According to USA Today/Suffolk, InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group
The PA polls were Suffolk (500 LVs, 9/11-15) ; and Insider Advantage (800 LVs, 9/14-15). Trafalgar’s GA poll was taken 9/11-13 against 1,098 LVs.
 | PENNSYLVANIA |
| Suffolk: | |
| Trump | 46 |
| Harris | 49 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| McCormick | 43 |
| Casey | 47 |
| Insider Advantage: | |
| Trump | 50 |
| Harris | 48 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| McCormick | 44 |
| Casey | 49 |
 | GEORGIA |
| Trump | 46.2 |
| Harris | 44.5 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
67 responses to “Two polls from PA and Trump with edge in GA”
Here again is my PA analysis with Suffolk now included:
Here is another way to look at PA. Look at the polls now compared to 2020, per pollster.
Trump “lost” by 80,555 votes in PA. A gap of 1.33 points.
2020 | 2024
Trump/Biden | Trump/Harris
49/47 | 48/47 -1 – Wick
49/47 | 50/48 =0 – Insider Advantage
48/46 | 47/45 =0 – Trafalgar
44/50 | 43/46 +3 – Franklin and Marshall
45/50 | 43/45 +3 – Fox News
42/49 | 46/49 +3 – Suffolk
44/51 | 47/50 +4 – Quinnipiac
47/50 | 47/46 +4 – Rasmussen
43/49 | 44/46 +4 – Siena/NY Times
45/50 | 47/47 +5 – CNN/SSRS
47/52 | 49/49 +5 – Emerson
43/52 | 46/49 +6 – Morning Consult
42/49 | 45/45 +7 – Redfield and Wilton
45/52 | 48/47 +8 – PPP
44/52 | 50/50 +8 – CBS/YouGov
I find it interesting that the first three are among the most accurate pollsters who work hard to get it right. So I would conclude that each of them being off in favor of Trump by 3 points in 2020 prompted them to make adjustments in the sampling to get more accurate.
They are currently saying the same that they did in 2020, that Trump has a 1 to 2 point lead. But notice the further down the list you go, the less accurate the pollster. And there is an increasing shift in the polling away from Biden’s gap in 2020 toward Trump in 2024.
Now some of this might be simply them trying to correct to get it right this time as well, but its more likely that they have picked up movement from 2020, toward Trump, and the top three might have over-corrected a little bit.
The needle doesn’t have to move that much in PA to flip the state red. And with it, goes the election.
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They got the outlier on the 15th.
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I never heard of a falcon beating up on an eagle but i guess it happens.
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Ras has Trump +6…….Morning Consult has Harris +6.
Someone is gonna miss badly.
Morning Consult poll (C+), Sep 13-15
🟦 Kamala Harris 51%
🟥 Donald Trump 45%
This is the largest lead by any candidate in this poll in the entirety of 2024
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NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 43% (+1)
🔴 Trump: 42%
J.L Partners & Daily Mail | Sept. 11-16 | N=1,000LV
Scooterboy
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I doubt it is plus 6 either way. Not the way the battleground state poles are showing.
Rcp Average the national poles and quemala is plus 2 and change.
Rcp average the battlegrounds and it is 0.3.
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(I got these average from Cn and n Harry antenna
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Morning Consulation is a junk polling firm. Ras has some weird results/wild swings. Is his tracker good?
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/erik-prince-trump-assassins-appearing-blackwater-commercials-statistical/
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DeSantis assigns attempted assassination of Trump case to Attorney General Ashley Moody, vows “full transparency” and believes the suspect committed “attempted murder”
“It’s not in the best interest of our state or our nation to have the same federal agencies seeking to prosecute Donald Trump leading this investigation.”
“The public deserves to know the truth about how this assassination [attempt] came to be.”
“I have directed all state agencies to work expeditiously.”
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Casey and Harris performing similarly in the poll would be concerning to me if I was a Trump supporter.
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It could mean Casey’s lead is decreasing but that feels a little unlikely. Who knows.
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Not sure how much this means since 2020 was Covid. I would assume more people were requesting mail ins in 2020. But still is a possible good sign for Trump. Your thoughts ???
PENNSYLVANIA DATA DROP ‼️
Mail-in ballot requests R vs D
2020 (50 days out)
GOP: 376,956
Dem: 1,101,962
2024 (50 days out)
GOP: 321,077
Dem: 798,946
Scooterboy
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Regarding the debate and abc news, here is wha a Cn and n WHreporter stated on 9/4:
MJ Lee
@mj_lee
·
Follow
Replying to @mj_lee
There have been some assurances offered to the Harris campaign about how the network would handle any moments of significant cross talk, including mics being turned on, as well as moderator discouraging disruptive interruptions and explaining to viewers what is being said.
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Chris Cuomo makes an impassioned apology to Trump !!!
https://x.com/maxevansump/status/1836020334438318417?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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It’s the economy stupid !!!!
BREAKING: Companies have announce they are adding just 6,101 new workers in the US, up by nearly 2,500 since July, but down more than 21% from August 2023, per CNBC.
The year-to-date hiring announcements of nearly 80,000 is the lowest total in history going back to 2005.
Scooterboy
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Scooter – Who hasn’t made up their mind yet? Choose, damn it. Only 1 can win.
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BREAKING UPDATE: The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon is reporteldy among the at least 1200 injured in the remote blasts when their “pagers” exploded. He apparently was carrying a Hezbollah pager.
Scooterboy
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Ma, that fowl bait did not work. Maybe because it was too close to foul.
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Here is your evidence that Morning Consult put both thumbs on the scale. Despite being out of the limelight and largely forgotten about, suddenly Biden’s personal favorability jumped to only-4, and his job approval to only -7.
Going forward this is an important metric to watch. Its a rare situation to have a lame duck with no real capacity to change the encased in cement opinions about his favorability and job approval. So if it suddenly surges, toss out the entire poll.
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Evidently the pagers were booby trapped. Seems like Hezbollah had replaced them for a new model and the Israelis were able to plant explosives in them somehow before they were shipped. If this is the case, would be the Mother of all Mossad operations and it will make the terrorists afraid to use pagers or answer phones.
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“o “if it suddenly surges, toss out the entire poll”
We can toss it but the MSM won’t.
The headlines will read Harris with momentum, best poll ever, etc.
This is designed to discourage Trump voters and donations.
And it works.
On the other hand, I think Trumps wins with 47% of the national vote, so all Trump needs even in that poll is 2/4 of the undecided.
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Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
·
1h
Only 28% of Independents say the country is headed in the right direction.
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But still a lot more of them will vote for Harris.
Go figure.
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A lot more than 28% I mean.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/florida-gov-ron-desantis-announces-executive-order-assigning/
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People still use pagers? Who knew?
I thought cell phones made beepers/pagers almost extinct.
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“And it works.” It didn’t work in 2016, but I get your point. Even so, there are signs within even the most leftist of pollsters that Harris is not even close to on pace with Hillary 2016 or Biden 2020. They cannot hide it all. Too many leaks in the ship:
Quinnipiac – Trump +4 in Georgia
CNN – Trump +5 in Arizona
CNN, CBS, and Redfield & Wilton all say a tie in Pennsylvania
Redfield & Wilton – Trump up one in NV, and Morning Consult a tie.
In Michigan, two of the three local Michigan only pollsters, Glengariff, Mitchell, and EPIC/MRA show a Trump lead of 1, the other shows a tie.
Then nationally, NY Times/Siena with Trump +2, AtlasIntel, Trump +3.
So yeah, they will focus only on the ones they want, but there are reasons why even the CNN data analyst guy has been sounding alarms about Harris’ chances.
Back in both 2016 and 2020, NONE of the above existed among the leftist pollsters. They were all predicting Hillary and Biden landslides.
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Supposedly this is one of the pagers going off.
https://x.com/bubblebathgirl/status/1836048014302933186?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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Tina, RAS’s Trump +6 is from a daily tracking sample of only about 350 LVs. The previous day it was Harris +6. RAS averages a week’s worth of daily data for a total LV sample of about 2,000. The big daily swings average out.
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Well, they still have 49 more days before election day to finish the job on Trump. Why risk counting the votes when you can just grease him? The “nuke it from orbit” strategy – “its the only way to be sure” I place the over and under on the number of assassination attempts between now and the election at two. Of course, if they get it done the first time there won’t be a need for a second try.
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He is a “crusader”
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Bitter, as well as two-way radios (Motorola, Viking etc…)
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DW what a great graphic. BTW morning consult is MSNBC for what its worth
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And now I will take a look at Georgia, comparing pollsters from 2020 against 2024 to see if there is the same pattern found in Pennsylvania. Keep in mind that Georgia clearly was the worst in terms of election fraud, resulting in a gap of just 0.23.
2020 | 2024
Trump/Biden | Trump/Harris
50/45 | 46/44 -3 – Trafalgar
49/46 | 49/49 -3 – Spry Strategies (R)
48/46 | 46/46 -2 – Insider Advantage
50/46 | 46/44 -2 – Landmark
49/49 | 49/50 -1 – Emerson
48/48 | 48/48 =0 – Morning Consult
47/49 | 48/50 =0 – FoxNews
46/48 | 47/48 +1 – PPP (D)
45/45 | 47/44 +3 – NY Times/Siena
44/45 | 49/47 +3 – Redfield and Wilton
46/47 | 51/46 +6 – University of Georgia
44/51 | 49/45 +11– Quinnipiac
Once again, the pollsters who ended up too favorable for Trump in 2020 seemingly have corrected their weightings so as to not make the same mistake. And once again, the least accurate pollsters out there are either seeing movement toward Trump or they are working to correct their error. My inclination is that its the former…movement toward Trump. They just don’t have it in them to try being accurate when they have been leftist propaganda since they started polling.
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https://www.dailysignal.com/2024/09/16/deadly-get-trump-climate-continues/
”Just two months after the failed Trump assassination attempt by one Thomas Matthew Crooks, we witnessed Sunday yet another foiled one, by Ryan Wesley Routh—a would-be assassin and anti-Trump/radical pro-Ukraine War social media addict.
Somehow he, too, once again got within relatively easy shooting range of former President Donald Trump.
Is there a continued pattern here of lax Trump Secret Service protection, coupled with a general social media and televised climate that equates Trump with Hitler and lowers the bar on assassination?”
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Schedule This Week
TRUMP:
Flint, Michigan
Uniondale, New York
Wilmington, North Carolina
VANCE:
Sparta, Michigan
Eau Claire, Wisconsin
Raleigh, North Carolina
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Schedule This Week
HARRIS:
Pennsylvania: Black Jounalist Association Interview
Michigan
WALZ:
Georgia
North Carolina
Wisconsin
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Channeling Walt:
A Raleigh rally. Really?
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You are asking me to believe that Secret Service agents are willing to be present at the murder of Trump and at risk of harm themselves. I don’t accept that.
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These Harris +4-+6 polls keep popping up. Is it true movement towards Harris?
General election poll
🔵 Harris 52% (+4)
🔴 Trump 48%
Last poll (7/26) – 🔴 Trump +2
Harris X #C – 3,108 RV – 9/13
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Scooter, I like how informative most of your posts are – polling, candidate scheduling etc.
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Redfield and Wilton is a British firm, and they probably are not as beholden to the leftist media pressure to conform. They have always had a left lean though, but in this instance, they found the same exact result in their national poll, a two point Harris lead, both before and after the debate.
It seems the Morning Consult is the leader on the left, and others are herding to them, while still others are staying the course.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/former-navy-seal-rep-eli-crane-issues-stern/
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Thanks Jan.. I feel I’ve grown into a top notch A-hole. Of course the other A-holes would never give me any credit. Bastards !!!!
I wish some of the polls I’ve posted lately were more favorable to Trump. But they are what they are. Hopefully they will underestimate Trump’s real polling strength once again, like they did in 2020. If they aren’t underestimating Trumps polling strength, the Nation is screwed. Harris will be a complete disaster !!!
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/cbs-drops-devastating-news-kamala-nevada-we-could/
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In that Harris poll……..
61% say the economy is on the wrong track and 22% of Black/AA voters are going towards Trump in this poll.
Hard to believe that Harris would be +4 with numbers like that. Perhaps I’m just an A-hole idiot, and don’t understand how these things work.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/liberal-news-outlet-pushes-poll-about-black-voter/
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if the obumbler got 95% of the black vote and quemala is only getting 63%, that is a problem.
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there were a lot of “undecided” in those numbers, as Trumps numbers, except those under 40, were low as well.
My guess is she gets 80+% and trump gets 15-20%, which would be good for him.
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Polls that have Trump behind seem to always have him barely winning the white vote. I have not seen the crosstabs for the poll listed above showing Harris ahead 52-48, so I can’t speak on that specifically. But I have seen polls with Harris ahead (in swing states or nationally) that show Trump with between +2 and +8 of the white vote. I think he’ll get between +14 and +18 with the white vote. If he craters with the white vote, then yes, he loses.
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Tat reporter finding no aupport fo Quemala in Nv is funny.
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“In Las Vegas, a key area of the state with its large Latino population, concerns over the economy are driving voters toward Trump. Food truck owner ‘Francisco Mares’ noted that rising prices are hitting families hard.
“The tacos used to be a dollar, a dollar fifty. After the pandemic, they don’t go under $3.50 to $4 because meat’s expensive.”
cbs in Nv.
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Rasmussen will be releasing Swing State polling either end of this week, or beginning of next week. He also said he would be polling Virginia too.
Scooterboy
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I should clarify. Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports. Not Scott Rasmussen of RMG. Sorry !
I would recommend you watch Mark Mitchell on YouTube if you haven’t before. He explains his polling methods, and the occasional wild swings due to daily tracking.
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Difficult to see how 6% are still undecided.
ARIZONA poll
🔴 Trump: 46.2% (+0.2)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟡 Undecided: 6.4%
🟣 Refused: 1.3%
Data Orbital | Sept. 7-9 | N=550L
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Republicans have Currently received more mail in ballots than Dems in Florida.
Nearly 10,000 mail-in ballots have been sent out in Florida’s 2024 election
🔴 Republican: 3,697 (38.9%)
🔵 Democrats: 3,576 (37.7%)
🟡 Other: 2,221 (23.3%)
Scooter
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“A Raleigh rally. Really?”
-Good Retlaw.
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link to data orbital?
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I will post a new thread in the next 90 minutes.
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New Thread
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Mark Halperin undecided panel.
https://x.com/2waytvapp/status/1836135658370297875?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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