The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +5220215

2026 Senate Forecast

MIMETXAKIAOHNHNCMNGA
Gap+4.5+3.5+2.0+2.0+1.0+1.0+3.3+5.5+7.0+8.5
Count48495051525347464544

GOP Now Favorite in Michigan Senate?

DW

MICHIGAN SENATE DEM PRIMARY

🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 46% (+5)
🟦 Haley Stevens: 36% (-2)
⬜️ Not sure: 14%
—
With leaners
🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 48%
🟦 Haley Stevens: 37%
——
Fav-unfav
El-Sayed: 64-24 (+40)
Stevens: 55-37 (+18)

Tavern Research | July 26-27 | LV

Meanwhile as reported yesterday:

MICHIGAN POLL – Senate

🟥 Mike Rogers: 49%
🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 39%

——

Glengariff Group | 7/22-24 | 600 LV

Two more House polls by Global Strategy Group-D for long shot candidates trying to show its close:

CO-05 POLL – Killin (Dem) internal

🟥 Jeff Crank: 45%
🟦 Jessica Killin: 44%
⬜️ Not sure: 11%
——

GSG | 7-16/21 | R33/D19/I48 | 450 LV

OH-10 POLL – Knickerbocker (Dem) internal

🟥 Mike Turner (inc): 45%
🟦 Kristina Knickerbocker: 40%
🟨 Thomas McMasters: 4%

——
GSG | 7/20-23 | R47/D39 | 700 LV

22 responses to “GOP Now Favorite in Michigan Senate?”

  1. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Fraudci appears to be in. Trouble. He is pleading the 5th. I don’t think he can do this because of the pardon. That is obstruction.

    Like

  2. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I read this a month or so ago from shipwreck an ex DOJ attorney.

    Like

  3. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2082472363384352833

    Sc case on this and Hawley mentioning it.

    Like

  4. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Soooo, overnight the Iranians launched missile attacks on US bases. All missiles were intercepted and US /Saudis hit Iranian backed militias in Iraq. Well, this is interesting. Sounds like the Saudis have had enough. This latest attack more proof that the Iranian bastards don’t “badly want a deal”. We all knew that. Does Trump? Finally? Has he seen enough yet? Says he will now pound the “fucking shit” out of them. Heard that before haven’t we. Will he this time? Obviously the Iranians don’t think so or it’s hard to see that they’d be directly attacking American bases. Talks? Maybe finally we won’t be buying the same rug the MFs keep selling us.

    Finish the MFs.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Of course the Iranians want a deal. I will repost the situation in Iran for Phil, who thinks “Iran is winning”.

    Iran wants the best deal possible for them. Their only leverage is the Strait of Hormuz and interruption oil traffic. So they are using that. No surprise there.

    Endless bombing without a strategy is not going to win any war. Air power alone does not win wars, Israel had complete air superiority over Gaza AND troops on the ground in an area hundreds of times smaller than Iran and it took them years to “win”.

    Barring troops on the ground, the only way to get a deal is to use the strategy Trump is (successfully I might add) using, which is to alternate force with diplomacy in the hope that continuing the conflict will become too expensive economically and militarily to pursue.

    Sorry Phil, there are no miracles, no magic wands in the offing. This is a complex problem going on for 50 years, so simplistic platitudes are not going to work here.

    “The government said last month that about 230 million cubic metres (300 million cubic yards) per day of Iran’s pre-war natural gas output of roughly 650 million cubic metres (850 million cubic yards) was lost due to US and Israeli bombing, worsening electricity and petrochemical shortages.

    Authorities are also managing a fuel imbalance as the country faces a deficit of more than 20 million litres (5.3 million gallons) per day of petrol. The shortage is managed through limited but costly imports, blending fuel components, tapping inventories stocked before the war and repeatedly asking citizens to consume less.

    The Petroleum Ministry said tighter monthly fuel consumption caps may be imposed if the imbalance persists.

    The government said this week that it is seriously considering doubling the price of a third tier of monthly petrol quotas allocated to individuals.

    Another petrol price hike was made in December, weeks before the country was swept by a wave of nationwide protests, in which thousands of people were killed in a government crackdown in January. An overnight fuel price increase in November 2019 also triggered deadly nationwide protests.

    The capital, Tehran, and cities across the country are facing rolling electricity cuts, which also create water and communications disruptions. President Masoud Pezeshkian said he has ordered industries not to be cut off until late September to avoid further inflaming a bruised jobs market.

    The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also hit Iran’s commerce with China, its largest trading partner and buyer of oil, which has considerably curtailed its overall crude oil imports to adapt to conditions created by the war.

    But nonoil trade with China has also deteriorated since the start of the war, falling by 75 percent in March and June when compared with a year before, according to Chinese customs data.

    Two near-total internet shutdowns imposed by the authorities, first during the January protests and then during the war, only worsened conditions for Iran’s economy this year as it battles chronic inflation and a rapid dwindling of public purchasing power.

    A report last year by the Saba Pension Strategies Institute, a think tank affiliated with Iran’s state-run pension fund, found that while a little more than 30 percent of Iranians lived below the poverty line five years ago, that rate was projected to have reached 45 percent this year – and was still rising.”

    Like

  6. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Polymarket now has El Sayed at 85% chance.

    It also has the Dems with 70% chance of winning the GE.

    Let’s see if that changes when/if Sayed wins the primary.

    Like

  7. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Finish the MFs.”

    Impossible without ground troops and/or an internal uprising.

    In WWII, the allies were bombing Germany with over 1,000 planes a day. Their cities were turned into rubble. Civilians died by hundreds of thousands.

    They only surrendered when troops actually occupied Berlin.

    Like

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    Wisconsin Democrats are certain the entire state wants to be like New York City:

    Wisconsin Governor

    Dem Primary

    🟦 Francesca Hong: 38% (+12)
    🟦 Mandela Barnes: 16% (+1)
    🟦 David Crowley: 7% (new)
    🟦 J. Brennan: 2%
    🟦 Kelda Roys: 2%
    ⬜️ Not sure: 34%

    (+/- change vs 7/18)

    @MULawPoll (A) | 7/22-27 | 407 LV

    Like

  9. DW Avatar
    DW

    Same goes for MI-7, where if they go with commie Will Lawrence, it will take this tossup seat off the table and return Republican incumbent Tom Barrett to congress:

    MI-07 DEM PRIMARY (from Maasdam supporting group)

    🟦 Will Lawrence: 38%
    🟦 Matt Maasdam: 27%
    🟦 Bridget Brink: 19%
    ——

    Fav-unfav
    • Sanders: 87-11 (+76)
    • Slotkin: 80-17 (+63)
    • El-Sayed: 67-25 (+42)
    • Stevens: 51-35 (+16)
    • Lawrence: 52-14 (+38)
    • Maasdam: 47-16 (+31)
    • Brink: 42-24 (+18)

    GSG | 7/23-26 | 500 LV

    Like

  10. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    So back to the ancients who built dwellings and graineries into the narrow ledges in the Grand Canyon and in other areas of the Sw in Utah, etc.

    I do not get it.

    Supposedly. VERY FEW PEOPLE lived there. It was very inhospitable region.

    The narrow ledges were easily defendable as only one attacker at a time could traverse the narrow ledges in many spots.

    PLUS, the videos I have been watching about the inside of the grannies show many LARGE sized corn cobs–not tiny ears. So that flies in the face of, “oh well there was climate change and that forced them to leave.” The springs STILL run there cliff faces, in narrow canyons and in the small ravines.

    if some group wanted to attack, destroy, drive out the ancient cliff dwellers, it would have been costly in casualties. Also, they had no apparent valuables like gold or silver trinkets. So why would some group go to extra lengths and endure the danger of trying to eradicate or force out the cliff dwellers?

    There is no apparent reason why any OTHER group would find this area so attractive to engage in and warrant a death struggle.

    The only answer I can come up with–since there is no logical, reasonable sensible answer as to why someone attacked them–is that that attackers MUST have been whackadoodle radical Iranian mooselimbs.

    They are the only ones today that have no logic and reason to explain their actions…

    Like

  11. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Fauci, in his own words in a diary written on a government site, has proven to be a cretin, a diabolical self serving monster with no conscience, who negatively changed lives, caused many deaths, and continues to be supported by cowardly democrats. Watching the congressional hearing this morning was a stomach-turner. I don’t see how Fauci can live with himself.

    Like

  12. DW Avatar
    DW

    More from Wisconsin…the commie Hong, poised to become the Dem governor candidate called for the abolition of the United States Senate (something she has tried to walk back, but the internet is forever).

    She tried running a restaurant, but failed miserably. Capital One sued her for $30,000 in unpaid bills so her parents jumped in to paid off the debt.

    Sounds like a great candidate to run the state!

    But people often don’t realize that in the Soviet/Communist mindset, this IS an ideal candidate, as the only qualification is 100% devotion to the communist leader. That’s all that matters.

    Like

  13. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    The price of oil keeps rocking around —- yesterday it was in the high 70’s and today now in the mid 80’s. Iran is continuing to intimidate its citizens by hanging people who intervened in January’s public protests. I just don’t see people rising up and disposing of the hierarchy ruling Iran when they continue to be so defenseless. I also don’t see bombing the h*ll out of Iran as being a swift solution either. IMO off ramps for Trump are few and far in between.

    Like

  14. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Has there been any polling done between the WI dem contenders for governor and Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate?

    Like

  15. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Fauci May still not be out of the woods in being held accountable.

    Eric Daugherty

    @EricLDaugh

    ·

    BREAKING: Florida Attorney General James Uthemier has just launched a STATE-LEVEL investigation into Anthony Fauci after his “lack of candor” before Congress The autopen pardon does NOT cover state-level crimes UTHMEIER: “My office is launching an investigation into Dr

    Like

  16. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Guess what recently selected Woman of Distinction and 30 plus year Hospice volunteer has been roped into redecorating the hospice intake facility and tasked with researching, shopping for furniture, pictures, fake flower arrangents and other decorative objects?

    Guess who she has now roped into going to help her do all these things?

    Sigh…

    My next wife will simply be a gal whose only interest is stamp collecting….

    Like

  17. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Walt has had 217 wives. The current wife is a taskmaster who has time to volunteer because of Walt’s labor.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. DW Avatar
    DW

    Here is perhaps a good way to look at expectations for the election this November. Below I take each poll as an individual data point that if true, suggests a larger scenario of either a Huge Blue Wave, a Small Blue Wave, or No Blue Wave (status quo). For the most part I didn’t include internal partisan polls. What is fascinating to me is how often the same pollster sees all the races the same way. This suggests they have their model of what they expect and they are sticking to it. Others like Emerson range all over. Many of the usual suspects floated to the top of the HUGE Blue Wave list, joined by Baris who hates Trump now and wants the GOP punished for getting rid of his buddy Massie and for going to war.

    But taken all together, you can see that if you drew a line in the middle of these data points it would be closer to No Blue Wave than HUGE blue wave. The fear of communists like Mamdani and AOC being nationalized is going to be leveraged to keep moderates and independents a bit more honest than if Dems ran more traditional democrats in all their races.

    For your convenience I supply the 2024 letter grades assigned to each.

    Huge Blue Wave (Large Dem House Majority, Narrow Dem Senate Majority):

    Emerson B- (Gen. Ballot)
    Daily Mail (Gen. Ballot)
    FOX News C- (Gen. Ballot)
    Financial Times (Gen. Ballot)
    Big Data Poll A- (Gen. Ballot)
    St. Pete Polls F (FL-14)
    St. Anselm B (NH-2)
    Fox News C- (GA-Sen, IA-Sen, OH-Sen)
    AARP C+ (OH-Sen)
    University of Texas D (TX-Sen)

    Small Blue Wave (Narrow Dem House Majority, Narrow GOP Senate Majority):

    Economist/YouGov (Gen. Ballot)
    CNBC (Gen. Ballot)
    Echelon Insights B
    (Gen. Ballot)
    Pew Research (Gen. Ballot)
    Quantus Insights B (Gen. Ballot)
    Cygnal C- (Gen. Ballot)
    Rasmussen B- (Gen. Ballot)
    Univ. of New Hampshire B+ (ME-02, NH-2)
    Co-Efficient A (NC-1)
    Echelon Insights B (GA-Sen)
    Siena C (IA-Sen, NC-Sen, OH-Sen, TX-Sen)
    Cygnal C- (IA-Sen)
    Carolina Journal (NC-Sen)
    Bowling Green U/YouGov C (OH-Sen)

    No Blue Wave (Narrow GOP House Majority, Same GOP Senate Majority):

    Morning Consult C+ (Gen. Ballot)
    Reuters/Ipsos (Gen. Ballot)
    RMG Research C+ (Gen. Ballot)
    Harvard-Harris (Gen. Ballot)
    Wash Post/Ipsos (Gen. Ballot)
    2Way/HarrisX (Gen. Ballot)
    Siena College C (AK-01 AK-Sen)
    Alaska Research Survey C (AK-01)
    Co-Efficient A (ME-2, NM-2, NY-17, TX-34, WA-3)
    Emerson B- (WA-3)
    Wick A (GA-Sen)
    Emerson B- (GA-Sen)
    Glengariff C (MI-Sen)
    Quantus Insights B (MI-Sen, TX-Sen)
    Mitchell Research C+ (MI-Sen)
    Detroit News (MI-Sen)
    Emerson B- (MN-Sen, NH-Sen)
    Peak Insights B- (NH-Sen)
    St. Anselm B (NH-Sen)
    University of NH B+ (NH-Sen)
    Echelon Insights B (OH-Sen)
    SoCal Strategies B (TX-Sen)

    Liked by 1 person

  19. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    DW, what an unusual way to analyze the upcoming midterms!

    Like

  20. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    A socialist method to sell groceries:

    ”The first city-run grocery, in East Harlem, will cost $30 million to build — and perhaps more. It will never need to pay this money back nor factor it into its prices. The “warmth of socialism” will cover it; that is, you.

    In reality, Mamdani will be selling apples at a far greater cost than any competitor, but those true costs will be buried in the city budget and paid for by the taxpayers.

    Indeed, the Mamdani markets are likely prove the most expensive groceries in the city.”

    https://nypost.com/2026/07/28/opinion/mamdanis-grocery-stores-will-be-the-most-expensive-markets-in-nyc-paid-for-by-you-the-taxpayer/

    Like

  21. DW Avatar
    DW

    I read a different article showing that all told it will be $55 million before it opens.

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  22. DW Avatar
    DW

    But when its taxpayer money, who’s really counting?

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