New Book:

2026 House Forecast

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Republican +3219216

2026 Senate Forecast

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Sullivan in trouble in Alaska

According to Change Research-D poll:

US Senate Alaska 2026
🟦Mary Peltola 47%
🟥Dan S. Sullivan 41% (incumbent)
⬜️Dan J. Sullivan 4%
🟥Gerald Heikes 3%
——
(Final RCV round)
🟦Mary Peltola 53%
🟥Dan S. Sullivan 47% (incumbent)

Data For Progress poll | 7/28-8/4 LV

US House 2026 | Alaska at-large

🟥Nick Begich 47% (incumbent)
⬜️Bill Hill 37%
I would rank neither 12%
Not sure 4%

Hart Research poll | 8/6-8/9 LV

US House 2026 | Ohio’s 15th congressional district

🟥Mike Carey 41% (incumbent)
🟦Don Leonard 37%
🟨Brennan Barrington 10%

(Don Leonard internal)

89 responses to “Sullivan in trouble in Alaska”

  1. First

    Like

  2. When I was in Alaska, there were a lot of ads hammering Sullivan for supporting international companies fishing and crabbing. Very local issue but will resonate there.

    Like

  3. More than a dozen Penn State University students are accused of packaging and selling cocaine as part of a multistate drug operation.

    Pennsylvania Attorney General Dave Sunday made the announcement during a news conference on Monday at State College.”

    Were they business school students?

    Like

  4. Peltola is a flaming liberal whose party “green” platform would decimate the oil and fishing and timber industry in Alaska.

    That should resonate more.

    Like

  5. MSM calls Trump a hypocrite for voting by mail in FL.

    Of course, he is the primary example of what voting by mail SHOULD be, for people actually absentee.

    Another MSM headline “Trump’s ties to Harp under scrutiny”.

    I guess the implication is that Trump is banging his 35 year old aide?

    I thought the MSM was saying he is physically and mentally unfit.

    Like

  6. @DeItaone

    ·

    1h

    *US JULY IMPORT PRICES FALL 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.1% *US JULY EXPORT PRICES FALL 1.3% M/M; EST. +0.2%

    Like

  7. That should resonate more.

    I agree. I was only there for a few days. Hopefully, Sullivan is listening to Jason and started running ads.

    Like

  8. Economic news has been really good. Too bad the Iranian thing has caused gas prices to jump….such a drag on the GOP in the midterms.

    Like

  9. “More than a dozen Penn State University students are accused of packaging and selling cocaine….”

    From Penn State to state pen?

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Here is an article about the D candidate big shakeup in stagf just before the Alaska primary.

    Like

  11. It comes to this:

    Socialist New York Lawmaker Says Shoplifting Is a “Biological Need”

    What would this clown say about the biological need of rapists?

    Liked by 1 person

  12. GEORGIA POLL SENATE

    🟦 Jon Ossoff (inc): 50%
    🟥 Mike Collins: 43%

    ——

    GOVERNOR

    🟦 Keisha Lance Bottoms: 46%
    🟥 Rick Jackson: 46%

    Insider Advantage | 8/16-17 | 800 LV

    Like

  13. DW,

    Yep.

    Several days ago I opined during a rare moment of posting serious and thoughtful things about how the crazies want everything that is wrong with them and their fellow crazies to be caused by “that is the way I was born.”

    IN OTHER WORDS you canmot punish me or hold me accountable for my wrongful actions.

    ■■■■■

    This is their equivalent of Monopoly game “Get Out Of Jail Free” card.

    ●●●●●●●

    They will carry this “GOOJF”card in their wallet next to their “”Racism” and “Sexism” cards.

    Like

  14. Like

  15. lol, as if he has “discovered” something here. Error exists in polling, but not error that always goes in one direction.

    @PatrickRuffini

    NEW: Deep dive investigation into 3,000+ Senate polls over the last 4 cycles. They’ve overestimated Democrats in all 4 cycles, 73% of polls overstate the Democrat, and it’s worse right now, in the summer.

    Liked by 1 person

  16. Expedition Strategies poll

    7/9-8/1 LV US House 2026

    Virginia’s 5th congressional district

    🟥John McGuire 47% (incumbent)
    🟦Tom Perriello 44%

    (Tom Perriello internal)

    Like

  17. That VA poll is actually pretty good news. Perriello is a former representative, meaning its not like the Republican is running against a newbie. Its not only a Dem internal, its one where they polled for over three weeks, and even so the final date is stale. What this tells me is that they have been polling all along and keep hoping it will get better, but it didn’t, so they finally release the best three-week span they got.

    Like

  18. It appears that the Dan J Sullivan is having an impact on the “real” Dan S Sullivan in taking away 4% of the vote.

    Like

  19. I never imagined such a choice might be having the Communism one competitive with the Common Sense one!

    Like

  20. Green Power Motor company is based in Canada.

    the U.S. federal government established a $5 BILLION pool of money to subsidize and assist in manufacture of green energy, zero emissions under the EPA and Federal Jobs Act.

    GPM built a manufacturing plant in Riverside CA. They also built a pla t in WV near Charleston.

    in WV, the state gave $15,5 MM and ordered 41 buses. Later, WV gave 18.5 MM for 50 more buses.

    I think GPM also got a $18.5 MM grant from the Federal EPA.

    ●●●●

    SO WV had about 100 electric busses across 7 of theb55 counties.

    Ther have been issues with brakes overheating, emergency doors mfunctioning, failure of buses to start in cold weather, and max milage before need of recblharge being about 200 miles.

    TODAY, ALL 91 ELECTRIC BUSES ARE NOT–repeat…NOT–IN OPERATION and are parked while figuring out what to do to solve these issues.

    ●●●●●

    Schools across WV started last week.

    *********

    instead 12 months, stock price for GPS Motors has fallen dramatically (55.56$)

    Like

  21. in March, 2017, Porterville CA ordered 10 buses and charging infrastructure for same at a cost of $10 MM.

    the purchase price per bus is @ $400,000.

    The range before recharge is about 150 or so miles.

    ********

    Does this make sense?

    Like

  22. Electric vehicles don’t work on the east coast because of problems with cold weather. However, here on the west coast – especially in the Los Angeles area – Tesla has multiplied like bunny rabbits. They are everywhere!

    Liked by 1 person

  23. In August 2020, Nasdaq shares for GP started at $8 per share, rose to $34, abd declined to $18 by April 2021.

    Now shares are much lower.

    Somebody made a killing.

    Maybe the DNC…

    Like

  24. Janz,

    You are correct.

    : lots of issues in winter in cold mountains of WV.

    Like

  25. Economic news has been really good. Too bad the Iranian thing has caused gas prices to jump….such a drag on the GOP in the midterms.

    Phil – I agree. However, despite what Tina hopes, most voters don’t research economic stats. They do fill up their gas tanks. Gas was expensive under Biden and it did not help Harris.

    Like

  26. More flash flooding in various parts of WV in the last several days.

    Not sure if they were caused by governor Morissey or president Trump

    Like

  27. @EricLDaugh

    🚨 IT’S OFFICIAL: Over 1 MILLION migrants stand to be deported after the Supreme Court ruling forces activist judges to concede defeat, and allow TPS to be terminated — Pew

    Somalia and Ethiopia TPS blocks have been LIFTED, and DHS is full steam ahead to deport 🔥 I voted for this! GOOD RIDDANCE.

    Like

  28. Iran is winning. They control the hormuzzle

    -freepasser

    Like

  29. Lol it’s now muh gas prices. Which rise in summer

    Like

  30. Iran is winning. They control the hormuzzle

    -freepasser

    Ssshhhhh. Tina is talking to herself again.

    Like

  31. The wokesters now want to cancel Neutragena because they dropped Hayden Panattiere.

    Supposedly that make her commit suicide (if that is what it turns out to be).

    Eventually no company can fire or drop anyone lest they kill themselves.

    It’s where we are in America.

    Yesterday in the trial of the woman who strangled her little kids her mother and sister supported her insanity plea.

    Bitter said he wouldn’t support his son if he was a drunk driver. So I will let it be known now that if any of my kids kill my grandchildren I won’t be supporting them either.

    Like

  32. Iran is winning. They control the hormuzzle”

    I wonder who is to blame that Tina sees imaginary freepassers everywhere.

    She cannot be responsible for this.

    Maybe the company that makes Limoncello?

    Like

  33. Lol it’s now muh gas prices. Which rise in summer”

    Wait.

    So Tina, do you actually deny that high gas prices could hurt R candidates in the midterms?

    A friend wants to know.

    Like

  34. According to government stats, gas prices usually rise about 40 cents a gallon in the summer peak from the February lows.

    Pre-war average: ~$2.98 per gallon (late February 2026)

    Current national average: ~$4.00 per gallon

    So the rise has been about 2.5 times the usual increase.

    So as they say in Texas, that dog won’t hunt.

    Like

  35. I support Trump and the Iran war, if you want to call it that. 100%.

    But higher prices for gas and other things, or even just the perception of the rise, hurts R candidates and gives the Dem a platform to run on.

    Both can be true.

    Like

  36. Over 1 MILLION migrants stand to be deported”

    Zzzzz…

    Stand to be deported and being deported are two different things.

    There are over 20 million illegals in the US.

    “The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reports that the administration has formally deported roughly 675,000 to 900,000 individuals since Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025.”

    Additionally, the administration claims another 2.2 million left voluntarily, but that is probably exaggerated, it is very difficult to track voluntary exits.

    And remember, they got a lot of low hanging fruit initially. It will be harder from here on in.

    As I said when all this started, if Trump actually deports 10% of illegals it will be a real accomplishment.

    Like

  37. Will Jason support his children if they drive drunk and injure or kill somebody?

    Asking for myself.

    Like

  38. Tina,

    I am worried that is all the smaet Somali fraudsters get deported back to Somalia, that country will become a powerhouse on the edge of the Middle East.

    Ilyan Omar will probably be their president.

    Like


  39. Reese Gorman

    @reesejgorman

    ·

    Follow

    News: James Talarico poached Sen. John Corny’s deputy legislative director, Jacob Smith. Smith is now working for Talarico’s campaign after years working in DC for Republicans. W/ @alweaver22 @igorbobic

    Like

  40. I do not care if the illegals stand to get deported or stay seated when deported.

    Like

  41. With so much experienced repatriated illegal aliens, Somalia will become the child “learing” center, day care center, hospice care center, health care fraud center of the African horn.

    Like

  42. …a mecca of child “learing” centers…

    Like

  43. Got a dentist appointment to get ready to go to. They want me there by 2 p.m.

    To protest agaist the white dominated culture that encourages everyone being on time and punctual, I should show up 15 minutes late and then play the White Dominance Race Card.

    Like

  44. “I’ve worked for Republicans like Senator Cornyn my entire career, but this year I’m proud to be joining James Talarico’s campaign. Instead of playing partisan politics, Talarico speaks to the needs of everyday people who day in and day out work too hard for too little.

    In the Senate, James will fight to lower costs for all 31 million Texans, whether they’re Republicans, Democrats, or independents, so that Texans of all ages have a fighting chance at the American Dream of starting a family, owning a home, and leaving a little behind for their children.”

    The above is Jacob Smith’s pitch for his new boss. One wonders how a conservative can be a staffer for “conservative” John Coryn for 5 years, and then suddenly gush over someone like Talarico!

    Like

  45. “The one who climbs the highest tree sees the farthest, but also falls the hardest.”

    Like

  46. “The one who throws the stone soon forgets. The one who is hit remembers forever.”

    Like

  47. A group of rhinos is called a “crash”.

    Like

  48. One wonders how a conservative can be a staffer for “conservative” John Coryn for 5 years, and then suddenly gush over someone like Talarico!

    How big is his mortgage and did he have any other job offers?

    Liked by 1 person

  49. The guy wants Texans to have a fighting chance that their children will get tricked into having their genitals mutilated, and then the parents thrown into prison for trying to stop it.

    Yeah, there’s a strong conservative for you.

    Liked by 1 person

  50. The only thing Talarico will allow parents to leave behind for their children are the body parts they had to chop off for their forced trans surgeries.

    Like

  51. Remember that Bullfinch Group was one of the worst in 2024 for left skew. Their new generic ballot:

    Bullfinch Group poll

    8/14-8/17 (Registered voters)

    Generic congressional ballot 2026

    🟦Democratic 42%
    🟥Republican 37%

    Like

  52. Echelon Insights poll

    Mid-August LV Generic congressional ballot 2026

    🟦Democratic 50% (no change)
    🟥Republican 45% (+1)

    Like

  53. WaPo: Chuck Schumer says Democrats don’t necessarily need to win Michigan to flip control of the US Senate. “A path to winning back the Senate clearly goes through Michigan, but we have a whole bunch of different paths,” Schumer said

    Translation: We went one for two in getting rid of the two radical crazies running in WI and MI.

    Like

  54. It must be the return of muh prices, the free passers ignored demented rising prices and wanted prices down months after trump took office.

    Like

  55. Will Jason support his children if they drive drunk and injure or kill somebody?”

    Yes. I would do what I could to help them. I am sure they would do the same for me.

    Does not mean I approve of their actions or condone drunk driving.

    But yes, I would have my limit. If for example, they had several prior DUIs I would be less supportive.

    Fortunately, either I was lucky or I raised my kids well or a combination thereof. About 15 years combined college and grad school and I never got that midnight call for accidents, alcohol or drug abuse, fights, vandalism, etc.

    At this point, the likelihood of any of them driving drunk is very low.

    Like

  56. John Cronyn is now against the save America act. Notice for election purposes, he was for it. Now he is against it since he lost his race.

    Tired of these rhinos in office. It’s his own fault.

    Like

  57. he free passers ignored demented rising prices”

    The imaginary freepassers ignored Biden’s highest inflation rates in 40 years?

    Shame of those imaginary freepassers!

    Like

  58. Electing more liberal Democrats is going to help pass the Save America Act.

    • Tina

    Like

  59. @shipwreckedcrew

    ·

    Two cents on the Ballroom. Under the WH there are fortified facilities designed to protect the President from attack and facilitate continuity of Govt in case of such an attack. The construction of a very large Ballroom directly adjacent to the WH allows the construction of any entirely new — completely modern — and much larger facility with the same function. THAT is the most important aspect of the project, and the reason why interrupting construction or allowing excessive public commentary about the nature of the work being done is a national security issue. The US has used its most advance munitions to take out hostile foreign leaders who believed they were hiding in a safe space. Why would we blithely assume as a country that facilities designed some number of years/decades ago would protect POTUS and his essential staff from an attack by a hostile foreign power using its most advanced weaponry? Anyone — including judges — who thinks this is about “offended sensibilities” and impairing the aesthetics of the WH grounds is an idiot.

    Like

  60. Has Souter 2.0 exited the cocktail circuit and placed a stay on the ruling. It’s stupid for 100 reasons. The lady dog walker has no standing.

    Like

  61. Like

  62. News says the trans woman who was convicted of plotting to assassinate Trump cabinet member Treas. Sec. gets 6 years prison sentence.

    Not sure she will be places in a woman’s prison or a man’s prison.

    Like

  63. A guy amassed $90K in credit card debt on 12 trips to the N and S poles.

    He says he should not have to pay since he suffers from……..

    BI POLAR DISORDER.

    Like

  64. Yes. I would do what I could to help them. I am sure they would do the same for me.

    I would not help them for committing a crime that literally has no excuse to ever be committed.

    Like

  65. Like

  66. Free passer logic here:

    Attempt to assassinate Bessent – 7 years

    J6 er waved into the muh Capitol event – 25 years

    Liked by 1 person

  67. From RRH Elections:

    A new controversy is unfolding around Michigan far-left Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. He got a sweetheart consulting deal with his former state health employer just days after quitting with no record of approval by the county commission, and he’s accused of funneling his income through his LLC to avoid paying payroll taxes as he campaigns on “pay your fair share.”
     
    Eight days after Abdul El-Sayed resigned from his nearly $279,000-a-year job as Wayne County’s health director in 2025, he started his own consulting company and rapidly landed a $72,000 county contract to advise the department he had just been running.
     
    The unusual part is the eight-day gap between his resignation and his company’s contract. And El-Sayed was simultaneously campaigning for the U.S. Senate. The timing is striking, and raises questions about conflicts of interest, insider sweetheart deals, and taxpayer-funded consulting.
     
    The consulting work potentially enhanced his political profile for his Senate race. El-Sayed billed the county for work, for example, related to RxKids in November, while County Executive Warren Evans publicly praised El-Sayed’s role in getting the program going. 
     
    The county contract went to his AME Higher LLC consulting firm for “leadership transition assistance,” and “media and communications support,” among other things. His 2025 Senate financial disclosure reported roughly $167,000 in income from the LLC.

    The structure allows him to avoid payroll/self-employment taxes for Medicare and Social Security on this income. Because AME Higher is a pass-through business, its profits flow to El-Sayed rather than being taxed as corporate income. H/t to the Free Beacon for reporting on this.
     
    He reported only $130,749 in wages on his 2025 personal return, while more than $262,000 was reported as capital gains from a property sale and other income. “AME” appears to be based on Abdul Mohamed El-Sayed’s initials.
     
    There is also a procurement question. A review cited by Wayne County Watch reportedly found no evidence that the Wayne County Commission had approved his $72,000 contract with the county health department, although a purchase order existed and invoices were charged to the health department. 
     
    The central fact remains difficult to ignore: a former county health director left office and, just eight days later, his former department hires his own company to help guide the department he had been running—while he was campaigning for the U.S. Senate. And then he avoids payroll taxes on his income via an LLC while telling you to pay your fair share.

    That is more than a routine consulting arrangement. It is a taxpayer-funded deal and a tax avoidance setup that deserves scrutiny.
    https://x.com/LizMacDonaldFOX/status/2089770163025613058

    Like

  68. And El-Sayed preached about the rich paying their fair share.

    Like

  69. AP: Despite economy concerns, this voter sticks with Republicans

    Julio Miranda, 70, a Miami retiree and native of Cuba, has been voting Republican since becoming a U.S. citizen more than 25 years ago. He said the economy is a major factor in this election. He was trying to decide whether to vote for Paul Renner or Byron Donalds, who was endorsed by President Trump. Either way, he is sticking with Republicans. “I came from one country that is socialists. Democrats are similar to socialists,” Miranda said.

    I guess in the perception of most people, economy = gas prices

    Like

  70. Abdulrahman made a big deal over a little aid to Israel costing lives here in the US because that money could have been spent on healthcare for all (I think Jason detailed that). Yet, the Mufti’s own wife doesn’t take patients with insurance in her practice, meaning thagt only rich patients with cash get care. Rogers should also run on that if he is not already.

    Like

  71. Yes, according to the ap…. They fail to mention, price cuts for medicines, real incime rising, manufacturing boooming, rents down in areas that had high illegals, etc.

    Like

  72. RIP Frank Beard (drummer for ZZ Top). Famous MTV videos include “Gimme All Your Lovin;” and of course, “Legs” with that famous red Ford Coupe. He also played a cameo role with the band in Back To The Future Part 3.

    Sadly, he was in hospice care was 77.

    Liked by 1 person

  73. Went to a new zoo.

    ONLY had ONE animal–a dog.

    It was a Shitzu.

    Like

  74. Another 4 bags of weedS pulled from the last 100 feet of fence row plus some side and front yard.

    Takes a little over 1 hour to fill one bag.

    Gives me time to think of jokes like the one about a new zoo.

    ●●●●●

    A damn bug flew in my ear while weeding and was buzzing and fooling around and it would not come out. Wife had to provide assistance.

    She was a little put out I was I terfering with her cookie baking.

    Like

  75. I was in Delta Sigma Pi business fraternity in college.

    I was glad to see the Penn State fraternity brothers involved in packaging g and selling co.caine were NOT Delta Sigs.

    Like

  76. My son’s dog. A Shitzu- Yorkie mix, said your joke sucked. Now you can face 10 pounds of fury if she meets you.

    Like

  77. Bitter,

    Any zoo that has only one animal is a sh!t zoo.

    Like

  78. Recalculated… takes about an hour and a half to fill a 35 pound bag with weedS.

    Like

  79. We are already planning a trip to Spain and Portugal for 2027.

    We do not even leave for our 2026 vacation tour to Maritime provinces of Canada until 2nd week in September.

    Like

  80. Skinwalker Ranch on at 9.

    Martinis ready.

    Life is good.

    GFYs.

    Like

  81. Those gold hoards Walt accumulated over the centuries are coming in handy for Walt’s hig luxury vacations.

    They certainly aren’t paid for on his public school teacher’s pension.

    I am thinking of renting a metal detector and scouting around Walt’s previous residences in the hopes that he might have forgotten to dig up one hoard or another.

    Liked by 1 person

  82. jason,

    Hate to ruin your theory about how my wife and I amassed a comfortable nest egg for our retirement years.

    Pretty much the result of a lifetime of sensible living and consistent lifetime of saving and investing of about 1/4 of our annual income. Plus we both had other jobs in the summer when we were teachers.

    Neither of us inherited any big money when our parents passed. Nor did I take any bribes as a legislator.

    For most of the first 5 years after we married we lived in a big 12 room farm house for $75/mo. rent. Low rent in exchange for doing work on interior of house. So we were able to sock away considerable money for a down payment on a home when we were ready to buy one.

    Our first house (bought for $48,500 (we put 20% down)–we sold it for $185,000 7 yrs ago) monthly mortgage payment was only $330 /mo. We paid mortgage off early.

    We were putting considerable money each month into our savings plus into both boys college funds since the time they were born. We would borrow from the boys college accounts when it was time for a new car and pay them back with 5% interest. Did not finance any car or get any bank loan. Borrowed from ourselves. We also were smart shoppers and grocery coupon clippers.

    I did most of the work to maintain house like exterior painting, and was able to do interior painting, renovation of laundry room, renovation of family room, make more space in closets, build new family room and kitchen [from pouring concrete, to framing up and putting up roof trusses, doing insulation, putting on siding, shingling the roof, installing windows and cabinets], and put in a big storage room beneath that, renovate old kitchen area to enlarge dining room and add a 3/4 bath, add a very large step down 2 level deck, do massive amounts of outside landscaping with stone walled edged flower beds and put in the big fish pond….

    We only had house payment on this current house for a few months until we sold the old house and paid it off. No house payment for last 6 1/2 yrs.

    We were not living stingy for the last 40 years. We were big contributors to our church we attended every Sunday Went out for dinner every Friday night, traveled, hired a person to clean our house for the last ten years in old home. We were able to live a good and comfortable life.

    We were blessed in many ways–including good health…

    Like

  83. FL Dem regular nut Wasserman Schultz beat the Dem moonbat nutt pretty handily.

    Like

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