is President. He fades off into the sunset, playing golf, building his library, maybe a few more big ticket business deals.
Vance nominates picks y crimes, taking the wind out of the Dem “investigation” sails.
Vance, having been President, decides he does want to spend more time with family, doesn’t run in 2028, clearing the way for Rubio’s nomination. Rubio is a lock against Kamala, probably any of the far left Dems, the only type that will be nominated.
Because nothing will be accomplished in the next 2 years the Dems cannot run on their record or against Trump in 2028.
Rs win in 2028 across the board.
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https://nypost.com/2026/11/02/us-news/trump-says-hell-use-preemptive-pardons-to-protect-staff-allies-if-dems-take-congress/
Well, he learned something from Biden.
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Sorry, missing a piece there.
Here is what I think would be an interesting development IF there is a blue tsunami.
Trump says ok I hear you, time for fresh blood, I am resigning, Vance is President. He fades off into the sunset, playing golf, building his library, maybe a few more big ticket business deals.
Vance picks Rubio for VP and pardons Trump and family and cabinet members of all possible crimes, taking the wind out of the Dem “investigation” sails.
Vance, having been President, decides he does want to spend more time with family, doesn’t run in 2028, clearing the way for Rubio’s nomination. Rubio is a lock against Kamala, probably any of the far left Dems, the only type that will be nominated.
Because nothing will be accomplished in the next 2 years the Dems cannot run on their record or against Trump in 2028.
Rs win in 2028 across the board.
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won’t matter bitter, some low level judge will throw out the pardons.
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A-holes think alike sometimes.
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Voters don’t care because it won’t be reflected in gas prices for weeks.”
Actually, not true, as a commodity the prices are reflected almost immediately.
However, other factors do apply, such as inventories and refining capacity.
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here is some evidence that the AtlasIntel poll completely missed the MAGA Republicans, and found the DSA among Dems:
2028 Primary:
Rubio 46, Vance 33, Trump Jr. 2, DeSantis 5, Kennedy Jr. , Haley , Cruz 1, Carlson 3, Youngkin 1, Ramaswamy
Ocasio-Cortez 18, Ossoff 18, Buttigieg 16, Harris 13, Newsom 9, Kelly 9, Shapiro 3, Beshear 4, Pritzker 3, Booker 2
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Because Trump is a narcissist and probably doesn’t really care about 2028, he wouldn’t resign if Dems win the House and Senate.
But I think he should, not because I think he is a bad President, to the contrary, I think he has mostly been on target on most issues, but because as a lame duck without Congress he has no chance of advancing any agenda beyond executive orders.
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Daugherty: WOW! Stephen A. Smith just dropped this prediction: If Dems win tomorrow and go psycho mode, THEY ARE FORFEITING 2028 because Americans will see just how bad they are
“If the Democrats pursue impeachment against Trump, I’m GUARANTEEING that a Republican will win the presidency in 2028. You can book it!”
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Daugherty: JUST IN: Late deciders are swinging Republican by +9 points — NYT
NYT also says white Democrats are flooding their poll responses compared to white Republicans.
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Shapiro would never win a Dem primary contest although he might be a stronger GE contender than all those other options.
He could talk himself blue in the face but his past comments supporting Israel are poison in today’s Dem primary environmet.
Ossof and Beashear would the best options, but I don’t see either beating Rubio.
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“Ossoff and Beashear”???
No way they get anywhere near the nomination. Not unless over the next two years someone in the Democratic Party steps up and purges the party of the DSA. But that’s not gonna happen. The party is already the DSA. They control it. Look what just happened to Stevens.
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A Rubio DeSantis ticket would be great, and even though it would be Hispanic-White it is 2 men, might need more “diversity”.
DeSantis would be a great AG pick for a Rubio administration.
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No way they get anywhere near the nomination.”
I didn’t say they will get the nomination.
I said they are more electable in a GE than the others.
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Gas prices will be under $4 throughout a lost of the swing states today.
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Late deciders are swinging Republican by +9 points — NYT”
I hope this is right, but I don’t think it can be measured that easily.
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However, in states like Texas and Kansas, it would make sense that recalcitrant Rs that don’t like the candidate finally have to make a decision and go back to their roots.
Hope springs eternal.
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The Internet is full of anti-Stevens posts that minimize her endorsement.
However, in cafes, diners and workplaces across MI today, people will be talking about Stevens and her endorsement.
Paul yesterday said “it might help El Sayed”.
I don’t see how.
The impact is either minimal or significant, but there is no way it is positive for El Sayed.
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But let’s not fool ourselves.
Shapiro, Beshear and Ossof are all far leftists, and as such they would push the far left agenda as far as possible.
They would sign anything a far left Congress sends them.
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“but there is no way it is positive for El Sayed.”
Exactly. Many Dems would be hesitant to either leave the senate line blank or go so far as vote for Rogers. But Stevens essentially gave them the green light, that its okay to be a Democrat and once in a while do something different for the good of the country.
This is why the communist party immediately kicked her out. To blunt the effect of her endorsement.
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New ALASKA Insider Advantage poll:
Tied at 48 first round, tied at 50 second round.
Their prior poll was Peltola by 2.
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A more balanced analysis of tomorrow’s midterm results, no matter which way they go, by Victor Davis Hansen:
“When and how do these predicted electoral waves not overwhelm the status quo?
Often, they deflate because voters vent their frustrations with an incumbent during the campaign season, but when they finally cast their ballots in private, they start to consider the alternative. The voters begrudgingly decide that the incumbent or the incumbent party’s candidates are at least the lesser of two evils, in the spirit of “better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.”
In 2026, the rise of openly Islamist-socialist candidates and the proliferation of venomous antisemitic tropes and ads may have made the midterms, for many voters, less a conventional contest between Democrats and Republicans than a choice between importing Europe’s troubles and preserving normality at home.
Second, given our unique system of constitutional government, even if the blue wave does happen, presidents on occasion can become more popular after losing Congress. They can also, even without majorities in Congress, use executive orders to do a lot of things domestically and almost anything they wish abroad—as long as they keep ironclad support among their own sizable congressional minority and thus prevent veto-proof congressional action.
The bottom line is that these midterms may not go quite as predicted. And even if they do, this much-predicted blue wave may have far less impact than most think—given the ever-growing powers of a president and his executive branch and the unsavory nature of many of his new would-be opponents.”
https://amgreatness.com/2026/11/02/midterm-election-incoherences-misadventures-and-paradoxes/
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Hansen underestimates the hatred of the far left DSA which now dominates the party.
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Those NYT/Siena polls are something.
El Sayed by double digits. Kansas blowout.
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yeah jason, but they admitted that they didn’t reach MAGA voters, so just proceeded without them.
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two years ago NY Times/Siena had Harris winning NV by 2 (off 5) and NC by 3 (off 6).
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they also had Trump +6 in Ohio, and it turned out to be +11.
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I thought you said Paxton was a great candidate.
I never said Paxton was a “great” candidate, but one that the energetic grass roots supported double-digit over Cornyn! One might even speculate Cornyn would be doing even worse than Paxton at this point in time.
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One of the pilots in the Florida crash identified as Nathalia Gadelha, 20, from Boca Raton. She is a US citizen of Brazilian parents.
She got her license at 17 while still in HS, before she got a driver’s license.
The Lear jet has a reputation of being a rather unforgiving plane.
If I was rich enough to charter a plane from TX to the Bahamas, I would demand a more experienced pilot.
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One might even speculate Cornyn would be doing even worse than Paxton at this point in time.”
LOL
He would be up by 10 and no serious money to do it.
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Hansen underestimates the hatred of the far left DSA which now dominates the party.
Hatred is not a sustainable driving force. It can work in the short run, but not in a longer foreseeable future.
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I never said Paxton was a “great” candidate, but one that the energetic grass roots supported double-digit over Cornyn”
So he has energized the grass roots?
Can you explain?
“You mean he is having trouble beating a freako weirdo Christian hating, meat hating, fossil fuel hating, trans activist, late term abortion advocate in a red state Trump and Cruz crushed the Dems 2 years ago?”
Could it be that he has had trouble attracting “non grass roots” votes?
And why would that be?
All ears.
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“Hatred is not a sustainable driving force. It can work in the short run, but not in a longer foreseeable future.”
I worked pretty well in the USSR from 1922 through 1991. Read The Iron Broom.
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Daugherty: BREAKING UPDATE: ANOTHER Michigan Democrat crosses over! Former Detroit Congressman Hansen Clarke (D) just endorsed Mike Rogers (R) for U.S. Senate over Abdul El Sayed
“Choi Clarke and I stand with Congresswoman Haley Stevens in supporting Mike Rogers for the U.S. Senate.”
“I served with Mike in the U.S. House of Representatives. I know that he is committed to improving the quality of our lives, protecting our nation’s security, and working with Democrats to get the job done.”
First Haley Stevens, now Hansen Clarke!!
The people who know Abdul’s party best are running to Rogers the day before the election 🔥
The Democrats in Michigan are PANICKING!
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I hope Paxton wins.
If he loses, not only will it probably mean Rs lose control of the senate, TX will now be deemed a purple state and the Dems will continue to invest heavily there.
But he was a horrible choice, Trump should have bought him off somehow and supported Cornyn.
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Quantus and Trafalgar both have Paxton leading (barely). In 2024 they polled 15 states between them, and only in one of them (Quantus poll of VA) did they over-estimate the Republicans against the final result.
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New Trafalgar of OHIO has Brown up 1.5. The prior poll was Brown +3.9:
Husted 45.1
Brown 46.6
So it seems they are picking up late movement to Husted. Hoping it moves enough.
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Two years ago Trafalgar had OHIO Trump +7 and it ended up being Trump +11
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Jason – we’ll see tomorrow whether or not the grass roots perform as well as they did when they primaried out Cornyn. And, even if Paxton loses saying Cornyn would have won is spinning pie-in-the-sky yarns.
DW, hatred to me is like a poison. Always comparing the contents of The Iron Broom to present circumstances is certainly a red flag warning. However, incalculable intervening factors can dramatically change events, where an elixir counters such hatred.
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Jason – we’ll see tomorrow whether or not the grass roots perform as well as they did when they primaried out Cornyn”
Nah. Unless Paxton wins by 10 we already know he was a bad candidate, not to mention the amount of money spent to prop up this albatross.
And the idea the Cornyn would not have gotten more Indies than Paxton is of course ridiculous.
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Jason – we’ll see tomorrow whether or not the grass roots perform as well as they did when they primaried out Cornyn”
The grass roots won’t elect anybody in Texas.
You need at least a unified R party to do that, or you need some Indies.
Paxton has neither.
If he scrapes by, it will be because of Cornyn supporters and Indies like me who who vote for him as last resort considering the alternative.
You better hope there are a lot of people like me in Texas.
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Rs in my area are trying to get out the vote.
Several robo calls from different outfits and I got an email with the list of R voters who requested a ballot but did not send it in yet.
At this point, it is better they vote in person, the mail will not get there before 8 pm tomorrow which is the rule in PA (except Dem areas).
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Had just a few thousand people in MI, WI and NV not split their votes by voting for Trump and then the Dem for Senate the GOP would have 56 seats instead of 53.
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Those 3 states were carried by Trump but in the aggregate the R candidates for the senate got like 50k votes less than he did.
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The MI support for El Sayed is hard to fathom.
First, he hardly won the primary.
Second, 2 years ago MI voted for Trump supposedly because they didn’t want a far left wing zealot like Kamala to win.
Third, Rogers is not a far right MAGA type so he should not scare Indies, while being conservative enough to keep the the MAGA vote (hopefully)
So you have a case of an extreme leftist Muslim against a somewhat moderate R.
If the polls are wrong, if is because they are not capturing any rejection of El Sayed for his extreme views or the fact he is a Muslim (like it or not it will turn off some voters).
If he wins despite this baggage in a swing state we are in real trouble. Same with Talarico in TX. Or the fake pastor in KS.
You can see Brown winning in OH, he was there for many terms. Collins in ME, basically a blue NE state. Cooper is relatively popular in NC.
But those other 3 would mean an ideological shift of massive proportions with serious consequences.
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New MICHIGAN poll by Trafalgar has El-Sayed up only 1.2, last poll was +1.8.
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So if Trafalgar is missing any of the hidden Rogers support, then he wins.
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New RASMUSSEN:
Hinson 47, Turek 46
Their prior poll was Turek +4
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And it cannot be stressed enough that in the MI Primary, El-Sayed fell 9 points short of the polling, squeaking by Stevens by a single point. And it was unexpected. Stevens was portrayed as flailing the last few days of the campaign.
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Jason, did you make an incognito visit to RRH? I someone as “Lupica” and immediately thought “Lupita.”
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New FLORIDA poll by independent pollster Targoz Market Research
Moody 52%
Nixon 43%
Donalds 50%
Jolly 43%
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There is one possible clue that suggests MAGA voters will turn out tomorrow. The Florida early vote numbers indicated that state-wide, the GOP did not turn out for in person early voting like they did in 2024. That’s not good news. However, they broke it down by county, and in many of the northern counties that border AL and GA, the hardest core MAGA part of the state, these counties turned out about the same or in several cases STRONGER than in 2024.
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“I never said Paxton was a “great” candidate, but one that the energetic grass roots supported double-digit over Cornyn! One might even speculate Cornyn would be doing even worse than Paxton at this point in time.”
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BOOM
FINAL EMERSON OHIO poll
SENATE:
🔴 Jon Husted: 48.3% (+2.5)
🔵 Sherrod Brown: 45.8%
GOVERNOR:
🔵 Amy Acton: 48.4% (+0.1)
🔴 Vivek Ramaswamy: 48.3%
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BOOM
FINAL EMERSON MAINE SENATE poll
🔴 Susan Collins: 50.6% (+1.2)
🔵 Troy Jackson: 49.4%
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If those two polls are correct, we hold the senate.
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Need to get Texas in ljne and hope ak holds given the stupid voting system there and the shenanigans. The Rs should have been on top of the scam since June
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Insider Advantage has Ossoff up 7. Not quite the blowout others have found there in Georgia.
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whatever happens tomorrow, we have already seen such wildly different polling of races, even taken by different pollsters at the same time, that the very future of polling seems to be in jeopardy.
The problems are many.
Most people now don’t answer the phone unless they recognize the name/number calling.
Text messages received from unknown sources come with a link to participate in the poll. But anyone who is the least bit tech savvy has been taught to never click a link that is not known to be safe as you could be clicking to download malware.
Then with the new America we live in where everything and anything can be weaponized against you, many will refuse to say how they will vote out of fear of reprisal.
And finally, with the coming of AI, we have no idea yet how easily it would be for scammers to manipulate a poll to adversely skew the results.
Polling might just be a casualty of the information age, which of course is a bit ironic. It might come to volunteers going door to door asking people how they think their neighbors will vote.
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No matter what happens tomorrow, I still have to work until I die at my desk.
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FINAL EMERSON TEXAS poll
SENATE:
🔵 James Talarico: 49.8% (+1.4)
🔴 Ken Paxton: 48.4%
GOVERNOR:
🔴 Greg Abbott: 49.7% (+0.8)
🔵 Gina Hinojosa: 48.9%
I doubt Abbott wins by only 1 point. So this is hopefully good news, if the gap between Abbott and Paxton is only 2.2
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Jason, did you make an incognito visit to RRH? I someone as “Lupica” and immediately thought “Lupita.”
An obvious impostor.
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I doubt Abbott wins by only 1 point. So this is hopefully good news, if the gap between Abbott and Paxton is only 2.2″
Yep, I think if Abbott wins by less than 5 Paxton is toast.
But I think Abbott wins by at least 6.
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One of two things will happen tomorrow. Either the GOP will get blown out, or this will be the biggest polling miss since Alf Landon in 1936.
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HOST: “Is it possible that anybody in your campaign was potentially part of that conspiracy to plant Dan J?”
PELTOLA: “I have no idea…”
Shades of “to be best of my knowledge”
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My prediction is -12 in the House and -2 in the Senate.
My wish list for Dem defeats in this order are:
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Jeff G, I understand why you say that. I really do. And yet not all the polling has been hard left. Its literally been all over the place. Released in the last three days have been generic ballots ranging from Dem +3 to Dem +15. UNH says that Collins will lose by NINE in Maine, but we flip ME-2 to red by FIVE points. Then Emerson polled Maine just days after UNH, and they have Collins ahead.
Tomorrow I will post that chart one more time, and it has the A and B rated pollsters showing mostly red in the most competitive senate races, while the C through F rated pollsters are almost entirely blue.
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So to get to -2 in the Senate I am sacrificing Whatley, Sullivan, and Husted and calling MI for Rogers.
I think the GOP wins ME, TX, and KS.
I just can’t imagine that over so many years Collins has not built up a really good GOTV organization in a relatively unpopulated state. I think that is how she defied the polls last time.
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I will be here to blame trump tomorrow.
-free passer
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jason I am feeling a lot better at the moment about Ohio and Alaska.
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I will certainly blame Trump if there is a blue tsunami.
But not the Iran war, which I support. My main criticism is that he could have planned to keep the Straight of Hormuz open from the beginning, it took him too many months to settle on the present strategy, which is a good one. Iran starved, straight open. But unfortunately there was too much oil supply disruption at the beginning and stocks never recovered, keeping gas prices high.
His stupid tariffs and trade wars, which kept prices high and gave the Dems a loaded gun to shoot him with.
I will also blame the deadender morons that thought nominating Ken Paxton was a good idea.
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Dw, the 545 pm post (Vivek) is not from me,
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South Carolinian here. No need to worry about Graham losing.
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jason I am feeling a lot better at the moment about Ohio and Alaska.”
So we don’t lose ANY senate seats besides NC.
I hope to God you are right.
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I am not worried about Graham. Or Ricketts. Or Moody.
If they lose, we is f—ked.
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Not clicking on any Bunu post with “Adolf” in it.
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Bunu was always a national socialist, so no surprise he likes the Dem platform.
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There’s no question that nuclear-armed Iran would bring stability to the region.”
There is no question Hitler’s conquest of Europe/Russia/North Africa would bring stability to the region.
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“So we don’t lose ANY senate seats besides NC.”
My biggest concerns right now are KS and TX. We could lose one or both in addition to NC.
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I am still not ruling out a surprise upset in Minnesota. Their candidate is filthy with all the fraud that happened there. Not all opposition to Flanagan might show in the polling.
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Zogby generic ballot is D+6
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Good info on the polls and what is taking place everywhere.
I just finished the last 4 seams in driveway. Could not start til after 12 noon. Two trips to Lowe’s for supplies, one before I started and one toward the end when I needed another tube or so.
I will be a sore mo-fo tomorrow….
Taking Goofball to vote tomorrow at 100. He is voting red.
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Election night will be interesting.
Then we leave at 5 a.m.Wednesday to catch flight to MN to drive 4 hours to N. Wisconsin to see son #1 family.
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I have consistently said I thought Collins would survive in Maine. She has have had to have built up a good campaign organization over her many years served plus she has ALWAYS considerably outperformed her poll numbers. I hope that is the case this year, but I have to admit the recent polls in Maine have spooked me. I thought by now she’d have a lead.
Paxton? I’m not optimistic. Exits in 2018 showed Beto beating Cruz by just three points among indies when Cruz won by 2.6 points statewide. Polls across the board have continuously shown Freako beating Paxton by 12 to 15 points among that group. Combine that with the fact that Paxton is losing 10% of the Republican vote and I don’t see how the math works out this year. I hate to say it, but I can see Paxton losing by as many as 5 or 6. Pains me to say that. Oh, how it pains me. It’s a disaster for my state. I just hope he doesn’t take Abbott down with him. That could actually happen.
I hope we can squeak out 2 of three among Iowa, Kansas, and Alaska. Iowa looks like the best chance of the three. Kansas just scares the hell out of me (never thought I’d see the day) and Alaska has the Democratic dirty trick going on. Total disgrace.
NC of course is already gone. Ohio? Probably not in this environment. Michigan? You’d think that would be the one race where the voters would never vote in a Muslim terrorist sympathizer. Yet I have failed to see one poll yet with Rogers ahead. Not one.
I’ll say 53-47 Democrats. It could slip to 54-46 easily.
House of course will change hands. The only question is by how much. I’m thinking a Democratic majority of anywhere from 235 to (if it’s a really bad night), 240.
I would love to be wrong. How I’d love to be wrong!
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We have an excellent Republican candidate running in Minnesota for the senate. Too bad it’s Minnesota. What a waste.
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Nationwide I say it will end up D+3 OR D+4.
But that number will vary a great deal state to state…
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Tyson Group has Rogers ahead 2 in michigan phil. Lots of polls with low single digits for El-Sayed, and remember he fell NINE points short of polling in the primary.
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AtlasIntel just dropped a MN poll showing Flanagan over Tafoya only 48/46
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and zogby has MI in a new poll just 51/49 for the terrorist. Rogers down only two…so I think Rogers has it.
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I did not eat lunch today.
After finishing driveway, sitting and smoking while scrolling.
Guess I need to eat…
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so three of the last four polls of MI have been El-Sayed by one or two.
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I hope that if the Ds have bad night inn MN, they don’t burn the airport down.
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El-Sayed, and remember he fell NINE points short of polling in the primary.
Zzzzzzzz. Paxton romped over Cornyn in the primary. Irrelevant now.
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Nasdaq 100 in correction territory now. Perfect set up for a 12-month long play. Markets outperform over the 12-month period following a mid-term election.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Less than 24 hours before the first polls close. How can any pollster release a poll with 11% undecided. Unprofessional.
Big Joe, A-HOle
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Bitter, Trump endorsement of Paxton came very late before the runoff
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GA still feels like Ossoff +8 and KLB +4.
Methodology: mailings received, ads viewed, chatter from my network of GA peeps.
Big Joe, A-Hole.
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”Nasdaq 100 in correction territory now. Perfect set up for a 12-month long play. Markets outperform over the 12-month period following a mid-term election.”
Joe, I saw a sign at the Raytheon office that said “buy defense after midterms“ I assume that your strategy, being tech related, ties into that advice.
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GF, not giving any advice, just pointing out that historically the 12-month period after a mid-term is a very good stretch. Best way to take advantage is to just buy the market (QQQ for tech, SPY for broader S&P 500). Individual sectors are riskier but there’s plenty of growth in AI/Tech and that sector has been beat down pretty good this past week or so.
Not surprised Raytheon would want to pump defense, but that’s too risky for me because defense is too tied to politics.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Big Joe, and short oil. Well it should have been done at $1.05+
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Whoops, $105+
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Not official RTX advice, just a note I saw on a colleague’s whiteboard. He is the investing type, but I didn’t want to open that door with him as I am the client, he is the vendor. Thanks!
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Bitter, Trump endorsement of Paxton came very late before the runoff
And he should have stayed out of it or endorsed Cornyn.
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Trump’s approval rating is 100%. GOP will win 435 House seats all Senate races.
-Cult Member
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I should have sold oil. But, oil is down on hope of a deal. It won’t take much for hope to disappear.
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Yeah GF, best not to mix business with anything else…. lol
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters.
She noted some of the issues that the black community has with El-Sayed there: “Some would not vote for him if he walked down the street holding Kamala Harris’ hand,
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“There are a number of people that don’t even know that they can split their ballot in the general election,” Democrat City Councilwoman Mary Waters told The Post in an interview.
“Please don’t feel as though that you cannot, if you liked Mike Rogers, that you cannot vote for him. You can, if you want to,” she said.
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An optimistic take
https://townhall.com/columnists/larryoconnor/2026/11/02/why-im-still-not-buying-the-blue-tsunami-n2685782
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Pee Hole?
Really?
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I hope Big Joe A-hole is wrong that far leftist Bottoms will be GA governor.
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Here we go.
VoteHub: Expect to See Mike Rogers’ Lead Vanish Overnight Thanks to ‘Late Ballots’
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Non partisan? LOL
The nonpartisan political handicapper Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of the 2026 Michigan Senate race to lean Democratic.
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Tina, Oil is going to be tough after the mid-terms. Volatility can spike any day. \CL options have been decent if you play volatility.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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AtlasIntel just dropped a MN poll showing Flanagan over Tafoya only 48/46″
Yet they have the generic ballot at D +15
Figure that one out.
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J-Hole, it’s going to come down to the Confederate vote. Will the Confederates come out for Jackson? We shall see…
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Record setting Martinsburg and Shepherd University standout QB and now Chicago Beats backup QB Tyson Bagent may get traded to the Ravens..
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There are a lot of down ballot races that will be interesting to watch.
–MN AG Ellison…
–NY Letticia James…
–GA governor race…
–Mayor in LA…
–In IL, one county has a non binding referendum to seceded from IL and become its own state…
–Is there a similar thing on Tuesday in Oregon for western counties to leave Oregon…?
–MD constitutional amendment to allow legislature to redraw CDs before 2030 census…
–WV constitutional amendment to require that voters in WV must be legal U.S. citizens…
–VA CD races…hey DW, saw a report that said the VA turnout has been huge so far…Good or bad for the ever shrinking R seats?
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@scotus_wire
·
7h
BREAKING: In a 2-1 vote, the Ninth Circuit lifted restrictions on the Trump administration’s efforts to have states set aside ballots from suspected noncitizens, allowing it to resume such requests, warn election officials of prosecution, and pursue related investigative steps.
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Socialism or not quite yet?
That is the burning question.
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Let’s hope the professor is wrong.
“Data scientist Thomas Miller’s site handicapping outcomes for the U.S. Senate races now shows overwhelming odds that the Democrats will take control, numbers much more commanding than even the polls and prediction markets are showing.
As of around 9 a.m. ET on Monday, Miller’s site, Virtualtout.io, gave the Democrats a 90% chance of winning at least 51 seats. In recent days, the GOP’s chances of keeping control of the upper chamber have virtually collapsed, dropping from 23% on Oct. 26 to under 10% now.”
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Meanwhile, Shapiro has done NOTHING to even grant Lupita voting rights, let alone restore them.
As such, I am voting for Garrity!
“Democrat Governor Abigail Spanberger “restored” the voting rights of convicted felon Biscuit Rigsby.
Who is dead…and a dog. Which makes sense, as dead people, animals and felons are some of-the most loyal democrats.”
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Evidently 9th circus was stayed. It will now be before the full court. Yet yesterday Bosoberg ruled that the exec cannot investigate voter fraud.
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So far GOP election day turnout in Florida is robust….and the panhandle just opened
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I am looking forward to the predictions on this thread throughout the day as people analyze the significance of the sizes of lines in different states.
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Walt, depends on where the turnout in Virginia is strong
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Rs plus 24 in fl. Panhandle not open yet/about to open.
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I have seen 3 Amish buggies go by. Maybe they are going to vote.
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Fl will be close. Donald’s is not liked in the racist panhandle.
Rs will cross over in large numbers
Ignore the reg #s. Our poles matter more
-MSM
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Every election you read about “record turnout” etc. by the MSM.
In 2024 at MS NOW they couldn’t stop talking about the “long lines at university campuses” and “Philadelphia Dem precinct captains have hit their numbers” etc.
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I voted. A few years ago, the voting machines were replaced by scanners where you fill in your ballot by pen.
Historical note – The reason that PA has wide-open mail-in ballots is that Republican kook and 2022 Governor candidate Doug Mastriano traded away the ability to vote straight ticket by party (which he believed Democrats) in exchange for mail-in ballots.
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Yeah, that was really stupid.
Cost Trump PA in 2020.
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Going to vote in about a half hour.
I will vote for Rs as many times as the machine allows.
Don’t know what they have in Radnor, but here it is still touch screen voting machines.
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Rs in the PA legislature were shocked and awed by Covid and agreed to give Dems the chance to cheat in 2020 and every subsequent election.
Idiots.
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J-Hole, it’s going to come down to the Confederate vote. Will the Confederates come out for Jackson? We shall see…
Big Joe, A-Hole”
So if whites in GA don’t vote for a far leftist black kook who made a mess of Atlanta as Mayor they are confederates?
You really going to vote for her instead of a successful entrepreneur like Jackson?
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First exits by IncaPolls will be at 12 PM.
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https://www.dailymail.com/sport/othersports/article-16260933/New-York-City-Marathon-runner-dies.html?banner=worldcup
This is why I don’t run. That and the fact I am lazy.
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Polymarket Dem sweep prediction up to 77%.
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So far the election day vote in Florida is nearly 2 to 1 R over D
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Half of the country is coming out to vote to save the country from the other half. And the other half is coming out to save the country from that half.
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in the military I could run 10 miles.
I can still walk a couple miles.
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Paul is right.
The Dems are coming out to save the country from capitalism.
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I think the Rs erred by not having a national campaign ad against socialism.
But considering the educational system has been turning out socialists for the last 40 years, maybe that would not be a good idea.
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No time to talk about socialism when you have a reflecting pool and giant arch to talk about.
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New Thread
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