According to a new poll by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) taken for the AARP, 8/14-8/20 against 600 LV. Many have argued that by this point in the election Hogan would be trailing badly, that it was just too big a lift. But instead he is hanging around, still alive:
 | MARYLAND SENATE |
| Hogan | 46 |
| Alsobrooks | 46 |
| Undecided | 7 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
32 responses to “Political funeral for Hogan in Maryland was premature”
Frist
LikeLike
damn
LikeLike
If they’d swap Hogan for Trump, GOP could win 46 states.
LikeLike
Uh, no Paul.
LikeLike
reposting from last thread:
Here is the full report from Robert Barnes as he sees the election today:
WY: Trump +48
WV: Trump +45
ND: Trump +40
OK: Trump +35
ID: Trump +35
AL: Trump +30
TN: Trump +30
SC: Trump +30
LA: Trump +27
NE: Trump +25
UT: Trump +25
MT: Trump +22 (Tester going down)
MS: Trump +22
IN: Trump +22
MO: Trump +21
KS: Trump +21
KY: Trump +20
IA: Trump +16
SC: Trump +15
TX: Trump +12
FL: Trump +10
NC: Trump +9
GA: Trump +7
AZ: Trump +6
WI: Trump +6
PA: Trump +5
NV: Trump +5
MI: Trump +4
NE_02: Trump +1
NH: Trump +1
ME: Trump <1
VA: Harris +2
MN: Harris +2
NM: Harris +4
CO: Harris +7
OR: Harris +8
NJ: Harris +8
IL: Harris +10
WA: Harris +10
NY: Harris +15
CT: Harris +15
RI: Harris +15
CA: Harris +25
MA: Harris +30
Trump wins Electoral vote: 319 to 219
Pop vote: 152 million votes cast:
Trump 77 million
Harris 73 million
2-3 million third party (2%)
But here is the key news they broke. Its well known in the polling community, but both Baris and Barnes heard the same from different sources:
Ann Selzer is holding a recently surveyed Trump + 19 in IOWA, but she won’t release it because everyone knows if Trump is that far ahead in IA, then he isn’t going to lose Wisconsin.
LikeLike
DW,
Did Baris and Barnes say upon what data set they based their forecasts? I would like for it to be true, but some of those states and the popular vote total appeared to be quite optimistic.
LikeLike
I still cannot believe demented and not so joyous did not attend Arlington yesterday.
Demented was asleep, but what is quemalas excuse?
LikeLike
https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/recent-ruling-could-wipe-out-key-case-against-trump-legal-expert-reveals-mstef/
LikeLike
Here are the POTUS numbers they found in Maryland:
MARYLAND poll by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) for
@AARP
President
🟦 Harris: 64%
🟥 Trump: 32%
LikeLike
Marv,
Yes, they went into deep detail. Talking about specific voting blocs in specific regions and states. The impact of RFK, the ways in which Harris is weak, and where she is weak. They weren’t just pulling these numbers out of thin air. They also talked about polling, both known and private, that back this up.
LikeLike
Is there a link to Barnes/baris. I though you gave it out somewheee?
LikeLike
Take the popular vote for instance. Harris is way behind the margins of both Hillary and Biden in deep blue states like CA, NY, NJ, and probably IL. That impacts the national popular vote hugely. And she sure isn’t making it up in FL or TX.
LikeLike
Episode 75:
https://x.com/Peoples_Pundit?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thanks.
LikeLike
The Alka seltzer pole is alarming if legit.
LikeLike
The Selzer poll is legit. Just refused to release it.
LikeLike
”I still cannot believe demented and not so joyous did not attend Arlington yesterday.”
Tina, only one ex-president was invited to Arlington yesterday, and it was neither Biden or president-hopeful Harris. The parents of those killed and wounded at Abby Gate are angry at Biden/Harris for their incompetent call in Afghanistan, and their lack of empathy for those not coming back or injured because of it.
LikeLike
Charlie Kirk is assessing that Zuckerberg’s letter to Jim Jordan, admitting he was coerced by the Biden Administration to censor non-approved information, might be a “signal” according to his immense data collection Trump will win the election. Consequently, Zuckerberg wants to be on the winning side of the upcoming election.
LikeLike
”The Alka seltzer pole is alarming if legit.”
Alarming for Dems, perhaps, but I think it’s bloody marvelous.
LikeLike
Dems lose fight to keep Cornel West off ballot in MI.
LikeLike
Post
See new postsConversation
Joe Teirab
@JoeTeirab
I worked as a federal prosecutor in Tim Walz’s Minnesota for four years. When I started, I never thought so much of my time would go towards cleaning up the governor’s messes, but it quickly became a recurring theme in my job. When Walz sat on his hands and let protesters destroy the Twin Cities, my colleagues and I went after rioters and held them accountable. When Walz was asleep at the wheel while crooks stole hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars, I helped prosecute several fraudsters and recouped some of the money. It’s time for the nation to learn who Tim Walz really is. Read my Op-ed in the Washington Reporter here: https://washingtonreporter.news/op-ed/op-ed-joe-teirab-dont-buy-gov-tim-walzs-dangerous-bill-of-goods/
LikeLike
Seltzer is an absolute gold standard for Iowa. They nailed Iowa ON THE NUMBER for Trump in 2016 and 2020 at Trump +8 both times. That’s a fact. Look it up.
LikeLike
OK, I will add Hogan to the Senate candidates i am contributing to:
Sheehy
McCormick
Moreno
Hogan
If I had more funds I would contribute to Brown and Rogers too.
Paul, feel free to send them a check.
LikeLike
Pollsters are gold standard until they aren’t.
LikeLike
I can not imagine Trump winning Iowa by that amount. Remember a few cycles ago it was a bellweather battleground state, just like Ohio
I think it’s very interesting to look at the changes in some of these states over the past 30 years
LikeLike
Baris and Barnes admitted that the particular DMR poll done by Selzer might have been a little too rosy for Trump. Barnes says +16 is about right.
LikeLike
No doubt Alka seltzer is the gold standard for Iowa.
LikeLike
Yet, that margin does seem a bi too rich?
LikeLike
Trump won IA by 9 in 2016 and by 8 in 2020. The Lib got 4% in 2016 and 1% in 2020.
Kamala should sell considerably worse then either Hillary or Biden, IA is a big meat producer accounting for 16% of the entire meat production in the US. If they run some ads showing Kamala vowing to kill the meat industry it should damage her further.
LikeLike
The farmers are suffering economically too.
LikeLiked by 1 person
It is not just the anti-meat campaign. It is the green new deal regulations, the anti-fossil fuel campaign, etc. all these things increase the costs of production and transportation for the farmers and of course are inflationary to consumers.
LikeLike
NT
LikeLike