Maryland poll according to The Hill/Emerson and NC according to SoCal Strategies
 | MARYLAND |
| Hogan | 40 |
| Alsobrooks | 54 |
 | NORTH CAROLINA |
| Trump | 49 |
| Harris | 46 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
109 responses to “Its all over for Hogan and Trump up 3 in NC”
Top A-hole
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Reposting this here.
https://pjmedia.com/scott-pinsker/2024/10/22/just-like-clockwork-second-prediction-made-on-oct-17-has-just-come-true-n4933543#google_vignette
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Trump at 34 talking about running for office.
https://x.com/ThrillaRilla369/status/1849059918139048278
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If Trump wins the Marxists will have a long list of “bogeymen” to blame.
Elon Musk (failed to curb “misinformation”
Mitch McConnell (failed to endorse Kamala)
Nikki Haley (ditto)
GWB (ditto)
Fox News (disinformation)
Rascism
Sexism
MSM (did not support Kamala/attack Trump enough)
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What you WON’T see blamed:
Kamala unpopular
Kamala an airhead
Kamala too far left
Walz a knucklehead
Agenda too extreme
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Breaking: Trump campaign to launch radio ads (r&b stations) in Philadelphia.
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Dem senate candidate in MO shoots reporter, claims it was a “great day on the range”.
Imagine if it was Hawley.
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Quemalas closing strategery:
“We don’t want her in front of the voters, but we want her to have the launch codes” is the worst sales pitch any presidential candidate has ever made in the waning days of the campaign.
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Dems think they have a chance in my district against Scott Perry. It would be unfortunate, but the fact is Perry is too far right for a district that the Dems watered down a few years ago and made more competitive by incorporating liberal areas of Harrisburg. He continues his firebrand style, hopefully he will prevail due to a strong Trump vote, but the Dems have fielded a well known local former TV anchor who pretends to be in favor of “securing the border and deporting illegals”.
Perry did beat a strong Dem candidate in 2022, Eugene DiPascuale, now running for AG, but that was a midterm election.
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The Atlantic hit piece on Trump already falling apart. The sister of the woman killed says Trump treated the family very well and she voted for Trump yesterday. Mark Meadows denies the story and a couple other do too.
But of course it doesn’t matter to the MSM.
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The hit piece didn’t help Kamala at Predictit
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
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I smell a lawsuit..
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Top A-hole
Second Class
Fixed it.
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Second class?
Sniff….
Can I get some points?
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First
Because I can !!!!
GFY !!!!
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Trump behind only 3.7 in Miami-Dade. Let that sink in.
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PredictIT now 61c for Trump and 43c for Harris
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Scooter trying to move up from A-hole Fourth Class.
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Trump has risen to 40% for a popular vote win at polymarket. He was barely cracking 20% last week.
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When you say your prayers at night, pray that these black women are representative of many like them:
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Ralston:
The early voting blog is updated!
Out: Clark D firewall
In: Rural R firewall.
It’s real: 16,500 votes because of massive landslides so far and higher than urban turnout percentage.
Dems need more mail, lots of indies, or big trouble in NV.
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They seem to be opposites of the wine chicks.
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Scooter, and for a while, NV was said to be the toughest get for Trump among the 7 battleground states.
But we do need some restraint here. I have been reading about some starting to compare this to 1980, or even 1984! Folks, that ain’t happening. This country’s divide is deep and strong on both sides.
I am trying to resist comparison to any prior election given the unusual nature of the race involving a former president against a weak sitting vice president.
But Dems will turn out in the end, because they always do. Their ticket could be Satan for President and the antichrist for vice-president, and their floor would still be 46% of the national popular vote.
Trump clearly has the edge, but any talk of a landslide is absurd. The best Trump can do is national popular vote +2, and probably 312 EVs. If it really goes hard toward Trump, maybe 346 EVs are possible but landslide talk is misguided. 1984 ain’t ever happening again.
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Trump won’t lose Dade County. He will carry it by at least a couple of points. Trump is headed for a 10 or 11 point landslide win in Florida……and there isn’t a damned thing Democrats can do about it.
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DW, no, 1984 absolutely won’t happen again. You are right. Given the demographics, however, a two point popular vote victory for Trump is about as solid a victory as Republicans could hope for. It’s pretty impressive given NY, California, Maryland, Massachusetts, Illinois etc. I feel Trump is absolutely headed for a national popular vote victory. My prediction for my home state of Texas is Trump plus 7 or 8. That’s a couple of points better than last cycle. Cruz wins by 4 or 5.
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I played with the EV map. I have Harris winning PA, Georgia and Michigan to get to 282. I hope I am wrong.
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You are.
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GOP closing in on taking the lead in Hillsborough county, and Miami-Dade down to 3.3 Dem lead. Compete wipeout for Ds here.
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Yes, complete wipeout. Big ramifications of a slaughter in Florida on the national popular vote. Huge state and Trump wins by ten or 11 and CBS thinks Kamala wins the national popular vote by three? Give me a break.
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Bitter, there was a post yesterday showing the pattern for many past elections how Georgia always votes just to the right of Duval county Florida, which is just across the border. Trump is going to take Duval county pretty easily. Of course its true that a pattern stays true until its made false by a new direction, but these Florida numbers have to give Trump team more confidence about Georgia.
Its been 13 polls since Harris had any lead in GA. Harris as led in only 2 of the last 26 polls of Georgia. Quinnipiac has Trump up 7 there.
Of course there could be fraud. I presume they have the plumbing in the building all set to fail at 11:00 pm election night, forcing them to stop counting ballots.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
🚨 BREAKING: Wisconsin Republican areas CRUSHED IT on day one of early voting.
🔴 Strong GOP counties: 34.7%
🔴 Lean GOP counties: 29.1%
🔵 Lean DEM counties: 11.4%
🔵 Strong DEM counties: 24.8%
That’s the relative share of the day’s vote. Republicans STORMED the polls.
–All well and good, but did the GOP go after and get low-propensity voters and bank them, or did they just cannibalize their election day vote. That’s what matters.
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There are too many idiots who poorly use statistics OR who statistics properly but do not clearly explain what they mean.
If 100% of GOP counties turned out 80% and 100% of DEM counties turned out 20% it would not mean the GOP is winning anything. We have MANY GOP counties in NC with total populations under 5k. Mecklenburg county alone has over 1 million people. Comparing counties means NOTHING. Having more turn out in very small GOP counties and less turnout in big DEM counties does not provide any useful info regarding the winner of a state’s electoral votes.
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And that is a comment regarding Eric’s original post rather than on our resident data guru, DW.
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Elon Musk in charge of reducing the size of Government and therefore cutting the deficit and RFK Jr addressing the corruption in the food industry has got me excited about the potential of a Trump administration.
But so does David Portnoy committing up to 4 million on NIL money a year for Michigan to always have a top QB.
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Bad move.
BREAKING: Kamala Harris declines podcast interview with Joe Rogan.
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Dems need more mail”
I think that is a message…
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OA,
The inference is that the heavily GOP or Dem counties are a decent way of detecting relative voter engagement of the bases. There is no reason to think the relative GOP and Dem voter turnout in a 50-50 county is much different than comparing the heavily GOP and Dem counties to each other.
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I played with the EV map. I have Harris winning PA, Georgia and Michigan to get to 282. I hope I am wrong.”
Yep, that is wrong.
If Rs flip AZ, GA, and PA they have 281.
Add MI and you get 296
If they flip WI and NV too you get to 312.
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oahodges, exactly. There has to be something measurable in the data that points to a specific outcome. That’s why early voting analysis is difficult business. Things early voting cannot tell us:
a) how people actually voted (stating the obvious)
b) how much of it is simply people voting earlier instead of later.
c) how many in each precinct/county/state will end up voting in the end.
It can give us an indication as to overall enthusiasm in certain situations. For instance, VA_03 is an urban (Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News, Hampton) congressional district comprised of 40% blacks. This district is dead last in Virginia early voting and way behind. This fact may indicate a lack of enthusiasm, but it cannot guarantee that these people won’t vote later.
100 voters who are over the top enthusiastic voting day 1 of early voting, going up against 100 voters who have to be dragged to the polls on election day by free cigarettes, a sandwich, and shot of whiskey, still results in a 50/50 tie.
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Terrorists armed with assault rifles and explosives launched an attack on the Turkish Aerospace Industries HQ near Ankara, resulting in multiple casualties and injuries. Reports suggest hostages may be held at the site, and some sources indicate a possible suicide bombing. Turkish special forces have been deployed to the area to manage the situation”
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Tina, interesting article by Scott Pinsker where he has already been spot on predictions about the race. I’ve also heard the same analysis by a couple of other people i.e. the liberal media turning on Harris. I remember Peggy Noonan (WSJ) writing back in 2008 that if Obama would started to lose or looked like losing the liberal media would have ‘destroyed’ him.
Fast forward to Harris’ interview with Hallie Jackson of NBC just recently. Some say Jackson grilled Harris and the joy is obviously deleted from a stern Harris.
This is just the beginning. I look for the same attack on Harris going forward from the liberal media (or most of them, at least).
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This article suggests that the Dem’s “silver bullet” (abortion) may be a dud.
The Dems have spent $124 million on pro-abortion ads. Bitter’s theory is why spend that much money if it doesn’t work, a valid argument.
We will see. But it wouldn’t be the first time a party spent a lot of money on the wrong issue.
https://pjmedia.com/athena-thorne/2024/10/22/another-democrat-election-firewall-fails-abortion-losing-its-magic-as-an-election-issue-n4933536
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“We will see. But it wouldn’t be the first time a party spent a lot of money on the wrong issue.”
“WRONG! We MUST act now to Free Silver or we will all be HUNG on a cross of GOLD!”
–William Jennings Bryan
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But I did not flip PA, Georgia and Michigan to Trump so 282 for Harris is correct in that scenario.
Jason is correct if Trump does win the states he listed.
There is no real fight here. We just disagree on who will win these states.
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If you are wondering why the LAT is not endorsing Kamala it is because the daughter of the owner is very pro-Hamas and doesn’t think Kamala is sufficiently anti-Israel.
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There is no real fight here. We just disagree on who will win these states”
Yeah, I misread your post.
I thought you said Trump would win those states.
And I am not saying Trump WILL win PA and MI.
I am saying he WILL win GA.
Taking bets.
How about a friendly wager. $100. If Harris wins GA I donate to your favorite charity. If Trump wins you send $100 to the York ASPCA dogs.
Deal?
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Now having said what I did about early voting above, of the two options in my 100 enthused versus 100 dragged to the polls, obviously one would rather be the party with the enthused, given that the early votes are locked in, and its harder work to drag people to the polls on election day, but it is work Dems have successfully done many times before.
So obviously what is going on in Florida is huge, particularly if it holds and the GOP lead continues to grow through the end of early voting. But what this does is define for Democrats what they would need to do on election day, presuming different outcomes of how independents voted. Probably there will be nothing they can do in Florida. Nevada looks good for a start, but its still going to be close, if the Dems have any election day path.
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Shhh.. don’t tell Bitter he could get 4 to 1 odds.
https://polymarket.com/event/georgia-presidential-election-winner?tid=1729698370287
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I also thought that Georgia might head in Harris’ way but since Trump and Kemp ‘buried the hatchet’ I’ve changed my mind and now say Trump will win this state.
However, the one state that sticks out in my mind is Pennslyvania. This is the state that Dr. Oz was suppose to win but didn’t and it seems that Trump is everywhere in that state like he know something.
Again, Pennslyvania is my main concern.
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With anyone with a stomach to watch Jon Ralston will be on MSNBC ‘in 10 minutes’. Get ready for his famous spin.
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“My gut says Trump will win” – Nate Silver
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4948792-nate-silver-donald-trump-2024-election-essay/
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“Democrats fear race may be slipping from Harris”
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4947840-democratic-fear-trump-battleground-polls/
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John, I agree on Pennsylvania. The state concerns me. I know that the GOP did great on new voter registrations, and so forth, but it concerns me that so many of the recent polls showing Trump ahead are Republican polling firms, or those that lean that way, like AtlasIntel. Still, it is comforting that even the Bullfinch group could not give Harris a lead in PA. And Redfield and Wilton also finds a tie. But the NY Times/Siena has Trump down, while at the same time they have Trump up in other states.
Trump has the edge in PA, but its a very narrow edge. Its fragile.
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Update prediction from The Economist…
Trump 56%
Harris 44%
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
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GOP early vote lead in FL has reached 6 points:
Republican 1,046,642 42.98%
Democrat 899,902 36.96%
No Party Affiliation 438,616 18.01%
Other 49,837 2.05%
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We will see more of those same stories, John.
Quemala took a day off yesterday and today to do interviews.
Trump would have done an interview, a podcast, and a rally the same day.
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This is the state that Dr. Oz was suppose to win but didn’t and it seems that Trump is everywhere in that state like he know something.”
Don’t read too much into Oz losing as a guide for 2024.
He only won the primary by 900 votes in a very contentious primary, and he and McCormick basically damaged each other, and there was never any real uniting. Kathy Barnette the deadender got 25% of the R vote and never endorsed Oz.
The MSM was very successful in painting him as a carpetbagger, snake oil salesman and puppy killer. I know a woman who didn’t vote for him because of the “dog killing” ad.
Fetterman would still have lost except for the 900k lead in mail in ballots banked before his disastrous debate.
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I should say 900k mail in ballots with Fetterman getting 80% of them.
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Trump with a 61/41 lead at PredictIT
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Get this, Walz has called Elon Musk a “dipshit”…and Trump’s running mate on stage, and of course, Dems think he’s “badass” for doing it. Says he “jumps around on stage like a dipshit”…LOL, you can’t make this up.
So the guy who bragged about none of his students getting into an Ivy league school, who bailed on his unit when they got deployed, who lies about being in Tiananmen Square calls the guy who brought us SpaceX, Tesla, etc etc a “dipshit”
There you have why the Dem party is where they are at. Success to them is failure if you don’t pay your homage to the State.
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Tim Walz didn’t disappoint the massive crowd (LOLOLOLOL) in Wisconsin, who came out to watch him cook. He might just Kill Musk’s Twitter.
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Quemala looked like she over celebrated her 60th birthday in the nbc interview. The sad part is those were easy questions or ones she should have expected.
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What concerns me most about PA is the mail in ballots with no chain of custody.
But I think the most positive thing for Trump is the following question:
“Can Kamala Harris match Joe Biden’s blue collar vote in PA”
Biden “won” by 80k votes.
Kamala is weaker with blue collar men, black men, and Hispanics than Biden. She is perhaps stronger with women.
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Being the third A-hole isn’t enough. With MD assuming A-hole Emeritus status, you are effectively Number 2 A-hole.
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This is why Oz lost.
Mehmet Oz
Republican
31.2%
419,999
951 ahead
Dave McCormick
Republican
31.1%
419,048
Kathy Barnette
Republican
24.7%
331,864″
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Not fair. Jason is a wine chick…ummm….dude.
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Number 2 A-hole”
I guess its better than 2 B-Hole.
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NATIONAL poll
🔴 Trump: 51% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 49%
Last poll: Harris+4
HarrisX/Forbes | 10/21-22 | N=1,244LV
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A-holes always strive for upward mobility.
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Damm, Harris can’t even win her own poll?
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So Bitter, we have a bet on GA right?
No chickening out now.
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Deal
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I listen to sports radio during the day while working. Harris is running ads targeting black men with all of the great tax breaks and job creation she will provide. Trump’s ad has a black podcast discussing sex change operations for prisoners and males competing in girls sports. We’ll see.
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Recent polling numbers suggest a +300 EV and with the numbers in Florida and Texas potentially a popular vote win for Trump.
Do I think the Woke Commie Dems would steal this election in plain sight even though it would be obvious to everyone they did…YES. Of course with propaganda media running cover.
Plan A, B, C, D, E, and F has not done their way. Time for desperation.
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Elections with using computers and no chain of custody will destroy this country.
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*gone
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Bitterlaw
October 23, 2024 at 12:26 pm
Deal”
York ASPCA dogs salivating already.
I hope you kept the link from last time you contributed.
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I have never lost a money bet here, don’t plan on starting now.
My crowning achievement was winning a $1000 bet with the Biden Troll, who gave me 100 to one odds on Trump vs. Hillary. If Hillary won, I would have lost $10.
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$100. Deal.
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Anybody watch Dem hack Ralston on MSNBC?
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Anybody with the stomach for i give us a report.
Tks
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BREAKING: Nate Silver predicts that Donald Trump will win the 2024 election.
“My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.”
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BATTLEGROUND poll (PA/GA/NC/MI/AZ/WI/NV)
🔴 Trump: 54% (+8)
🔵 Harris: 46%
HarrisX/Forbes | 10/21-22 | N=322LV
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BOOM !!!!
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Small sample size though !!!
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And there it is. Harris closes with her best argument. Trump is Hitler. This guy Kelly has proven it!
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Yes, trump is Hitler, but Kelly never made that specific allegation.
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JUST IN – US presidential candidate Kamala Harris will deliver remarks from her residence at 1:00 p.m. ET, her office says.
Maybe she’s dropping out and installing Joe.
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(John Karl would have noted that in his book. )
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Veteran pollster Nate Silver said his “gut” right now is that former President Trump will win the election in less than two weeks, but he cautioned against putting faith in anyone’s gut feeling. “
Pollster?
Can anyone think of a poll Silverhack ever conducted?
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The HarrisX pollster said that Harris is winning Indys nationally, but Trump is winning them in battleground states. I am not a fan of battleground polls, especially as a small subset of a national poll.
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but Kelly never made that specific allegation.”
Kelly is on tape saying Trump can clearly be classified as a fascist.
These people are truly unhinged.
I think now they just want to “poison the well” for Trump as much as possible.
Everything he tries to accomplish will be termed “fascism” by the Dems and the MSM.
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Miami-Dade down to 2.8 lead for Dem ballots.
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James Carville said today that he is certain Harris will win. Ole snakehead is wishcasting
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That press conference reeks of desperation. She knows she’s losing !!!
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yeah, and in 2010 Pelosi said Dems would pick up seats the day before they lost 66. Its what hacks always say.
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The Harris poll puts Kamala’s lead at +0.7 at RCP.
If that is the case she will lose the EC.
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And really this is nothing new. They might not have used the word Hitler, but they disparaged Reagan the same way, “dangerous with the nukes and will blow up the world!” This is standard Dem playbook stuff and has been for a long time.
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Miami-Dade down to 2.6. Every refresh, the GOP gains a bit more across the state.
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”A proposed personnel roster circulating within Donald Trump’s campaign and transition operation lists Aileen Cannon, the federal judge who threw out Trump’s classified documents case, as a possible candidate for attorney general, multiple sources familiar with the matter have told ABC News.
Cannon’s name appears on a document reviewed by ABC News titled “Transition Planning: Legal Principals,” which lists potential staffing for the White House counsel’s office, the Department of Justice, the FBI, and U.S. attorneys’ offices, as well as proposed candidates for the top legal positions within multiple government agencies, should Trump be reelected.”
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I doubt Cannon is really being considered, she is relatively low level and inexperienced. Trump needs a heavyweight as AG.
“Multiple sources”
Zzzzz…..
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AG is going to be a tremendously important position in a Trump administration, it is the one area he can’t afford to make another mistake like Sessions.
Also, he should have Kevin McCarthy as Chief of Staff, someone who can navigate well through chaos.
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Put John Ratcliff as head of the FBI. Grenell SOS. DeVos again for Education. Bobby Jindal for HHS. Burgum Energy.
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New Thread
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I think a Cannon consideration for AG is possible, however, for multiple reasons, “consideration” is as far as it will go.
In the meantime, illegal border crossers are anxious to get across the border before a possible Trump win.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13989363/mexico-migrant-caravan-election-todd-bensman.html
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Also, no lawyer for Fib director. We need a street cop.
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Good afternoon!
We need a lot of information declassified on Day 1. FBI, CIA, DHS, IRS, FDA, NIH etc etc records from last 30 years should be opened up, similar to Musk doing the #TwitterFiles drop. The country can handle it, as it will most likely show how corrupt our representatives/federal workers have become. Odds are some Republicans will be tarnished, but many more Democrats will be ensnared.
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“Also, no lawyer for Fib director. We need a street cop.”
-Agreed
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