According to Bowling Green State University poll
Senate
Jon Husted (inc): 50%
Sherrod Brown: 47%
Other: 3%
——
Governor
Vivek Ramaswamy: 48%
Amy Acton: 47%
Other: 5%
——
Generic Ballot
GOP: 48%
DEM: 43%
——
BGSU/YouGov | 4/7-14 | 1,000 RV
- Husted up 3 in Ohio
- Still Close in California
- Sunday Open Thread
- Finally Friday
- Michigan Senate Dem Primary
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.0 / 56.0 | -15.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.1 / 53.1 | -8.0 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
Husted up 3 in Ohio
89 responses to “Husted up 3 in Ohio”
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Polymarket has the Yes vote at 86%.
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The 86% at Polymarket is about what I would expect given all we have are a couple of polls showing Yes up a few points. But how many in those polls fully understood the implications of Yes/No given the Democrats wrote the question? I think its going to be close, and the Span-burglar job approval is probably a better gauge of the referendum. Its going to come down to turnout. Independents should be on the GOP side regardless the party they vote for in November, because they will want choices in November.
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Betty Yee has suspended her campaign for CA governor, not wanting to run the risk of being Swalwelled.
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This podcast is long, but I encourage everyone to watch it. A professor from Dallas interviews three co-authors of a new book dealing with logic and sound reasoning. They are coming from a Christian world-view perspective, but what they say is applicable to the logic used in everyday life, and they even get a little into politics. The logical fallacies they speak to illustrate part of why our society is in such a mess.
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Last minute talks to begin with Iran. Expect Iranians to offer promise of an agreement in order to extend the ceasefire….and as usual it’s the same old empty promise. Delay, Delay, Delay. String us along to avoid getting hit. It’s the same old BS. Same playbook as always. It never changes. Extend the ceasefire for an empty promise of progress. Rinse and repeat.
If Trump extends the ceasefire he’s playing right into their hands. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what I expect to happen. I hope I’m wrong, but I’ve just seen this movie too many times before.
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Reuters/IPSOS has never been friendly to Republicans as far back as I can recall. But here is their new generic ballot:
Reuters/Ipsos
Democrats 41
Republicans 38
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If we had a real Senate Leader, Tillis would be kicked off the committee. But, as you know, Thune works against Trump a lot
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Dickliss is being an a hole about the confirmation hearings for the new fed chairperson nomination. All because dickliss wants no investigation of the current fed chairperson
swamp protects swamp.
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SPAM-BURGLAR!!!!
LOL!
VA Dems “big rig job” will be decided today.
And then redecided by the VA supreme court, and then the SCOTUS.
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Tillis has been useless his entire second term in the Senate. It’s his kind of Republican that makes the party rank in file distrust the party. Romney is gone so I guess Tillis felt it left an opening to be the new MSM’s favorite Republican. He stepped right in. He and Murkowski competing to be the left’s favorite useful idiot. I still give the edge to Murkowski who only stays in office because of ranked choice voting in Alaska. Collins I give some slack to since she is from a blue state and voted to confirm Kavanaugh who made it by one vote (Murkowski voted no of course). McConnell? He is just a useless dick – a no on the Save America Act BTW. No voter ID necessary, right Mitch?
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One Virginia Beach precinct had very light voting over the early lunch hour. It is a district that is 60/40 Dem.
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If forced to make a prediction, I would expect that No will be ahead for much of the evening, and then with 99% of the vote already in across northern Virginia, suddenly 9000 Yes votes will drop out of nowhere, and put yes over the top 50.2 to 49.8.
I have seen this movie before and it always ends the same way. I am still shocked that didn’t happen in 2021 when Youngkin came out on top. The only thing I can figure is that the guy with a car trunk stuffed with McAwful ballots either drove the wrong car to the precinct counting place or had a flat tire on the way.
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Most at HHR would love a system where 435 Republicans would be elected to the House. They are just angry Dems are working hard on electing 435 Dems to the House.
Discuss
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DW, make of it what you will;
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GF, was just posting the same thing. Hard to say, because the polls are still open another six hours and 18 minutes. Lots of time for them to catch up.
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Besides, if those people don’t show up, whose to say that their ballots still won’t be cast?
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Regrettably, I think Yes pulls it out, but it’s MUCH closer than people expect. Doesn’t help the GOP, it’s the same whether it passes by fifteen points or just fifteen votes, but perhaps a good indicator that Dems can still cook themselves with their extreme overreach.
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GF, early on the ads and messaging was overwhelmingly on the YES side of the vote. Then about three weeks ago, it evened out, and then the last week, it was entirely the NO side. So the GOP, at least in my part of the state, kept the powder dry until the last week before the voting.
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Barring a massive last minute shift this afternoon, NO will win the ED vote handily. It’s just that the EV will be so lopsidedly YES that it’s hard for me to see that being overcome. As far as I’m concerned, the only thing that will matter is that the EV is something like only 4% from what I saw (maybe that was the strictly mail vote, not early in person). If that’s correct, NO has an outside shot.
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https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-by-locality/
Here is the page if you want to see the early voting. The way it looks to me is NO has a shot, but only if there is overwhelming election day turnout in all the rural parts of the state. I doubt that will happen.
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The YES vote certainly has an 8 to 1 cash advantage over the more rural NO grass roots. However, in the past money has not always won out over an opponent backed by an energized coalition of volunteers. I hope VA is able to overcome this unfair proposition that will disenfranchise such a large swarth of conservative voters.
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Thune works against Trump a lot”
Zzzzzz…..
He doesn’t work “against” Trump.
He is not a rubber stamp for Trump, which is different. The Senate and House are a separate branch of government, and their role is not to act as doormats for the President.
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Polymarket still at 85%, but that is down from 93% a week ago.
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jason I have anecdotal evidence that young people in Virginia are overwhelmingly voting YES. Even many who voted for the GOP ticket in 2025.
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Skeptical about that. Young voter turnout on special elections is dismally low.
I find it hard to believe they would be that motivated for a gerrymander effort.
I think the problem is the female boomer vote, they will be out in droves.
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Two different teachers in Fairfax County Public Schools urged students to go home and persuade their parents to vote yes on the measure to make Virginia’s maps “as fair as they can be,” to “stop Donald Trump at all costs.”
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10-1 is “fair” I guess.
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Joy Reid: “Democrats do not play politics the way Republicans do.
They try to play by the rules.”
Maury Povich: LOL”
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“Five months after he was fired as a U.S. immigration judge, Jeremiah Johnson found himself rumbling into the highlands of Guatemala on a crowded bus, a bouquet of flowers in hand. His unusual, if poetic, mission: to visit relatives of an indigenous family who fled their village for the United States and won asylum in his courtroom. Johnson, 52, served nearly a decade as an immigration judge in San Francisco, in a famously liberal circuit, hearing hundreds of asylum cases. Day in, day out, he heard stories of political and religious persecution, torture, violence, rape. He granted asylum 89% of the time”
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Maury Povich is still alive? What does he do these days?
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I guess he interviews Marxist hacks like Joy Reid…
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The Atlantic changes its headline from “Patel erratic behavior” to “Patel MIA”
MS NOW retracts their .”Patel spends more time in nightclubs than his office” is a “misstatement” because it hasn’t been verified.
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Irvine police have arrested a man on suspicion of stealing Lego pieces by removing them from their boxes and replacing them with dried pasta. The man would then allegedly return the boxes to Target for a refund.
The scheme — carried out in states across the country — added up to $34,000 in stolen or damaged property from 70 known or suspected incidents, according to investigators.”
Is nothing sacred?
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Holy crap! The U.S. Navy just seized nearly 2M barrels of Iranian crude in the Indian Ocean. Tanker Tifani, loaded at Kharg Island and heading to China, boarded without a shot fired. Trump’s team is draining Tehran’s cash at sea.LikeLike
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The free passers will blame us for seizing that oil as well as seizing the ship wih the Ccp chemicals.
It’s Ccp or bust in free passer land.
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“Big upticks in NoVA in the late morning hours. Democrats are starting to see the kind of turnout they need to hang on here, and YES is even more clearly favored than this morning.”
Honestly, YES was always going to win. Far more Democrats in Virginia than Republicans, and Independents don’t really care about choices, at least not enough to show up and vote.
And voters in western Virginia don’t seem to care because they will still have the one GOP seat left.
But the Dems had the money, they wrote the question for the ballot, and they have lied about the resolution over and over and over. Calling fair what is completely unfair.
Its the losing campaign that on election day starts talking about grassroots, and late efforts, and so forth.
My final prediction is that Yes will win 55.5 to 44.5.
Sad day for the country and for Virginia. The house is gone this fall. And the next two years nothing but gridlock and a million more impeachment votes.
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Armed with rifles, two suspects just pulled off a bold $1.8 million heist on a Brinks armored truck in Philadelphia. They escaped clean this morning.”
Bitter to say calm down, this was in Bad Philadelphia, no worries.
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Iranian negotiators begin their usual stall for time game today and tomorrow. Worthless negotiating which never works and won’t bring any results this time. It’s not designed to. It’s the usual play for time game by the Iranians. It will push another one of Trump’s red lines back and delay any resumption of US military bombardment. It will work, too. It always does.
At least this time we will still continue the economic squeeze – the blockade, seizing Iranian oil on the high seas, sanctions, freezing their bank accounts in Gulf countries.
With any other government, especially a government presiding over an economy in shambles, that would be enough to get them to cry uncle. Probably not with this bunch of loons, however. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. This Vahidi guy in charge is supposedly insane and worse than all the dead guys we’ve eliminated. Maybe, Mossad has a bead on him, and he will get a dirt nap. Anyway, Iran will succeed in putting off any imminent military action by the US. It’s the way this always plays out.
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DARK MONEY: Soros-linked network funnels $64M into Virginia redistricting referendum through groups with no IRS filings on record.
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in “honest” the H is silent, in “tsunami” the T is silent, in “knife” the K is silent.
with “wife” what is silent?
the husband.
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perhaps I have underestimated the win that YES will get tonight in Virginia. Maybe it will be NO 41 / Yes 59. Maybe as bad as 39/61.
Virginia is just that far gone, and the hatred for Trump is still palpable. The left can shoot and kill Charlie Kirk, and conservatives in Virginia shrug their shoulders and don’t bother to vote. It seems that the far left has won the national debate and we are on the path where communism must be tried here, and it will be tried, and the USA will be no more because of it.
People are now ruled by their emotions rather than logic and reasoning. Every person is free to build their own world-view, their own “truth” no matter how incompatible it is, even within one’s own philosophical structure. People are free to embrace 1+1=2 and 1+1=3 at the same time and not feel the least bit uncomfortable with that incompatibility, because they live in their own little truth bubble they have created for themselves.
The problem is, when a foreign enemy takes us over, all those little truth bubbles will be popped and the harsh new reality will become everyone’s reality, even those of us who tried to stop the country from going there.
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“Grand Jury indicts Southern Poverty Law Center with multiple counts of fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering.”
https://x.com/cameron_arcand/status/2046703579545665980
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if I was elected president and thinking about organizing my cabinet I might consider giving VA governor Evil Gale Spam Burger a roll…
possibly even a biscuit.
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I went to a funeral for my wife’s aunt. There is a Jewish ritual at the grave service where the mourners shovel dirt onto the coffin (because the deceased can’t) as a last work of charity to the dead. The sound of the dirt hitting the coffin is like a shot to the heart and really makes the death final.
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Yes winning easily as expected.
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nbc news mocking the GOP by highlighting the deception using RED for yes and BLUE for no in the results
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I don’t know about “easily,” NO is back in the lead by two points with a bit over 25% reporting. We’ll see where things are at 50-75% reporting.
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And now just under five points with 30% in, I expect it to swing back and forth, it will be closer than many expect.
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Of course, Fairfax will come in at the last minute as always. Henrico is out, too.
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40% in now, NO leads by 9.76%, or about 118,xxx votes.
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GF, its over
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The rural red counties over-performed, giving the NO vote a lead most of the time. However, Fairfax seems to be dragging, and will probably dump its results towards the end. Nonetheless, it’s amazing how competitive the NO vote has been, considering the great disparity in money spent on both campaigns.
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Redistricting
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Response
Votes
Pct.
Yes
1,173,861
49.4%
No
1,204,417
50.6%
74.8% expected votes in (Est. remaining 801,000)
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Jan – You also mention the disparity in funding that favors Democrats. How much did you donate to counter it?
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ech
@bdomenech
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1h
Did the SPLC actually fund the freaking Charlottesville march???
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So the fine people hoax was actually a hoax? Whon would have thought that?
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Hmm. Maybe the R legislatures will now do the same. Or surrender like the Fake Rs in Indiana did – aided and abetted by depends, Mike.
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just as soon as yes takes the lead they call it
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There are going to be a lot of legal challenges still.
Generally SCOTUS gives states latitude in the election districting but this might be over the top.
48% (just an estimate) voted against it and they are going to be subject to a 10-1 congressional map?
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The map is a sea or red, maybe 10-12 counties voted yes.
It’s going to be a lot closer than DW predicted.
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No is winning in Virginia Beah.
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Ok let’s go for the treasure on Oak Island and stop chit chatting about inconsequential stuff.
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just as soon as yes takes the lead they call it
Too much of a coincidence IMO.
Bitter, I contribute when I can……
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According to NBC
ED vote (59%) No 54% Yes 46%
Early in Person (30%) Yes 52% No 48%
VBM 10% Yes 72% No 22% (difference 130k votes)
So if the difference is less than 130k votes it was decided by VBM.
So far with 92% in the margin is 70k votes.
Let’s see
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How was thevVA referendum worded?
Did it say “Are you for or against NOVA controlling 10 of VAs 11 congressional districts? YES NO
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gIMMIE a link to VA vote counts
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This clenches the House for the Democrats in ’26
D+5 in California
D+4 in Virginia
D+1 in Nevada (stolen by Democrat hack judge)
D+1 Maryland (just as soon as Dems redistrict)
vs
R+5 in Texas
R+1 in Missouri
R+1 possible in Florida.
A special thanks to Republicans in Indiana. Way to go Pence. F You.
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8 counties…
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Switching around channels. MS Whatever blames Texas for starting the redistricting fight and California and Virginia just tried to correct the injustice.
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They would have done it regardless of what Texas did. The other side plays to win. Republicans? Tillis, Murkowski, Romney, Pence……need I go on?
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TX has 40 EV’s so a change of 5 seats is very minor compared to a change of 5 seats in an 11 seat delegation.
I think there is plenty of grounds to challenge it.
If you look at the results map, you are disenfranchising a lot of votes in VA.
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Iranians don’t seem happy about Trump extending the ceasefire. Trump gave them what they were prepared to try and get through stalling with negotiations to nowhere. They were looking forward to their usual game I guess. I guess the blockade is really biting them in the ass. No oil revenue coming in and running out of oil storage. Will have to cap their wells in a week or ten days. Instead of going in and taking their oil port island by force, Trump simply took it out of commission by blockading it. No American or Iranian casualties. Yeah, that Trump is a real war criminal alright.
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WARREN: Name one aspect of Trump’s economic agenda you disagree with.
WARSH: He said I’m ‘out of central casting.’ I’d look older, greyer and show up with a cigar of sorts.
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VA voting districts
95 counties and 38 cities
On the ballot initiative to allow a change in the VA state constitution to allow the politicians (not an independent t non political commission)to redraw the house of representatives district lines now and not wait until the 2030 census…
The vote appears to be………… 51% YES and 49% NO
☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
13 counties voted YES
82 counties voted NO
…plus ALL the DC area cities of Fairfax, Falls Church, Arlington, etc voted YES as well as a majority in maybe 5 other (Richmond, Norfolk, etc.) of the 38 cities.
They SHOULD have BEEN HONEST and worded the ballot as:
“Are you For or Against redrawing and gerrymandering the district lines for House of Representstive so that voters in Northern Virginia counties near Washington DC can control and determine 5 or 6 of the 11 districts in Virginia? YES OR NO”
Sounds fair to me…
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The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
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