MICHIGAN poll
🔴 Trump 50% (+1)
🔵 Harris 49%
Last poll: Harris +1
Patriot Polling | 10/24-26 | N=796RV
WISCONSIN poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 47%
USA Today/Suffolk | 10/20-23 | N=500LV
NEW HAMPSHIRE poll
🔴 Trump. 50.2% (+0.4)
🔵 Harris: 49.8%
NH Journal | 10/24-26 | N=622RV
TEXAS poll
🔴 Trump: 52% (+10)
🔵 Harris: 42%
NYT/Siena | 10/23-26 | N=1,180LV
PENNSYLVANIA poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 47%
🔴 McCormick: 47% (=)
🔵 Casey: 47%
InsiderAdvantage | 10/26-27 | N=800LV
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
62 responses to “Monday Morning Polls”
We have to wait and see how the poles look a few days post Muh comedian from the MSG Rally.
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first
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I know the NH poll is eye-candy, but the one I am focused on is the Suffolk poll of Wisconsin. If SUFFOLK says Trump has the lead there, that is something.
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Yup regarding Wi, scooter, Also,2nd item perhaps is the Tx margin reverting back to a 2016 margin vs 2020.
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whoops, my #3 was in response to Dw, not scooter.
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jaaon I don’t recall the number but wasn’t it something like an 800,000 Dem lead in 2020 that the GOP got down to 80,000 on election day?”
Yep. And Trump had a 700k lead on election night, and they kept counting VBM until it ended up +80k for Biden.
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General election poll – Michigan
🔴 Trump 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris 47%
Senate
🔴 Rogers 48%
🔵 Slotkin 48%
Insider advantage #B – 800 LV – 10/27
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Evidently the PR joke was not even racist, the context was PR’s trash problem…
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2024/10/28/heres-another-liberal-media-lie-that-got-blown-up-during-trumps-epic-msg-rally-n2646862?utm_medium=widget&utm_source=slider
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St. Pete polls out with a Trump 50, Harris 45 poll of Florida, apparently being completely unaware of the fact that GOP ballots are outpacing Dems by 11 points. I guess they expect the unaffiliated vote to go 90/10 for Harris
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Fwiw, a Fl Activote pole has trump leading by 12.
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Betting Markets are pretty much all on the same page
RCP Average 61.3/37.3
BetOnline 62/36
Betsson 60/40
Bovada 63/36
Bwin 60/40
Points Bet 60/40
Polymarket 63/32
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ActiVote is junk, but at least they are smart enough to look at the early vote returns by Party ID:
FLORIDA poll
President:
🔴 Trump: 56% (+12)
🔵 Harris: 44%
Senate:
🔴 Scott: 55% (+10)
🔵 Powell: 45%
ActiVote | 10/11-27 | N=400LV
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Trump will neither win Florida by 12% nor will he only win by 5%.
st Pete saying it’s 5% means more like 7-8%
btw you can thank DeSantis for turning Florida into a sea of Red
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I initially had Florida 6-8 points. Now I can see 9-10 points
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Not just DeSantis, also the FL legislature and R’s fleeing blue states.
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I think the Florida r registrations are significant. A deficit in 2016/2020 vs the 1 million plus advantage now.
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Yahoo Headline:
How Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary could mean Kamala Harris is winning the presidential election”
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I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump wins FL by 10.
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CNN online is now trying to charge for you to read their BS stories.
Good luck with that.
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Sure fire way to ensure nobody reads them.
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Drudge Report Headlines:
NIGHT OF A THOUSAND MAGAS
FELON AND HIS FLOCK
TUCKER DESCENDS INTO MANIA
SEE ELON ROAR!
SPEAKER CALLS HARRIS ‘ANTI-CHRIST’
SPECTACLE OF HATE
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This didn’t age well…this clown in Florida predicted last week that by Monday Dems would have the lead in Florida early voting. Its GOP+11 and growing.
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just in case you needed more good news out of PA, here it is:
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
1m
🚨 BREAKING: LAST-MINUTE PENNSYLVANIA GOP SURGE in voter registration for the last week.
🔴 REP: +36,507
🔵 DEM: +19,744
Per
@UPTGOP
, these are backlogged registrations.
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Nevada:
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
3m
According to Jon Ralston, the influx of mail so far is doing absolutely nothing for Democrats.
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Mika breakdown:
“I think a lot of people are seeing that rally at Madison Square Garden. Seeing all those people doesn’t mean he is gonna win the race.” “But my point is, it’s discouraging that so many people would gather and rally to hate to hate speech in America.” “That it’s discouraging and it hurts that people who have family in Puerto Rico, who are Puerto Rican Americans, who are American citizens, are hearing hate like that. It, it’s discouraging. “It’s, oh my gosh, how did we get here? How did we get here? Well, of course, where a stadium of people come to hate. That’s a different country, a different time.”
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I was worried about it when there was no context. I didn’t know about the floating trash problem in Puerto Rico. Anyone with a brain realizes it was a joke about trash. Ill conceived and out of place, but still not a joke about the people.
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nice new accent. Is that now the reverend Harris preaching?
didn’t she just say, to someone who said Jesus is Lord, they were at the wrong rally
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RAS is teasing that his daily tracker has flipped back to Trump.
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I am receiving “voter guides” with “answers to issues”
Protecting Social Security and Medicare
Trump No
Kamala Yes
Attends Church
Kamala Yes
Trump No
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Rs need to stay focused and not get off target from muh comedian who was likely a plant.
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who is that from Jason
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According to Steve Kornacki, who is the only person I can stomach on MSNBC, Harris’ is now seen as 39% negatively…which probably comes full circle to where she was prior to Biden being toppled in his presidential re-election bid.
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seems like this is going much like her primary run. Starts with hope because of her being a woman of color and descends into a failed campaign when people find out she’s just not very good
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who is that from Jason”
Just says “voter guide”
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
7m
🚨 BREAKING: Arizona Republicans expand their early voting lead to nearly 100,000 votes
🔴 REP: 580,951 (+98,795)
🔵 DEM: 482,156
🟡 IND: 322,346
Data:@MichaelPruser
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Complete BS, should be investigated for mail fraud
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Let me see if I get this correct….
Madison Square Garden sold out (19,000) plus another 4-5,000 people on the floor and approx. another 70,000-80,000 outside not able to get in.
The Joe Rogan interview just topped ’34 million views in two day’ according to the website ChicagoConservative27
The RCP betting average now at 61.1-37.5 Trump
No wonder the liberals are absolutely freaking out this morning.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
BREAKING: Pennsylvania Republicans out-requested Democrats for mail-in ballots again.
🔴 REP: +47,844
🔵 DEM: +43,443
They also only trailed Democrats in returns by just 9,000 ballots:
🔵 DEM: +56,040
🔴 REP: +47,139
🟦 DEM firewall: 381,095 [+8,901 over the weekend]
Firewall growth is screeching to a near-halt lately…
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Great ad, too long for TV but deserves reposting
https://x.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1850290736027381767?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1850290736027381767%7Ctwgr%5Ed08cfe5c764d0792db96628633f9b0c66e9389d3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F680478%2F
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Of course non of these Rs will be voting on ED so it remains to be seen if this is a net gain.
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Reported by Breitbart:
”The Republican National Committee (RNC) on Monday sent a letter to Pennsylvania Secretary of Al Schmidt over reports of issues related to voting access in the state.
The RNC said it has received reports of administration issues in relation to voting. That includes claims of computers being down and polling sites inexplicably closing early or not accepting more voters. The RNC said these issues are “especially alarming” because Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) posted pictures on social media on October 26 of what appeared to be a seamless voting experience.”
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Updated forcasts, predictions and simulations…
The Hill….Trump 53%-47%
The Economist….Trump 54%-45%
538….Trump 54%-46%
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Does this look like the stance of the next president of the United States. 5 feet 4, with slumped shoulders and a drunk grin.
·
6,208 Views
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The #5 story over at The Hill is the old and dated ABC/IPSOS poll (October 18-22) that had Harris up 4 nationally.
I guess when the trend is overwhelmingly favoring Trump you grab and hold onto anything that gives you hope. Talk about cherry-picking…
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Janzam, did you notice the clenched fists.
Description….’a clenched fist often used to express anger’. Unlike Trump that was shot at Harris’ apparent anger is something else….like losing.
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Jan, no it doesn’t not to us, but it DOES to nearly half the country. Nearly half the country DOES NOT CARE about the fact that they didn’t have a say in who their candidate would be. They LOVE the fact that the federal government is their god, father, and husband, and where they are simply told who the best candidate is to be that the visual representative of that god, father and husband.
All they care about is woke, woke, woke, the destruction of traditional values, and their belief that nothing matters, death is what our culture should focus on, and we should turn as many of us as possible into freaks.
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James Madison was also 5’4”.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
2m
WHAT
Quote
Jejune the Destroyer
@of_lyon68642
·
8m
Baris: Kamala is taking money out of NC to pay for ads in Virginia.
Now before you get too excited, keep in mind that Virginia and North Carolina share one of the longest borders in the country, and in fact, ads that play in the Tidewater cities of southeastern Virginia are seen all throughout northeastern North Carolina, including Elizabeth City, NC.
So this could just be a rearranging of places to run ads that still reach the same demographics.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
47s
PENNSYLVANIA – Democratic mail-in lead
🔵 2020: D+1,100,488
🟡 TODAY: D+381,095
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People dont care whether or not Kamala was selected rather than elected.
People dont care if a comedian at the MSG event made a stupid joke.
People dont care about the Cheneys, Kellys, or the like.
Trump will be supported by people who want to stop the illegals, the constant wars and want to fix the economy.
Harris will be supported by people who live off the government, suffer from TDS or who want to be able to kill babies.
Everything in a nutshell.
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Note the hair on Kamala in that pic above. Looking like she just crawled out from under a desk.
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People dont care whether or not Kamala was selected rather than elected.
People dont care if a comedian at the MSG event made a stupid joke.
People dont care about the Cheneys, Kellys, or the like.
Trump will be supported by people who want to stop the illegals, the constant wars and want to fix the economy.
Harris will be supported by people who live off the government, suffer from TDS or who want to be able to kill babies.”
If this was true, Biden wouldn’t be President.
The MSM’s influence has been watered down by alternative media, no doubt.
But it is still powerful and influential among both the intelligentsia and the low info voters who get their news from network news and printed newspapers.
I would change that to “shouldn’t care”.
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Biden’s entire firewall in PA was 1.1 million. He “won” the state by 1.2% (or 80,000 votes)
Today is Dem +381,095
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GOP now at 45.08% in Florida, a new high. On Friday it got up to 45.07, but over the weekend slipped down to 44.95, but now going strong again. Dems in danger of flirting with only 1/3 of the returned ballots.
Republican 2,180,446 45.08%
Democrat 1,633,151 33.76%
No Party Affiliation 919,633 19.01%
Other 103,970 2.15%
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PENNSYLVANIA – Democratic mail-in lead
2020: D+1,100,488
TODAY: D+381,095
The important number here is of course what the NET difference is compared to 2020.
But there are 3 positives even if the net is zero at the moment.
Fewer Dem mail in ballots means there will probably be fewer Dem votes total. That is because a certain percentage of people who would have voted by mail will not show up on election day. Other engagements, laziness, weather, travel, illness could be some of the reasons.
More R mail in ballots means more R votes total. For the same reasons. Some of these R mail in voters would not have shown up on ED.
Finally, resources. There is a cost to both campaigns to keep spending on people who haven’t voted yet. Compared to 2020, the Dems will spend more money on such people and the Rs less.
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Democrats Scream In Fury After Spotting Child That Made It Out Of The Womb Alive”
Babylon Bee
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All that Jason, and the fact that both Rasmussen and Baris are polling black men at 28% for Trump. If that’s true and IF it’s true in PA, then its lights out for Harris.
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Harris has led in 0 of the last 17 polls of GEORGIA
Harris has led in 2 of the last 15 polls of PENNSYLVANIA
Harris has led in 2 of the last 29 polls of NORTH CAROLINA
Harris has led in 2 of the last 17 polls of ARIZONA (both Bloomberg)
Harris has led in 3 of the last 14 polls of NEVADA (two Bloomberg)
Harris has led in 5 of the last 18 polls of WISCONSIN
Harris has led in 7 of the last 20 polls of MICHIGAN
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Leftist moron gives advice on how to survive Trump’s “fascist” government.
Don’t tell me the MSM does not have influence.
https://x.com/amalaekpunobi/status/1850288731170939180?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1850288731170939180%7Ctwgr%5E7bd629a07fc0c5213ea359e5e652e28a16485d18%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpjmedia.com%2Fvodkapundit%2F2024%2F10%2F28%2Fhow-to-stage-an-intervention-on-70-million-people-all-at-once-n4933717
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All that Jason, and the fact that both Rasmussen and Baris are polling black men at 28% for Trump.”
Not going to happen.
I will take 20%, no more is needed.
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Just a programming note.
Deplorables are OUT.
Nazis are IN.
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NEW THREAD
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