The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +1218217

2026 Senate Forecast

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Gap+3.6+2.0+1.5+1.0+1.0+0.4+1.8+5.0+6.0+6.5
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Hochul up 16

DW

NEW YORK GOVERNOR

🟦 Kathy Hochul (inc): 50%
🟥 Bruce Blakeman: 34%

Concord Public Opinion, for Education Reform Now (Dem)| 8/19-21 | LV

IOWA SENATE


🟥 Ashley Hinson: 50%
🟦 Josh Turek: 45%

IOWA GOVERNOR
🟦 Rob Sand: 49%
🟥 Zach Lahn: 46%

Emerson 8/31-9/1 | 750 LV

FL-16

🟦 Kelly Kirschner: 40%
🟥 Sydney Gruters: 39%
⬜️ Not sure: 21%

Sea Polling – D Internal | 8/24-30 | R47-D34 | LV

FL-09

🟦 Darren Soto (inc): 41%
🟥 Dan Green: 41%
⬜️ Not sure: 18%

Sea Polling – D Internal | 8/24-30 | LV

[11:30 a.m. update: two more polls added:]

NM-02 POLL

🟦 Gabe Vasquez (inc): 46%
🟥 Greg Cunningham: 43%

KOB4/SurveyUSA | 8/28-9/2 | 554 LV

Two years ago SUSA polled NM-2 and found Vasquez ahead 51 to 42 for the Republican. The final results were 52 to 48, meaning they were off by 5 in favor of Vasquez.

CA-48 POLL

🟦 Marnie Von Wilpert: 45%
🟥 Jim Desmond: 42%
⬜️ Not sure: 13%

🔵 Definitely voting: Von Wilpert +5
🔴 Probably voting: Desmond +12
🔴 Indie: Desmond +29

KGTV/SurveyUSA | 8/27-9/1 | 522 LV

46 responses to “Hochul up 16”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First

    Like

  2. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    DeItaone

    US JOBS SMASH EXPECTATIONS August nonfarm payrolls surged +162K, crushing the +53K consensus. Unemployment held at 4.1%, in line with expectations. Private payrolls rose +127K, while government added +35K. Hourly earnings increased +0.27% MoM / +3.09% YoY. Labor-force participation: 61.6%. Previous payrolls revised to +21K in July and +31K in June.

    ·

    36.9K Views

    Like

  3. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    How is Cruz being quiet here about his 2028 run?

    https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/2095333848405987681

    Like

  4. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  5. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I think the Russians manipulated the jobs data with trump

    -freepaser

    Like

  6. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  7. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Tina has completely lost it.

    Like

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    RMG Research has Trump approval at 46/52

    Liked by 1 person

  9. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    ssq texted me.

    She wants to know about all the commercial ships in the Persian Gulf. She wants to know why there are so many commercial ships.

    Are they full of TV commercials or radio commercials? Are they old commercials like Burma Shave, and Brylcreme, or new commercials? Who is buying all these commercials? Each commercials ship holds millions…

    Like

  10. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    A woman went to the adult store to buy a new battery for her vibrator and put it on her charge card.

    When she got her charge card statement, she was surprised to see she was charged with “sexual battery.”

    Like

  11. DW Avatar
    DW

    I just updated the thread to include two more US HOUSE polls, both from SUSA. These two are among many where if it was true we were headed for a national blue-wave, these two seats would not even be close. But they are.

    NM-2 is rated by all the toupees as either lean or likely D. CA-48 is lean D by most of them.

    Like

  12. DW Avatar
    DW

    official: Mistrial in the Clancy case

    Like

  13. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    in the forest where all the trees were alphabetized, nobody could get onto it.

    Seems there was no “N” tree.

    Like

  14. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    “JG, seriously, are you or you not a parent?” Yes, GF, I am.

    Regarding the Lindsay Clancy case…

    Yes, she is a murderer. She viciously and savagely killed her three children. She even admits that herself.

    This is also the clearest case of insanity I’ve seen in American law in a long time.

    You see, GF, I have three daughters. My wife, after the third birth, severly suffered from postpartum pyschosis. She heard not one voice in her head, but eleven voices. I still remember her slamming her fists against her head to stop the voices, then trying to cut off her hair…anything to stop the voices.

    At all costs, I had to seperate their mother from her children. At all costs.

    I admitted her to the Harborview (Seattle) Mental Health Hospital. Still remember them locking the doors. When released a couple of weeks later she appeared comatose from over medication.

    Then the voices came back and the crying started. The constant crying. She had thoughts-terrible thoughts.

    I couldn’t make sense of her thoughts. Sounded like madness. The only thought I had was to take the girls to a safe place and away from their mother.

    Again, I took her to St. Francis mental health facility. This was all the while of taking care of my three young children at home. And thankful for the Family Leave Act.

    This went on for about five years. Admitting her to hospital stays. Signing papers. Taking care of my children. I reached out my church and especially the CPS (child protective services) and they helped.

    Postpartum pyschoisis is real. Mental illness is real. And so is insanity.

    If you are going to charge Lindsay Clancy with first degree murder, then might as well indict her then husband and mother of crimminal liability for not taking the children away from their mother.

    Like

  15. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Breaking News – 3 children killed by Clancy still dead.

    I recommend starting the new trial on Tuesday and sequester the jury.

    Like

  16. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    A panel decided to induct the late Dolly Parton into the Best Amricans Hall of Fame.

    The vote was not unanimous though. It was “9 to 5.”

    ********

    The jury of 12 Jamaicans was unable to come to a verdict when they tried the Jamaican rapper. They were DREADlocked.

    Like

  17. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    John Goggin, how is your wife’s mental health today?

    Like

  18. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    On a serious note, the one data center to be built here in my county will provide a combined ANNUAL payment to the County government and the county school system of $65 MILLION. @$20 million per year to county government and @$45 million to county schools.

    CURRENTLY, the total COUTY GOVERNMENT budget is $55 million.

    The total county SCHOOL budget is @ $350 million.

    I cannot for the life of me figure out how a data center gets the income to pay $65 MILLION. EVERY. YEAR. in just LOCAL taxes.
    Plus state taxes….federal taxes…

    A data center does not manufacture anything.
    WHAT IS their source of revenue that would provide such income to pay all these ANNUAL taxes and still make a profit?

    Like

  19. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  20. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Jan, still diagnosed with Bi-polar but on Latuda along with other meds. The voices have ceased years ago and so have the thoughts.

    The occasional crying is still there.

    Like

  21. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    JG – I was not aware of the extent of your wife’s issue. It is good that she is making progress but it must be difficult.

    Liked by 1 person

  22. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    If you are going to charge Lindsay Clancy with first degree murder, then might as well indict her then husband and mother of crimminal liability for not taking the children away from their mother”

    Ah yes, indict the husband, the mother, the shrinks, the society, the free passers, the mailman.

    ANYTHING to divert responsibility for these planned and horrendous killings from the real killer (now the victim) of the real victims.

    Like

  23. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    This is also the clearest case of insanity I’ve seen in American law in a long time”

    LOL

    This is the clearest case of bastardizing the insanity defense I’ve seen in American law in a long time.

    Fixed it for John Goggin.

    Like

  24. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Postpartum pyschoisis is real. Mental illness is real. And so is insanity”

    They are all real.

    However, they are not all an automatic get of jail card and the are not all a license for premeditated murder of your children.

    This woman was not insane by ANY measure. In fact she was seen by a whole host of practitioners none of which diagnosed insanity. Her husband, her co-workers, her family, her friends? Nobody deemed her insane. Experts who reviewed her case, one who interviewed her for 11 hours, clearly stated she knew right from wrong and was criminally responsible.

    Crazy? Like a fox.

    Like

  25. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Breaking News – 3 children killed by Clancy still dead.”

    The pink brigade could care less.

    This is not about the children.

    It is about making Clancy the victim.

    Like

  26. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Maybe the case can now be prosecuted with a less woke judge and a less woke jury.

    Not optimistic.

    Like

  27. DW Avatar
    DW

    Here is an update on US House polls of individual races where the pollster is NOT a D or R pollster, no internal polls, etc. What is listed below are districts where independent polls have been released, and whether or not each one indicates a forthcoming blue wave or if its essentially par.

    Shows a Blue-Wave forming:

    AR-2*, FL-14**, ID-1

    Shows a competitive “Par” election:

    AK-1, AZ-2, CA-48, MD-1, ME-2, NC-1, NH-2, NJ-7, NM-2, NY-17, NY-21, OH-1, WA-3

    *Hendrix college, notorious for gaslighting the Dems’ chances.
    **St. Pete’s Polls, one of the least reliable in Florida.

    This illustrates how so far the VAST majority of polls released have been internal polls or partisan polls done by a PAC. Noticeably absent so far are polls of individual races by Siena. Normally they pump these out a lot, but its been crickets from them.

    Like

  28. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    John, was your wife diagnosed with bipolar earlier in life? You are to be commended for hanging in there, taking care of your kids while standing by your wife. That would be a difficult role to take on for most people.

    Liked by 1 person

  29. DW Avatar
    DW

    And just to be clear, a competitive “par” election doesn’t mean for sure that the GOP will hold the house. But the point is whichever party does control it would be narrow like it is now.

    Like

  30. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    WHAT IS their source of revenue”

    It is really like those self storage facilities where you rent out a locker or a space.

    Companies put their servers in the data center and pay a monthly fee. They also buy power and the data center gets a markup. Data centers also provide networking capability.

    It’s basically a leasing of space and service.

    Like

  31. DW Avatar
    DW

    I really have little interest in the Clancy case. There have always been legal cases where everyone is a loser and there are no winners, and there always will be.

    Like

  32. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    as well indict her then husband and mother of crimminal liability for not taking the children away from their mother”

    Zzzzz………………

    Based on what exactly?

    The defense says she was a great mother, a great wife, a great worker, just a wonderful person all around.

    If that is all true (why would the defense lie) why would you take her children away.

    “During the trial of Lindsay Clancy—the Massachusetts mother accused of killing her three children—several mental health providers and medical professionals testified that she displayed clear, linear thinking and never indicated she had a plan or desire to harm her children.

    No Homicidal Warnings: Mental health clinicians, including her psychiatrist and a therapist friend who saw her weekly, testified that during sessions leading up to the tragedy, Clancy did not report any homicidal ideation or express that she posed a threat to her family”

    I think based on that it would be an uphill struggle to accuse her husband and mother of “criminal liability”.

    Like

  33. GF Avatar
    GF

    For the record, I am sympathetic to mental health problems; I was born into a family with such issues, was married to it far too long, and contend with it myself (part of my VA disability). That said, I am in lockstep with Jason; mental health does not preclude ultimate responsibility for one’s actions. Even if she is insane (I don’t think she is, the premeditated aspect throws that out, she just has/had some sort of depression and rolled with it. YOLO, I guess!), the woman needs to be put away for a long time as she has demonstrated that she cannot control her urges at a minimum. At least another jury can weigh all these factors and hopefully not be tainted by whacko women trying to make “murder by feels” a thing. I am not terribly optimistic, but at least society has a chance to get it right.

    Like

  34. DW Avatar
    DW

    Then there are behavioral clues. I have long said that if you want a peek inside the Real internal polling, watch how candidates behave. If the Dems were confident of a huge blue wave, you probably wouldn’t see this headline:

    “Democrat Candidates in Close Midterm Races Tell Kamala Harris to Stay Away”

    Same with all the stories where Dems are desperate to distance themselves from the DSA loonies.

    Like

  35. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    There have always been legal cases where everyone is a loser and there are no winners, and there always will be”

    I think you are wrong about there being no winners.

    If this woman is given a free pass for premeditated and intentional murder of her children, it will be a solid political win for those who are bent on making society, not individuals, responsible for criminality.

    This is a real movement. Defund the police, no bail laws, Marxist DA’s, judicial “reform”, changing felonies to misdemeanors (except for Trump), end of incarceration, end of death penalty, end of mandatory sentencing, etc. are all part of the left wing’s attempt to move away from the concept of personal responsibility and punishment commensurate with the crime to the concept of “society is to blame for all ills and punishment should account for that”.

    This woman killed her children because society did not protect them. Mangione killed the health executive because he was a victim of the healthcare system. Charlie Kirk’s killer should get off because he was the “victim” of supposed hate speech.

    The perps have become victims. The real victims are forgotten and irrelevant.

    I think there is a definite winner in this scenario.

    Like

  36. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Jan, no she wasn’t. The birth of our third child triggered postpartum depression, then postpartum pyschoisis then bi-polar.

    However, two of my daughters have been diagnosed with Bi-polar 2 and are on disablility, for which their mother can’t forgive herself for that.

    Both are at home.

    Like

  37. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Is EVERYTHING Jason disagrees with woke or just most things?

    Like

  38. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    That said, I am in lockstep with Jason; mental health does not preclude ultimate responsibility for one’s actions.”

    That is the key.

    Approximately 20% to 23% of adults in the United States experience a mental health issue in any given year.

    “About 54.6 million adults had a mental illness in 2025. That’s the equivalent of 20.6% of the adult population of the US, or 1 in 5 adults.”

    If mental health issues are a license to kill your children, family or anyone else as a matter of fact, we are going to have a real bloodbath on our hands.

    Like

  39. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Is EVERYTHING Jason disagrees with woke or just most things?”

    I will be happy to rule on wokeness for any issue you want to give as examples.

    In this particular case I stated:

    Defund the police, no bail laws, Marxist DA’s, judicial “reform”, changing felonies to misdemeanors (except for Trump), end of incarceration, end of death penalty, end of mandatory sentencing, etc. are all part of the left wing’s attempt to move away from the concept of personal responsibility and punishment commensurate with the crime to the concept of “society is to blame for all ills and punishment should account for that”.

    I think this is an example of wokeness. Feel free to disagree.

    Like

  40. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    The DA in this case is not a Marxist. They charged 1st degree murder and had nothing to say regarding government ownership of the economy.

    Like

  41. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I will be happy to rule on wokeness for any issue you want to give as examples.

    Supermarket scanners?

    The Designated Hitter in MLB?

    No shirt. No service.

    Like

  42. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Not woke, introduced in 1974

    Not woke, introduced in 1973

    Not woke, but was ok during Cleopatra’s reign.

    Wokeness is a relatively new phenomenon.

    2014: The phrase re-emerged prominently and entered broader digital lexicons via the Black Lives Matter movement during the protests in Ferguson, Missouri, following the police killing of Michael Brown. As users on Reddit discuss, it transitioned from localized AAVE into a general internet hashtag and symbol for social justice awareness.
    Late 2010s–2020: The meaning broadened to encompass awareness of other social inequalities, such as gender, sexism, and LGBTQ+ rights.
    2020–Present: Following the widespread racial justice protests of 2020, political conservatives increasingly adopted “woke” as a pejorative term to criticize progressive policies, identity politics, and corporate activism.”

    Like

  43. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The DA in this case is not a Marxist.”

    I don’t know if this DA is a Marxist or not. If you read what I said, I said the advent of Marxist DA’s is part of the movement I described.

    However, there are plenty of Marxist DAs who don’t bring up ownership of the economy in their cases. Not doing so doesn’t mean they aren’t Marxist.

    Like

  44. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Lindsay Clancy is reportedly “very sad” and “scared” as a Massachusetts jury deliberates whether she should be convicted of murdering her three young children or found not criminally responsible because of her mental health.”

    I wonder if she is as scared as her little kids were while she unmercifully strangled them to death.

    Like

  45. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    First, Hocjul will not win by 16.

    Maye 8 to 11.

    ******

    Second, DATA CENTERS

    it boggles my mind as to how muchwver multiplying info needs to stored by businesses, credit card companies, schools, local / state / federal government, agencies of all kinds for deeds, wills, tax records, Court cases, national security threats, investigations,

    ALSO, I read that in THIS County and practically every county around me for 100 MILES are taking up applications to build data centers in their counties.

    Of course there is massive opposition everywhere as nobody wants a Dara center in THEIR county. Each data center being proposed is many BILLIONS of dollars in investment.

    I can never remember seeing a line item in any government’s budget for storage of information. County government, city government, county school systems, various other governmental units, state government, for military records. Medicare or Medicaid records, prison systems, school systems, retirement systems, court systems, tax systems, etc., etc., etc.

    Like

  46. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I think most of the opposition to data centers is emotional and manipulated and lacks any real substance. Rural roads in PA are now dotted with signs “NO DATA CENTER”, most of these people have no idea what they are opposing or why.

    In my view the benefits vastly outweigh any downside. It brings revenue and jobs. The “environmental” issues are BS. The higher cost of energy is certainly an issue, but most of the data center builders address that.

    Meanwhile, China is smiling.

    Like

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