According to Mitchell Research & Communications Oct. 14; 589 LV
 | MICHIGAN |
| Trump | 47 |
| Harris | 47 |
| Others | 2 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Rogers | 43 |
| Slotkin | 47 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
118 responses to “Close in Michigan”
First…..Suckers !!!!!
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Trump 48.5% (+1.1)
Harris 47.4%
MIRS | 10/14 | 589 LV
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I don’t know how much meaning early vote has, but it does seem like we are seeing a trend.
New Mexico early vote Return 2020 vs 2024
2020
🔵61% (+39 )
🔴22%
🟡 17%
TOTAL: 262,782
2024
🔵50% (+12)
🔴38%
🟡12%
TOTAL: 44,816
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Latinx Adjacent Doctor
Looking at Georgia votes about 15-20% of all northern rurals in Georgia are non-voters from 2020. These are the WWC rurals GOP has long hoped to finally get to the polls as there’s about 2M of them registered to vote that didn’t in 2020.
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I guess it’s the same pole but he reported it with a trump leas
d?
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same poll, full field is what I go with when the full-field correctly reflects who is actually on the ballot.
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For what he paid the ex-wives in alimony and child support, they should be cordial. Lots of money and free of him. Great deal.”
WIns the false equivalency BS award of the
LIke all celebrity wives who get alimony and child support are “cordial”? What horsesh-t.
And of course, they were a lot more than cordial, they had a great relationship with Trump and were highly supportive of him. They would have gotten “alimony and child support” anyway.
Typical “holier than thou” nonsense.
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You can fill in Bitter’s false equivalency award.
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Jason/Mr. Irrelevant better hope that Trump wins PA. If Harris wins, I will relentlessly remind HHR that Mr. Irrelevant offered no opposition to her election. His opinions are worthless if he does not vote.
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Vance even throws her a lifeline, offering suggestions on how she could answer the tough questions. But he knows that her terminal case of TDS will not allow her to say anything other than It’s Trump’s fault.
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Kamala completely tanked on Polymarket
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1729175985826
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Sounds like Nate is getting a little worried.
Nate Silver: “And Harris probably faces a tougher environment than Clinton ’16 or Biden ’20. Incumbent parties around the world are struggling, cultural pendulum swinging conservative, inflation and immigration are big deals to voters, plus Biden fucked up and should have quit sooner.”
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If Harris wins, I will relentlessly remind HHR that Mr. Irrelevant offered no opposition to her election”
zzzzzz……
Yet “Mr. False Equivalency” is so “opposed” to her election that he feels compelled to share his fake moral superiority schtick “I hate Trump” several times a dauy.
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plus Biden fucked up and should have quit sooner.”
You mean Jill Biden f-cked up?
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His opinions are worthless if he does not vote.”
We break new ground at HHR on a daily basis….
People cannot have opinions if they don’t vote?
Who knew?
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“plus Biden f***ed up and should have quit sooner”
That’s not what they hypocritical clowns were saying at the time. They were propping up Biden saying it was just right-wing slander.
STAND UP CHUCK!!
Let everyone see you…bless you…what am I saying?
EVERYONE STAND UP FOR CHUCK!!
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Mr. Irrelevant’s thousands of posts count for exactly 0 votes.
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”Trump in power 10 years is why we have a bad economy, inflation, illegals, and wars. “
-Joy
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Mr. Irrelevant can post his political opinions. His political opinions are worthless if he does not vote. Both can be true.
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It is noted that trump has canceled media interviews with the media, including one with a pan nbc reporter. He is smart to do this. No doubt that they will focus the interview on j6, abortion, and what trump said in 2002.
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His political opinions are worthless if he does not vote.”
LOL
I don’t vote in 189 countries. I can still have opinions about any of them.
GFY.
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Maybe Israel eliminated Sinwar….
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After watching the Kamala train wreck on Fox yesterday, I think her supposed future interview with Joe Rogan ain’t happening. Her handlers have seen enough. LOL
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Trump +1 in RCP Michigan page.
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Mark Cuban impressed that Kamala understood the questions!
“The beautiful thing about the @BretBaierinterview is that@KamalaHarris understood and responded to each question. She used examples of policies. She gave real world context. When Brett went hard after her. She didn’t call him names. She didn’t quit the interview. She didn’t make things up. She never once complained the questions were tough. She never played the victim card. She didn’t lose her temper. She didn’t take the bait to diminish or talk down to Trump supporters. She stood up to him with force and never backed down. He has been the President and campaigning for 9 years. Kamala Harris has caught up to him in just 100 days . That speaks volumes. It’s why people want to vote for her. That’s why so many Republicans and Independents are supporting her She is everything her opponent is not and will never be. Strong, Smart and Measured”
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Phil, did you see the ActiVote poll of Texas showing Trump ahead more than 11 points?
I don’t think too much of these polls, but hopefully they are right on this one.
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OSINTdefender@sentdefender
·
1h
Israeli Sources have now confirmed the Elimination of Yahya Sinwar, the Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau as well as its Military Wing in the Gaza Strip.
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Al Smith Dinner is tonight.
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#1 on the pardon list for Trump if he wins?
https://redstate.com/brutalbrittany/2024/10/17/pro-life-activist-bevelyn-beatty-williams-votes-for-trump-before-turning-herself-in-to-federal-prison-n2180682
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Harris down to +1.5 in the RCP average.
I hope it is at least even by election day, just to make sure.
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They need to hire Bitter, who really understands both good and bad Philadelphia.
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I did not see that, DW. I look for Trump to win the state by 7 or 8 points – two or three points more than the 2020 cycle. Cruz will win his race by 3-4 points. This year will mark 30 years since a Democrat has won a statewide race here in Texas……..that’s governor, attorney general, state treasurer, state Supreme Court justice, Secretary of State, dog catcher, etc etc.
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TDS is really a horrible disease. These people are actually willing to appear on stage with someone who is by far the most leftist nominee in history.
“When Kamala Harris took the stage at a rally in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, she shared the stage with a bevy of quisling Republicans. The turncoats included former Representatives Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Barbara Comstock and Denver Riggleman of Virginia, Chris Shays of Connecticut, Jim Greenwood of Pennsylvania, and Mickey Edwards of Oklahoma. Also featured were former New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman, former Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan, and “more than 100 Republicans.”
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Change from this point in 2020:
National: Trump+7.4
Pennsylvania: Trump+5.9
Michigan: Trump+8.2
Wisconsin: Trump+6
North Carolina: Trump+4.1
Arizona: Trump+5.1
Georgia: Trump+2.7 RealClearPolitics
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Sorry, did not mean to include a link to Kamala’s rally
Don’t want anybody to lose their lunch
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More thoughts on Virginia.
I have read that its just too big a lift for Trump to flip Virginia. Biden won the state in 2020 with a margin of 10.11. So Trump would have to close that gap, plus 1 vote to win. Some say that states just don’t move that much in just 4 years.
Except for when they do.
It happens in a POTUS election year that plays out as a change election…now lets see…2016? Nope, that was an open election with no incumbent, where the GOP wanted change, but the left did not. Thankfully, just barely enough independents wanted change and Trump won. The gap in Virginia in 2016 was 5.32.
2012 was not a change election where the electorate beyond the GOP demanded change–at least they didn’t want the change to Romney.
And so we come to 2008. That was a change election, where Obama and his accomplices in the media sold the hope and change message, and the electorate bought into it, which was particularly easy given the ineptitude of McCain. It was so bad, the one anecdote that summed it up was a story about a kid in PA who answered the door, and said to his father in another room, “there’s someone at the door wanting to know who you are going to vote for” and the Father said, “tell ’em I’m gonna vote for the niqqer.”
2008 was a change election, and Virginia swung a whopping 14.5 points from 2004.
So it can be done. Trump only needs 69.8% of the swing Obama got in 2008 to win Virginia. It can be done. Particularly when enough Virginians are fed up and have had enough. Like three years ago when the GOP swept the top three races in the state.
Its going to be close. I am not ready to call it either way. But if the late polling shows a national tilt toward Trump, that would signal the probability of a strong change election, and Virginia will drop into Trump’s column, ending the election by 9:30 p.m.
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If you are wondering who Mickey Edwards is, he quit Congress in 1993 and is 87.
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But heck, they put the poor old bastard on stage.
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I’m hoping he’s saying this because he’s seen some good internals.
BREAKING: RNC Chairman Michael Whatley is confident that the results of the 2024 election will be known on election night.
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Wisconsin Senate is tightening.
WI SENATE:
Baldwin (D) 50% Hovde (R) 47%
Conducted by @ScottWRasmussen for @NapolitanNews
Last month, Baldwin led by six
787 LV, Oct 10-16
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Kamala crashing in the betting markets
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
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Not a good answer if you are trying to win Pennsylvania !!!
Tim Walz just came out against abandoning the Green New Deal.
“Does that mean that the Green New Deal should be scrapped?”
“No.”
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It was time for the gift on giving (doltz) to give us an assist.
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Virginia early voting update. The four GOP leaning congressional districts gained again yesterday on the five DEM leaning districts, 17777 more ballots returned the day before grew to 19560 more ballots returned yesterday. Overall, 19.23% of the Virginia 2020 electorate has voted so far, and 13.7% of registered Virginians have already voted.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
6m NEW FINAL WISCONSIN poll
🔴 Trump: 50% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 49%
Last month: Harris+1
RMG | 10/10-16 | N=787LV
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Betting markets have only been wrong twice since 1860.
So they could be wrong again….
But I would rather be up than down considering their record.
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jaichind drove by, posted one comment and then disappeared.
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By far the BEST battleground state polling for Obamala has been Morning Insult polling. Their last ones were brutal. Now here is their updated polling:
BATTLEGROUND polls
🔴 WI: Trump+1
🔴 GA: Trump+1
🔴 NC: Trump+1
🔵 AZ: Harris+1
🔵 PA: Harris+1
🔵 MI: Harris+2
🔵 NV: Harris+4
Morning Consult | 10/6-15 | LVs
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I am really surprised Michigan Guy never came back. I still think Bitter’s comment that made him leave was completely innocuous.
As far as Chicon is concerned, maybe he just got disgusted his A-hole application is taking so long to be approved.
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MC can claim they nailed it either way.
Zzzzzz….
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Silver has finally flipped to a Trump lead.
Nate Silver 2024 election forecast update
🔴 Trump: 50.2% [+3]
🔵 Harris: 49.5% [-3.1]
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compared to their prior batch:
🔴 WI: Trump+1 (Harris +3)
🔴 GA: Trump+1 (TIE)
🔴 NC: Trump+1 (Harris +2)
🔵 AZ: Harris+1 (Harris +3)
🔵 PA: Harris+1 (Harris +3)
🔵 MI: Harris+2 (Harris +4)
🔵 NV: Harris+4 (Harris +6)
Folks, she just lost Morning Consult rescue polling.
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I would prefer Baldwin under 50 but its still close enough for Hovde to squeak by.
WI SENATE:
Baldwin (D) 50% Hovde (R) 47%
Conducted by @ScottWRasmussen for @NapolitanNews
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I see it was posted above, just giving my 2 cents.
Of course, it is worth nothing because I don’t vote in Wisconsin (new HHR rule)
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and if you are wondering if perhaps Morning Consult still has their thumb on the scale, check out their senate numbers from the same polling:
AZ: Gallego+12
MD: Alsobrooks+13
MI: Slotkin+7
NV: Rosen+15
OH: Moreno+1
PA: Casey+8
TX: Cruz+1
WI: Baldwin+5
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We used to have an oncologist who posted here. He was also very involved with treating COVID patients early on. I think his handle was Pitchaboy.
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“The Electoral College race remains as close to 50/50 as it gets. But with some good polls for Trump entering our database today, like a 2-point lead in a high-quality national poll and a big lead in Georgia (though he trails in North Carolina in the same Quinnipiac poll), if you squint at the probabilities, you’ll see Trump 50.2%, Harris 49.5%. (There’s an 0.3% chance of a 269-269 tie).
“That’s not much different from yesterday’s forecast of Harris 50.3%, Trump 49.4%. But however nominal, it’s Trump’s first lead in our model since Sept. 19. There’s a good chance that the lead will continue to shift back and forth, akin to a 110-109 basketball game late in the fourth quarter.”
Translation: please don’t skewer me for showing a Trump lead. It might change tomorrow.
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jason, I think Hovde is doing to make it. Ron Johnson way overperformed his polling. Johnson never got numbers as good as Hovde is getting right now.
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I firmly believe that Trump will win Wisconsin. Pollsters have ALWAYS underestimated Trump there. Some by significant margins. I believe you can probably add a couple points to Trump, for any poll that involves Wisconsin. Just my opinion.
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Pitch and jaichind are both Indians.
I remember they didn’t agree with each other much.
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“Ron Johnson way overperformed his polling.”
Maybe. But he barely won against a much crappier candidate than Baldwin who is an incumbent. I think he only won by 20k votes.
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Just my opinion”
Do you vote in Wisconsin?
If not, your opinion ain’t worth sh-t.
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Lots of people saw different things in the Harris Fox News interview. Many men saw flashbacks of the nasty ex-wife who wouldn’t answer any questions in divorce court but just kept pointing at her ex-husband, blaming him for everything.
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Where you have to worry..
Mandela Barnes Democratic 243,638 70.00%
Ron Johnson Republican 103,666 29.78%
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That was Milwaukee Co.
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In 2010, Ron Johnson, who had never run for office before, bounced longtime Dem incumbent Russ Feingold, getting 52% of the vote.
Then in 2016, he was given up for dead. He had to face Feingold in a rematch, and polling like Emerson said he was down 5 in the home stretch. The final RCP average was +2.7 for Feingold, and Johnson won, +3.4
Then in 2022, the race jason referred to above, Johnson was the favorite and held on, falling short of the polling average, but he was hampered by going back on his promise NOT to run for re-election.
But the better comparison for Hovde is the 2016 race, where Trump carried the day, and Johnson outpaced the RCP average by six points, and Johnson had to defeat a second time, the prior long-standing incumbent.
Baldwin essentially is a senator for D.C. where she lives on the top floor of a luxury apartment.
I think Hovde is going to do it.
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Those of us who are voting say Zzzzzzzzz to Mr. Irrelevant.
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Country Dick Morris was also a good poster with insight on PA’s energy workers.
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Only issue in WI is that many see him as a carpetbagger; they think he’s just a Californian masquerading as a local. Why, I don’t know, but I’ve heard it even from my libertarian leaning right of center friends in the state.
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That one hit close to home DW!!!! LOL. 4.5 years of it.
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when did Jai come and post. i missed that. Pitch, Jai, MG, Chicon, SDG, all would be welcome back.
I also didn’t think Bitter’s comment was enough to push MG away. It would have been good to get his input on Michigan right now. As for Chicon. he never gave any indication that he wanted to leave. He took the best Bitter/Jason could give and still stuck around. I appreciated his participation.
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Vic, yep…and guess which demographic Harris needs to improve if she wants to win? Men. So while the left keeps trying to say she was tough and she ‘won’ the debate with Bret Beier, the undecided men she needed to impress came away re-living their time in divorce court.
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GF, that’s perhaps a fair accusation, but its mitigated by the way Baldwin has behaved, as being a D.C. senator whose disconnect from Wisconsin is very real.
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FINAL MICHIGAN poll
🔴 Trump: 49% (=)
🔵 Harris: 49%
Last poll: Harris+3
RMG | 10/10-16 | N=789LV
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NORTH CAROLINA poll
🔴 Trump: 47.2% (+0.6)
🔵 Harris: 46.6%
🟡 Undecided: 4.1%
Cygnal | 10/12-14 | N=600LV
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I have traveled through Michigan at least 10 times over the last 50 years. I would be glad to be the expert (reluctantly) on Michigan if nobody else wants it. But I never traveled to Milwaukee or Detroit. My expertise is the U.P. and the middle of the state going N-S on the interstate.
I am a fast expert on WV.
I guess I could be a half fast expert on MI.
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what was I just telling you about Virginia?
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DW she definitely gave the vibe of “I am right, I am always right. You’re a man trying to bully me, and all men are wrong. It doesn’t matter what I do, because it’s Donald Trump’s fault. Immigration, his fault because he’s divisive and says mean things (she never said what he did wrong on any subject, just we was wrong). And then the one that is going to resonate. He’s going to use military to round us up, because he’s a man!!!
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ummmm why is the leadership of a foreign country sending people to the United States to help Komrade Harris win the election? Someone want to help me with that?
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She should be arrested.
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Walt was also an expert on Troy, Carthage, the Tower of Babel, and Neanderthal villages.
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Labour used to send a few delegates to the DNC back in the day. They didn’t vote on procedural matters so far as I know, but it was more of a solidarity thing. I never heard about volunteer workers being organized, though; that needs to stop asap.
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“The analysis of the election map is now switched around to looking for a path for HER to win.”
2016: This was said on election night around 9:30 p.m.
2024: This is being said NOW, with just under three weeks to go.
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Yes send all those people with British accents to tell the local yokels how to vote.
“I say, old chap, what ghastly weather today, I am in a perfect snit about it myself. And don’t forget to vote for our favorite lass Kamawla!”
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Country Dick Morris”
Ah yes, I had some epic fights with Country Dick Montana. I wonder if he is even voting, he thought everything should be burned down so something could emerge from the ashes.
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I didn’t remember that. That’s also the Pauliac theory. Burn it all down and then people will align with their theory of anarchism, lord of the flies mentality because for them, not being held accountable for any actions or being called on to defend their neighbors or themselves is paramount
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follow up as it is from the ny post:
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Where did Kamala’s Billion Dollars go to?
Presidential candidate future reservations in the seven battleground states:
PAPol:🔴$11.9m 🔵$9.1m MIPol:🔴$7.5m 🔵$6.8m GAPol:🔴$8.2m 🔵$5.0m NCPol:🔴$8.9m 🔵$4.1m WIPol:🔴$6.4m 🔵$4.5m AZPol:🔴$5.9m 🔵$3.1m NVPol:🔴$4.5m 🔵$4.2m
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SCOOTER, THAT’S A GREAT QUESTION! SHE’S RAISED A BILLION DOLLARS IN TWO MONTHS, THAT MONEY HAS TO BE SPENT ON CAMPAIGN PURPOSES UNLESS SHES RUNNING THE BIGGEST GRIFT OF ALL TIME.
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Send the video to Scooter. He can confirm whether this is accurate.
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Thats a great blitz by Trump/GOP in the states that matter the most. I think spending in teh final weeks is important, it could be that Komrade spent all her money early, hoping to influence early voters
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I think CDM said he was going to retire and live in Maryland near a beach.
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Sorry, forgot to turn my volume down now that you have your earpiece working.
Talk to the A-Hole HR about our comprehensive hearing plan, it’s right up there with our top notch A Hole coverage.
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In PA, Trump must be spending most of his ad dollars outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh while Harris must be spending most of hers in those markets. It seems like 10 minutes of every 1/2 hour is Harris and Casey ads.
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DW not sure if you saw these polls already. maybe Im late with them:
Pennsylvania: UMass Lowell Harris 46%, Trump 45%
New Hampshire: UMass Lowell Harris 50% , Trump 41%
Pennsylvania Senate – UMass Lowell Casey 48%, McCormick 39%
New Hampshire Governor – UMass Lowell *Ayotte 42%, Craig 41%
Michigan Senate – MNS/Mitchell Research Slotkin 47%, Rogers 43%
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Ras plus 2 – Wisconsin for trump.
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”Talk to the A-Hole HR about our comprehensive hearing plan, it’s right up there with our top notch A Hole coverage.”
Comprehensive hearing plan ???
Another minor detail that I suppose you Bastards accidentally failed to mention ???
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Send the video to Scooter. He can confirm whether this is accurate.
I have seen the video and can verify that what’s posted above is completely accurate. Although it appears Biden did throw in “Ice Cream”, a few times, just out of the blue.
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Yes, I am seeing the poll, but only have time to add them to the history rather than start new threads. Its going to be this way from now to election day…just starting one in the morning, and maybe another for the night shift, or anything that stands out needing a BOOM or a siren.
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thats great DW
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Choka chip ice cream.
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We didn’t sign you up for the hearing coverage. We didn’t think your hearing could be improved. It seemed like wasted money. Like buying sunglasses for a blind person.
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“Moore County Democratic Party Chair Resigns After Being Charged With Theft Of Pro-Trump Yard Signs”
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I dont understand why Kamala is buying so much time in areas where her voted is baked in. She will win 100% of Philly city, and 95% of the abortion loving, bon bon eating, wine/ripple sipping, man hating, View watching peg Bundy suburban woman vote. Why spend on it?
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Vic, she’s got so much cash, she needs to crank out every last person in the Blue and purple zones because she’s going to get little to nothing out of Red country. That’s the only thing I can come up with.
Then again, Philly (both good and bad) have HRC something like 459,000 votes over DJT, but it wasn’t enough.
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Here is the no tossups map at RCP
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Trump at a Bronx barbershop
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@jasonyupanqui47. Sorry. I am really into Japanese politics and they have an election Oct 27th so most of my time is spent on Japan election data analysis. Will get back to this race after the Japan election
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Scooter,
Have you heard any good sign language jokes lately?
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Glad to see Trump In such a strong position. I am concerned about NE Senate race. GOP winning 51 and more like 52 seats in the Senate is the insurance against a Harris win.
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jai. Can you give us a hit if a quick rundown on the elections in Japan
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Jai, are we expecting anything but another LDP win?
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NT at 6:00 pm.
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New Thread
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