From the most accurate pollster in 2020:
| Trump | Harris | |
| AZ | 49.7 | 48.6 |
| GA | 49.3 | 49.0 |
| NC | 47.3 | 50.8 |
| NV | 47.7 | 50.6 |
| MI | 50.5 | 46.6 |
| PA | 50.6 | 48.0 |
| WI | 49.7 | 48.2 |
The hosts were long-winded, and I might not have got the WI numbers right, so I will update this in the morning for accuracy, and the senate numbers. DW
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
131 responses to “New AtlasIntel polls”
The blue wall has been destroyed.
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Atlas Intel Senate Polls:
Arizona Senate: Gallego +4, Gallego 50 Lake 46.
Michigan Senate: Rogers +5, Rogers 49 Slotkin 44.
Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin +1, Baldwin 48 Hovde 47
Pennsylvania: Casey +2, Casey 47 McCormick 45
Nevada: Rosen +2, Rosen 48 Brown 46
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I fixed the WI numbers. The numbers I posted were the full ballot, not the head to head.
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The Atlas polls are pretty good for Trump, but I don’t think anyone would buy into North Carolina being 7 points to the Left of Michigan. Results are a little weird.
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The hosts droned on and on in their program talking about Robinson dragging Trump down in NC, and somehow thinking that the NYC mayor getting indicted might help the NC situation. Clearly they have gaps in their understanding of American politics.
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Atlas has Trump +3 Nationally but losing NC. I’m just not buying that, even with the Robinson situation.
Biden won by 4.5 Nationally and still lost NC.
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Sorry I squashed your overnight thread Bitter, I should have warned that this thread would be put up the moment the AtlasIntel program finished giving the numbers.
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the head to head
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It’s fine. People want polls.
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I will simply repost my earlier thoughts in Atlas; seeing the Senate numbers makes me feel much better about that analysis, and it’s good to see Brown closing in NV.
“I’m somewhat skeptical of NC as reverse coattails do not exist; NV I see being in the realm of possibilities.
“I’d take those results in November any day; Trump winning all those states with senate races matters more than NC which has a powerless governor office that we are going to lose anyhow. +4 in MI means hello Senator Mike Rogers. +3 in PA probably means bye bye Casey. And +2 or more in WI gives us a good chance of tossing Baldwin.”
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Agreed GF. Overall I think AtlasIntel too pessimistic in the sun belt, hopefully on track in the rust belt.
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Your right to ban customers (potential customers). My right ot to buy food there.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/primanti-bros-posts-statement-denying-jd-vance-was/
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So another Gateway Pundit story without a correction? Stunning.
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What’s the correction?
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Crappy sandwich place too
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Dr. Eli David
@DrEliDavid
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Breaking: Israel eliminated Hassan Khalil Yassin, who replaced Hassan Nasrallah hours ago. This breaks the Guinness world record for the shortest tenure as the head of a terrorist organization.
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It seems like the local restaurant manager made the decision.
I think Vance understood that and was right to be non-confrontational.
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I posted that on the other thread.
Bastard didn’t even have time to measure the drapes.
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What’s the correction, Bl?
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Overall I think AtlasIntel too pessimistic in the sun belt, hopefully on track in the rust belt.”
Fine, but the idea that the part of the poll we like is right and the part we don’t like is wrong is certainly within HHR’s tradition.
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Ok, if you posted it on the other thread, good catch and you deserve credit for posting it.
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Personally I do think Robinson is making NC difficult for Trump.
I made the point long ago that he was a bad candidate, and Chicon had a conniption.
He is going to lose big.
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Watching show on the Normandy invasion. Everyone talks about D-Day, but the real killing and losses came later.
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If people are talking about Virginia and Minnesota as battleground States this late in the game, I would assume that’s a bad sign for Harris.
AtlasIntel has announced they look to be polling Virginia and Minnesota in their next battleground polls.
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https://www.wpxi.com/news/politics/primanti-brothers-says-vice-president-nominee-jd-vance-was-not-turned-away-visit/R4PQ5JPSJVDSTDPPXT6QO3SMXQ/?outputType=amp
Vance was subsequently invited in.
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You have been to Pittsburgh once and North Versailles, PA never but somehow you know this?
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You do know that they are not just in pa, rigt?
Also, that report sounds awfully similar to to gateway pundit. Where they cite only the company’s claim (press release).
Strange that no pics exist showing him inside.
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Vance wasn’t banned, the local manager was either a Kamala supporter or ignorant of the restaurant policy.
Vance was careful to say the business should be supported and that he thought the manager was just “nervous”
The restaurant then said he was invited in because it was NOT their policy to deny him entry.
So I think we can move on.
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My uncle came ashore the next day. Apparently, the Germans were still shooting at him until the war ended.
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I was MIA today folks. long day. I had a really interesting thought (well at least in my mind its interesting) but ill wait to post it tomorrow since this isn’t the old days with late night posters…SDC where have you gone my friend…
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I’m still awake Vic, unlike the rest of these old geezers who need all the beauty sleep they can get.
I’d like to HEAR your thought.
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DW: “Overall I think AtlasIntel too pessimistic in the sun belt, hopefully on track in the rust belt.”
jason: “Fine, but the idea that the part of the poll we like is right and the part we don’t like is wrong is certainly within HHR’s tradition.”
The HHR tradition is looking at all the polls and saying that we don’t like them so they are wrong. I was saying in shorthand that for the sunbelt, I would think these polls show AtlasIntel is too pessimistic in the sun belt:
AZ: Trump +6 (Suffolk); Trump +5 (NY Times/Siena)
NC: Trump +2 (FoxNews); Trump +3 (Rasmussen); Trump +4 (Victory Insights)
GA: Trump +3 (NY Times/Siena); Trump +2 (CBS/YouGov, and Refield/Wilton)
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The Dems on X have been complaining about how light Harris & Walz campaign schedule’s have been in comparison to Trumps schedule.
For example, Harris spent all day yesterday in California raising money.
Some examples:
“She ‘s basically given up campaigning. Insane.”
“She already has 3x more money than Trump. Why is she fundraising ? This is so dumb, i cant…”
“So, wasting the majority of a Saturday, while some swing states are getting hit by natural disasters?”
”“Light schedule. Trump has finally picked up the pace. He is an old man. What is her excuse?
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It is also a tradition at HHR to justify why you think polls you like are right and polls you don’t like are wrong.
In my view, you either think Atlas polls are reliable or you don’t.
I am skeptical of the “they are accurate in the Rust Belt” (favor Trump), but not in the Sun Belt (favor Kamala).
Sue me.
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she doesn’t have to campaign when her allies in the leftist media is doing all the heavy lifting for her. Just like she didn’t need a single primary vote to secure the Dem nomination.
Biden flat out admitted she was a DEI pick, and so she feels entitled. She shouldn’t have to ‘do’ anything.
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i agree Jason, and most I have read agree that AtlasIntel pushed the boundaries of state movement in opposite directions too far.
Most all of the other polling out there says Trump is gaining strength in the sun belt, while the rust belt is at best tied. AtlasIntel found the reverse. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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and yes I remain skeptical of their rust belt numbers, particularly MI.
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There is actually a good rationale on why the Sun Belt polls might be more “pessimistic”
If you look at 2016 and 2020, Trump “overperformed” compared to prior R candidates in the Rust Belt and “underperformed” in the Sun Belt.
Many reasons have been given for this, and the one I most subscribe to is that the working class in the Rust Belt is much more attracted to Trump’s message than the Sun Belt working class and perhaps evangelicals in the Sun Belt are less attracted to Trump than they were to “traditional” Republicans.
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and the tell in MI is the Rogers numbers over slotkin. If Rogers was getting that in his internal polls he would have let that leak out at some point
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but if you watch the video, the commentators were clueless on several aspects of American politics, thinking that the indictment of the NYC mayor would help offset the Robinson problem in NC
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NBC News out with a Latino poll, and it’s Harris+14. Biden was +36 four years ago
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The Hispanic narrowing at be beneficial to Trump in nevada and Arizona.
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Roly-poly? Geezus…
“He came across as less dour than most Shiite clerics, partly because of his roly-poly figure, a slight lisp and a propensity to crack jokes. He never pushed hard-line Islamic rules, like veils for women in the neighborhoods that Hezbollah controls.” “He could be by turns avuncular and menacing.”
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But Doltz was at the Mi football game, where he was booed.
Give Quemala a break. She had the interview with her bestie and traveled to the border.
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I find it hard to believe she’d won Arizona or Nevada with those Latino numbers.
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The Hispanic narrowing at be beneficial to Trump in nevada and Arizona.”
Might help in PA too, about 600k Hispanics. However, 80%+ are Puerto Rican Hispanics, traditionally more Dem.
https://www.npr.org/2024/09/26/nx-s1-5124621/latinos-pennsylvania-election-trump-harris
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She is not seeing the numbers among the yutes, Hispanics, and blacks.
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There was a telling cbs interview in Nevada. The reporter travelled the state and could not find Muh support for her. A special concern was in Clark county (Vegas).
The Hispanics complained about high energy prices and grocery costs.
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Walz attended the Minnesota-Michigan game.
He rooted for Michigan because he needs the votes.
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We keep getting polls or articles saying …..
She’s doing worse with Blacks…..
She’s doing worse with Hispanics…..
She’s doing worse with WWC………
She’s doing worse with Catholics……
She’s doing worse with Jews…….
Yet she’s winning the election? I guess it’s possible.
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Funny…
https://x.com/MarauderMag/status/1840197945003524136/photo/1
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I do believe that she was knee capped on the way to the border by Ice. Yes, media won’t cover it, but local news and faux news will cover those number.
In addition to the 4500,000 criminals, you had 300,000 missing children migrants.
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450,000 criminal illegala*
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You know what they say in real estate.
Location, location, location.
Same with these demographics.
It all depends where these “shortfalls” for Dems are located. In some states could make huge difference, in others none.
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Yes, she is winning the election. It is drat plus 8. Better than the obumbler. Ad did you know the Second Gentleman is a sexxxx symbol too? He is the secret weapon of the campaign.
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She does not need to campaign because she is so far ahead. How did I miss that ?
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Kamala Harris told the media she was going to try to troll former President Donald Trump at the Alabama-Georgia game on Saturday.
But the effort failed miserably and just showed how desperate she was.
Her campaign told the media that they were going to have a small plane fly over Tuscaloosa during the game at Bryant-Denny Stadium with a banner that said, “Trump’s Punting on 2nd Debate.”
Except it didn’t come off; it was a complete failure. It was nowhere to be seen during the game.
According to the New York Times, they were told by the Harris campaign that they couldn’t do it because of “weather.”
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Didn’t Trump accept the debate on Fox and it was Kamala who refused?
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I don’t know why she is begging for a 2nd debate (ever since the first).
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New T-Rex discovered…
The newly-discovered dinosaur species lived in what is now Mexico during the Campanian age of the Cretaceous period, some 72.5 million years ago.
Named Labocania aguillonae, the ancient predator was at least 6.3 m (21 feet) in length — relatively small by tyrannosaur standards.
“Tyrannosaurs dominated as apex predators in the Late Cretaceous of western North America (Laramidia),” said Dr. Héctor Rivera-Sylva of the Museo del Desierto and Dr. Nicholas Longrich from the University of Bath.
“During the Cenomanian and Turonian ages (100 to 89 million years ago), tyrannosaurs were relatively small, unspecialized, and low in diversity.”
I think Walt once had a baby one as a pet, but was forced to give it up when it reached 2 tons.
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Trump at 49% at Predictit
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
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AP is a joke…
“Trump’s brand of populist nationalism leans heavily on his dark rendering of America as a failing nation abused by elites and overrun by Black and brown immigrants. But his supporters, especially white cultural conservatives, hear in that rhetoric an optimistic patriotism encapsulated by the slogan on his movement’s ubiquitous red hats: “Make America Great Again.”
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John Kerry, who ran for President, wants to do away with the 1st Amendment
“Our First Amendment stands as a major block to the ability to be able to hammer [disinformation] out of existence. What we need is to win…the right to govern by hopefully winning enough votes that you’re free to be able to implement change.”
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Awww….
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My view of her as a ditzy woke airhead had not changed, however.
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Primanti is getting a lot of blowback…
https://x.com/primantibros/status/1840072996838334971
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A breakdown of the nbc/ telemundo pole mentioned earlier:
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Other findings in the Telemundo poll.
NBC News / Telemundo poll of Hispanic voters finds…
Trump leading by 9 among Hispanic men under 50.
Asked who would be better on immigration among all Hispanic voters, Trump leads Harris by 13 points.
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Another cookie poll. This one is from Lochel’s Bakery in Hatboro, Pa (a suburb of Philly). And according to the latest numbers of cookies sold….Trump 12,558/Harris 889.
And this is happening in Pennslyvania….
https://www.channel3000.com/news/shareable-stories/pennsylvania-hatboro-lochels-bakery-election-cookie-poll-trump-harris/article_8fbc3410-7e90-51f1-836a-6864efd48245.html#1
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From The Center Square, MSN (whatever that is)…
“As more polls flow in since the presidential debate, battleground North Carolina increases in likelihood to favor Republican former President Donald Trump over Democrat and Vice President Kamala Harris’.
Sunday morning, the RealClear Polling edge for Trump was up to 1.4% with no margin of error factored in for polls it puts in the equation from Sept. 11 thru Wednesday. Trump has mostly recently led polling by Fox News 50%-49% and Rasmussen Reports 49%-46%, and was deadlocked at 49% in a CNN poll”.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-polling-lead-grows-in-north-carolina/ar-AA1rpr58?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=f00097cdd33e4dc197eae2258bb33620&ei=29
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More breakdown
What stands out is the virtual doubling of support 18-34 demographic
https://x.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1840377801603510636/photo/1
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Has Biden yet to do a flyover of the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene in FL, GA, NC, SC, TN–you know he IS the president? Has he issued any statement? Been on national TV to do a nationwide address to reassure those folks that help is on the way, give them su=ome reassurance?
Biden failed to prevent hurricane Helene from devastating the U.S. Just like he failed to prevent the flood of illegals from devastating the U.S.
*********************
Funny what one bearded person (late 30s-to-40-ish) interviewed in Asheville, NC said about the floodwaters.
TV reporter: What do you have to say about this historic flood that is worse to hit Asheville in over 100 years?
Citizen: It just shows we have to do more about global warming because these kind of storms are happening over and over again lately.
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Dems believe: misinformation = anything we don’t agree with
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f my thing about those Telemundo numbers; in 2016 and 2020, the Dem top line nearly matched their exit figures. Whereas Trump picked up almost all of the undecided. Would be interesting to see if that is the case this time around.
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I think this interview was good.
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Let’s hope Trump was being truthful when he said he learned a lot from the meeting with Zelensky.
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Indeed, Kamala is in trouble in Pennsylvania. She’s desperately trying to pick off Georgia or NC to offset that loss.
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On that topic, just last night, I went into a downscale grocery outlet to pick up some oranges for cocktail use (it was closer than going to a normal outlet, although I could have paid twice as much as While foods two blocks the other way). Almost all Hispanic inside, and the staff was entirely Hispanic. The man in front of me at the register was telling of his woes, and grateful that he had found this place because he had to pay so much for groceries elsewhere. The Latina cashier told him that she hoped people were paying attention to the “Presidential,” because their community was being “hit so hard.” The girl sweeping the floor a few feet away blurted out “Votar por Donald Trump!,” along with the guy washing the window. The cashier smiled once the customer made it clear he was onboard as well; four Latinxs for Trump! Of course, this is in Southern California, so it won’t help him much here, but it does signal that there is considerable frustration with the Democrats.
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I took it to mean that he wanted to know more about the battlefield. Trump was cut off from intelligence briefings by demented. Since getting the nomination, he has refused the intelligence briefings due to leaks.
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I also took it to mean that there will be a peace deal. I don’t think Ukraine gets the same deal that the slob pm and demented blew up.
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Trump Rally today, eerie pa (2 pm est).
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PA+GA+AZ+NV offsets a loss of NC 271-267, Nevada again being a key
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I told you he is the gift thst keeps on giving.
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I don’t think Ukraine gets the same deal that the slob pm and demented blew up.”
Let’ s hope not. That was not a “deal” it was a demand for unilateral surrender.
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And video:
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Poor Nc, eveyrhing is flooded and no aid or assistance in site.
Katrina 2.0.
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How much you want to bet that the MSM and Harris/Waltz blame Trump for both the flood, and for the lack of response from the government.
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Funny
https://x.com/SamJuneau/status/1840419219059495417/photo/1
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It’s like cooper and demented Harris did not pre position assets in.
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Walz is a classless turd.
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How much you want to bet that the MSM and Harris/Waltz blame Trump for both the flood, and for the lack of response from the government.”
Its actually DeSantis’ fault.
He didn’t stop the hurricane from advancing from Florida.
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What Harris/Walz care about is taxing people to the gills, collecting that revenue and giving it away to their own nanny state causes and foreign entities. As for assistance from natural catastrophes like floods, border security, erosion of citizen safety they could care less.
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McCormick seems to have plenty of money for ads. He is swamping Casey like 3-1.
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Not here. It is 3-1 Casey here.
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Trump and Harris running about even.
Finally saw an ad for DePasquale (a scumbag) for AG. So far had only seen Dave Sunday ads.
Watching the President’s Cup, the US on track to win.
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Demented is on the beach.
Quemala just retune from somewhere and she is in SF.
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McCormick is skewering Casey on immigration and voting 99% with Biden
Casey’s response: well, I did vote for a bill that didn’t pass.
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I could make it to Erie by Thursday if I took my Sunday horse, I wish Tina had let me know earlier about the rally.
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Trump was throwing popcorn boxes and other food to the crowd at the stadium last night.
It is populism at its worst but whatever works I guess.
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Dueling rallies going on today – one in PA with Trump and another large alternative one in DC, supporting the Trump/Vance ticket, highlighted by Tulsi Gabbard and Bobby Kennedy. The Republican ticket has evolved into a very interesting coalition bound by a resistance to censorship and those opposing free speech, like John Kerry.
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Well, when you broaden the party to embrace isolationism, oppose free trade, abandon America’s strategic interests in Europe, and anti-vax loon Democrats, you get bigger rallies.
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LOL
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Well, when you broaden the party to embrace isolationism, oppose free trade, abandon America’s strategic interests in Europe,”
That kind of “broadening” lost my vote but as Janzam said, the votes from people like me are not needed, there are enough isolationists to cover any deficit.
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It seems the real isolationists are Bitter and Jason who are against broadening the numbers in our party, as they support borrowing money to broaden unaudited funding given to an overseas country.
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According to aides that spoke to CNN, Tim Walz is having a hard time keeping his nerves under control for Tuesday’s debate with JD Vance. Aides say Walz has expressed a lack of confidence in his ability to go up against a “trained lawyer-type” like Vance”
I sympathize.
I always worry here about going up against a trained lawyer-type like Bitter but I rise to the challenge.
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an overseas country.”
That is one description.
Or you could call it:
Ukraine, a country of 40 million people and vast resources being invaded by a major geopolitical foe, with huge implications for world stability and our strategic alliances.
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A victory for free speech and strong borders in another country. We certainly don’t have strong borders, and am rapidly losing free speech, especially if Harris/Walz wins the election in 37 days:
RadioGenoa
@RadioGenoa
Austria’s Freedom Party (FPO) won Sunday’s general election with 30% of vote. European patriots are waking up everywhere. Europe belongs to Europeans.
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Bitter and Jason who are against broadening the numbers in our party”
Zzzz….
I am no longer a Republican and have zero interest in a party that is isolationist and against free trade.
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I think Walz is working overtime to lower expectations. If he manages not to cower into a fetal position and can speak in anything more than grunts and mono syllabic expressions, he’ll be declared the victor.
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”Ukraine, a country of 40 million people”
That’s a pre-war number not today’s population, which is far less because of those fleeing war-torn turmoil, conscription tactics, and an unknown death tally. Even if Ukrainian citizens want to end the war with a peace agreement (something the majority polled want) warmongers will not give in, wanting to send more to the front lines to die or be maimed. How many Ukrainians do you fellows want killed before peace (mocked as surrendering) is negotiated?
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I doubt the “Freedom Party” (which probably believes in freedom as much as the “Freedom Caucus”) will be able to form a government. The conservatives that came in second had this to say about the “Freedom Party”
Kickl’s main rival, incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer of the People Party (ÖVP), has said it’s “impossible to form a government with someone who adores conspiracy theories”.
The projections, based on initial results, give Kickl’s party 28.9% – almost three points ahead of the conservative People’s Party on 26.23%, but far short of a majority.
The Freedom Party (FPÖ) has been in coalition before, but the second-placed conservative People’s Party has refused to take part in a government led by Kickl.
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Walz will resort to a folksy kind of person, lovable in demeanor while devoid of substance. The MSM will only report on how “middle American” he is, skipping over anything relating to his left wing policy stances.
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That’s a pre-war number not today’s population, which is far less because of those fleeing war-torn turmoil, conscription tactics, and an unknown death tally”
Damm, Janzam admits the Russians are war criminals?
Baby steps, baby steps.
Yes, the Russians have caused millions of Ukrainians to be displaced and exiled.
Yes, the Russians have caused the death of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians.
The question you should be asking yourself is how many more Ukrainians do you want to see killed, maimed, tortured, raped and exiled before you stop supporting Putin?
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Has Janzam answered yet how much of Ukraine’s sovereign territory she is willing to give up to the invaders and how many million Ukrainians does she think is acceptable to be enslaved by Russia?
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I’m seeing these posts all over X.
I think they are just trying to lower the bar for Walz.
BREAKING: New leaks indicate that Tim Walz is in shambles and considering backing out of the debate altogether.
NEW: Tim Walz is very “nervous” heading into the debate with JD Vance
“Walz constantly comes back to how worried he is about letting Harris down.” (CNN)
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something the majority polled want”
Everyone would like to see peace.
But polling has been very constant that Ukrainians do not want to surrender to the Russians and that they want to WIN the war.
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Sorry GF…… I didn’t see your post.
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Yeah, that’s a setup; pros don’t telegraph weakness in advance.
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Take it with a grain of salt.
Walz won’t back out of the debate, he knows that would be fatal.
He is only trying to lower expectation and make himself the underdog.
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Doltz won’t back out. It’s attention he campaign needs.
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I hope this policy difference will be addressed in Tuesday’s VP debate:
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/rebeccadowns/2024/09/29/exclusive-education-piece-n2645452
”Not only is school choice a popular issue, and one that has been bipartisan, but a poll from Real Clear Opinion Research found that 76 percent of voters say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports school choice. This includes 86 percent of Republicans, 77 percent of Democrats, and 67 percent of Independents. Eighty percent of black Americans are also more likely to vote for a pro-school choice candidate.
A statement from Anthony J. de Nicola, the chairman of Invest in Education Coalition, emphasized the differences between the vice presidential candidates. “American families deserve leadership in Washington that supports empowering parents and creating opportunities for every student regardless of zip code. The contrast could not be clearer: J.D. Vance supports parental choice and K-12 educational freedom, and Tim Walz does not.”
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The U.S. is giving weapons that were destined to be replaced.
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That’s a pre-war number not today’s population, which is far less because of those fleeing war-torn turmoil, conscription tactics, and an unknown death tally caused 100% by Putin’s invasion and war crimes.
Fixed it.
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New Thread at 4:30. No polls or substance.
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Yikes.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/09/29/as-chaos-unfolds-jaw-droppingly-incompetent-exclusive-interview-with-north-carolina-governor-roy-cooper/
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