The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +5220215

2026 Senate Forecast

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Gap+4.5+3.5+2.0+2.0+1.0+1.0+3.3+5.5+7.0+8.5
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New Polls

DW

TX POLL By Texas Public Opinion Research managed to find 15% undecided in the senate race, 13% in the Governor race, and 23% in the AG race.

SEN
🟦 James Talarico: 45%
🟥 Ken Paxton: 40%
——
GOV
🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 45%
🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 42%
——
AG
🟥 Mayes Middleton: 39%
🟦 Nathan Johnson: 38%

Three US House polls from Bullfinch Group, a Dem outfit that earned an F grade in 2024 for a 6.28 skew to Democrats.

AK-01 POLL

🟥 Nick Begich (inc): 46%
🟦 Nick Schultz: 32% (dropped out)
🟨 Bill Hill: 20%
——

  • Bullfinch Gr./@Independent_Cen
  • 7/13-16 | 793 LV

IOWA 01 POLL

🟦 Christina Bohannan: 40%
🟥 M. Miller-Meeks (inc): 35%
🟨 Michael Bridgford: 11%

  • Bullfinch/@Independent_Cen
  • 7/13-16 | 793 LV

CA-06 POLL

🟦 Richard Pan (D): 39%
🟨 Kevin Kiley (I): 35%

  • Bullfinch/@Independent_Cen
  • 7/13-16 | 741 LV

31 responses to “New Polls”

  1. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Gee arresting criminals and deporting illegals work

    https://x.com/SenJudiciaryGOP/status/2081810399188394045

    Like

  2. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Tx rino senator who lost re election accuses Senator Lee of demoralizing the Rs

    This loser should Stfu

    Like

  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    If Talarico was really up by five he would not have gone public with support of slavery reparations to win back Jasmine Crockett supporters.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Those tx poles are imagination. Much like Baris did. Say they are fake

    Like

  5. DW Avatar
    DW

    Its just a matter of looking at candidate behavior. Even Silverhack has TX Senate Lean R. There is no track record for “Texas Public Opinion Research” but their large percentage of undecided speaks for itself.

    Like

  6. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Trump also told Fox that he would rather the U.S. leave its trilateral trade deal with Canada and Mexico than renegotiate it.

    “I don’t care. I mean, I don’t really want to. I’d rather be independent,” Trump said when asked if he was still looking to update the deal known as USMCA, which the U.S. this month decided not to renew.

    “Here’s the thing: Mexico and Canada need us. We don’t need them. The deal is important for them. It’s not important for us,” he said.

    ***Well past time to exit this trade deal. NAFTA was and is a disaster

    Like

  7. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Tina will not be happy until the U.S. does not trade with anybody.

    Like

  8. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The free passers love trade deals that screw the us

    Like

  9. DW Avatar
    DW

    one more detail about that texas poll from the Texas Tribune: “TPOR labels itself as a nonpartisan public opinion research group. It is directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford.”

    Like

  10. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    EricLDaugh

    ·

    🚨 HOLY CRAP! A bombshell Michigan poll just found Trump-endorsed Mike Rogers (R) LEADING Muslim socialist Abdul El Sayed (D) by +10 POINTS, 49%-39%, in the 2026 US Senate race — Glengariff Group

    Like

  11. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Zzzzzzzzzz The Cult thinks the U.S. has everything it needs so it can sink all of its ships and destroy all airplanes so it does not trade with anybody

    Like

  12. DW Avatar
    DW

    Okay, I am not one to fail to own up to it when I was wrong. I told Jason and Phil yesterday that I wasn’t sure about rooting for El-Sayed to get the nomination in Michigan because I wasn’t sure he was the easier out. They were right, and I was wrong:

    MICHIGAN POLL – Senate

    🟥 Mike Rogers: 49%

    🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 39%

    ——

    Poll was commissioned by Business Leaders For Michigan (BLM) and the Michigan Education Association (MEA)

    Glengariff Group | 7/22-24 | 600 LV

    Like

  13. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16010445/Seattle-shooting-mayor-Katie-Wilson-gangs-suspects.html

    I hate when small groups start shooting.

    Like

  14. DW Avatar
    DW

    For those keeping score at home, the Glengariff Group got a C grade in 2024 for a 4.5 skew to Harris in their final poll of Trump vs Harris.

    Like

  15. DW Avatar
    DW

    The same poll with Stevens numbers:

    SENATE

    🟦 Haley Stevens: 46%

    🟥 Mike Rogers: 45%

    Like

  16. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I am suspicious of that poll, sounds like a last ditch effort to help Stevens.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Tina will not be happy until the U.S. does not trade with anybody”

    Yeah, once she achieves that she will try to cut off Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Alaska because they are located beyond the beach.

    Like

  18. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Has Tina given Trump a free pass yet for being “enamored” with Fauci?

    In a May 21, 2020, entry, Fauci wrote about his explosive national fame and noted, “POTUS seems to be enamored of me even though I am taking the spotlight away from him”.

    Like

  19. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Polymarket thinks Sayed is pretty much a lock.

    https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner

    Like

  20. DW Avatar
    DW

    Its one week until the Michigan primary, so not sure this late that a poll like this would swing the momentum.

    Like

  21. DW Avatar
    DW

    I guess another aspect to this to consider is the fact that the more El-Sayeds there are who win the primary, the more it gives the national impression that the Democratic Party itself has has been taken over by far left radicals helping the GOP in a year we need some help.

    Liked by 1 person

  22. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I saw an ad when I was in Alaska that condemned corporations that used huge trawlers to catch salmon and crabs rather than local boats. That is definitely a niche issue.

    Like

  23. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Sure the freepassers fell for this B.s.

    heEconomist

    Unless traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes soon, oil prices could top the $139 intraday high of 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and rise towards $150 a barrel by September, warns one expert

    Like

  24. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Big oil needs to step up. It’s ridiculous that oil has fallen $12+ the last few days, yet the national average is only down. 1 cent.

    Liked by 1 person

  25. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Sure the freepassers fell for this B.s.

    Then it should be easy for you to name them, Tina.

    Like

  26. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Interesting tidbit from the funeral service for Sen. Lynsey Graham.

    Seems his grandfather had a device to crack crabs open to get to the meat out to eat. It was made of coin silver. That thing had been in his family for generations.

    Sen. Graham has gifted it to the state of SC to put it in the State museum.

    It is called “the Graham cracker.”

    Like

  27. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    I recall it was Tina and myself who criticized Fauci and wanted Trump to fire him. It was Jason and I think Bitter who said it would not look good for Trump to fire Fauci because of his political and scientific status. I don’t remember Trump ever bring “enamored” with Fauci. He really didn’t have many choices but stick with the man so admired by the press and the public.

    Like

  28. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Emily Jashinsky

    @emilyjashinsky

    ·

    Follow

    Fauci backchanneled questions to Jake Tapper for his interview with Trump’s assistant secretary for health. He’d recently been over to the Tapper home for dinner and wrote “Friendship building.” Tapper had also been texting Fauci his private thoughts on Deb Birx.

    Like

  29. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    WV politics news

    Seems that Delegate Pritt (who HAD been a registered D but changed to an R and won his seat 4 yeRs ago) has been arrested on charges of grooming female students he taught and having sex with one girl in school, during school hours, about 5 to 10 times.

    He is a married man and he and his wife have created several young kids in their family.

    Of course people are outraged.

    A move was underway to call a special session to expel him from the House of Delegates. Pritt has now resigned.

    Problem is, he is on the ballot for November election. According to the New law passed by the WV legislature in the 60 day session early this year on how to fill vacancies for ca didatrs and electrd officials and what to do when a candidate on the ballot who won the May primary–THERE IS NO PROVISION FOR THE R party to pick a reacement candidate. So…The sex offender’s name will remain on the ballot for the Nov election along with the D challenger.

    THERE IS NO LEGAL WAY TO REMOVE HIS NAME FROM THE BALLOT FOR THE NOV. ELECTION IN THIS CIRUMSTANCE.

    UNDER THE NEW LAW, if a candidate DIES, and there are more than 84 days before the election, the R party could choose a replacement candidate.

    But no provision outlining what to do about replacing a candidate who won in May primary if a candidate is arrested and/or convicted and sent to prison after the May primary but before the Nov election….. or goes insane….or whatever….

    If less than 84 days before the Nov election, a dead person’s name remains on the ballot and if the dead person wins. THEN the governor can choose a replacement person who must be a member of that dead person’s political party…

    What a mess.

    No this is NOT a joke. I WISH IT WAS.

    Like

  30. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I don’t remember Trump ever bring “enamored” with Fauci.

    Really? Trump seemed pretty enamored with him during the daily press conference they did together for months.

    Like

  31. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Yup Jan. They loved fauci and demanded more vax boosters.

    Like

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