Rust belt vs. Sun Belt
Swing States poll by Redfield and Wilton N=8,553; 10/16-10/18
Florida – 🔴 Trump 49-45%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 49-46%
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 48-45%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 48-47%
Nevada – 🔴 Trump 47-46%
Pennsylvania – 🟡 Tie 48-48%
Michigan – 🟡 Tie 47-47%
Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris 47-46%
——
SENATE
Wisconsin – 🔵 Baldwin 45-44%
Nevada – 🔵 Rosen 48-41%
Arizona – 🔵 Gallego 48-41%
Michigan – 🔵 Slotkin 45-38%
Florida – 🔴 Scott 45-42%
——
NC Governor – 🔵 Stein 45-37%
——
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
113 responses to “Redfield and Wilton sees reverse of AtlasIntel”
1st
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Redfield and Wilton had been polling New Mexico right along, with Trump closing to 4 in their last poll, but in this new polling, they dropped the state. I wonder why that would be?
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The Cato Institute recently completed a white paper grading the fiscal policies of governors in all 50 states. What they primarily found was:
”All the governors receiving an A on this year’s report are Republicans, and all the governors receiving an F are Democrats. Republican governors tend to focus more on tax cuts and spending restraint than do Democrats.”
Kim Reynolds of Iowa received the highest grade (A), while, Tim Walz of Minnesota was dead last, receiving the lowest grade (F).
https://www.cato.org/white-paper/fiscal-policy-report-card-americas-governors-2024
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The MI senate race doesn’t seem believable.
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“Tim Walz of Minnesota was dead last, receiving the lowest grade (F)”
Exactly what qualified him to be #2 on the Dem ticket!
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NEW 2024 PENNSYLVANIA GENERAL ELECTION POLL: QUANTUS INSIGHTS 🚨
🔴 Trump: 50.3%
🔵 Harris: 48.2%
🟡 Other: 1.5%
——
Who do you think most of your friends or neighbors will vote for?
🔴 Trump: 52%
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟡 Not sure: 2%
840 Likely Voters | October 17-20, 2024
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PENNSYLVANIA poll
🔴 Trump: 50.3% (+2.1)
🔵 Harris: 48.2%
🟡 Other: 1.5%
@QuantusInsights
| 10/17-20 | N=840LV
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SCOOTER! YOU GOT THE SCOOP ON DW!
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The MI senate race doesn’t seem believable.”
45-38 is missing a lot of voters this late in the game.
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17% undecided in MI race? No way. Not frisking the poll or saying Slotkin won’t win, I am saying that fifteen days before Election Day when early voting has begun, there are not nearly 1/5 if the voters who don’t know who they are voting for
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“SCOOTER! YOU GOT THE SCOOP ON DW!”
We deaf people have our contacts !!!
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Cook has downgraded Casey’s race to toss up.
With two weeks to go, two new Senate CPR Race Rating changes: PASEN: Lean D to Toss Up NESEN: Likely R to Lean R
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Florida’s Voice
@FLVoiceNews
·
12m NEW Florida in-person early voting update – 1PM
🔴 Republican: 97,473 (54.22%) [+25.8]
🔵 Democratic: 51,022 (28.38%)
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predictit. Trump 57cents
harris. 47 cent
polymarket. Trump 62.3
harris 37.5
538. Trump. 53 times out of a 100
harris 47
betting odds average. Trump 59
harris 39.8
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Thoe Redfield Wilton polls are very good for flipping GA and AZ and comforting for NC .
Also showing Robinson making somewhat of a comeback.
And horrible for Baldwin, 45% this late in the game is really bad for an incumbent.
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Quemala is campaigning with loon Cheney in Pa.
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So a conservative group gives A grades to Republicans and F grades to Democrats. Wow. Game changer.
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General election poll
🔴 Trump 50% (+3)
🔵 Harris 47%
Last poll – 🔴 Trump +2
Rasmussen #C – 3384 LV – 10/20
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CBS’s Caitlin Huey-Burns SEETHES over Trump workday at McDonald’s, calling it a “political stunt””
LOL
Did CBS actually think Trump is either trying to work or working at McDonalds?
Geezus.
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Predicit returning to pre-Kamala numbers…
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
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Fani’s boyfriend..
Q: Do you remember who your contact was at the White House counsel’s office?
WADE: I do not.
Q: Would it be you that would have reached out to the White House counsel’s office?
WADE: Possibly.
Q: So I was asking if he remembered whether you would have had a paralegal, someone that was on your team, or an assistant reach out to schedule this conf with White House counsel?
WADE: I don’t recall.
Q: Okay. Do you remember who attended this conf with White House counsel?
WADE: I don’t recall.
Q: Is it safe to assume, since you billed for the conf with White House counsel, that you attended this conf with White House counsel?
WADE: Yes.
Q: Okay. Do you remember if it was in person or by telephone?
WADE: I don’t recall.
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When you are that important, you forget if you were at the WH or not.
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Silverhack liked WAPO polls
Today’s Washington Post polls are Kamala Harris’ best state-level results in awhile. But other new releases show Donald Trump leading in most battleground states. What’s the result? Not much has changed in our forecast. Harris now leads by 1.6 pounts in our national polling average, and Trump has a 53 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
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has anyone looked through the wapo poll. Get this, she’s doing exceedingly better with LV than RV!!! I kid you not
when was the last time a Dem presidential candidate picked up voters instead of losing them when moving to the LV model
give me a break
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and did silverhack remember to mention that the Washington Post/George Mason University polling was started back in September?
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The GOP is right on the cusp of taking the outright lead in Florida early voting.
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https://x.com/NolteNC/status/1848405916774703412?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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PredictIT now Trump 58 Harris 46
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PredictIT now Trump 58 Harris 46
Is that Canadian PredictIt? Math is weird up there.
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its not how predictit works bitter, its what each candidate is selling for, not percentages that equal 100 or with rounding 101.
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And there it is, the GOP has taken the outright lead in Florida’s early voting. This state is not going to be close.
Republican 610,917 39.91%
Democrat 610,029 39.85%
No Party Affiliation 278,967 18.22%
Other 31,000 2.02%
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GOP ballots pulled a +11 today in MIAMI-DADE!
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DW, is that raw votes or % for Miami? Either is good, even drawing level with the Dems there is lights out for them.
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Thank you for the explanation.
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DW, is that raw votes or % for Miami?
PERCENTAGE, not raw vote:
11369 to 8605
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
21m
In 2022 – the red tsunami – it took Florida Republicans 3 DAYS to flip the total early vote.
In 2024, it took them LESS THAN 1 DAY to overcome the mail-in voting blue wall.
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and now the lead is growing:
Republican 624,033 40.06%
Democrat 618,477 39.71%
No Party Affiliation 283,542 18.20%
Other 31,557 2.03%
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Florida is not going to be a narrow Trump win. But yes, Kamala should open more offices there because some polls say its in play.
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Soundly defeating the Woke Commie Dems this election is only the beginning. Their demonic corrupt commie woke cult and ideology must be rejected by the voters over and over again going forward.
AND hopefully Trump won’t be some damn worried about being liked and clean house at the FBI & DOJ and every corrupt person in the administrative state as his Executive authority allows him.
If he punts on this we will be doomed.
The media is a mockery of journalism and their propaganda needs to be ignored. Alternative objective journalism and investigative journalists must continue to rise in credibility and put these minions out of business.
This new classic liberal GOP must be unified in defeating the enemies of this country and be clear as to the proper limited role of government and the full Constitutional rights of a free republic.
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I am expecting a >10 % margin in FL for both Scott. After 2022 I feel that should be the expectation.
In 2022, Rubio won by 16.4% and DeSantis by 19.4%
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Both Scott and Trump
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Elon Musk the Thomas Edison and Howard Hughes of our generation is so concerned about the demonic corrupt commie woke cult destroying our nation he is giving everything including risking his life to defeat it. That is historic.
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Trump has grown his coalition thanks to the help of several prominent black local leaders, RFK Jr., Elon Musk, and Tulsi.
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It looks like Trump is going to win way beyond the margin of fraud.
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I repeat Trump winning will not mean anything… if he doesn’t use his Executive authority to clean house in the Administrative state and address the federal deficit.
Both he failed in the first term.
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I will believe it when I see it.
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Not sure is this was posted.
Pennsylvania 2024 Senate Election Poll:
🔴Dave McCormick 47.2% {45.6%} [45.3%]
🔵Bob Casey 46.8% {47.4%} [46.4%]
Undecided 6.0% {7.0%} [8.3%]
Oct 17-19 {Sep 26-29} [Aug 28-30]
1,084 likely voters
Margin of error: +/-2.9%
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This is good !!!
https://x.com/apoctoz/status/1848422965773250961?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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JeffP – your posts are spot on, especially in who and what should be the focus of Trump’s 2nd term. DC needs both reform and a broad broom to clear out and realign the direction of government. Besides applying deregulation reform – getting rid of more red tape regulations than any new ones added – government bureaucracies should be either shrunk or eliminated entirely. There is also talk about moving some departments out of DC and placing them in other areas around the country.
Furthermore, IMO, Elon Musk has been more of an asset to Trump’s campaign than I expected. Normally his wheel house is innovation. But, Musk has thrown himself into defeating Harris, and is attracting more attention from both admirers and critics, becoming a target, only 2nd to Trump, in being vulnerable to both physical and fiscal harm.
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People listen to Musk. In particular young men under 40…LOL. His endorsement and involvement in the PAC he created and campaigning in PA is making a huge impact.
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every ten minutes when the page refreshes, the GOP lead in Florida grows:
Republican 651,876 – 40.36%
Democrat 637,398 – 39.46%
No Party Affiliation 293,261 – 18.16%
Other 32,715 – 2.03%
Expected Dem spin:
The No Party Affiliation voters will save us, and many of the early Republican voters are super energized “Dudes for Harris” voters who were too busy to change their party ID.
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18 days since the last Virginia Poll
11 days since the last New Hampshire Poll
37 days since the last Maine Poll
22 days since the last New York Poll
22 days since the last New Jersey Poll
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GOP in Florida just keeps growing the lead:
Republican 658,036 40.40%
Democrat 642,180 39.43%
No Party Affiliation 295,555 18.15%
Other 33,009 2.03%
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Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh
·
3m
Trump’s North Carolina crowd is MASSIVE.
All well and good, glad for the enthusiasm, but enthused or not, you still get only 1 vote.
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Apparently a new AP poll out there with a whopping sample that is D+9, Harris favorable +5 and Trump favorable -17.
Garbage in, Garbage out.
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Yikes and fat fani and Wade both testified that there were no meetings.
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Charlie Kirk: BIG ARIZONA DATA UPDATE:
Total ballots cast to date are way down from 2020, a bad sign for Democrats if Republicans can continue GOTV this week.
At this point in 2020, we were more than 10.6% behind the Dems statewide. Today we are 7.4% ahead — a net swing of R+18!
Republicans are crushing Democrats in early In-Person voting over 5:1.
Republicans are still ahead in Maricopa by about 15,000 votes. This is MASSIVE.
Here’s an even better sign: Historically, this has been the week that the GOP has closed ballot deficits with Dems in AZ. If this pattern holds, Republicans should increase their advantage.
Every County except Pima is doing better for Rs than 2020, and Pima is behind a few days. Yuma, Navajo, Apache, Mohave, Yavapai are crushing it in rurals compared to 2020.
Cochise, Maricopa, Pinal and Gila need to work harder, which we’re working on, but Dem energy in these counties is depressed from previous cycles.
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Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
3h
“New NV SOS numbers statewide:
Mail: D+15,000
In-person voting: R+13,000
So it’s close. All about the indies.
More on the blog later when I get time…”
Oh yeah, its gotta be rough for him to find the time to mention that DEMS are waaaay off their 2020 numbers and have essentially no firewall this time.
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For the first time in this election Trump has now taken the lead over Harris in The Hill’s election model…53-48%
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4943975-trump-harris-election-forecast-shift/
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Excuse me….52-48%
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If you want to see where the state of the race is then all you have to look at the #1 story over at the DailyKos. They say that since Bret Baier basically destroyed Harris in his interview a few days ago there has been ’16 Front Page diaries’ with Trump’s name in the headline.
And to stop this they invented “Kamala! Kamala! Kamala Harris! Kamala!”
I kid you not.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/21/2278329/-Kamala-Kamala-Kamala-Harris-Kamala?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
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Four days ??? That’s ridiculous !!!
Arnon Mishkin, head of the Fox News Decision Desk, says expect a delay of around four days for the presidential election results.
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I am seeing a lot of signs for Leila Hazou for US Senate.
So I looked her up. Seems like she can take some votes from Bob Casey.
https://www.leilaforsenate.com/news
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I am jason and I approve this message
“In a tight election Casey is not assured to win, third-party candidate Leila Hazou offers a far better alternative to the 64-year-old warmonger. Hazou, a Palestinian woman, says “she can no longer sit idly by and witness her country openly support the ongoing oppression funded by U.S. taxpayers. Campaigning with integrity, Hazou also remains consistent in her support and fight for abortion rights. Hazou stands for choice — including the choice to vote for a strong progressive woman who refuses to accept and vote for chauvinist hustler Casey who, instead of abusing women with anti-abortion hatred, now uses women for his own egotistical white male benefit.”
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She has more road signs out than Casey.
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Is this the New Mexico poll that was posted earlier?
New Mexico poll
🔵 Harris: 49% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 46%
🟡 Undecided: 3%
🟢 Other: 1%
2020: Biden+11
“Trump’s policies worked, we shouldn’t take a chance on more Biden-Harris policies”:
🔴 Agree: 49%
🔵 Disagree: 49%
KA Consulting (R) | 10/16-18 | N=612LV
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that NM poll is borderline BOOM worthy
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A new Ralston/Nevada update a few minutes ago….not much different but if you look at the numbers and based upon past performances this is not looking good for Democrats….could be that the Republicans have massively increased early voting but I don’t for sure….
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
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No early and mail in are nearly equal between r and d. Bad news for queMala
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Nv*
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Republicans are on the verge of leading the Nevada early and mail-in voting. At this point in 2020, Democrats led by over 15 points.
🔵 Democratic: 72,196
🔴 Republican: 69,377
🟡 Other: 46,427
Data from Ralston and TargetEarly
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And in the poles of Nevada I think trump was always up among indies (yellow bubble-other )
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DW, that NM poll might be a GOP internal, so not sure how excited we should get. However, it might explain why the Dems are now throwing money at the NM Senate race, if they think things are tightening.
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Oh yeah, its gotta be rough for him to find the time to mention that DEMS are waaaay off their 2020 numbers and have essentially no firewall this time.”
He won’t mention that. Rs could be ahead by 50k on election day and he will be talking about the Dem mail in ballots still to be counted.
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It was d plus 15 in 2020 vs pick em in 2024.
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https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/just-in-fani-willis-trump-case-was-planned-before-she-took-office-bombshell-testimony-reveals-mace/?utm_medium=agg&utm_source=economics
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10/21 LONDON: A YouGov poll of Arab Americans commissioned by the Arab News Research & Studies Unit suggests a massive Arab-American turnout (87 percent), with Palestine being the top priority, and Trump enjoying a 2 percentage point lead over Harris.
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I hate to say, but I think they FiNALLY GOT TRUMP.
I don’t think he can survive Handgate.
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Wtf?
BREAKING: Kamala’s “town hall” host told an audience member they aren’t allowed to ask her any questions. “You’re not [allowed to ask questions.] We have some pre-determined questions.”
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Trump 64
Harris. 36
down 28
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election
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Predictit
Trump. 59
Harris 46
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Dw?
https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1848523244631945245/photo/1
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Let’s not “peak” too early. You don’t want to give the Dems time to get too desperate.
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jasonyupanqui47,
Just heard an interesting item on Fox news…..if people have already voted and the early votes favor the Rs in some battleground states then an October ‘surprise’ by the Democrats is clearly defanged.
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Yeah, but the number of people voting early and by mail is down considerably.
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I wonder what we would be saying right now if the betting markets were 60-40 Kamala and the swing states mostly showed her leading.
We would be holding out hope nonetheless, I imagine.
Over at DKos, the meme is “we will win, the betting markets and polls are wrong”
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New @trafalgar_group | Michigan Battleground (10/18-20):
🔴 Trump: 46.0%
🔵 Harris: 44.2%
🟡 Other: 3.6%
❓ Undecided: 6.3%
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Seems like a lot of undecideds this close to the election. I hope they are shy Trump voters.
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The NM senate race is interesting as its Republican candidate is Nella Domenici. She is the daughter of the late Pete Domenici, the last Republican Senator to represent NM from 1973-2009. I wonder how she is doing in that race, being she has such good name recognition.
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Scooter, every pundit I listen to says they can’t believe there are any undecided voters left in this very sensationalized election. IMO, there are voters simply keeping their voting decisions private.
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WISCONSIN poll
🔴 Trump: 46.8% (+0.2)
🔵 Harris: 46.6%
@trafalgar_group | 10/18-20 | N=1,083LV
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https://apnews.com/article/russia-brics-china-india-ukraine-turkey-brazil-7c73c1cbee03c0de0d48e5b7314672e8
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Republicans have about $43 million worth of ad time booked in Pennsylvania from tomorrow through Election Day, while Democrats have about $38 million reserved, according to AdImpact data.”
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Wisconsin Michigan Senate poll WISen
🔴 Hovde 49%
🔵 Baldwin 48% MISen
🔵 Slotkin 46%
🔴 Rogers 45
@trafalgar_group
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Good numbers, winning either of those races would be good for the overall Senate, allowing for one or two to vote no on something (to keep them solid in their states, like in Maine)
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Latest uptake from the all knowing Democrat voting guru John Ralston of the Silver State of Nevada….
“Washoe GOP, one of the most irresponsible organizations in Nevada, sent out this today:
‘We have received a report that twice, persons voting on a machine had the machine alter their vote from Trump to Harris”
Mr. Ralston then added….’A report, eh? These people are so irresponsible.’
Mr. Ralston,
How about giving us an update on the early voting in Nevada
How about checking out the Washoe GOP claims before their assuration
How about being a D a..hole hack for just one cycle and try to be a reporter instead
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That is a problem. Even one instance of that should be taken seriously. I can only assume Mr. Ralston would be up in arms if that had been reversed, and a vote for Harris was changed/tallied for Trump. They would be calling for investigations and claiming Trump fraud on the headlines of all the MSM
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oh, and in case you missed it, in the DailyKook (dailykos) piece earlier, they claim realclearpolitics is a far right organization, that inflates for Trump.
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GA early voting stats
10/21
White 61.0%
Black 25.6%
Other/Unknown 13.4%
Overall
White 59.3%
Black 27.4%
Oth/Unk 13.3%
2020 Final
White 56.5%
Black 27.7%
Oth/Unk 15.8%
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Ralston says are have an 8k advantage statewide and because of same day registration, have netted another 1200 voters since the early voting began. Ds are coming out of Clark with only 4k, nowhere near enough to offset the rurals. Was how is effectively a tie, with Rs leading by 700.
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sane
looking at 2020 they look a lot like this year. He lost GA…so does that mean we should be worried about GA?
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Wasn’t GA pushing 40% AA by the end? I thought that was how Biden won the state.
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If I read correctly, Rs out-registered Ds by 15k in the last week in PA, and have now cut the registration edge to well under 300k. Trump won by 41k in 2016 when he had a 900k deficit, lost by 80ish thousand in 2020 when that deficit was cut to 680k. If the trends hold, he doesn’t need to win Independents by much at all, heck, he can probably outright lose them and win by supercharged turnout and WWC Dems who haven’t officially changed parties.
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On Nevada:
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How about being a D a..hole hack for just one cycle and try to be a reporter instead”
Good luck with that.
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Casey running ads that he works well with Trump.
McCormick should “pounce” on that and say if you want someone who will work well with Trump vote for me.
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Inside advantage poles:
Az trump plus 3
Nv tied (0.2 Trump lead)
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Walking last week with my adult son by the Wayne County building in Detroit. I couldn’t help but wonder how many “mail in” ballots were being filled out for Harris in some back room.
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WAPO to the rescue!
Kamala needs to promise a big birthday party for the US!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/20/semiquincentennial-america-birthday-harris-independence/
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A few minutes later…hey son…that’s Cobo Arena…where I saw Queen, Aerosmith, Springsteen, Fleetwood Mac, J Geils, etc as a teenager…AND the vans in the dead of night unloaded the “Mail in” ballots Biden needed to win Michigan in 2020.
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NT
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