Insider Advantage Trump Job Approval:
Approve 50
Disapprove 46
- Finally Friday
- Tight Race for CA Governor
- Collins in Trouble in Maine
- Tuesday: State of the Union Speech
- 46 Years
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
Insider Advantage on to Something?
97 responses to “Insider Advantage on to Something?”
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Ras was also at 48/47 the last few days.
Perception of economy have improved and inflation has fallen.
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Tina wants Trump to take Canada, Greenland, and Diego Garcia. She also wants Putin to take Ukraine. Both can be true.”
Cuba feels left out.
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US makes into semis in women’s curling by about 3 inches.
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2026 Generic Congressional Ballot 
Democrats: 44% [-1] 
Republicans: 41% [+1] 
Not sure: 11% —— • White: GOP 45-39% • Black: Dem 70-8% • Hispanic: Dem 47-43% Yahoo/YouGov | 2/9-12 | 1,146 RVLikeLike
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The congressional generic does not suggest a bloodbath. This is now MOE stuff.
And John is right, Aoc, Mandummi, and Temu Obama scare people.
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Da Bears have had enough of Chicago, moving to Indiana.
I hope they leave their wokeness in IL.
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Regarding Mn, I think trump was smart to do a reassessment. He paused briefly and then re led with Homan. It’s a lot easier to get the illegals when local Leo’s cooperate. Polling in Mn suggested that they were ok with ICE and wanted them there.
Deporting illegals has helped lower prices/rents as well as crime.
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And brilliant ice strategy- naming the illegals with criminal records/identifyingnthe crimes/showing mugshots
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Yahoo News also has this for the 2028 race:
Newsom 49, Vance 43
Tells me more about their polling in general. It says that they are getting juiced results from deep blue areas of the country, and it does not mean that OH, FL, NC, NV, PA, MI, WI, AZ, or GA suddenly loves Newsom.
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The other way to read this is that Newsome only has 12% more approval than Trump in California.
Newsome approval rating in CA is 44%, Trump at 32%.
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It says that they are getting juiced results from deep blue areas of the country,”
That is also the problem with national congressional generic.
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You Gov already a week old, usually only takes a coupe of days tops to process the raw data and release. Anyhow, that’s not bad at all. I could fret that single digits on the AA vote isn’t good, but at 1146 RVs, that sub-sample is going to be too small to be useful. The Hispanic is only slightly larger and *could* be masking some problems there, but ooverall, the fact that Dems are stuck at 39% with the largel white majority is a problem for them. They need to push that up into the low to mid-40s to have a chance.
RE: Newsom, he’s trailing Kamala in all early polling by a long shot. As much as I prefer Rubio to Vance, I highly doubt that JD is a whole six points behind the sleaziest Governor on the scene.
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Nuissance is a disaster. Highest unemployment, trains to nowhere, corruption everywhere, filthiest streets and homeless everywhere,
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Insider Advantage is one of the most accurate pollsters from 2024. Seems like Rasmussen spokesmouth and Baris both shat themselves. They have made of claims that trump lost his base over Iran, Vz, and Muh Epplestein. Despite their claims, they never showed their work. So, it’s their opinions.
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The spokesmouth for Ras sounds like an idiot. He said trump would benefit if he “blew up the housing market.” If that were to happen, it would be 2008 all over again.
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I don’t know why her Thighness is even speaking about no contact with Epplestein. Bj had 24 flights to the island. Maxwell was also at Chelsea’s wedding.
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The crazy part is if Prince Andrew were an illegal immigrant and he got arrested for pedophilia the Democrats would be fighting to stop his deportation.
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That’s the vacancy rate among corrections officers in New Hampshire Department of Corrections, a staffing shortage so severe the state canceled its August training academy and hired no new officers …
Jan. 28, 2026
That’s the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, a gap three downtown Las Vegas casinos are choosing to ignore by creating their own exchange rate …
Jan. 27, 2026
That’s how many people — more than half the U.S. population — faced disruptions as one of the country’s most severe winter storms in years swept from the Southwest to the Northeast last weekend …
Jan. 26, 2026
Amount in tickets issued in 2025 by a speed camera on Washington, D.C.’s Potomac River Freeway, topping the list of 10 of the District’s automatic traffic cameras that together issued $65 million worth of citations …
Jan. 23, 2026
That’s how many iconic, illuminated pylons are being temporarily removed from the entrance of Los Angeles International Airport as part of a roadway overhaul aimed at easing congestion ahead of the 2028 Summer Olympics …
Jan. 22, 2026
That’s the share of New Mexico physicians who say they are considering leaving the state …
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At the dealership, the good news was the found a second key fob for the car.
The bad news was somehow they LOST the passenger side floor mat. 😦
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I am exhausted myself just reading about Walt’s car buying saga.
I think it could be made into a mini series.
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Car buying saga….You have not heard the half of it…
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This nearly 60 year old American is very sad at the destruction of our nation by Trump.
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First estimate on 4th Quarter GDP just out – a disappointing 1.4% increase. PCE inflation rate 2.9%, still stubbornly above the 2% target.
I wonder what Eric Daugherty will say about that news? Probably nothing – hoping no one will notice.
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One reality that is impacting the polling numbers is the eroding enthusiasm of the MAGA base of the GOP party.
It has been quite a year and impacting the enthusiasm gap going into the midterms. This is being confirmed in many of the more accurate pollsters.
Assassination of Charlie. He was irreplaceable.
The Woke Rights growing influence, Jew hate and the evil Candace Owens influence.
The atrocious handling of the Jeffrey Epstein File by Bondi, Patel, etc. The binder incident and subsequent attempted cover up impacted dozens of die hard Trump influencers and independents. Many are disillusioned. The drain the swamp vibe died again just like Trump term 1.
Trumps priority of foreign policy in his second term.My hope would be codifying the Save America Act would help give a depressed base a reason to rally around Trumps push to save the House and Senate.
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per the Supreme Court, the IEEPA does not give the President the authority to impose tariffs.
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That is correct. Kavanaugh’s dissent talked about the complexity of determining and issuing refunds.
My guess is that since the Court asserted that the proper venue for this case is the Court of International Claims, that is where the determination about refunds will be assessed.
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@scotus_wire
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25m
Replying to @scotus_wire
The Court’s ruling applies only to tariffs imposed under IEEPA. The decision does NOT invalidate tariffs imposed under other statutes (e.g., Section 232 or Section 301). It holds only that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.
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Kavanaughs dissenting opinion takes a wrecking ball to Souter and Beotchy, the two dumbest “conservative members” on the court. Wow. He makes them look and sound illiterate.
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Yes, but Kavanaugh’s opinion was a DISSENT, which means he was on the LOSING side in this case. That would make him, in the frequent judgment of DJT, a LOSER. And anyone who sides with DJT would also be a LOSER in this case!
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I think the President does have the authority to impose tariffs, even if they are self defeating and just another tax on American consumers and businesses.
That being said, anything that reduces the detrimental impact of the tariffs is a positive.
Trump may not no it, but this may actually HELP the economy and HELP the GOP in the midterms.
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Trump may not KNOW it.
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But DRUDGE headlines says the U.S> will have to return $175 BIllion of money they got from Trump tariffs?
Are they right? Or wrong?
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Let’s give a SHOUT OUT to bald headed MR CLEAN. He is being retired after 68 years on the job. It was the TOP JOB that he ever held. HGe is making a CLEAN break from the company. He said it was a DIRTTY job, but someone had to do it. It is reported that he will CLEAN UP due to his retirement package.
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Tina could probably not defend herself against a parking ticket but understands a very complex jumble of majority, concurring and dissenting opinions.
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Cash Cow here (from Arizona)
Walt is miffed that he is the only person in the U.S. who has witnessed all 250 birthdays of the founding of the U.S., but is not being invited to any 250th ceremonies.
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Walt/Cow;
Did you ever hear Sinatra sing the Mr. clean jingle? “All day, all night, what a job! I just found out that Mr. Clean’s a dirty slob.”
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I believe it was on the B side of the hit “Brassieres…I love a broad with no brassieres” (Brazil).
He couldn’t have known how prophetic he was in crooning “I’m dancing with tears in my eyes, ‘cause the girl in my arms is a boy” and “Maria, I just met a boy named Maria!”
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Thomas is right about regulating importation. It has always included tariffs, quotas, and other restrictions.
This adds to another stupid decision by the court that inciudes the aea and obumbler care.
The justices on the winning side are scattered in their thoughts.
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https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2024871850556133698
trump has a plan b and Turley says there is a lot left in the arsenal.
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JeffP with his usual TDS idiocies.
There is no credible polling showing Trump losing MAGA support, otherwise he wouldn’t be at around 44% approval. Maybe the “credible” far left agenda polling JeffP sees on his favorite news source MS NOW.
Candace Owens? zzzz… she is popular with the Bunus, not MAGAS.
The atrocious handling of the Jeffrey Epstein File by Bondi, Patel, etc.”
Zzzzzzz…..
I am sorry your many posts suggesting Trump was guilty of anything didn’t pan out.
Better luck next time, but you are about 0-20 on your “got Trump” theories.
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It has always included tariffs, quotas, and other restrictions.”
Unfortunately, this is true, mainly because of the far left AFL-CIO protectionist agenda.
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A small win for free trade, free markets, free enterprise, limited government.
I will take it.
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Walt is miffed that he is the only person in the U.S. who has witnessed all 250 birthdays of the founding of the U.S., but is not being invited to any 250th ceremonies.”
Probably because some woke historian claims you were killed at the Battle of Hastings in 1066, but we know that was another Walt.
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Goldman Sachs says that despite the loss, tariffs remain
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He should implement them again and tout it in front of Souter and beitchy at the SOTU
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Always be suspicious of people who post here only when there is perceived “bad news” for Trump, when they were mute during the 10 million times Obama/Biden did something atrocious, and were mute the many times Trump did something good. And I am not a Trump cheerleader/cult member. But he is doing much more good than harm. Obama/Biden only did much harm.
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Kavanaughs dissent also provides a “road map” for Trump to implement tariffs other ways.
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Last night, @BIGDATAPOLL found Texas Republicans are far less enthusiastic (32%) and certain (62%) to vote than Texas Democrats at 54% and 68%, respectively.
Obviously that is correct.
If Republicans don’t wake up soon, they will be humiliated and absolutely could lose Texas.
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But he is doing much more good than harm. Obama/Biden only did much harm.
That’s quite a diplomatic statement from you, DW. I agree with it, even though we are often in disagreement. Looking at this latest tariff disappointment, I sometimes don’t see how Trump continues forward while traversing such a harsh obstacle course of resistance over two terms. Getting around capricious investigations, lawfare actions, indictments, no cooperation from the Dems or RINOs, and his own unruly disposition has made Trump’s presidency extremely challenging.
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BREAKING: Effective immediately, President Trump is signing a 10% PERCENT GLOBAL TARIFFS over and above normal tariffs
47 IS FIGHTING BACK! “All national security tariffs…REMAIN IN PLACE!” “I will sign an order imposing a 10% global tariff…over and above our normal tariffs already being charged.” “We’re also initiating investigations to protect our country from unfair trading practices of other countries and companies.
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TDS sufferers wait in vain thinking that MAGA voters will one day walk the aisle to confess their sins and proclaim allegiance to Romney and McCain as the future of the GOP.
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Government shutdown hit Q4 GDP of 1.4%, by -0.9%, vs an average contribution of +0.5%. That means Q1 GDP will be a catchup quarter and actual print will be 1.5% higher than where it should be: expect 3.5-4.0% print
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President Trump signs order imposing 10% global tariff, citing the Trade Expansion Act and 1974 Trade Act after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs. “I will go in a stronger direction now.” “Supreme Court made my ability to impose tariffs more powerful.” Hours after the ruling, tariffs are back under a different legal authority.LikeLike
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From amuse regarding SCOTUS tariff ruling:
”Justice Kavanaugh’s dissent, which President Trump highlighted immediately after the ruling, is the key to seeing why the practical impact is procedural more than substantive. Kavanaugh begins with a point that is both legally correct and civically important: “Those policy debates are not for the Federal Judiciary to resolve.” Courts interpret statutes, they do not run industrial policy. He then states the dissent’s core claim in plain language: “Like quotas and embargoes, tariffs are a traditional and common tool to regulate importation.” That is not rhetoric. It is the basic structure of American trade law. If you can restrict imports by banning them or capping them, you can restrict imports by charging for them. All are methods of regulating the flow of goods across the border.
Kavanaugh’s deeper point, and the one that matters even if you accept the majority’s reading, is that presidential tariff power does not rise or fall with IEEPA. It rests on a wide latticework of trade statutes that Congress has enacted over decades. Kavanaugh stresses that “numerous laws such as the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the Trade Act of 1974 continue to authorize the President to place tariffs on foreign imports in a variety of circumstances.” He adds a political fact that the press too often obscures: this is not some exotic Trump invention. Presidents George W. Bush, Obama, and Biden all imposed tariffs under these statutory authorities. Whatever you think of those tariffs, they were not treated as constitutional heresy. They were treated as policy”
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According to some on this site, Kavanaugh has been a wimp, a closet liberal, unreliable, and worthy of being called names. Now, all of a sudden, he is a genius. Really?
If you want to read a cogent discussion of the tariff case, I would recommend the Gorsuch concurrent opinion – it points out the constitutional objection to an imperial President.
And DW, I can’t help but take your comment about people who only come in to criticize as an attack on my participation. I only comment on things that I believe are economically significant, some of which are negative. I have attempted to balance the incessant cheerleading from others with some objective information. If you would rather HHR just be an echo chamber for the administration, feel free to ban me from commenting.
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Bill, of course you are free to post, and I welcome your participation. I am just saying it is suspicious whenever someone has only one axe to grind. I don’t want this place to be an echo chamber, but there is a balance to all this. I sometimes agree with Tina and Jan, but other times I don’t. I am not attacking your participation, but your balance. I don’t want HHR to be an echo chamber, but it need not be a soap box for one-issue crusaders either. Robbie and bunu were notorious for this, but conversely Big Joe was a dem who was comfortable with being polite and even agreeable where he could be. In short, lets have a discussion, not echos or crusaders.
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According to some on this site, Kavanaugh has been a wimp, a closet liberal, unreliable, and worthy of being called names. Now, all of a sudden, he is a genius. Really?
Reading excerpts of Kavanaugh’s opinion were interpreted by me not as “genius,” but rather a wider viewpoint of Trump’s tariff powers. Saying the sticking points were more “procedural” than “substantive” struck a positive chord with me, making the decision less a nuclear bomb than one still subject to being repaired.
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DW, WordPress keeps trashing my posts without even the courtesy of a moderation pause or a reach-around.
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Bessent:
Refund potential May be $130 billion vs $170/$175 billion. He indicated that this will be litigated for years and years. The low iq justices on the supremes offered no remedy about this.
opinion was discombobulated- justices all over the map.
Countries will need to comply with their agreeements or they will be embargoed and products cut off.
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Neil Gorsuch has been described by some to have libertarian tendencies. I think in the case of his perspective on tariffs such a tendency seeped out when writing his decision. His conclusion was manly anchored around a more constructive determination by congress, one that would endure longer than one made by one man – the president. However, with a congress Hell-bent on opposing any legislation by this president – good or bad for the people – I believe his conclusion to be faulty.
”Yes, legislating can be hard and take time. And, yes, it can be tempting to bypass Congress when some pressing problem arises. But the deliberative nature of the legislative process was the whole point of its design. Through that process, the Nation can tap the combined wisdom of the people’s elected representatives, not just that of one faction or man. There, deliberation tempers impulse, and compromise hammers disagreements into workable solutions.
And because laws must earn such broad support to survive the legislative process, they tend to endure, allowing ordinary people to plan their lives in ways they cannot when the rules shift from day to day. In all, the legislative process helps ensure each of us has a stake in the laws that govern us and in the Nation’s future.”
I also find Trump offered somewhat of an elixir to this disappointing decision, by feeling this long-awaited for decision would at least provide a sense of certainty to the markets, and where to go from here.
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So evidently, as part of this case, the sc had to kill a dc district ruling into Muh tariffs. The dc district judge lacked jurisdiction. This is the same sheot we are seeing from district judges in grants and contracts and immigration,
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Gorsuch basically said that tariffs are left to the Congress based on the constitution. While he is correcf, the Congress punted or gave up its powers. I won’t fault him for his decision as it’s well argued, unlike Souter and Beotchy.
Beotchy is our side Kenjah. She is not as dumb, however. Just thinks her sheot does not sfinkl
our side should not nominate a law purfessor again. Even Leslie mcadoo Gordon called her obnoxious,
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And those justices should know what the tools used to “regulate importation.”
I wonder how many were bought off by the Ccp?
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You would think the justices would have included details about refunds.
This legal ruling is a mess on so many different levels.LikeLike
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IF they collected $400 billion to $500 billion in tariffs, worse case $130 billion to $175 billion may have to be returned.
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Trump is missing the opportunity to turn the L into a W.
He should accept the ruling, lower tariffs will help the GOP win the November elections. He could say “I tried, they screwed me” and benefit from the ruling.
Instead, he wants to raise more stupid tariffs and start more stupid trade wars.
He can’t help himself.
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regulate importation.”
LOL
“regulate” my ass.
Tina means “no international trade”, “America is an isolated island with zero economic interests beyond its shores”
Don’t tell her limoncello is imported.
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So Susan Rice thinks corporations need to take a knee for Dems instead of Reps?
Susan Rice offers a taste of what’s coming should the left retake power — promises Democrats will punish corporations and other institutions who have “taken a knee to Trump.” “It’s not going to end well for them.” “If these corporations think that the Democrats, when they come back in power, are going to play by the old rules…they’ve got another thing coming.” “There will be an accountability agenda.” “This is not going to be an instance of forgive and forget.”
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Retribution tour to retaliate against the revenge tour that retaliated against the previous retribution tour.
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Fortunately no gay bars will be closing in Bittersville, PA.
“U.S. Gay Bars Are Closing Their Doors at a Heartbreaking Pace
From coast to coast, they play a crucial role in the LGBTQ+ community, and they’re disappearing.”
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Thursday evening coming back from son;s buying car in Frederick, MD. I was dangerously low on gas in my car. This began an incredibly run of good fortune for me that continued through today.
–stopped to by gas outside of Hagerstown, MD and filled up for $2.53 a gallon. (it is $2.90 here in WV now)
–we got a 1 and 3/4 inches of much needed rain in this drought stricken area that really did not get a whole lot of snow this winter as well as very sparce rain the whole summer and fall
Then today:
–most of the fricking snow has melted away around here since the temps today were almost spring-like warm
–found my cigars (boxes of 25 of both sweets and original Black and Mild) at the price I wanted at the very first stop for cigars.
–got a great deal on kitty litter at Walmart
–got a good deal on a 24 pack of Mt. Dews at WalMart
–found everything easily on my wife’s shopping list she sent me out with at Aldis and WalMart
–found a 2-cartridge thingie of printer ink tat Office Depot hat was about $20 less than normal price for 2 cartridges
–paid $11 for a specific pack of Sharpie markers at Office Depot my wife wanted, AND the store gave me a $10 off on next purchase coupon.
–I came home and tried to figure out how to fix my cell phone case (that I JUST bought a month ago) that fell off my belt yesterday when the metal clip tore off. I found a way to carefully cut a slit in the case and run the belt through the slits thus bypassing the need for a clip. (Yes a little more inconvenient every time I put it on my belt, but, still…)
THIS has been a good day.
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Walt invented fire, the wheel, farming and hunting. His thoughts on what makes a good day has really spiraled down
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instead he decided to insult the SCOTUS judges, implying that since he appointed them they should vote how he wants.
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Walt hasn’t made so many good deals shopping since he made a killing at the souk in Mesopotamia in 5698 BC.
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US women lost to Switzerland in the curling semi final
I am distraught, but maybe they can get bronze.
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Trump’s hissy fit against SCOTUS will play well to his MAGA base. The same MAGA base will sit out the midterms. Both can be true.
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New Thread
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The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
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