Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
152 responses to “Still Election Day…”
First
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Georgia is not posting live data on election day. They did it for early voting. Sounds sus
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Worried now.
Left wing hack Smercomish has a poll on his site.
Kamala has got 89%.
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fourth
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All Dem candidates in NJ, PA and DE stated in their ads that Republicans support a complete National Abortion Ban with no exceptions. Not sure how such a ban would ever become law since the filibuster (which Dems hate when used against them) would prevent it from ever being voted on by the Senate.
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On the other thread there was a comparison of favorable to unfavorable coverage, and it showed Harris far ahead of past elections in the favorable coverage vs negative for Trump.
The scariest part of all of it, She had more favorable coverage than Obama in 08. Someone please explain that to me. What has she ever done to warrant it?
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Given the rapid decline in fertility among all groups worldwide that is still continuing with no signs of slowing, it is not inconceivable that abortion will be made to be very hard to get at some point in the future. And the societal acceptance of it becomes very negative.
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Same way other laws were safe until your dipshit candidate and his cronies in the Supreme Court destroyed them.
Cant be too careful around evil authoritarians
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Of course, if technology makes carrying a baby inside a woman obsolete, then who knows what happens.
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He went to Lehigh. Can’t like him.
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She isn’t Trump. That’s all the MSM needed.
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I’m rosier on my election predictions that most. I hope they are wrong.
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“Moral Upstanding” is back.
Maybe when Polievre wins in Canada his parents will send him to remedial English class.
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“Georgia is not posting live data on election day. They did it for early voting. Sounds sus”
Sane Voter,
What data are you looking for? My understanding is that GA will report most early voting results as soon as polls close at 7pm. It’s a great change from ’20 and we should know quickly what kind of night it will be based on these initial GA results.
Big Joe
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ant be too careful around evil authoritarians”
Really.
Like the people trying to censor social media?
Mandate electric cars?
Force everyone to pay union dues?
Mandatory gun buybacks?
Yeah, I think “Moral Upstanding” is right, we don’t want authoritarians in power.
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t is not inconceivable that abortion will be made to be very hard to get at some point in the future”
I doubt it.
In my view, the sides should come together and decide on a 15-20 week window and illegal to abort viable fetuses unless to save the life of mother.
But it won’t happen because many conservatives believe in “life at conception” and most liberals are ok with aborting a perfectly viable 8 month fetus.
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Big Joe,
GA posted continuous live updates of vote totals during early voting. Why is election day any different? Florida does it for both. It relates to the transparency of the process.
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to keep everyone up to date, can someone post the florida link here, and any other state that updates
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No matter the talk over the election about being kind to everyone, this is how Dems, and especially the Harris campaign and supporters, really feel about Americans.
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God you’re such a fucking idiot Jason. You need to grow the fuck up and stop being a meddlesome cunt. Just so irritating.
Are you autistic? I mean damn!
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FL sites
https://www.freshtake.vote/2024G/ seems to be the most up to date
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ a little behind in posting numbers but great visuals and data
https://flvoicenews.com/florida-ge-live/#google_vignette DW posted this one and it is really good as well
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…”Just spoke to a Democrat friend on the ground in a swing state…..and nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point…..”
Councilwoman Vickie Paladino
https://x.com/VickieforNYC/status/1853511569851982213
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Sure Jan. I spoke to my aunt Norma in Hell, Michigan and they told me Trump wins.
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Sane Voter,
Do you have a link ? Thanks
Big Joe
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Update from partial hack Mark Halperin….”it’s very hard for me to see how she’s (Harris) going to win Pennslyvania…”
https://x.com/2waytvapp/status/1853816041865891854
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I posted the FL links just above
The GA SOS data hub link is here, but it says it will not be updated during election day.
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
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Thanks for the GA links, Sane Voter. Looks like it’s a daily tally of early vote turnout. Nothing sus here. Georgia’s reporting will set the tone for the entire night shortly after 7pm.
Big Joe.
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No, the GA tallies were live every day for every county.
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Yes, for early voting.. which is not the same as election day voting. FL is unique (and great btw) at how it reports during election day. That doesnt mean every other state is sus. GA has done a great job of improving its reporting.
Big Joe
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Has Ralston emerged from his dark room yet today?
Chicon
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####################
PROGRAMMING NOTE!!
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Tonight new threads will automatically post at 7:00, 7:30, 8:00, 8:30, 9:00, 10:00, 11:00 and Midnight, with the thread subject line listing the states that have closed their polls at that time.
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I saw that Baris is doing a live show tonight. Who else is doing a show? How are all of you following events tonight?
Chicon
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Minnesota in play?
Twin Cities weather forecast:
Rain, mainly before 5pm. Temperature falling to around 41 by 3pm. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
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Election2024 Updates
@MadAboutSkin01
Rural surge continues..
Not just NH showing up but also rurals in Nevada
🔴 Deep red Lyon County seeing long lines at most voting sites and party split reported as being 70:30 Republican❗
🔴Nye and Douglas also seeing so many voters they could hit 85-90% overall turnout!
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Patrick Ruffini
@PatrickRuffini
·
12m
Republicans are strong out of the gate in Florida.
The average county is on the margin 8 points more Republican in the Election Day vote than the modeled calculations of what they had left in the tank.
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Now we start to enter the mid-day (R) doubting phase. Nevada declining on betting markets based on vibes? Nothing but unverifiable anecdotal comments on X (other than real time FL numbers, which remain strong).
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and AZ numbers which remain strong.
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The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru
@Garrett_Archer
.
@maricopacounty
election day update 9:26am.
Voted: 64,602
REP: 42%OTHER: 38%DEM: 20%
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seriously though, any Nevada news to justify the betting market falling off a cliff?
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GOP lead in Duval county (Jacksonville, FL) has now grown to 3.0 percentage points. Remember that Georgia always votes just a little to the right of this FL county.
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BREAKING: Final election results in Guam.
2020:
🔵Biden 55.38% (+13)
🔴Trump 41.91%
2024 (72 of 72 precincts reporting)
🔵Harris 49.46 (+3)
🔴Trump 46.22%
A shift of 10% to Trump across America would result in a clear Trump victory.
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I will be flipping from Fox, MSNBC, and CNN (best map guy) as well as local stations.
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FINAL Guam results
🔵 Harris: 49.5% (+3.3)
🔴 Trump: 46.2%
2020: Biden+13.5
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Any info yet about turnout in the bad part of Philly?
Chicon
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Ralstonhack:
“Not confident in my prediction”
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Harris: 49.5% (+3.3)
Trump: 46.2%”
They don’t vote for President GE, only primaries.
Is that a local election?
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Hi Folks,
Comments on Polymarket suggest that a “Lib whale” bet on Kamala.
https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-presidential-election-winner?tid=1730826136859
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Any info yet about turnout in the bad part of Philly?”
You mean Bad Philly?
Bitter wouldn’t know.
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jason,
The Guam results show a presidential straw poll today.
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b00mtaPP,
Does it really matter in NV? If we get to the point where it comes down to NV it is already over. Assuming history repeats itself there will be enough pre filled ballots delivered until the Dem wins by a vote 🙂
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This would be a surprise:
“Amendment 4, restoring abortion rights in Florida by striking down the 6-week ban, appears to be in serious trouble. One reason is the failure of Miami Dade Democrats to turn out and vote. Republicans have a 31,000 vote advantage over Democrats heading into Election Day”
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Does it really matter in NV?”
It could if for example Trump loses the blue wall but wins NH or NM.
Unlikely? Yes.
Impossible? No.
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presidential straw poll today.”
Ok, but that is not a real election.
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Clark is currently about R+0 E-day, when the final was R+1 and R+14 in 2020 and 2022. But the rest of Nevada was much more R friendly on E-day and accounted for about 90% of the E-day R-margin in 2020 and 55% of the R-margin in 2022.
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S&P’s up 1% today (to 5,770). Whoever wins this election will inherit a strong market which is in a techinical uptrend to 6,000. Seems the Fed is in the final stages of engineering the soft landing.
Big Joe
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Hope he is right
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
The cavalry has arrived. Men are voting in record numbers. They now realize everything is at stake.
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jason,
The Presidential preference question was on the official ballot today in Guam, but clearly doesn’t really matter in terms of electoral votes. It’s just a general indicator of the mood over there.
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I hear some semi-illiterate moron from his parent’s basement in Canada has predicted Harris will win.
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538 updated their prediction
Harris 50 Trump 49
They don’t say who will win the 1% chance.
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was not that what it was last night? 50.50 – 49.50
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Pysops works both ways
https://x.com/pamadkisson/status/1853803866615136733/photo/1
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was not that what it was last night? 50.50 – 49.50?
Last I looked it was 51-49 Trump
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Harris wins. Rethugs cry their hearts out. Trump the Nazi will probably be a fossil in 2028.
Wait, will they run a fossilized Trump? I mean….
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Ask Jason. He claims to know more about Philadelphia than I do. I’m only here working 5 days a week and go there for concerts, museums, restaurants and/or sporting events on weekends. I have lived and worked in Philadelphia or its near suburbs since I started law school in 1990. I live 7 miles from the western boundary of Philadelphia. I ran for Congress in Philadelphia in 2002. But ask him.
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Jason. That was the rounding up. Last night about 3am he put out his “final” and it showed Trump up in enough states to win and the numbers I showed Above
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FL current e-day is R+20.1. Overall it is R+11.31, up from 10.1 at the start of the day.
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The more Bitter claims he know about Philadelphia the more he proves how little he knows.
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here is where you can track election day returns in Clark County, NV. The reason Trump tanked in NV betting markets is the Dems took a slim lead in election day voting there.
https://x.com/JohnRSamuelsen
GOP was expected to narrowly win election day vote, even in Clark County. But of course if the rurals remain strong, and there is no evidence they are not, then Trump can overcome a narrow election day loss in Clark County and still win the state.
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DW,
Doesn’t seem like much of percentage lead for the Dems in Clark County.
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Nate Silverhack
we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases>
Note all these hacks have the same playbook.
None of them can bring themselves to show a Trump win so they all show him losing by 0.3% like Ralstonhack or Kamala winning by, you got it .015% by Silverhack
Partisan clowns are all alike.
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When are the betting markets going to be roiled by “Exit” rumors. Should happen soon.
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Councilwoman Vickie Paladino
@VickieforNYC
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here’s what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he’s being straight with me. Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it’s not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real. Of all the swing states, they’re hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don’t think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they’ve even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out. The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn’t capture it. Yes it’s possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely. The campaign has switched entirely to ‘woman vs. man’ messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point. Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn’t a total embarrassment for Democrats. Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
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What are exit rumors?
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I don’t trust any hearsay from actual politicians.
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I hope he’s seeing some private numbers.
Musk: Good chance NH goes red
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Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
Maricopa starts off more Republican (typically) and gets more Democratic throughout the day, then Republicans get a little late bounce.
But B/C Republicans voted early so heavily, this election is different. Same goes for Nevada. Democrats are expected to outvote Republicans in Clark.
The question: how much?
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Trump dropped some on Predictit but holding steady on main betting markets.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
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Of all the swing states, they’re hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them”
Well, that is not that encouraging unless WI is a lock.
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https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1853859061110083810?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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I am sure Musk spent some money so he has some numbers to base his opinions on.
Unless he is doing psyops too and trying to get Dems to give up.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
4m
🚨 MARICOPA, AZ UPDATE
R+22
🔴 REP: 37.6K
🟡 OTH: 34.4K
🔵 DEM: 18.1K
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“The confidence gap remains,” says
@MarkHalperin
of the moods of the opposing camps at Mar a Lago and in Wilmington. “Republicans I talked to are sending me their Electoral College guesses. They’re all above 270, some as high as 320 or 322. I don’t have a single Democrat emailing me an Electoral College map. They say they think they’re going to win, but they’re not as confident.” Trump #HarrisWalz
@2waytvapp
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What are exit rumors?”
Networks do exit polls and the first wave usually comes in about 2 pm, the last is at 5pm.
Inevitably, they get leaked, but you never know whether the leaks are true or not.
And IF they are true, they could still be really wrong like 2004 and 2016.
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Everything is psyops including the exit poles. Rs won’t talk, just like they won’t answer calls from pollsters
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So, disregard the exits.
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But exit polls are very expensive so not sure how much is being invested in them.
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Halperinhack has both sides covered.
He talked to people on both sides, both sides said they are winning.
Whatever the result Halperinhack will be on the “right” side.
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Joy Reid claims Nicola Maduro is “far right”.
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not sure why the panic in Nevada, the R/D gap has stabilized, with Ds gaining only 558 in Clark County, still nowhere near enough to erase their deficit, even with the mail in ballots still trickling in.
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Florida keeps steaming along too…GOP nearing 1.1 million advantage in cast ballots.
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Is this new?
REAKING: Jamie Raskin said, “Let folks cast their votes for Trump if that’s their choice. But mark my words, we won’t be certifying the election. He might win, but we’ll ensure he doesn’t step foot in the Oval Office.”
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I’ve been lurking since law school in 2006 and am now an attorney turned police officer in a charming Southern coastal city. So glad I found the lifeboat!
I think Trump will win 312 to 226 (battleground sweep). For the Senate, GOP flips WV, MT, OH, and PA. Of MI and WI, I think we take WI.
For the House, I think GOP will retain the majority by 8-10.
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Welcome Esquire.
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Was it hard to find the lifeboat?
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Breaking News – Democrats and Republicans accuse the other side of cheating at the polls.
Walt said he hasn’t seen an Election this bitter since Adams-Jefferson in 1800.
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BREAKING: Jamie Raskin said, “Let folks cast their votes for Trump if that’s their choice. But mark my words, we won’t be certifying the election. He might win, but we’ll ensure he doesn’t step foot in the Oval Office.”
Good luck with that one. We have the SCOTUS. And besides the SCOTUS, such an effort would result in a civil war.
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I think that is old.
The last I heard from Raskin was that if Trump won fair and square he would be certified.
Besides Raskin doesn’t speak for all Democrats.
Dems from red states might not have the same opinion.
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Ok he repeated that. The tweet I found was from harmeet dhillon (dhillon law).
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Washoe 10 AM update
🔴 R: 3106
🔵 D: 2331
🟡 I: 2408
More than offsets the modest D gains in Clark
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Counting those chickens huh…
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Killed any black kids lately?
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Trump still favored at Polymarket for NV but its 51-49. Might go up with the Washoe numbers.
Trump had a 9k advantage in Washoe, but Ralstonhack expected it to disappear today. Looks like it won’t.
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Killed any black kids lately?”
It’s hard to get banned here, but don’t push your luck.
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I hope Paul survived the night, was in bad shape last night.
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Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
There’s Washoe. Don’t lose sight of how important that county is. Republicans outvoting DEMs so far on ED, and had the EV lead.
·
2,842 Views
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Also, any update on Nv rural counties. Douglas, Lyon, and story are close to urban counties, as examples, There is also other rural counties.
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And so the question in Nevada is, did the GOP burn through all their votes already in the rural counties?
Answer:
Lyon:
🔴 R: 694
🔵 D: 153
🟡 I: 344
Douglas County
🔴 R: 576
🔵 D: 150
🟡 I: 246
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oh wow, I posted before seeing Tina’s question.
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BREAKING: Florida Republicans expand lead to 1.1 MILLION VOTERS today.
🔴 REP: 4,205,170 [+1,103,229]
🔵 DEM: 3,101,941
🟡 NPA: 2,138,136
🟠 OTH: 243,195
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Thank, Dw. Also, those are 2 of the 3 closest counties to urban. There are other rural counties.
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Rs we’re doing well in the ev in washoe, and are doing well today so far.
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Patri0tsareinContr0l
@Patri0tContr0l
Arizona SoS Adrian Fontes is asked why it takes 10-13 days to deliver Maricopa County’s Election results. He says it takes time to make sure mail-in ballots are “pulled out of the envelope properly” for tabulation and that 200 ballots takes ONE HOUR to count These people are either totally incompetent or straight up crooks. And I think you know which.
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It was tragic that the Dem AZ attorney general won by like 270 votes.
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Ralstonhack thinks most of the “rural indies” vote R.
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NH Journal:
In Republican Londonderry at 11am, there was a one hour line of traffic to get to polling place, then a 90 minute line to vote.
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That is what Baris said, Jason.
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Any reports anywhere regarding Black voter turnout in the larger cities (Atlanta, Philly, Detroit)?
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Speaker Johnson: I’ve done campaign events in over 260 cities across over 40 states… There are people who are coming to the events that have never been there before… This is going to be a big one. We are going to make history.”
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NV statewide update:
JUST IN: Nevada Secretary of State Election Day update [GOP entered day with 40K lead]
🔴 REP: 20,905
🟡 OTH: 19,154
🔵 DEM: 16,799
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Yes, fat fani called the threat in. /s
gringsam
·
Follow
Several polling places in Fulton County received threats and had to be temporarily closed. County election officials are seeking a court order on keep those sites open a little later.
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So if this holds in Nevada, all dems will have to hope for at the end of the day is the theory that they grab huge percentage of the indy vote.
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Trump back to 55-47 Polymarket NV.
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DW, that and three more days of mail trickling in…
Chicon
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County election officials are seeking a court order on keep those sites open a little later”
That playbook is so old…
Famous in St. Louis.
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DW, that and three more days of mail trickling in”
Chicon, don’t know if you saw what I posted on Sunday.
Ralstonhack on Sunday said “Dems essentially still have a week”
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Jason, I saw he said that, but my recollection is the mail has three days from today to arrive.
Chicon
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Ralston is a hack but you’re in your mom’s basement posting on an antiquated WordPress blog.
What is a dimwitted Jason?
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The tears here tonight will be glorious
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yet you are here, whining and complaining, on this antiquated word press blog.
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I think it is a sad reflection on HHR that the only troll we got today is a sad little illiterate Marxist turd from Canada blogging out of mommy’s basement.
It is a insult, frankly.
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ason, I saw he said that, but my recollection is the mail has three days from today to arrive”
Supposedly but then they have until Saturday to count it.
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cant we get a stop the cheat chant?
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York Co. PA….
https://x.com/FFT1776/status/1853784822587576561?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853784822587576561%7Ctwgr%5E540292f87de71d6edc85a5be3e48029c560c761a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fbobhoge%2F2024%2F11%2F05%2Fvoting-hours-extended-in-crucial-swing-state-amid-software-issue-n2181587
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Cambria Co. hours extended until 10PM
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
1m
🚨 JUST IN: Nevada Republicans have now expanded on their lead WITH mail and Election Day voting
GOP lead: +47,171
🔴 REP: 433,339 (37.8%)
🔵 DEM: 386,168 (33.7%)
⚪️ OTH: 320,389 (28%)
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Yet here you are posting inane conspiracy theories on an antiquated WordPress blog.
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Mommy’s basement is so trite.
Classic symptom of a schizophrenic mental nutcase.
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Mommy’s basement is so trite.
Classic symptom of a schizophrenic mental nutcase.
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So go back to DKos, it is more modern and they think “rethug” is cool and mature.
Frankly, you are the saddest excuse for an election day troll in our history here.
You obviously were not at the top of top of the troll gene pool, they had to suck you off the bottom.
So just go back to whatever little communist cesspool you came from.
And guess what, if Kamala wins, your life will still suck.
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Mommy’s basement is so trite.”
Are you going to tell your mommy you spent election day posting trash at a site where everyone understands you are lowlife POS who thinks “rethugs” is clever?
I am sure she will be SO proud….
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2 p central update: cautiously optimistic but still have PTSD from prior elections. Waiting for Polaris to calm my nerves…
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30,000 ft view…ill never forget that
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Pictures from rural Pa….unbelievable….the long line of cars and from what I gather parking no longer exists…
https://x.com/FFT1776/status/1853784822587576561
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”30,000 ft view…ill never forget that”
He got up to 30,000 feet, but never landed. Robbie must have been the pilot.
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The dynamics in each state are obviously different but the fact there are no negative “surprises” in the data we are seeing from FL, NV, and AZ is encouraging.
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Pictures from Arizona on Trump buses taking people to polling stations….
https://x.com/KariLake/status/1853860098155876512
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“Polling place in Northville, Michigan evacuated due to gas leak.” I guess Gretchen Whitmer’s flatus has acted up again.
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NT
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In Florida, the number of Registered Republicans is:
5,455,480
Dems:
4,400,561
A difference of about 1,054,000.
Right now in Florida, GOP ballots:
4,290,041
Dem ballots:
3,158,411
A difference of 1,131,630
A gap larger than the party ID gap, meaning DEMS are simply not turning out as much as Rs. The larger the gap continues to grow, the more it has to be true that Ds have a turnout problem.
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No way this should be legal.
Nevada:
November 9 | The deadline for county election officials to accept mail ballots postmarked on or before Election Day.
November 12 | The deadline for voters to cure their ballots.
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And of course the Nevada SC voided the “postmarked” rule too.
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What happened to Polaris?
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