According to Pan Atlantic Research, 9/5-9/15; 812 LV; MoE ±3.5
 | MAINE |
| Trump | 41 |
| Harris | 50 |
| CD-01 | |
| Harris | 58 |
| Trump | 32 |
| CD-02 | |
| Harris | 42 |
| Trump | 49 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
111 responses to “Harris up 9 in Maine, Trump up 7 in ME-02”
Frist!
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Trump tanking at Polymarket
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1726687380387
Stephen Green also baffled
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/09/18/harris-keeps-embarrassing-herself-and-improving-in-the-damn-polls-n4932621
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The reason is we can analyze how bad the agenda polling is all we want, the fact is the majority of the public gets its news from left wing MSM sources.
And the meme is “Harris gaining” “Harris gaining with key groups” “Harris gaining in swing states”.
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Here was the result of the last internal Teamsters poll that was done September 9-15. Not sure what the difference is between undecided and don’t know.
Trump: 58%Harris: 31%Undecided: 6%Dont know: 5%
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According to CNN…the internal polls with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters had Trump @ 60% and Harris @34% with 6% undecided.
A straw poll prior to Biden’s exit had the IBT favoring Biden at 44% and Trump at 34%.
The IBT endorsed Biden in 2020 and Hillary in 2016 and of course Obama.
Here’s the kicker…Walz is a former union member while a school teacher.
This is huuuuuuuuuuuuuuge-as I stated in a previous thread.
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I love Maine. Went up there in August 2021 (Ogunquit). Beautiful!
Out to breakfast one morning, one customer comes in with an “I’m Vaccinated” hat on. She was shown the booth beside me and my wife and son. I told her “I feel the need to inform you that my wife and I chose to not get the Wuhan Flu vaccine, we have questions about its short-term efficacy as well as its long-term dangers.”
She requested to be moved. She was told she would have to wait for the next available table, as it was very busy. She agreed.
Next time I saw her, I was up paying the bill and her party were just ordering. I made sure to let her know “Safety First!”.
Ok, maybe I am a bit of an instigator.
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Harris becomes the first Democratic Presidential Nominee to NOT receive the Teamsters endorsement, since Michael Dukakis in 1988.
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Many Teamsters are truck drivers. The green new deal would kill a lot of their jobs.
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No tax on ot and social security sealed it for trump.
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Actually, to correct my post above. I don’t think they endorsed Bill Clinton either.
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“Many Teamsters are truck drivers. The green new deal would kill a lot of their jobs.”
-Not so sure about that. Have spoken with several drivers here and there. Couple of them said that their leadership, when faced with questions about that, were told that since the new electric trucks would most likely be able to carry less freight, that MORE TRUCKS would be needed, hence more drivers, and their jobs were safe.
I asked them both “And you believe that?”
Both hedged a bit but said they were in a good union, and accepted their reasoning.
I have not asked about the current election cycle.
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Patrick Basham, Democracy Institute Polling Director, on the just released Teamsters Poll.
”A harbinger of a disappointing election for the Democratic candidate”
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were told that since the new electric trucks would most likely be able to carry less freight, that MORE TRUCKS would be needed, hence more drivers, and their jobs were safe”
They are dreaming. The plan is for the electric trucks to also be driverless on the long distance hauling, and only have drivers for the very urban part. Maybe your drivers do that kind of work, but the future of drivers on the interstates is bleak.
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“How it would work: Many automated trucking developers envision the use of transfer hubs, where cargo trailers would be handed off between humans and robots.
What they’re saying: Drivers displaced by autonomous trucks could find work closer to home on short-haul routes, or even in newly created logistics jobs at transfer hubs, AT developers say.
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Don’t listen to her.
“I think she’s going to walk a very thin line: Loyalty matters, and yet she’s also going to show what she’s going to do to address issues that are on peoples’ minds,” said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.).
Dingell had been a lonely voice as she warned her party about Hillary Clinton’s struggles in Michigan in 2016 against Trump. And said she was still “worried” about Harris’ standing: “We’re a purple state,” she told us. “We’re tied. I don’t care what anybody else says.”
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Vance: “None of us consented to importing millions of illegals. We’re allowed, Kamala Harris, as Americans to tell our political leaders they’re doing a bad job. We’re not bad people, Kamala Harris, for loving this country. You’re a bad person, Kamala Harris, for doing this to our country in the first place.”
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Most idiotic take ever?
Cenk Uygur
@cenkuygur
Now Israel has blown up walkie talkies in Lebanon. Buyer beware: If you buy anything from Israel it might have a bomb in it. I don’t see how anyone would ever trust an Israeli made product aga
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Still waiting for anyone to tell me ONE demographic or ONE state they think Vance is going to help with, that was already not supporting Trump.
I can tell you with whom and where Youngkin would have helped. Haley. DeSantis. Reynolds.
Vance? I am stumped.
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agreed jason, on Vance and his lack of helping the ticket. Doesn’t mean I cannot enjoy a good quote of his.
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Scott Rasmussen
@ScottWRasmussen
·
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28% of Democrats say America would have been better off if @RealDonaldTrump had been assassinated. Another 24% are not sure. Fewer than half (48%) of Democrats could bring themselves to say that America would not be better off if the opposing party’s candidate had been… Show more
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A comment is in moderation , Bl.
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Dow -103 following rate cut.
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Released
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thanks
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I Scooter, propose a new punishment for all convicted rapists and pedophiles.
Pocket Pagers……..as soon as the jury finds them guilty, just send them a message, and blow their nuts off !!!!!
Hope this doesn’t land me in moderation.
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NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 50% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 48%
Fox | Sept. 13-16 | N=876LV
Scooter
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BREAKING: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admits the massive influx of illegal immigrants under Biden and Harris has raised the unemployment rate.
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Actually relieved by the Fox poll. I was preparing a +3 for Harris after the debate. I thought if Harris was no more than +2 than Silver is correct….look for polls to return to the 50/50 margin.
And, this poll has just so many days of the second attempted assassination of Trump and obviously does not have the Teamsters a no go with Harris.
I can live with poll going today and now going forward.
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”Still waiting for anyone to tell me ONE demographic or ONE state they think Vance is going to help with, that was already not supporting Trump.”
Let me see – MI, PA, WI for starters. Basically, he will add rust belt voters, younger voters, middle class voters, and those who share circumstances of a childhood family headed by a grandparent, because their birth parents weren’t able to deal with the role 24/7. His story crisscrosses with Trump’s, augmenting more diverse demographics identifying with his background specifically, while leaning towards Trump’s policies generally. Just watching some of Vance’s campaign stops, his crisp interaction with a gotcha press, and the crowd’s growing fondness of him says it all, as to what a good partner he is on the ticket with Trump.
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Just watched a the CNN political panel about everything except the Teamsters with a no go with Harris.
Those panelists looked as if somebody had died. CNN is a Democrat politcal hack job during their so-called news cycle…at least Fox at the same will try to get a fair and balanced approach.
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Hope is not a plan.
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Faux poles are typicall bad for Rs and they are junky like Quinn poles.
I see it as maybe a 2 percent national lead (if that).
0.3% in the battleground.
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Aka he hates her.
Post
See new postsConversation
John Ocasio-Rodham Nolte
@NolteNC
The only person happier than Trump about the Teamsters choosing not to endorse Kamala is Joe Biden.
·
5,883
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Just saw the some of the cross tabs of the Fox poll….other than Trump getting 29% of the Black vote and just getting 6% of the male it makes sense.
Fox poll also said that Harris is losing the Battleground states.
Translation….this race is settling into 50/50 brawl and it will be determined in the Battleground states….
PS-This is just me but in my opinion….Trump-please do not debate Harris again….pay little attention to the national polls and the RNCC needs to match the Democrats with resource after resource in Pa, Wi, Mi, Nc, Ga, Az and Nv. as put forward by the Trafalgar and Insider Group recently…this group said it is now that the RNCC has to step up their game get the vote out like there it no tomorrow….which might be true.
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There won’t be anymore debate. It was strange why quemala asked for another one as the “winner.” But
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I think Trump should have agreed to another debate. He should have said, “I will debate and you can have Rachel Maddow, Laurence O’Donnell and Whoopi Goldberg as the moderators. Bring it!”
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agreed jason, on Vance and his lack of helping the ticket. Doesn’t mean I cannot enjoy a good quote of his.”
I don’t think he hurts the ticket, just doesn’t help.
Of course, Janzam wins the HHR Clown of the day with this nonsense
“Basically, he will add rust belt voters, younger voters, middle class voters”
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“Basically, he will add rust belt voters, younger voters, middle class voters”
I guess the question is since this didn’t happen yet, when is it going to happen?
Of course, he could add my vote in the debate with Walz if he renounces Ron Paul’s foreign policy.
Not optimistic.
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PS-This is just me but in my opinion….Trump-please do not debate Harris again”
I think this is good advice.
He can win a debate but he can’t win the debate spin.
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Vance doesn’t need the vote of a one-issue “fool.”
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Vance adds the all important Trump supporter demographic.
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already diehard Trump supporter demographic.
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Vance adds the all important Trump supporter demographic”
Yep that was calculation. Solidify the base, the hell with trying to expand it.
We will know soon enough if that was smart or not.
As DW likes to say, Trump decided to try to win the hard way.
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DW, have you ever listened to Vance on one of his recent stops, engaging both the public and the press?
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Vance doesn’t need the vote of a one-issue “fool”.
Thanks for putting fool in quotes.
Actually, this is probably correct.
The number of votes Vance loses for being an isolationist is probably very small given that the Republican party has become protectionist and isolationist.
But again, I think the problem with Vance is not that he loses votes, it is that he doesn’t gain any.
When Trump was comfortably ahead, maybe it didn’t matter.
Now that the race is much more competitive, it might matter.
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engaging both the public and the press?”
Zzzz….
Vance is engaging “the choir”.
And he holds his own against a hostile press, but that won’t get him any favorable press, it just somewhat moots the negative.
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I don’t know anybody not voting for Trump that will now vote for him because of Vance. Not one. Nor do I see any evidence in polling or even anecdotally that there is this kind of voter.
I do know some people who might have viewed his candidacy more favorably had he picked someone like Youngkin or DeSantis or Scott or even Haley. Whether they would have actually voted for Trump is unknown, but Vance closed that door shut tight.
We will know very soon. But there is no doubt DW is correct, Trump made it harder for himself.
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Youngkin would have delivered Virginia, ending the election before 9 pm eastern
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Trump plans on winning with exact same number of votes as 2020. Bold strategy if it works.
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And without the vital discussion of cat ladies and eating pets.
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Trump plans on winning with exact same number of votes as 2020. Bold strategy if it works.”
Bold even if it doesn’t. Dumb even if it does.
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Youngkin would have delivered Virginia, ending the election before 9 pm eastern”
What, and deprives of us all this drama?
What are you, a drama hater?
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“Youngkin would have delivered Virginia, ending the election before 9 pm eastern”
-For 20 years, I’ve seen written countless times at HHR and now at Phoenix how a VP candidate can only hurt the top of the ticket, but now all of a sudden the VP would guarantee a win in a state lost by 5 & 10% by Trump.
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DeSantis, Youngkin, Scott, Vance, Cotton, Hawley….and I’ll throw Haley in there….all good young people ready to run in 2028.
Let’s just concentrate on Trump-Vance2024 for now.
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I am triggered by this:
Jack Poso
@JackPosobiec
BREAKING: TRUMP ANNOUNCES HE WILL VISIT SPRINGFIELD OH AND AURORA COLORADO
·
107.2K Views
-free passer
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yes VA is close right now. Youngkin would have been enough
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Harris x seems like the are on crack. 3 poles, 3 different results.
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OK bitter tomorrow it begins. Big series, obviously bigger for us than the Phillies,but now the Mets have a lead over Atlanta they need to maintain, and are even in the second spot, with SD in striking distance. If they can somehow find a way to win three of four…they could go into Atlanta with a 3 game lead…
Its getting interesting.
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Let’s just concentrate on Trump-Vance2024 for now.”
Translation: I was for Vance and I know he adds nothing to the ticket.
You can bet NYC would carry on the tradition of always trying to elect more Democrats.
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It’s a case of personal projection to say Youngkin would solidify VA, thus the election, while asserting Vance brings nothing to the table – especially from those who haven’t been following his performance growth accompanied by warm audience responses on the campaign trail. Furthermore, Youngkin was not nearly as endearing to grass roots conservatives, as they saw his late Trump endorsement as somewhat of a slight, as well as a too-little-too-late gesture of someone who really didn’t like Trump (a Kemp-like figure).
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So, is this saying that when Gallup pushed the Independents, they are finding a R+4 electorate?
GALLUP: In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent? (9/3-15)
🔵 Democrat: 30% [-1]
🔴 Republican: 29% [-1]
🟡 Independent: 40% [+1]
——
With independent leaners
🔴 Republican: 50% [+4]
🔵 Democrat: 45% [-4]
[+/- change vs August]
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Sorry, I meant R+5 electorate ?
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Another example of Jason injecting biting vitriol into a civil dialogue on a thread.
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Considering that the “grass roots conservatives” are Trump worshippers rather than conservatives, I still think Youngkin was a better choice.
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I just need the Phillies to win 2/4 in New York. What the Mets and Braves do after that is irrelevant to me. I have the Mets and Braves and wish there was a scenario where they both miss the playoffs.
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Not sure if this is a new poll, or if it’s been posted before.
2024 Georgia GE:
Trump 47% (+3)
Harris 44%
West 1%
Oliver 0%
Stein 0%
De la Cruz 0%
University of Georgia/@ajc, 1,000 LV, 9/9-15
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New Marist Swing State Polls
Swing States Poll:
MICHIGAN
Harris 52% (+5)
Trump 47%
.
WISCONSIN
Harris 50% (+1)
Trump 49%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Harris 49%
Trump 49%
Scooter
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Swing States Poll, Among Independents:
MICHIGAN
Harris 49% (+2)
Trump 47%
.
WISCONSIN
Harris 51% (+4)
Trump 47%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 49% (+4)
Harris 45%
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Those actually aren’t bad polls for Trump. Remember, Trump always overperforms in Wisconsin. So being 1 down in Wisconsin could easily mean he’s ahead there. Also tied in Pennsylvania while leading +4 with Indies. Not as bad as I was expecting it to be from Marist.
Marist September 2020 Pennsylvania poll had Biden +9.
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Grass roots conservatives are those who understand the stark binary choice available in 2024, & are actively putting in the work and time to see the worst of the two is not elected. There is really no “worshipping” involved, just awareness of which choice better reflects their own values. In supporting this choice they remain focused on the ticket and winning, rather than bickering about or weighing the benefits of other preferences who don’t matter anymore. Vance was an acceptable candidate for most of this group, and has only grown in favor and respect with many more by his grounded, common sense, forthright rhetoric. Also, IMO, he will draw in young democrats, independents, and those tired of establishment politicians when votes are finally cast, in greater numbers than most other VP candidates could have done – maybe even becoming the:”closer” in winning VA.
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https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/09/crying-shame.php
-But “isolationism” and “protectionism”…….
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As usual, well said, janz.
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“Those actually aren’t bad polls for Trump.”
-Agreed.
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Must be a slow news night (bad news for quemala) if the free passers are regurgitating the Vance as vp decision from. Months ago
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I don’t think you know any voters outside the cult.
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Slow news night indeed.
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Voting for Trump is not enough. Any conservative who does not worship Trump is a free passer.
– Cult Member
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No, I am curious about the regurgitation of Vance as vp choice 3 months ago.
There is a bit more current news out there. As examples:
No teamsters endorsement for quemala.
Secret service agent was 10 feet away from the Florida assassin when he shot at him.
or this: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harris-serves-up-word-salad-dc-speech-children-community?intcmp=tw_fnc
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And actually free passer is so triggered y Vance, that the free passer cannotmvote for trump.
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Trump on Gutfeld is more newsworthy that Vance as vp because the free passer is triggered by Vance. Here is the appearance:
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https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/path-to-the-white-house/scripps-news-ipsos-poll-majority-supports-mass-deportation-of-undocumented-immigrants
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The free passers will next be triggered by mass deportation of illegals.
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Zzzzzzzzz
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Hey, Cult Member. Name the posters at HHR who support illegals entering the U.S.
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Another pretty good poll for Trump
NATIONAL poll
🔴 Trump 47%
🔵 Harris: 47%
NYT/Siena | Sept. 11-16 | N=2,437LV
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General Election poll – Swing State’s
Arizona – 🔴 Trump +1
Georgia – 🔴 Trump +3
Michigan – 🔵 Harris +2
Nevada – 🟡 Tie
N. Carolina – 🔵 Harris +1
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump +1
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump +1
Emerson #B – LV – 9/17
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Trump +8 in Ras Daily Tracker !!!
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NYT/Sienna has National race tied but has Harris +4 in Pennsylvania. Not sure those two things are compatible. I would think a National tied race would favor Trump in the EC.
NYT/Siena: Harris 50% (+4) – Trump 46%
🔵 F&M” Harris 49% (+3) – Trump 46%
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new thread in 1 hour
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Eric Daugherty on X
NYT/SIENA POLL: Trump+9 in the Midwest (home to WI/MI).
In 2016, he won the Midwest by less than 5 points. In 2020, he won it by just 2 points.
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PENNSYLVANIA poll by @washingtonpost
2-WAY
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 48%
—
FULL FIELD
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
Senate (2-way)
🟦 Casey (inc): 48%
🟥 McCormick: 48%
—
Full field
🟦 Casey (inc): 47%
🟥 McCormick: 46%
🟪 Other: 2%
——
982 LV | 9/11-16 | MoE: ±3.6%
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Harris National Polling lead is at 1.9% on RCP. Not sure that’s gonna be enough.
Scooter
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So, joy is now below 2 percent nationally and trailing in swing states/battlegrounds?
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Another example of Jason injecting biting vitriol”
Thanks.
It’s nice to get some recognition.
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Also, IMO, he will draw in young democrats”
Hey Bitter, Vance is attracting “young Democrats” according to the Cultist.
I think we need to retire Tgca as the HHR Clown.
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Hey, Cult Member. Name the posters at HHR who support illegals entering the U.S.”
I bet there will be as many as there are “young Democrats” voting for Trump because of Vance.
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The Siena poll was Trump +1 so this is not an improvement. Still, a tied national race is good for Trump.
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In the Michigan poll put out by Marist, Harris is getting Dem support of 100%-0. Yes, you read that right. They also have the Black vote split at 77%-21%. So Black vote is down over 10%, but can’t find any DEMS who are voting against Harris???? That seems a little suspect to me.
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Furthermore, Youngkin was not nearly as endearing to grass roots conservatives”
Janzam is not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but sometimes a moron will actually catch on to something.
This is true. But the “grass roots conservatives” were already voting for Trump, so picking someone “endearing to them” brought zero to the table.
Youngkin, by not being “nearly as endearing” expanded the base and actually would have brought some new votes for Trump.
I thank Janzam for making my point, albeit unintentionally.
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I cannot wait to see the DEMS and the RINOS demand that the Wall be built to kept the illegals inside the US when President Trump starts deporting them.
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McCormick is running a great campaign. He is on TV and radio 24/7 and is tying Casey to Biden like they are Siamese twins.
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NT
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demand that the Wall be built to kept the illegals inside the US”
Well, one of NYC’s favorite senate deadenders, a moron in Alaska named Joe Miller, actually said East Germany was a “model for immigration”. As we know, they were good at shooting people who wanted to get out, nobody actually tried to get in.
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Chris on X
Times/Siena national poll is Biden +4ish in the recall sample
PA poll is Biden +7 and Biden 2020 voters are 46% of the overall sample.
Full stop.
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