| Arizona: | Trump 50, Harris 47 |
| Georgia: | Harris 49, Trump 48 |
| Michigan: | Harris 50, Trump 47 |
| Nevada: | Harris 49, Trump 48 |
| North Carolina: | Trump 49, Harris 48 |
| Pennsylvania: | Trump 48, Harris 48 TIE |
| Wisconsin: | Trump 49, Harris 48 |
| Michigan Senate | Slotkin 47, Rogers 41 |
| Nevada Senate | Rosen 50, Brown 40 |
| Pennsylvania Senate | Casey 48, McCormick 44 |
| Wisconsin Senate | Baldwin 49, Hovde 48 |
| Arizona Senate | Gallego 49, Lake 42 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
107 responses to “The Hill has all swing states within a point, Except AZ and MI…leaving the race at 269-269 Senate races tight in PA, MI and WI”
first…and yall thought there wouldn’t be any new polls. Long Live DW…and his subordinates
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This poll is not new. Sorry to burst your bubble.
That;s the Emerson poll we have seen already.
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“Heck, just everything that Jason posts and believes that is not true….”
Can you give a couple examples, Walt?
This should be good.
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HHR is tough place.I commend Walt for freeing PA from lantern flies and he turns around and calls
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me a liar.
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Pretty evident that these poles are “dated”. Quemala appears to have received a negative bounce.
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Ok, yall have to give me a break. They are new, in that I posted them and finally you could see them. I will post some fresh ones shortly…but…it is interesting because this mix of results ends up in a 269-269 tie…without NE-2 going to Trump. These results would send liberals into a hissy fit. Winning GA and NV and losing the election because of WI and PA
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Not that I want to get into an argument with Walt.
I hear he once debated Demosthenes and rumor is he held his own.
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Polls were also 720LV done from 8/26-8/28
This is how AZ looked in the last two elections
Arizona This Day in History: August 30, 2020: Biden +2.2 | August 30, 2016: Trump +2.0
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They are new, in that I posted them”
Hmm, interesting new standard.
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Just kidding Vic, thanks for the polls, new or not.
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Trump is greater than Washington, Lincoln, Reagan, God and Jesus.
-Cult Member
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see you get it bitter.
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and that would be, combined. Bitter.
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okkkkk afternoon slowdown is early today
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Cult Member left Moses out.
Anti-semitic bastard.
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Susan Wild (D-Hamas-Pa)
“The use of the two conflicting letters was revealed by a mother and daughter who had written as constituents to Rep. Wild in support of Israel. They received not one but two letters in response.
In the pro-Israel letter, Wild said she was “outraged, devastated, and heartbroken” over the “vicious” Hamas attack. She pledged to “do everything I can as your representative to ensure Israel has the ability and capacity to restore and maintain its security and safety of all its citizens.”
In the pro-Palenstinian letter, Wild said she was “outraged, devastated, and heartbroken” over the “unspeakable tragedy continuing to unfold in Gaza.” In calling for an “immediate ceasefire,” she decried how the Israeli military “has inflicted devastation on staggering numbers of innocent Palestinian children, families, and civilians in Gaza.”
These were not the first conflicting pitches by Wild on the issue.
In March 2019, Wild told a reporter she was “one of the most pro-Israel members of Congress.” Yet, days earlier, she spoke at a fundraiser for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) alongside Marc Lamont Hill, whom CNN had fired months earlier for urging to “free Palestine from the river to the sea.”
A year later, Wild was criticized for reportedly organized a birthday fundraiser for American Friends Service Committee, a left-wing group that accuses Israel of the “root causes” of the Hamas attack and has called for “decriminalizing Hamas.”
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CNN:
“In an exclusive CNN interview, Kamala Harris gave the clearest view yet of what she plans for her presidency if elected”
I guess it is true. They failed to mention it was the one and only interview.
Under that standard, it was the clearest and the best.
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The race is going to intensify starting next week following Labor Day. I wonder if the polling will be less erratic and/or seen as less questionable by the public. Will the samplings be reflective of the real D and R ratios out there? Will the cross tabs indicate less bias in the questions asked people in their samples?
Speaking of “bias,” that clip of Boston firefighters booing Vance was a little erroneous, as they were but a small vocal group, wearing t-shirts saying “Trump is a scab.” The room where Vance was speaking was a larger ballroom type, with most people there welcoming his remarks.
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Last night I tried to find Harris’s full interview but only found a few clips. Was it ever put out there by CNN? In contrast Trump’s speaking engagements are almost immediately published, often including transcripts. For inquiring minds, not completely closed off by party affiliation, ideology, or Trump hatred, one would want to know why Harris is being curated in such a restrictive way by the corporate press and her handlers.
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JUST IN: Dem AG Appears To Threaten Street Artist SABO After His Brilliant Artwork Blaming Kamala For Illegal Alien Invasion Appears On Street Signs, Bus Stops In Aurora, CO
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/30/nolte-cnns-kamala-harris-interview-optics-ridiculed-child-at-adult-table/
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Dolts was quemalas emotional support or parent.
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BTW, the SABO photo and accompanying piece was published by the much maligned (here) Gateway Pundit as nothing more than a conspiracy site. Far from it, this site, more often than not, goes with non- PC relevant stories that are either ahead of the curve ball news media, or simply too straight-forward for the dem- supporting MSM to print.
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Zzzz…….
The fact Gateway Pundit published an actual photo of something somehow absolves them from being a garbage conspiracy site that routinely posts stupid conspiracy theories and additionally serves as a propaganda outlet for Russian State TV with endless articles justifying Putin’s war crimes?
No.
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he much maligned (here) Gateway Pundit”
It should be much ‘maligned” everywhere by people with half a brain who don’t want to be fed mindless conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda.
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Trump War Room
@TrumpWarRoom
Voter on MSNBC destroys Kamala Harris: “We have three major international crises going on and someone applying to be Commander in Chief. As a woman, I want to see you do more than appeal to giggling and having a girl moment on stage.”
https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1829540226345140326?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1829540226345140326%7Ctwgr%5E54b2b6ad1e15f65339ab1370a75196a154867f93%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconservativetreehouse.com%2Fblog%2F2024%2F08%2F30%2Faugust-30th-2024-presidential-politics-resistance-day-1320%2F
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Did Gateway Pundit finally settle on 2 or 3 yachts owned by Zelensky?
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https://www.westernjournal.com/watch-kamala-harris-cnn-interview-backfires-moment-cost-2024-election/
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This ad has to be played on national TV.
https://x.com/mattmargolis/status/1829539781329797201?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1829539781329797201%7Ctwgr%5Ec9bbc5b18282b7e5fd79e6b9f6670e082d9c5e11%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpjmedia.com%2Fmatt-margolis%2F2024%2F08%2F30%2Ftrump-vance-campaign-uses-kamalas-cnn-interview-in-devastating-new-ad-n4932118
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Gold Star family member, who was at Arlington to commemorate the Abby Gate fallen, says Biden and Harris WERE invited to the ceremony, as was Trump, and only he accepted the invitation – something he has always done dealing with these military families.
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https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/41053342/blue-jackets-winger-johnny-gaudreau-brother-matthew-die
Unfortunately, DUI murder is not a death penalty offense. 2 brothers killed the day before they were going to be groomsmen in their sister’s wedding today. 3 families destroyed by a drunk scumbag who had to drink at least 5-6 beers before driving. Hopefully, the other inmates will get a degree of justice for the victims.
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“Heck, just everything that Jason posts and believes that is not true….”
Can you give a couple examples?”
*******
Ma, the bait is working….
OK, here is one:
“I commend Walt for freeing PA from lantern flies and he turns around and calls me a liar.” 🙂
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Did Gateway Pundit finally settle on 2 or 3 yachts owned by Zelensky?”
I think they settled on 3 mega yachts and the Taj Mahal, and that he is in secret negotiations to buy Windsor Castle from King Charles.
They reported that Putin, on the other hand, owns a rubber dinghy and lives in a closet in the Kremlin because he donates all his money to the Russian victims of “Zelensky’s War on Russia”.
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So which part was not true?
Walt freeing PA from lantern flies or Walt calling me a liar?
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Yes, and yes.
Neither true.
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/08/30/new_rules_for_radicals_–_how_to_reinvent_kamala_harris_151538.html
”The complete Harris makeover requires 15 radical rules followed to the letter:
1. Remake Harris as an entirely fresh happy face. She’s about joy and vibe — which trumps position papers and policy statements. Banish all thoughts that she is an incumbent vice president and co-owns the last four years of the Biden administration.
2. Ignore/deny that Harris as vice president could have long ago enacted her new makeover proposal — or could do so right now in the remaining five months of her administration’s tenure. She was the last person out of the room when Biden made those awful decisions.
3. For the next 70 days, reinvent Harris as a moderate. Xerox much of Donald Trump’s current more popular agenda. Have Harris claim it as her own. Reboot her as a border hawk, a China hawk, a defense hawk, a budget hawk, and a law-and-order hawk.
4. The word-salad Harris must not do a single unscripted media interview, live town hall, extemporaneous chat, ambush hot mic, or lecture without a teleprompter.
5. Harris must not offer any policy proposals such as her harebrained price controls that deviate from her 70-day new centrist image and teleprompted scripts.
6. Do not mention Biden at all. Harris is not to be seen with him in photos or at events. Create a vaguely joyful but completely imaginary, “Harris record.” Separate it from the miserable Biden-Harris administration. Leak that she was unhappy with Biden.
7. Call Trump a mobster, criminal, insurrectionist, and dictator nonstop. Never provide any evidence to support such charges. When challenged, double down and let loose with worse invective.
8. Talk about abortion nonstop. But never dare mention the word. Relabel abortion “reproductive rights.” Falsely reinvent Trump as a radical anti-abortionist who wants a federal ban.
9. Follow the 2020 successful Biden “basement” strategy: keep out of the public eye, silent on the issues, reliant on 70 percent of the ballots not being cast on Election Day, and outsourcing the campaign to the fusion media and billionaire class.
10. Harangue about race and gender nonstop. Define the election as a stark binary between a “young” oppressed but dynamic black woman and an old oppressor racist white guy.
11. Reinvent the “journey” and life “story” of Harris — the child of two PhDs — into a hardscrabble, lifelong struggle against poverty, systemic racism, and greedy “billionaires” like Trump. She is always to be from Oakland — never Berkeley.
12. Talk about transparency nonstop. Feign a willingness to have three or four debates. But agree to hold only one — and only on a left-wing network. Promise interviews and town halls endlessly. Enter into discussions about them. But always delay, stonewall, and evade for the next 10 weeks.
13. Meet privately and endlessly with the megarich donor class that helped to remove Biden. Assure Wall Street, Hollywood, and Silicon Valley grandees that banter about wealth taxes, taxes on unearned income, and higher corporate taxes are mere campaign posturing. Then outraise Trump again 3-1.
14. Privately assure leftist activists and Democrat politicos that any backslidings from supporting lifelong left-wing advocacies are temporary and necessary 70-day pretexts. Instead look at what Harris actually does after November 5, not anything she must say before then.
15. Control and modulate the street. Anti-Trump protests are a legitimate “movement” that are “not going to let up. And they should not.” Any violent anti-Trump demonstrator should be bailed out immediately.”
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Latest Redfield & Wilton swing states poll:
(Trump | Harris)
AZ (46% | 45%)
FL (48% | 43%)
GA (44% | 42%)
MI (44% | 47%)
MN (42% | 51%)
NV (47% | 47%)
NM (40% | 47%)
NC (45% | 44%)
PA (45% | 46%)
WI (44% | 48%)
AZ-SEN: 42-37 Gallego
FL-SEN: 43-40 Scott
MI-SEN: 42-35 Slotkin
MN-SEN: 41-34 Klobuchar
NV-SEN: 43-39 Rosen
NM-SEN: 43-33 Heinrich
PA-SEN: 44-38 Casey
WI-SEN: 46-41 Baldwin
NC-GOV: 44-40 Stein
https://wvmetronews.com/2024/08/30/west-virginia-poll-solid-leads-for-morrisey-and-justice-in-upcoming-election/
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D’oh! Wrong link for R&W polls. Justice is up in WV 62-28, Morrissey 49-35 for GOV.
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Flying to Nashville. If the plane crashes, GFYs.
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Are you going to Nashville for another concert?
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I think it will work.
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I hope Bitter put the $2000 snow blower in his will for me.
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42-35 Slotkin
So 23% are not included.
Zzzzzz….
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The betting markets think there is “only” a 22% chance that Dems will sweep in Nov.
https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2024-election?tid=1725047961407
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DC Restaurants now serving the “Kamala Special”
3 Martinis and a word salad.
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Quick Bitter, before you board gimme the safe combination at the A-hole Club, you can always change it when, huh, if, you get back.
And how long will you be gone exactly?
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Wow, fantastic TDS parody ad released by Nicole Shanahan.
I think it was made specifically for JeffP
https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1829298529262514629?ref_src=twsrctfw|twcamptweetembed|twterm1829298529262514629|twgr7167728c274368d51feaa510207b2db7f826bd42|twcons1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpjmedia.com%2Fchris-queen%2F2024%2F08%2F30%2Fnew-parody-ad-combats-trump-derangement-syndrome-with-a-dose-of-independence-n4932126
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Really well done.
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Wick Insights PA Poll:
Harris: 49%
Trump: 49%
—
Full Ballot
Trump: 48%
Harris: 47%
Oliver: 1%
Stein: 1%
——
Senate
Casey (inc): 48%
McCormick: 46%
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1829613855460512043
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I saw the Nicole Shanahan ad earlier but was unable to post it. So am glad somebody else was able to do so. It really gets to the core of some of our voter hypocrisy, becoming an independent voter vs a rubber stamp Trump hater.
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Pretty sure Gateway Pundit had that Shanahan link as well……..still waiting for those links to the conspiracy theories posted there, as opposed to taking jason and Bitterlaw’s word for it.
Trust, but verify.
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I believe the Gateway Pundit is controlled by the Russians.
-free passer
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Nicole Shanahan is a fucking idiot.
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Trump is a FUCKING TRAITOR WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTED>
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Well said, Paul! I like the ALL CAPS affect!
Makes it seem MORE IMPORTANT!
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“3 Martinis and a word salad.”
Heh!
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No. But we will go to bars with music. I think we are also going to the Grand Ole Oprey.
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A short message for Paul:
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I name by pets after Trump.
Cult Member
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I guess Bitter made it to Nashville. But there is always the flight back if you want to give me the safe combination.
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I believe the Gateway Pundit is controlled by the Russians.”
It is controlled by Jim Hoft, Putin Stooge, Conspiracy Theorist and Yellow Journalism advocate extraordinaire.
Fixed it for you.
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Nashville is one of the fastest growing cities in the nation. We saw a profile on the city a few days back and it was very upbeat. Hope you and your wife have a good time there, Bitter.
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Paul is off his meds again, sad.
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Shanahan is reportedly worth at least $1 billion. So she can afford to put out some good ads.
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Pravda has accurate weather forecasts. NYC would say that makes it an accurate source of news.
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I will give you a report.
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Clean up on aisle 9.
Donald Trump says he will vote against Florida’s abortion rights ballot amendment.
He hasn’t learned a thing about using the English language and the chaos he causes with his loose lips.
Still an idiot and has taken the GOP leftward on every issue.
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My daughter is in college in Nashville we go all the time. Love the vibe.
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RIP Johnny Gaudreau And Matthew Gaudreau. Tragedy. Don’t drink drive.
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”Donald Trump says he will vote against Florida’s abortion rights ballot amendment.”
Trump made it clear, even before the 6-week ban was signed by DeSantis, that he thought 6 weeks was too limiting. When asked about Amendment 4 his answer was phased around his lack of support for 6 weeks, and not around any support for the controversial amendment on the upcoming ballot. Why don’t you give him some slack JeffP instead of jumping down his throat at every turn!
As for Amendment 4, in general…its wording is meant to be deceptive, reminding me of how many propositions are written and then passed here in CA. Proposition 47 comes to mind – a proposition Harris was behind when she was CA AG.
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Trump knew he blew it Jan. It’s obvious.
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Stolen arches and Stolen Valor
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Trump said leave it up to the states. Unfortunately he can’t help being divisive and interfering in conservative states.
Some people like me have moral convictions.
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Trump simply needs to emphasize – over and over again – his goal to make America the best place in the world for moms, dads, and babies. Safe streets, good schools, parental rights, healthy kids, medical freedom, closed border, and affordable groceries. Using proper grammar would help greatly.
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I am the only one that keeps Trump accountable and Jan cries about it every time. 😂
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Jason just says TDS TDS TDS
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Trump caved on his pro abortion comment due to pressure from people like me.
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lets see if the mets can lose to the 31-104 White Sox after beating red hot D-backs 2 out of 3
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Trump caved on his pro abortion comment due to pressure from people like me.”
Yeah, TDS idiots always cost Trump a lot of votes.
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JeffP takes Shanahan’s ad personally.
I don’t blame him.
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Pravda has accurate weather forecasts. NYC would say that makes it an accurate source of news.”
Zinngggg….
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Jeff, keeping you honest in your hyper criticism of the R nominee is not “crying.” In fact if anyone is whimpering it’s you as you nitpick because your candidate didn’t even make it out of the primary gate! Furthermore, rather than cave, Trump clarified his position because of the harangue people like you put him through, on an amendment that would never have been on the ballot had DeSantis chosen a less divisive abortion limit line. Most people support a 15 week period of time to consider an abortion. Trump, in attempting to secure the presidency, is voicing concerns about such an extreme 6 week DeSantis-signed ban, but in the end showing an awareness how extreme and devious Amendment 4 is too. It’s a diplomatic tight rope that has to be recognized and walked by someone aware of both sides of a national issue. Apparently DeSantis has abortion blinders on which is only one reason why he is not the nominee.
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However, while JeffP is caterwauling about Trump’s grammar, values, what he doesn’t support he is on to another issue this country is facing – the indoctrination of our children and the distortion of their education – by speaking at the Mom’s for Liberty event.
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https://x.com/bdomenech/status/1829333748279566347?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1829333748279566347%7Ctwgr%5E40eb31cad8863bfe1801c2ef4ed10b6a8042f105%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2024%2F08%2Felection-odds-update-kamala-harris-widely-panned-cnn%2F
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I wonder if Quemalas peeps sabotaged her interview with the bad optics mentioned in the tweet. Even doltz collar is messed up.
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When Harris’s record and new policy assertions are researched there seem to be very few authentic or accurate moments in her life.
https://www.themirror.com/news/politics/kamala-harris-caught-fabricating-key-669247
”According to police detectives in a 2006 article from the SFGate, have said that her “track record on crimes doesn’t match her rhetoric” They also accused her of being slow to prosecute murder suspects as well.”
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I did not know that the show at the Grand Ole Opry is actually acts that are broadcast live on the radio. More of a variety show with interviews between songs. Good but not what I expected.
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Then I will be sure to not look at the half dressed girls. I know it is what is populate but as my dad used to say to my nieces, “Where’s the rest of your shirt?”
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Babylon Bee:
“Democrats Consider Replacing Kamala Harris with More Coherent Joe Biden”
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My wife and I homeschooled all five children. They are all doing great and aren’t brainwashed by cultural Marxism. A couple of my daughters a smart enough to understand all of Trumps faults without my help and will vote for him.
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Jan six weeks is not extreme unless your pro choice.
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I realized the public school system was wrecked in most communities in 1988.
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A couple weeks ago my daughter was in an accident with an illegal turning left out of a parking lot right into her on a Main Street. No English … no license … driving some other relatives car best we can guess. Totaled my daughter’s car. The woman was at the YMCA getting handouts for illegals.
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Post
See new postsConversation
Collin Rugg
@CollinRugg
JUST IN: Tim Walz’s brother says he is considering joining forces with Trump, says his brother is “not the type of character you want making decisions about your future.” Jeff Walz’s Facebook profile was discovered by
@LauraLoomer
who found several stunning posts. “The stories I could tell. Not the type of character you want making decisions about your future,” he said in a comment. “Haven’t spoke to him in 8 years. I’m 100% opposed to all his ideology.” “My family wasn’t given any notice that he was selected and denied security the days after.” All the comments stemmed from a March 30, 2023 post after Trump was convicted where Jeff Walz said: “We’ve just become a third world banana republic.”
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Thank God your daughter is ok. sad thing is, that if your daughter had hit her, she would have sued your daughter and won a lot of money. Instead, this illegal will walk away scott free, not have to pay a penny, and your daughter stuck with the bills and a higher insurance premium.
Welcome to Kamerika
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Demented can run again. He should be well relaxed from his beach adventures.
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JeffG said “I realized the public school system was wrecked in most communities in 1988.”
It’s why I fought tooth and nail to get complete control over education from the ex. I would work at walmart on the overnight shift if that’s what I needed to pay for private school for them. I would NEVER put them in public school…ever.
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I spend 3 to 4 weeks in Europe (not UK) a year. The quality of life has is much better now than the US. They don’t have the inflation we have, high quality food, much safer, clean, excellent public transportation, great cafes, restaurants, history, it has its faults for sure…but if we are going socialist as a country…I want the Euro quality of life.
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I just saw that…reminds of Obamas bro.
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I went to help her and the police officer was awesome.
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Did you check out the Opryland Hotel? It’s wild inside.
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Wash.. Nationals lost 7 to 6.
Nats score 2 in bottom of first.
Cubs score 7 in top of 3rd (WTF?)
Nats rookie phenom Crews hits solo HR in 4th making it 7-3.
Stays that way until bottom of 9th.
Nats score 3 making it 7 to 6 AND have runners on 1st and 2nd.
two outs by this time.
Crews at plate. Battles but strikes out swinging.
Still glad we went. exciting game at the end.
They would not let Cash Cow in as my emotional support animal.
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lol. Mets beat the hapless white Sox but the Phillies failed to cooperate, getting crushed by the Braves. Thanks for nothing Bitter.
can’t believe the White Sox are 31-105. Crazy to think, but seriously could beat the Mets record of 120 losses. They have to go 13-14 to not set the record. Don’t see that happening. I’m projecting 38-124. Ouch
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“Some people like me have moral convictions.”
-Then go and counsel women who are thinking of getting an abortion instead of counseling voters trying to make a pragmatic decision about who should lead the country, where the wrong choice (Harris/Walz) would allow unfettered abortion rights from conception to birth.
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Cheers!
Enjoy the Labor Day weekend!
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NT
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