Rasmussen Reports polled Nevada from 10/9-10/14 against 748 likely voters
 | NEVADA |
| Trump | 49 |
| Harris | 47 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| *Correction: | |
| Brown | 44 |
| Rosen | 47 |
*Rasmussen reports updated their page with the corrected numbers after wrongly posting a two point Brown lead.
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
80 responses to “Trump up 2 in Nevada and take a second look at the senate numbers”
Sorry Scooter
LikeLike
Wow, first poll I see of Brown even close to Rosen.
Maybe he can revive his campaign with that poll.
LikeLike
Chit !!!!
LikeLike
I know I’m gonna get hammered for saying this, but I’m beginning to think that this election may not end up being that close.
Go ahead, YELL AT ME ALL YOU WANT !!!!
I won’t hear you anyway !!!
LikeLike
Looks like the Dem strategy in the last 2 weeks is to portray Trump as too old, exhausted, and unhinged.
It is strategy # 47 in the campaign.
LikeLike
Scooter, I have an appt with the audiologist after the election. I will ask about the Siemens hearing aids
LikeLike
The Dems are gong to spend $350 million on attack ads from here to election day.
LikeLike
repost for Bl from the other thread:
I care more about her experiences. She has had a big rise to get to vp. However, she was a subpar attorney. As a jr attorney (starting position), her performance evaluations were poor. She got ahead by sleeping with Willlie Brown (powerful person at the time in the ca assembly as well as later on mayor of Sf.
Mayor Brown was actually a descent mayor of sf. Kept sf cleaner than what it became now (cesspool/vacant offices). However, he was married and still banged her. At the time, she was quite young and it looked more like a “father- daughter.”
For phuqing Willie, she was rewarded with two positions and she was not qualified for either. At some point, the relationship broke off.
She barely won the ca ag in 2010, a big year for Ds in the state. She underperformed. Then she became Senator and by all accounts was like the aoc for her position, a dunce.
LikeLike
And Jason will probably not see many where he lives but I will be flooded with them.
LikeLike
That’s good Tina. They may not carry that Brand, but if you are going to an Audiologist, they should be able to get you what you need. Might be a little pricey. Hearing aids aren’t cheap. For years my insurance would not pay a dime towards hearing aids, but would fully pay for glasses. If someone could explain the rationale behind that policy, I’d love to hear it.
LikeLike
LikeLike
I’m not a fan of Harris. I will vote to stop her. My question was about the accusations of substance abuse.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Scooter makes no sense at all. Mine covers up to $2500. I figure by walking into the office, the $2500 is already exhausted
LikeLike
I answered that too, bl
LikeLike
She is just following up on the Catholic bias from the event here.
https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/just-in-kamala-embroiled-in-new-scandal-after-stunning-anti-christian-comments-mace/?utm_medium=agg&utm_source=economics
LikeLike
Harris tells Christians to get away from her and go vote for Trump:
Florida’s Voice@FLVoiceNews
·3h
WATCH: During campaign rally, Kamala Harris tells onlooker who says “Jesus is Lord” that they are “at the wrong rally”
LikeLike
They are already triggered this am because trump will go to McDonald’s and run a fry station somewhere in Pa.
Trump said he will be working at McDonald’s longer than Harris.
LikeLike
8 years ago, the NY Times model, you know, because they are the standard of journalistic excellence and reliable news and commentary:
LikeLike
that alone not only demonstrates their bias, but that it’s not even a science. It’s educated guessing….
look at the two candidates and see who’s winning. Konrad Kamala, in Tina’s clip last night, was actually yelling and furious at the thought she was losing and DJT would become President again
LikeLike
Just a few minutes ago from Silver….”Happy Saturday. Not the highest-quality set of polling entering our database. Kamala Harris got some good numbers from The Bullfinch Group in the Blue Wall states, but they’ve had a strong D-leaning house effect, throughout the cycle….”
Well, duh. Thanks for insight Captain Obvious.
LikeLike
Vic, behavior by the two campaigns is often the number one indicator of where its going. Not a guarantee, because even their internal polling and analysis can miss something.
But these factors with under three weeks to go, all tell a story:
a) Behavior of the campaigns. Harris is getting more shrill and angry, or loopy and goofy, depending on the context. She is straining to find something that resonates, even if she says things that are immediately verifiable as false (like Trump is tired out and hiding). Meanwhile Trump is having a good time, enjoying himself, exuding confidence and leadership.
b) Where the campaigns are holding events and campaigning. Harris is moving resources between Milwaukee and Philly, while Trump had rallies in CO, CA, and is planning one for New Hampshire and New York.
c) Early voting. By all indications, the GOP is crushing the early vote compared to past elections, and not just cannibalizing their election day vote, but getting low-propensity voters locked in early. In NC the GOP leads outright in early voting, and its close in Florida. The reddest areas of Virginia have cranked out huge numbers.
d) Lastly, the polling data. With under three weeks to go, the above factors are more important, but polling still has a role in telling the story, even with votes actively being cast. It won’t be long before there will be enough that pollsters will ask how they actually voted. But in recent days, there has clearly been movement in Trump’s direction, both nationally, and in the states. And the senate races have also moved in the direction of the GOP candidates.
For me personally, one of the biggest polling indicators was when Morning Consult threw in the towel on the battleground states earlier this week. They were never Harris +5 or Harris +6, but for them to finally admit this means they wanted to have some kind of credibility after this election.
LikeLike
And had Silver been honest, he would have mentioned that Bullfinch released raw numbers, inviting readers to weight them however they want. In short, they released collected data, not a completely finished poll.
LikeLike
LikeLike
Very, very good article from Josh Hammer entitled “The Collapse of Kamala Harris” who he call the ‘dimwitted cackler-in-chief”
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/10/18/the_collapse_of_kamala_harris_151800.html
LikeLike
Rasmussen Reports has posted a correction. The numbers they displayed, and the wording in the writeup were clearly Brown 49, Rosen 47. This was clearly written up and described in the paragraph as Brown now leading by two. They have now replaced that part of the write-up with:
“In the battle to control the U.S. Senate, Democrat Jacky Rosen leads Republican challenger Sam Brown by a three-point margin, 47% to 44%.”
This after some noticed that in the crosstabs its was Rosen 47, Brown 44.
LikeLike
But still, with Brown down only 3, a decent shot to win NV.
LikeLike
Trump to hold his rally today at the Arnold Palmer Regional Airport in Latrobe, PA. It will be interesting to see the turnout…
LikeLike
I come here to get the relatively advanced election analysis that so many of you provide. Even the campaign anecdotes add color to the election.
However, I notice that many point out the vast improvement in early voting that is undeniably occurring across the country by the GOP, especially when compared to past presidential elections.
It seems to me that assuming overtly optimistic good things for the GOP MAY, MAY be somewhat poorly considered. In 2020, the DEMS overperformed in early vote because they were organized and their targeted voters were the very ones who were isolated and hunkered down due to fear of COVID. Added to that was the ridiculous push by Team Trump to tell everyone NOT to early vote but to wait until election day.
They created a narrative that ballot harvesting was election stealing (in most states it is legal when the law is followed) and caused such suspicion about the disappointed Trump voters that they didnt turn out in Georgia for the run-off and caused the loss of one if not both of the senate seats in the January run-off.
So, with the push by Team Trump to vote early and the lessened fear of the Dems of COVID, is the GOP improvement an indication of these factors, rather than an increase of motivation among GOP voters while DEM voters are less so?
I early voted yesterday. It was packed. The county I vote in is strongly GOP-leaning. The registrar told me people were lined up both yesterday and the day before (when early voting started) before the polls opened. She said she had never seen anything like it in all of the years she had worked the polls.
I only saw Trump bumperstickers on the vehicles in the parking lot, and there were about 7-8 GOP volunteers outside the poll and none for the Dems. There IS more activity than in previous years, but I am wondering if it is less an indication of a swing to the right but rather an indication that things we arent facing a COVID-motivated DEM base and a smarter GOP electorate this year.
Just curious.
LikeLike
I am not sure how campaigning with usher today helps her with what happened yesterday.
LikeLike
oahodges, you are correct in your observations. But where it matters is the low-propensity voter. Trump has boots on the ground in the battleground status where early voting is happening, shaking every tree and locating people willing to vote for Trump, those who rarely ever vote. Banking THESE votes early is not cannibalizing election date vote.
But these low propensity voters would be very difficult to get out on election day.
LikeLike
So, with the push by Team Trump to vote early and the lessened fear of the Dems of COVID, is the GOP improvement an indication of these factors, rather than an increase of motivation among GOP voters while DEM voters are less so?”
I think a lot of conservative media such as Hannity are encouraging people to vote early. I have received several mailings from Trump and other GOP candidates urging me to vote early.
I am skeptical about the positive effect of this except for two reasons:
I will still vote on election day, f–k it.
LikeLike
But these low propensity voters would be very difficult to get out on election day.”
I guess that is a third reason.
LikeLike
The vibes in rural York Co. are more like 2016 than 2020. There are Trump signs everywhere, not only houses, every intersection….barns, derelict trailers and tractors with Trump signs, you name it. This is the case throughout red PA and I think turnout will be massive.
Anecdotal, but I travel a lot in PA. Let’s see.
LikeLike
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
BREAKING: Kamala Harris was asked about how Republicans are out-performing in early voting, goes on to say “it’s great” that her party is losing.
“It’s what we should all want.”
We finally agree on something.
“What I’m hearing is that we’re seeing record turnout.”
Yeah… from Republicans.
LikeLike
thanks for your report on PA jason. I have traveled a bit in the state, often up US 15. Yeah, during election season the signage can be incredible.
Here in VA the pro-Trump and pro-GOP signage is far beyond what was here in 2016 or 2020.
LikeLike
The Pakistani American Political Action Committee (PAKPAC) also announced its support for the GOP candidate, saying that while they also do not agree on everything with Trump, they believe he is the best candidate to release political prisoners in Pakistan and “reverse the country’s democratic backsliding.”
The Camelid Husbandry Association could be next.
LikeLike
Latinx Adjacent Doctor
The black percentage has now fallen to 29.7%
This honestly has never happened on a Saturday in the last decade in Georgia. Maybe longer. I only have the data back to 2018 in front of me.
Uncharted waters.
LikeLike
Any Nv reports? I think ev just began. What was the name of that “journalist?”
LikeLike
The idea the GOP is crushing early voting is only cannibalization of the overall vote is BS. Plenty of people end up not voting on election day for a variety of reasons, they get busy, sick, bad weather, or just decide it’s not worth the effort. Banking those votes when desire meets opportunity is always preferable and will result in more overall votes.
This also ties to the GOP out registering Dems this year. Those people are very likely to vote.
LikeLike
Michael Pruser
@MichaelPruser
North Carolina Early Voting Update – 10.19 Good morning, election followers. We kick off Saturday mornings with the last seven days of net change in NC voter registrations:
Republicans: +8,746
Democrats: +7,126
Others: +18,742 Today, Republicans flipped the numbers, leading the in-person voting period by 691 votes. With two weekend days ahead, Democrats will take the lead and possibly return it next week. We’re on a see-saw to start. It goes without saying, but Democrats cannot go into election day with a raw turnout deficit; I do my best to stay measured and grounded with all possibilities ahead, but “Democrats are waiting to outvote Republicans on election day in North Carolina” is not one of them. Early on, NC is starting to shape up like Georgia. White and Republican out of the gate. Let’s see what kind of lead Democrats can build over the next two days and whether they begin relinquishing it again on Monday. Complete breakdowns of numbers are updated through today on the NC Sheet, including county breakdowns.
LikeLike
Weaving into the low propensity voter, being associated more to the high early voting phenomenon…..Charlie Kirk held an event last week in AZ with highly motivated voters. When he asked how many had voted, only 10% raised their hands. What he presumed was these people were voting later, and the high voter turnout noted were more likely comprised of low propensity voters.
LikeLike
Trump going for the jugular in PA:
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
29m
BREAKING: Donald Trump will hold a “Black Men’s Barbershop Talk” event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with
@ByronDonalds
tomorrow at 4PM ET.
LikeLike
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
43s
LIZZO: If Kamala wins, the entire country will look like Detroit.
–She said this campaigning FOR Harris, not AGAINST her. Talk about a person out of touch with reality! Your peaceful, charming small towns can all be turned into the same cesspool that’s Detroit! Just vote for Kamala to get it!
LikeLike
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
20m
Democrat on North Carolina:
Quote
Dr. Brandon Presley Fan 🇺🇸
@DrPresleyFan
·
4h
Replying to @wiay204
We’re getting absolutely obliterated in early voting there.
LikeLike
What I find most informative are the public interviews done with people waiting in line for some event. In many cases it’s the first time such attendees have participated in a rally. The issues most concerning for them are, hands down, the border and economy….no mention of abortion. Their vehemence to vote is high, and their dislike for how the country is trending under dem leadership is equally clear. Also, there doesn’t seem to be a diminishing of interest in this election. People are geared up to vote out the current administration with continuing packed events. What remains a deterrent, IMO, is the cloud of dem fraud interfering with an honestly run election.
LikeLike
Thanks, all, for your thought-ful responses and for providing some reasons to see there are green shoots of hope among the hype.
LikeLike
Tina, it was John Ralston. From what I gather today is such a huge day for Democrats in Nevada that Obama is down there to get the D’s off to flying start…
LikeLike
Election predictions by cookie sales continues:
”President Trump is dominating election cookies sales at a Pittsburgh-area bakery.
Oakmont Bakery is selling cookies with Trump’s face, Kamala Harris’s face and a ‘third party’ labeled the ‘sweetest candidate’ for people who don’t like either candidate.
Harris is so hated that she is in third place.
“So Donald Trump is leading at 21,000 individual cookies,” Oakmont Bakery General Manager Tony Serrao told KDKA-TV. “Kamala Harris is at 6,200, and the sweetest candidate is about 9,800.”
LikeLike
Thanks John.
LikeLike
what we are battling against from the media part 6,492;
actual headlines from Vanity Fair
Trump Suggests Abraham Lincoln Should’ve Let the South Keep a Little Slavery. – (btw he never said that)
Inside the Violence and Radicalization of America’s Neo-Nazi Youth
Kamala Harris Just Comes Out and Says It: Donald Trump Is F–king Nuts
why this is Kamala’s election to lose right now
LikeLike
“providing some reasons to see there are green shoots of hope among the hype.”
Hype is a real danger. I recall well in 1984, back when there was much less polling, and much more reliance on anecdotal evidence, there was a concern right up to the end that Mondale could be closing the gap, and there would be the first female vice-president.
But in more modern times, hype can easily be found on both sides, and its important to look outside either red bubbles or blue bubbles to determine what is actually happening.
LikeLike
Suddenly, polling in these states has dried up. I wonder why?
ME: Last poll ended 9/15
CO: Last poll ended 9/18
NY: Last poll ended 9/25
NJ: Last poll ended 9/29
VA: Last poll ended 10/4
NH: Last poll ended 10/10
MN and NM: Last poll ended 10/14, with Harris only +4 in New Mexico
I am not saying Trump is going to win any of these states, but given the recent shift toward Trump in battleground states, it would be nice to see some new polling in these states. Particularly so given the newest here is the far left Redfield & Wilton saying Harris is up only 4 in New Mexico.
LikeLike
Henderson, NV:
bella
@bella_tweetss
·
2h
At Galleria Mall in Henderson for the first day of early voting in Nevada!
The lines go down the length of the entire mall and voters say that they’re eager to cast their ballots @TheNVIndy
LikeLike
early NV numbers, from GOP leaning areas only so far.
LikeLike
the question is. Are those Nevada numbers good
and
I really do pray we’re not eating away at our Election Day vote, as others have said
LikeLike
CNN Commentator Says White People Who Don’t Vote For Kamala Harris Need to Be Held Accountable
LikeLike
Yikes as a Catholic voter myself:
LikeLike
The 2024 Election Prediction contest Thread has been posted and is linked to the main page above.
LikeLiked by 1 person
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/hkdadam-schiffs-primary-residence-claims-mortgage-electio
”Americans are allowed to claim just one home as their primary residence: the one they live in the majority of the year, according to the federally backed lender Freddie Mac. But Schiff alternately declared both of his properties in the two different states as “principal” on multiple mortgage and election forms dating to 2003 and reviewed by Just the News.
Those declarations over the years won him financial and political benefits like lower mortgage interest rates, tax advantages and the ability to run for election in a California House district.
Schiff and his office did not respond to multiple requests seeking comment by phone or email.”
LikeLike
Atlas Intel polling to drop at 5 pm. They do it in a long-winded youtube show where it takes them forever to provide the numbers.
LikeLike
AtlasIntel
@atlas_intel
·
53m
Andrei Roman, CEO of AtlasIntel, and Pedro Azevedo, Head of US Coverage, will cover highlights from the latest Atlas polls at national and state levels. With two weeks until Election Day, the race remains tight as ever.
LikeLike
“As tight as ever” suggests they didn’t get much different results compared to their last poll that had Trump ahead in the rust belt, but struggling in the sun belt, the reverse of most other polling.
LikeLike
LikeLike
atlas intel national:
Trump 50.7 / Harris 47.6
LikeLike
Atlas appears to be indicating that their state poles are off?
LikeLike
Wow, Harris looks like she can’t get away from her own rally fast enough. This is truly a strange election.
LikeLike
Yes, and the next event for her, she did not even identify the location.
LikeLike
LikeLike
If Trump is up 3 Nationally, he’s not losing any Swing States. Especially not North Carolina.
LikeLike
I don’t want to get cocky, but those Atlas numbers are very good for Trump. We all know about WI polls underestimating Trump, and I do think that pollsters are having some trouble reaching the right blend of voters in NC due to the storm (some pollsters have also conceded that in trying to get the right number of Democrats into the raw sample, they are reaching more of the demographic tilted towards Harris ie college graduates vice working class Dems who sometimes break for Trump, especially in NC and the Rust Belt).
MI is the one that worries me, I can see that slipping away, as well as NV. I am bullish on PA and the rest of the Sun Belt, though, and that seals the election.
LikeLike
A plus 3 National lead for Trump would put VA, NH, and possibly MN all in play. Their State polls do not match up to their National poll.
LikeLike
New thread at 7:00.
LikeLike
@TonerousHyus
Georgia IPEV Day 5 Update 4:30pm – 150k voted White (813,807) 59.7% Black (373,295) 27.3% First “Souls to the Polls” Saturday was a bust. Weakest since Pre-Obama 2008. Final Black Share today was only 26.7% There are now nearly 1.4M votes.
·
1,244 Views
LikeLike
Title the new thread Gfy part 3.
LikeLike
LikeLike
who was the most accurate pollster name spelled wrong is referring to.
LikeLike
Check in at 7 to find out.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I can’t tell you how devastating this poll by AtlasIntel is. This poll, which has a MOE of 2%, has now Trump up over 3%. This catastrophic news for the Harris campaign easily tops the Baier interview, state polls that has Trump trending upward and anything other as the worst ‘bad news’ story for the Democrats. to date It is totally beyond comphrehension that Harris can pull out of this with just over two weeks to go.
This is looking more likely a double….both EV and PV victory for Trump.
LikeLike
Could someone explain what the two Daugherty posts mean? First has NC barely going to Harris. The second has Trump up big in NC. I know I’m missing something here, but what is it? Did they put out two different polls?
LikeLike
One was the atlas poll the other was the election predications of the posters.
LikeLike