According to new polling by University of Mary Washington taken Sept. 3-9 against 756 LV:
 | VIRGINIA |
| Trump | 46 |
| Harris | 48 |
| Full ballot: | |
| Trump | 46 |
| Harris | 47 |
| RFK | 2 |
| Other | 2 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Cao | 43 |
| Kaine | 49 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Virtual tie in Virginia
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
96 responses to “Virtual tie in Virginia”
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segundo. Like Komrade Kamala
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Wow, that poll, right or wrong, will be shaking up some campaign strategies.
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DW, is RFK on the ballot in VA. I doubt he gets 2% even if he is.
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9-3 to 9-9?
What took it so long?
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they were probably thinking about spiking it jason, just like the August Selzer poll that had Trump way ahead of Kamala. They flushed it rather than release it.
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Again, Matt Towery of Insider Advantage stated last night…”I don’t see Kamala Harris with a 4 or 5 point lead in any of the battleground states…nor do I believe it”….an obvious dig at the Morning Consult’s con job-oh, excuse me, their polls.
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oh wow, it seems RCP has decided to not include the Morning Consult polls.
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Rich Baris The People’s Pundit@Peoples_Pundit
·
7m
Now Mary Washington will be blacklisted by tiny crystal balls because they don’t have a gross DEM lean.
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Harris drops 2 points in latest RMG Poll
National poll by RMG Research
🟦 Harris: 50% [-1]
🟥 Trump: 48% [+1]
[+/- change vs 9/9-12]
——
Trends
Aug. 28 – 🔵 Harris +3
Sept. 5 – 🔵 Harris +2
Sept. 12 – 🔵 Harris +4
Sept. 19 – 🔵 Harris +2
— 60 (2.3/3.0) | 2,969 LV | 9/16-19 | ±1.8%
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Interesting:
Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., said Thursday that former President Donald Trump has created a special bond with Pennsylvanians following the assassination attempt against him July 13 and that he will be formidable to defeat in November.
Trump was struck in the right ear by a bullet fired from about 130 yards away by Thomas Matthews Crooks, 20, who killed a spectator and seriously injured two others at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, before a Secret Service countersniper killed him. It was the first of two assassination attempts against Trump in the past two months. The other was Sunday in West Palm Beach, Florida.
“Trump has created a special kind of a hold … and he’s remade the party, and he has a special kind of place in Pennsylvania,” Fetterman said Thursday to a crowd at The Atlantic Festival in Washington, D.C., according to The Hill. “And I think that only deepened after that first assassination attempt.”
Pennsylvania is seen as a must-win state for Trump to return to the White House. The Cook Political Report rates the state as a toss-up while the FiveThirtyEight polling average has Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris ahead by 1.4 percentage points (48.2%-46.8%).
Trump’s support in the state has remained strong even after he was twice impeached, indicted in four criminal cases, and survived two assassination attempts.
“What’s left?” Fetterman is now wondering.
“I also want people to understand, you know, and it’s not science, but there is, there’s energy, and there’s kinds of anger on the ground in Pennsylvania, and people are very committed and strong,” Fetterman said, according to The Hill. “Trump is going to be strong and … we have to respect that.”
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Quemala is collapsing. It’s been like that since the debate.
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Fetterman predicted that trump,would win pa. This was when quemala announced the vp.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/bombshell-transcripts-trump-fact-ordered-national-guard-january/
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Fetterman didn’t want Shapiro.
PHILADELPHIA — Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman is concerned about the possibility that Vice President Kamala Harris might choose his state’s governor, Josh Shapiro, as her running mate, and his advisers have privately relayed those worries to Harris’ team, according to three people familiar with the conversations.
Fetterman’s advisers suggested to Harris’ team that the senator believes that Shapiro is excessively focused on his own personal ambitions.”
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Any “bombshell” by Gateway Pundit is probably a dud.
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It will probably be followed by the “Zelensky bought the Taj Mahal with US taxpayer money” bombshell, and then the “cuddly kittens and adorable puppies LOVE Vladimir Putin” bombshell.
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Liz Harrington
@realLizUSA
·
1h
GREAT NEWS!
GA State Election Board passes 3-2 resolution 181-1-12-.12
HAND COUNT at precinct level to ensure the totals match with the machines
This is a HUGE win and was opposed by the Fake News, the Left, and Raffensperger
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I thought Oprah was upset that a store clerk wanted her to buy a $3000 purse instead of one that was $15,000.
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Never too late for some justice.
BREAKING: The Israeli airstrike against Beirut targeted & killed Ibrahim Aqeel. He was one of the 2 most senior Hezbollah commanders. On September 20th 1983, 17 Americans were killed in a suicide bombing against the U.S. Embassy in Beirut. Aqeel was one of the masterminds.
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Oprah said she was walking through an airport and a black man told her he was voting for Trump.
I think the odds of Oprah walking through an airport are even lower than the existence of the Deep State, and that is pretty low.
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Bill to increase Trump protection passes house 450-0.
Nobody had the balls to vote against it, I guess.
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Damm, Tony Dungy tears Kamala a new one on abortion. I hope he doesn’t need his commentator salary.
“Dear VP Harris: I hear you make this statement all the time. Exactly what “faith” are you talking about when you say you don’t have to abandon it to support abortion? Are you talking about the Christian faith that says all babies are made in the image of God (Gen 1:26), that God places them in the womb (Jer 1:5) and that we should not take any life unjustly (Luke 18:20)? Are you talking about that faith or some nebulous, general “faith” that says we’re good enough, and smart enough to make our own decisions? What “faith” are you talking about?”
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Never elected to anything, Jill Biden is running the Country. And the Dems say Trump is a “threat to Democracy “
https://x.com/jpodhoretz/status/1837170100639781111?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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Nebraska may go winner take all.
For Maine, it is too late.
https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/breaking-surprising-development-in-maine-greatly-narrows-kamala-harris-path-to-victory-mstef/?utm_medium=agg&utm_source=economics
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Jill Biden “kicks off cabinet meeting”
Really, you can’t make this sh-t up.
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Trump ad messaging has been highly effective these last few weeks. These ads have been great.
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Every time I see Trump compared to Reagan it reminds me of how little there is to compare.
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The same pollster had Biden plus 17 in Va in Sept 2020.
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I guess we owe the Israelis a $7 million check.
Israel killed a top Hezbollah figure who was wanted by the U.S. for his role in the 1983 bombings of the U.S. Embassy and a Marine Corps barracks that killed 300 people, the Israeli military confirmed Friday.
Hezbollah’s operations commander, Ibrahim Aqil, was the subject of a $7 million State Department reward for information leading to his arrest.”
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Today’s polls narrowed Kamala’s lead at Predictit by 2 points and at Polymarket by 3.
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DW, is this a concern?
https://hotair.com/headlines/2024/09/20/virginia-yes-you-can-still-vote-with-a-noncitizen-id-card-n3794747
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jason, here are the Virginia ID rules:
https://www.elections.virginia.gov/media/formswarehouse/voter-id/outreach-materials/documents/Voter-Identification-Chart—Revised-08.23.2023.pdf
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Refresh your page and check the senate grid. Moreno is closing fast, down only 2, and just begging for more polling, and new the dashboard is HUNG CAO! Now within 9 and closing….
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That’s great that Moreno is closing in. I could never understand how Ohio keeps returning an ultra liberal like Sherrod Brown to the Senate. It’s insane.
Not as insane as the Morning Consult poll saying Allred is leading in Texas!!!!HAHAHAHHAHAHA that made me spit coffee out my nose.
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my guess is that it might have been Morning Consult Texas poll that was the data point too far for RCP and that’s why they were booted out.
There is no point to doing poll aggregation if there is no mechanism to deal with agenda polling. RCP has chosen to just be selective on which pollsters to include.
Our approach here is simply to include ALL polls in the polling history, but then account for outliers and junk polls by weighting the percentage of the share each poll has in the average. Not re-weighting the poll itself–using the actual numbers, but saying okay, you have obvious junk, so your poll only gets 2% of the share in the collection that makes up the average.
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Did the nurse kill demented?
This is a coup, right!
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As to the senate numbers, here is my current take:
WV: this gets us automatically to 48.
FL, TX, MT: These three are pretty well baked in, getting the GOP to 51.
OH: I am confident Moreno gets across the finish line bringing the total to 52.
WI: Hovde has a real shot at pulling a Ron Johnson and getting us to 53. I would give it a 50/50 chance right now.
PA: McCormick is running a great campaign, but its tough to get rid of Casey. I would put his chances just a little below Hovde.
MD: Hogan’s making it a ball game, but you don’t win all ball games. He’s been fading and probably comes up short.
AZ: Lake is this cycle’s Angle.
MI: Slotkin seems to be pulling away a bit, and its going to be tough for Rogers to close the gap.
NV: Brown just cannot get any traction and Rosen seems to be in good shape.
VA: Hung Cao is the one I am watching closely. The race feels like Gillespie/Warner, where the Dem favorite is in cruise control all summer, and then when fall arrives, suddenly there are panicked phone calls to the Dem national senatorial committee begging for help. Warner held on barely in the end, as Kaine probably will, but don’t be surprised on election night if Cao is low single digits behind.
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Biden is providing a useful service right now. How?
He is moribund. A corpse. Rigor mortis has set it. He is forgotten and done. His job approval and personal favorability is locked in and cannot be changed at this point.
He provides a service because you can tell if a national poll is garbage if they suddenly show Biden’s numbers drastically improving.
But you really are not seeing his numbers improve–what you are seeing is the thumb of the media pollster on the scale to help Harris’ topline number against Trump. They reweight their polls to help Harris, but they cannot do so without artificially pumping up Biden’s numbers.
He is really providing a useful purpose.
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TBH its very sad. We all knew this was going to happen when he was “elected”. He was not cognitively all there even in 2020, a shell of his former self (which was a pretty nothing soft shell to start)…now…he’s obviously ill and my guess within a year it will be revealed he’s full on Alzheimer’s and within 2 years pass away.
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I agree Vic. He hasn’t looked well for quite a while. That last interview after his debate debacle was difficult to watch. “I’m on the horse!”
If Trump loses, his biggest mistake will have been agreeing to an early debate. Very dumb. Should have waited to debate until it was too late to replace him.
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Regarding the senate, these things seem to move in tandem. A good night for Trump and the GOP might pick up, besides MT and OH, PA, WI, maybe NV and MD.
I actually think McCormick has a better shot than Hovde.
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George
@BehizyTweets
BREAKING: In-person voting is officially underway in Virginia, and it looks like Trump-supporting patriots have flooded the polls. Meanwhile, there’s ZERO Democrat enthusiasm If Trump wins Virginia. He wins everything A new poll shows that the race is a statistical tie. If Governor Youngkin and Attorney General Jason Miyares do their job to secure the vote, Trump will carry the state.
I couldn’t post the pictures…but, it looked like a festival of Trump voters outside the voting place, complete with banners, flags and excited people.
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McCormick is running a slew of ads using Casey’s words against him. On the economy and on immigration especially.
He shows Casey saying the Inflation Control Act will be down prices and Casey saying on infrastructure “go big or go home”.
Hard hitting ads.
Casey says McCormick is from NJ, made money from fentanyl, and opposes abortion (via PACs)
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Would Harris becoming president help her or not help her?
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At this point it would not help.
She would immediately have to at least pretend to be President and that would hurt her campaigning.
It would be seen as a gimmick, even the MSM wouldn’t be able to sell it.
Remember, she is on record like 2 months ago saying Biden was fine.
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Not sure how serious we should take this…..but
Mathew Boyle on X:
Sources familiar with Maine politics telling me the presidential statewide and the Senate race are tightening very quickly. Massive influx of cash from all sides pouring into the state. Dem panic underway. If Trump has a shot statewide in Maine, Harris is in very big trouble.
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On Maine, quemala wanted the legislature to do winner take all. It won’t happen. However, in Nebraska, there could be a change.
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McCormick is a good candidate. In hindsight, a better candidate than Oz, who beat him by 900 votes. At the time I thought McCormick was too vulnerable on the China connections and he didn’t have Trump’s endorsement, a double whammy.
Still, it might have been for the better. Fetterman won by such a large margin it is likely he would have won against McCormick too, and thus “burned” McCormick as a future candidate.
McCormick, win or lose, is the best the GOP could have put up in PA. Casey might win, but he will have to sweat it out.
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I think it would hurt her because then people would realize she’s also been running the country the last four years and it would click for people that she’s not new at all. She’s what got us to this ness
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Sometimes the dam breaks in elections one way or another.
The MSM tried hard the last 10 days to pretend it had broken in Kamala’s favor.
But maybe it is the opposite.
Good vibes for Trump today.
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I think it would hurt her because then people would realize she’s also been running the country the last four years”
I don’t think anybody really thinks SHE was running the country but I get your point.
As President, she becomes the incumbent of the mess.
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Maybe, the debate worked out for trump. It’s about 10 days after it or so. Maybe a reason why quemala called for the second debate right away.
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Seems like if trump,had a strategery, it was not to look at her (invade her space) and target undecideds?
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If the election is more 2016 then Trump would have a shot at Maine, he only lost it by 3. In 2020, he got blown away by 9.
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I don’t think Trump had any debate strategy other than try to concentrate on the economy and immigration and punt everything else.
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The debate is old news now, anyway.
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It was going to be hard for quemala to claim that she is the fresh, new face, after 3.5 years of sheot.
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https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2024/09/20/nolte-exasperated-oprah-interrupts-to-answer-border-question-for-vapid-vp/
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I want to die sometimes.
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Jason, you could be right about McCormick being better shot that Hovde. Hopefully both will win.
Paul, nobody wants you to die, and you shouldn’t either. Even if Trump wins, you too will benefit from the economy he will help create. He won’t be like Harris. He won’t seek to put political enemies into prison.
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That Virginia poll is no fluke. Remember just last month Roanoke College had it just Harris +3 as did Quantus Polling.
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My wife’s firm is having a retreat/ meeting in Atlantic City. While she is having cocktail parties, meals and meetings with the partners and associates, I will be working in the room. I will go out at some point.
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I’ve watched a few John Wick movies, where the main character was besieged by people trying to kill him, always managing to escape multiple threats to his life. That’s why I thought the American Thinker article, comparing Wick’s feats/luck with Trump, seemed plausible.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/09/a_target_on_his_back_trump_as_the_new_john_wick.html
”You can practically hear the hundreds of lefty lunatics scrambling to gather guns, knives, bombs, poisons, deadly gas, and anything else they can think of to use in their efforts to ‘get Trump.’ Trump is now like John Wick in the movie John Wick 2. For the uninitiated, John Wick was a master assassin who violated the ‘code of ethics’ of his brotherhood. As punishment, the leaders of the brotherhood put out a contract on him and hundreds of professional assassins raced to be the first one to kill John Wick and collect millions in bounty.”
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Mets set a franchise record for scoring 10 runs in each of the last three games. Tonight? In true Mets form, they probably get no-hit, and lose 10-0.
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It’s being reported that in Virginia, the EV has been extremely robust on day one, but it is reportedly very high State wide and not only in heavily Dem leaning districts.
Eric Daugherty on X
Well with the crazy VA turnout going on today there are about 3 scenarios:
1) It’s Democrats who decided to not vote by mail this year (doubt it)
2) Early voting is just more accepted by both Rs and Ds now and this won’t tell us much (more likely)
3) Republicans and right-leaning indies who maybe haven’t voted before are storming the polls because they heard VA may be in-play (possible)
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Imagine that…..
BREAKING: ABC, CBS, and NBC News coverage of former President Trump was found to be 95% negative following the second attempt on his life, according to a Media Research Center analysis.
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Real Political Data on X:
In response to Dems saying that high turnout benefits Dems.
How many times do we have to go down this route?
It isn’t 2008 where Republicans were begging for 5% turnout to win elections. We’ve entered a completely new era with Trump that flips conventional wisdom with higher turnout usually being good news for Republicans, while lower turnout is usually good news for Democrats.
Reason being is Democrats are the party of high propensity voters that vote in every single election (we see this in low turnout off year elections) while Republicans (especially Trump) are the party of low propensity voters that will crush you if they actually vote.
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And with early voting under way, we are now in the polling season where some pollsters think to ask how people have already voted…sort of like exit polling.
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Great pitching matchup tonight. Final score 3-1. Not sure who wins. Side prediction – Phillies leave a lot of runners on base.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/kamala-harris-holds-georgia-rally-ballroom-cobb-energy/
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Just watched snippets from the Ophray/Kamala ‘joyful lovefest’ 2.0. This was an obvious attempt to recapture the vibes from the DNC. Sometimes you just go overboard and it backfires….such as the the case here.
In a country that has suffered enough with inflation, the border crisis and two wars that is depleting America of its treasure just that this was a pathetic exhibition of the tired syrup that comes from people completely out of step with everyday people.
To borrow from the 80’s Valley Girls….gag me with a spoon.
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Final Virginia Early Voting Update – Most counties now over their first day 2020 EV numbers and on track for huge EV total today. Dem strongholds performing well but biggest surprise is heavy Trump districts also turning out in record numbers showing GOP EV drive is paying off
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If Trump wins, I die.
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well that was quick
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Phillies had bases loaded with no outs and only get 1 run. Ugh.
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We’ll miss you.
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Paul, Trump will be president of everyone, and you will thrive too.
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I believe that DW and Vic are good men. That is why it saddens me that if I saw them stranded on the side of the road surrounded by wolves and Democrats, I would have to drive by them without stopping. I would expect the same from them. No mercy in fandom.
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and then depression set in…
so much for the playoffs
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If I don’t vote for Trump I don’t have to feel bad when Paul dies?
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Harris campaign once again asking for a second debate. I don’t know much about these things, but if I were the campaign that was ahead, I don’t think I’d be asking for a debate in which my Candidate might make a major gaffe. If I were winning, I’d just ride it out until Election Day.
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Daugherty misspells his last name.
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Nope no second debate. With respect to the Al-abc debate, a Sec complaint has been filed. It will be interesting to see what that Congress person finds.
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Besides, quemala turned down 2 of 3 debates. Faux was supposed to,get one, and Cn and n the other.
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some notable quotes from the focus group: 1. “If you look at the statistics now, we’re far worse now than we were before. Everything is worse now with Biden and Harris.” 2. “Even though Trump didn’t make all the right choices, the economy just worked better under him. I think it was the overall business mindset that helped.” 3. “She kept saying that she’s a warrior but I don’t think she is a warrior.” 4. “If you put her next to Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton, it’s like there’s no comparison. They would eat her up.”
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New thread loaded for 10:00 pm (time zone that matters).
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Trump could agree for a debate on Fox moderated by Hannity and Ingram.
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