Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.0 / 56.0 | -15.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.1 / 53.1 | -8.0 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Republican +1 | 218 | 217 |
According to a new poll by UNH. Democrat challenger Helena Foulkes leads the poll over the incumbent governor 45-11, raising questions as to what happened to the other 44% of the vote. But the larger question is how badly a Dem in a deep blue state could get so messed up as to lose the primary by this margin.
Attending the annual WV Wildflower Pilgrimage”
Gayest post of the day but it’s still early.
Jason lives in a rural area surrounded by wildflowers. Closeted? Discuss.
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President of CVS. I wonder if she will lose the environmentalist vote because of the absurdly long receipts.
The bad cold snap a week ago has been pretty devastating to the orchaed industry in Eastern WV some orchardists say they were 100% wiped out and all the blossoms on their fruit trees froze despite all attemp to prevent that. Other orchardists say 75% wiped out.
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Walt, tomorrow Cash Cow is sitting in the news desk again while Homer is away. There is a good chance she might draw attention to the missing calves. Stay tuned.
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Jason lives in a rural area surrounded by wildflowers.”
Bitter has never been to a rural area in his whole life but knows what kind of flowers there are?
Oh wait, I forgot, he is a regular at the Flower Show so I guess that qualifies as an expert.
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64 calves got Cownapped in Ohio the other day.”
I prefer to think of it as veal on the hoof.
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What it looks like when a once great empire slits its own throat and allows the Visigoths and Ostrogoths to just take it over and be done with it:
Headline: Illegal Boat Arrivals to the UK Now Near 200K As Terror Threat Raised to “Severe”
What they are doing mirrors the fall of Rome.
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Bitter has never been to a rural area in his whole life but knows what kind of flowers there are?
Zzzzzzzzz. I have been to many rural areas. Do you want a list? GFY
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Bitter has seen several cows in his lifetime. Once he even saw a donkey and maybe a goat or sheep, he is not sure what it was.
Supposedly his friends and neighbors were interested in his safari adventures. One of his wine sipping liberal friends oohhh and ahhhhd ….”I heard there is life outside of Radnor, you are so brave to venture out on it”.
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Bad Philadelphia is not a rural area….
How about Central and South Jersey, Pennsylvania beyond cities and suburbs, Maryland, Delaware, New York, Virginia, North Carolina, England, Ireland, Italy, Canada, Russia. Ukraine, Finland (those states and countries outside of cities and suburbs)?
Odd that Jason did not know that there are so many rural areas just in PA.
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Bitter was on safari in Central Jersey?
Of course. There was an amusement park that also had a small nature preserve with elephants, giraffes and other animals. My dad was not happy that monkeys jumped on the car. I thought it was cool.
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”Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton appears to have a clear lead heading into the Republican Senate primary runoff against Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, a recent survey has revealed.
Paxton led with 47% support among likely voters in the latest Remington Research Group survey. Cornyn trailed with 36% while 17% were undecided.
The survey also found that Paxton enjoyed stronger favorability rankings among Texas Republican primary likely voters, with 51% holding a favorable view of him and 30% viewing him unfavorably. Cornyn, by contrast, had a 34% favorability and 45% unfavorable rating.
The runoff is set for May 26. Cornyn emerged narrowly ahead in the original contest, but fell short of the threshold to avoid a runoff. The elimination of Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, from the contest, appears to have largely benefited Paxton.
Conducted May 3-5, the survey questioned 1,810 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 2.6%.”
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TN has passed it’s 9-0 map. Dems freak out as usual.
Tennessee lawmakers approve new House map to eliminate Democratic-held seat – The Washington Post
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I have updated the House Forecast page at the top. Currently D+5. This is with the new VA map included, presuming the VA high court will give the Dems what they want. But this does NOT include any changes yet from TN, LA, MS, or AL. The new FL map is included.
Still working out some kinks.
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okay I went ahead and added the Tennessee seat. If the VA high court upholds the throw out of the Dem map, we have a shot.
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DW, doesn’t seem like AL will give us anything this year (probably next), nor MS (though it’s an outside chance). We get +1 from TN, and right now, only +1 from LA b/c Landry is playing favorites again, this time giving Fields a BR to Nola AA seat to get rid of the Nola Dem Congressman instead of nuking both seats. By the math above, that’s 218R-217D with the new VA map in place. If that gets tossed, then my math says that will adjust to 222R-213D, correct?
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Sorrym 221-214 status quo since you counted the TN seat already.
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GF, I made a mistake, I already included the LA-06 flip or was it LA-02 that flips?
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Depends on the final map; LA-2 is NOLA, 6 is the squiggly arm that currently snakes it way up towards Shreveport from BR.
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Cornyn is in big trouble here in Texas.
Rich Baris says Paxton with all his baggage will win a general election while Cornyn would lose. He says his polling indicates Republicans are so pissed at milk toast Cornyn that they simply won’t show up in the numbers necessary to win in November. I’ve learned to trust Baris when he analyzes a race. His polling record speaks for itself.
He also says that Lisa Murkowski has told her inner circle that if the Senate deadlocks at 50 Senators a piece she will caucus with the Democrats. Given what we have seen of Murkowski in the past I absolutely believe it.
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so with LA and TN included my current forecast is Dem+5, 220 to 215.
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So, accounting for that, 220-215 if the Lucasmander is struck down, 219-216 if upheld.
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I don’t believe Paxton is a better candidate than Cornyn for the GE, sorry.
Baris has been wrong before.
If I still voted in Texas, and if I was still a Republican, I would vote for Cornyn.
I know, a lot of ifs.
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So Tina and Janzam are funding illegals to campaign for Becerra?
Shame on them!
NEW FROM CAL DOGE: California taxpayer $$$ funding illegal immigrants to campaign for Xavier Becerra, in violation of federal law. Taxpayer-funded non-profit CHIRLA endorsed Becerra April 13th. Our investigation reveals payments to illegal immigrants for campaign activity:”
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A whole bunch of ifs for sure. Paxton is loaded with baggage, but Cornyn is perceived as a squish. Remember, ideological conservatives are the ones who vote in the primary. I’m torn simply because I don’t know who would poll best in November. My bottom line is to vote for the candidate who is the strongest vs the whacko Democrat in the GE. The part that scares me is that for the first time more Democrats voted in the Democratic Primary than Republicans in the R primary. That’s a danger sign.
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There will be WWII Special narrated by Tom Hanks starting May 26 on the History Channel
Given that Hanks is a little Hollywood Marxist apparatchik, I hope we are not going to find out that it was LBGTQ+ soldiers who won the war. Or that blacks/minorities won the war despite the fact 400k American whites were killed vs. 800 blacks (due to the fact that while there 1.2 million blacks who served and provided valuable support services, the vast majority of them were barred from combat roles. There were exceptions like the Tuskegee airmen ).
There is great potential for this to be a good series, no doubt. There is a ton of fascinating stuff about WWII still to be discovered. I will watch the first episode. I am not optimistic it won’t be woke, but at least the promos seem interesting.
I do expect a lot of revisionism regarding what led up to Pearl Harbor and the use of nuclear weapons against Japan. If it is fairly presented, no problem.
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Murkowski’s term ends in 2028. She cannot get elected as a Dem, probably can’t even win a Dem primary.
I am not so sure she will want to throw in her lot with the Dem crazies .
There is also a chance that if she does that, Fetterman would caucus with the Rs.
Actually, I think that is more likely than Murkowski flipping.
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I will watch all 20 hours. Deal with it.
I have watched several shows about the Tuskegee Airmen and also the black tank crews. They were expected to fight and die for a country that treated them like dirt and they did. True heroes.
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800 blacks who sacrificed more than for America than every person at HHR. Every American casualty mattered equally.
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Reform kicking Labour in the teeth right now. It’s still early, but the LAB vote is dropping an average of 21 points, even worse in many deep Red hinterlands like Manchester. These are not merely Tories voting tactically; REF is almost winning outright majorities in boroughs were the LAB vote was previously in the 70s-80s, but now down to the low 30s or high 20s.
Scotland and Wales will count tomorrow.
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One Tuskegee Airman said that when he returned home (after being a POW), he was not allowed to leave the troopship until the whites disembarked. Disgusting.
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I donate to the Tuskegee Airmen Museum.
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Almost none of them are still alive. True heroes.
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They were a good looking group of men too. Their historical participation in the war is being kept alive in their museum.
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I think RI needs a strong governor who will expand the amount of square miles the state covers. They are tired of always being the littlest state.
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https://www.thoughtco.com/us-states-by-area-1435125
Maybe Rhode Island could seize Wilmington.
My wife is from Delaware. She said the state has more chickens than people as it is pretty rural outside of Wilmington and the beach towns.
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Has anyone else noticed that DW has reduced his 2026 Forecast House from 21 seats for the Democrats just a couple of days ago to 13 D’s House seats this mornimg to just now 5 Democrats House seats.
DW?
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I hope that the WW2 series properly documents the contributions of the Inca-Americans in the war.
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One has to be pretty ignorant, either willingly or not, to not be able to recognize that Democrats are going to win a very large number of House seats this cycle.
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Can somebody explain the results in the UK? I know that Labour lost big because the PM is despised. However, it seems the Tories did not benefit but the Reform and Green Parties did. Not exactly a rightward lurch.
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there are many factors that go into my formula for the house forecast. Some of the perceived closing of the gap is because FL, LA, and TN redistricting was added to the chart, and some due to the tighter genetic ballot staying closer in the Morning Consult, and Economist/you gov.
Dems are still favorite to get control, and it’s still early but the size of the control is limited based on many factors.
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Trump needs to do a better job explaining how Biden raised gas prices because he destroyed our infrastructure in his crazy war on gas, but with Trump it was to keep us safe from an enemy who wants to destroy us
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The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
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