According to Scott Rasmussen’s RMG Research (not to be confused with Rasmussen Reports). Poll taken 8/6-8/14; 540 RV with a ±4.2% MoE
 | MONTANA |
| Trump | 57 |
| Harris | 39 |
| Other | 3 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Sheehy | 44 |
| Tester | 49 |
| Other | 2 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
89 responses to “Trump up 18 in Montana but Sheehy down 5”
A bigger lead for Trump than the other Montana poll this week but and 11-point negative difference in the Senate race? At least one of those polls is badly off.
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I forgot to “First!” that last post. Now it’s “Segundo!”
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Here is the link to the Democracy Institute Poll showing Trump up 4 nationally
Trump 48
Harris 44
August 11-13
https://x.com/PatrickBashamDI/status/1824264466810184146
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BOOM!
2024 GE:
@RMG_Research
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5% 🟪 Other: 1%
With leans
🟥 Trump: 49% [=]
🟦 Harris: 47% [-2]
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟪 Other: 1%
[+/- change vs 8/5-7]
— 60 | 2,708 LV | August 12-14 | ±1.9%
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Just back on July 29 – 31, RMG research had the race Trump 42, Harris 47
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Perhaps the Elon Musk interview has moved the needle. They will have to put Musk on the terror watch list and charge him with made-up felonies.
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I wonder how many non-Jans watched the interview with Musk.
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I listened for about 45 minutes. It was more of a conversation than an interview.
But since about a billion people tuned in, hopefully they were not all Jans.
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Looking over the data, I noticed that at the peak of the Harris honeymoon, there was a flurry of polls from Georgia. Cook Political delayed the release to make it look like it was news this week, when it wasn’t. But Cook and Bloomberg found ties in Georgia, and PPP-D put up a one-point Harris lead. But the LAST two polls were Trafalgar group, and Redfield & Wilton, very different pollsters, and they both had Trump +2.
But the last of these two polls ended August 3. Since then, silence. Nothing. Sometimes in polling the silence tells you all you need to know.
Georgia isn’t going to go for Harris.
Just like Texas. You know it has been polled relentlessly throughout the Harris Honeymoon, but they couldn’t release what they found, because it didn’t fit the narrative being pushed.
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We need Chicon to comment on the MT poll. He always says “what Trump voter is going to vote for the Dem for senate”?
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Et tu, Wapo?
The op-ed also noted that contrary to excessive profits, supermarket profit margins are “notoriously thin.” It said that the Harris economic advisers seemed to be “either too confused or lazy” to tell the difference between illegal price fixing and market fluctuations based on supply chain disruptions or high demand.
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That whole post after Et tu, Wapo should be in quotes.
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Quemala is trailing. Her numbers are falling from the fake sugar high.
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I still submit that they cannot continue to hide her. She has no lead and is trailing 3-4 points nationally.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/scott-presler-effect-gop-voter-registration-four-times/
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Trump got a million new followers on X after the interview, and his post on X about it generated 200 million hits.
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Bashams poles are quite good.
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Interesting
“In the month of July, some 21,000 Republicans registered to vote in Pennsylvania, while just 5,000 Democrats did the same.”
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The launch of doltz as veep, her hiding, and her price controls policy are disasters.
This administration is unpopular and she is a member of it.
Her positions are radical left
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There has been a concerted GOP registration drive at gun shows, car shows, hunting/fishing shows, etc I was at the Ford National show in Carlisle in June, 60,000 attendees, and the GOP had a booth registering people and handing out EV ballot requests.
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I hope Tina is right, for once.
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Maduro implemented price controls and Venezuelas inflation is 1300%
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This is a test of the emergency polling notification system. This is only a test. Had this been a real polling emergency, the siren above would have been followed by actual emergency polling news.
Actually, its just that I figured out how to put the siren into a regular message response.
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Montana does seem off.
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look tester is going to be tough to beat. He shouldn’t be, but he’s built a reputation based on a false narrative that he’s a moderate. Sitting Senators are notoriously hard to beat
we need this seat as it seems Sherrod brown in Ohio might hold on
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SSQ texted me.
She wrote:
“RMG Research (not to be confused with Rasmussen Reports). Poll taken 8/6-8/14; 540 RV with a ±4.2% MoE”
–Can someone explain to me why they do a poll that only includes Recreational Vehicle owners (RVs)?
–Also who is this “MoE” guy that seems to be in ALL the polls? I am suspicious.
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Kamelia Kamala is now throwing out the policy idea of fed govt. giving $25,000 to very new home buyer.
If you were contemplating buying a home, what would you do?
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I wish you all would stop with all this foolish political talk and posting poll after poll.
–We NEED more info about Prince Harry, and Meagan, and movie stars, who is divorcing who, who is dating who, etc.
–We need more info and stories on EXACTLY where the asteroid came from that wiped out the dinosaurs 300 million years ago
–We need more info and stories and about what cats and dogs and mice are really thinking.
–We need more info and stories about whether drinking 3 cups of coffer or three glasses of wine are GOOD for you or BAD for you.
–We need more about UFOs and extraterrestrials and newly discovered ancient tests and why pythons swallow people.
–We need more stories about which gutter guard is best what a new roof should cost you, why there is a pyramid on the back of a dollar bill, etc.
–which state is the best/worst to visit, which state is best/worst to retire in, which state has the most crabs, which is best/worst to live in if you are LBGTQEIEO
What all can you do with Velcro, etc.
**********
All this political stu.ff is so divisive.
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with all the inflation, I guess the 25k would cover most of the closing costs.
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I have heard several interviews of Pressler. Interesting cat. He describes himself as a long-haired, cowboy boot wearing, gay Republican.
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“…and the GOP had a booth registering people and handing out EV ballot requests.”
***********************
Yes, but the Dems are registering people and handing them a Nov. ballot that is already filled out.
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Cash Cow came up with a new slogan for me to use:
“NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE STUPIITY AND THE RATIONALITY OF THE AMERICAN VOTER; DON’T LOOK FOR REASON AND SANITY WHEN THERE IS NONE”
I am considering putting this on a bumper sticker for my car.
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–We need more info and stories on EXACTLY where the asteroid came from that wiped out the dinosaurs 300 million years ago”
Is Walt”s long term memory finally starting to go?
Sad.
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ABC News: Tim Walz Has Spread ‘Inaccuracies’ That Went Uncorrected”
Trump lies.
Walz spreads “innaccuracies”
You can’t make this sh-t up.
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ABC News announced a venue for the Sept. 10 presidential debate: The National Constitution Center in Philadelphia at 9p.m.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have agreed to participate, with David Muir and Linsey Davis as moderators.
https://deadline.com/2024/08/abc-news-debate-philadelphia-trump-harris-1236042119/
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Walt, some of the rest of us have been with HHR so long that we’re going to be fielding the old guy jokes soon.
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So for the last several weeks I have been showing, with data, how yes, Harris did get a real bump because she is alive and can read a teleprompter unlike Biden.
But I kept warning everyone with data from the non-battleground state polling that race had not fundamentally changed. You cannot say on the one hand that Harris had turned around a Trump +4 national race into a Harris +4 national race, an 8 point swing, but not see any difference in CA, NY, FL, OH, OR, TX and WA polling. In order for that logic to work, all of the much smaller non-battleground states, and the battleground states would have had to have 15 to 20 point swings.
No amount of calculus, geometry, trigonometry, or algebra can make that happen. Mark Mitchell at Rasmussen reports kept calling this out for what it was, media hype.
And so now look at these national polls this week:
Fox News: Trump +1
Rasmussen: Trump +4
RMG Research: Trump +2
J. L. Partners: Trump +2
Democracy Institute: Trump +4
Pew, Quantus, and Cygnal, a little bit older samples all have Harris +1
Then we have had the Musk conversation which has helped Trump.
Then some absolute buffoon in the Harris campaign encouraged her chase away her newfound independent voter support by threatening Venezuela-style price fixes to destroy what’s left of the economy.
Very bad week for Kamala
Very good week for Trump
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Shipwreckedcrew
@shipwreckedcrew
Inflation + Price Controls = industrial level stupidity.
·
1,766 Views
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““NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE STUPIITY AND THE RATIONALITY OF THE AMERICAN VOTER; DON’T LOOK FOR REASON AND SANITY WHEN THERE IS NONE”
I am considering putting this on a bumper sticker for my car.”
–I just learned something. Walt has a big car.
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ok so first two policies
Federally mandated price controls
giving out $25,000 to homebuyers
yeah. That won’t hurt the economy
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DW
“You can always trust the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all of the possible alternatives.”
Generally attributed to Prime Minister Winston Churchill
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“Protest organizers in Chicago expect between 30,000 and 40,000 people to join Monday’s march on the Democratic National Convention, and are asking the city for a permit that would get them closer to the event itself.”
https://www.semafor.com/article/08/15/2024/here-come-the-democratic-national-convention-protests
Pass the popcorn.
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seems she’s is living up to the moniker Comrade Czar Kamala with her Soviet style policy proposals
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Vic, don’t forget about her idea on no tax on tips! 😉
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Media slammed Trump for the loss in federal revenue because he wanted table servers to not have to pay taxes on their tips.
Media praised Harris for the same policy position.
Media will praise Harris for giving away $25,000 every time someone buys a house without any mention of the loss in federal revenue.
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As Baris has stated on many occasions, response bias rears its head. It happens whenever a major event occurs that helps a candidate. The coronation of Kamala Harris for instance. It just means Democrats are more likely to answer the polls. They polls get skewed that way. The fundamentals of the race haven’t changed.
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The skinny is that the Marxist judge is going to give Trump an immediate one year prison sentence, and that NY is spending five million to prepare Riker’s for his incarceration. Shouldn’t we be talking about that and its possible effect on the race?
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Hi Phil,
Have the fundamentals at Texas A&M changed, or are they going 7-5 again?
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8-4, Marv.
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zerohedge
@zerohedge
·
Follow
*HOWARD LUTNICK NAMED TRUMP TRANSITION TEAM CO-CHAIR *LINDA MCMAHON NAMED TRUMP TRANSITION TEAM CO-CHAIR
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Phil,
8-4 sounds about right.
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Phil, where did you hear the Judge was going to sentence Trump to one year in prison?
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Phil, exactly.
People don’t realize that many ‘polls’ are really 100% online ‘surveys’ where users get a text or an email inviting them to click the link and take the poll. Even reputable pollsters use this method for a sizeable chunk of their survey, mixed with live interviews.
We had a major event, where relieved Democrats suddenly are all excited about the race because they could stop defending Biden’s dementia and start promoting a debatably sane candidate. They were suddenly energized to click that link and take the poll.
Its why ActiVote found absurd RAW party ID in Florida being Dem 50, GOP 25, or something like that…and so they did re-weight it, but you cannot accurately re-weight raw data that is that screwy.
Things are starting to settle back into reality.
Its been a frustrating couple of weeks, I admit. But reality settling back in.
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I saw somewhere that Alex Jones has a secret source who confirmed the Riker’s rumor. Not exactly a great source.
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“Alex Jones has a secret source”
😂😂😂
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If that judge tries to throw Trump in jail, I cannot imagine higher courts (SCOTUS?) just looking the other way. They might have Civil War II on their hands if they do not intervene.
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We will know in a month, DW…..but I have to tell you, Democrats are desperate and have shown time and again over the past years in the Trump era that they have no problem stepping over the norms. I wouldn’t discount it at all. I think its likely.
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If I were Ron DeSantis, and that judge announced an immediate 1 year prison sentence, I would hold an immediate press conference where I would denounce the lawfare for what it is, that Donald Trump is a citizen of my state, and as governor, I have a responsibility to defend the citizens of Florida from such Soviet style tactics, and I will NOT extradite Trump to be victimized by this kangaroo court in NY.
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I would think that even if the Judge sentences Trump to prison; he would allow Trump to delay going to prison until after the election. Otherwise, that is definitely election interference and the Supreme Court I believe imo would step in.
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I’d say if Trump opens up a two or three point national lead in three or four weeks you can expect jail time…or another “security failure” and another assassination attempt.
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But he will have to be in court for the sentencing.
That being said, Trump at most will have to post bail, the NYs new laws soft on criminals will benefit him.
He is not going to Rykers, you read it here first.
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it felt dirty just copying this, but here it is:
Alex Jones
@RealAlexJones
·
Aug 15
The deep state knows no shame and they are desperate. Our sources confirm that a section of Rikers Island has been prepared for President Trump.. https://x.com/TonySeruga/status/1823877444052697576
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It’s hard to imagine for sure, but then we’ve all watched this judge operate. Just for fun, what is everyone’s opinion on the effect on the vote should this actually happen? I think it’s a given that Democrats have been polling that question.
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In other words, would it move the vote either way?
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Phil, it would cause partying in the streets of the big cities, it would cause outrage in red areas where Trump’s numbers would soar higher. New Trump donations would go through the roof. Independents would be split, as some would fear that we can’t vote for someone in prison, while others who were more of the libertarian bent, RFK voters, etc., would be more terrified of the lawfare and move to Trump.
Probably a wash in the end.
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Phil, I think it would help Trump with minorities for sure, but it would hurt him with white people especially, college educated whites. In the end I don’t think it would move the needle at all. Those who support Trump already know these trials are political motivated.
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politically
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On the other hand, it would take Trump campaigning off the table. No more rallies.
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I think that the judge will attempt to as it will help his notoriety and him sell books, i think the SCOTUS will step in and stay the decision after Trump appeals, I think MAGA will explode, send him 100s of millions, regular GOPers will be pissed and Trump’s support will surge due to the enthusiasm among Trump voters exceeding the Harris renewed enthusiasm among Dems who abandoned that party over concerns for Biden.
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The Economist forecasting model has moved back in the direction of Trump:
Michigan – 🔵 Harris 59-41%
Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris 52-48%
Nevada – 🔵 Harris 52-48%
Pennsylvania – 🔵 Harris 51-49%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 56-44%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 61-39%
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 66-34%
As I keep saying, there is no way Harris will get NC or GA.
I don’t trust AZ and NV. The numbers in these two states are way to volatile for my liking, and there is too big of risk of fraud here, and they are west coast. Trump cannot be content to have to wait on election night to see if NV and AZ will pull him through. That’s just way too big a temptation for the left to cheat in those states.
Trump needs to focus on the EAST COAST so that on election night the race can be OVER before the left decides whether or not to try cheating in AZ and NV.
Focus the lion’s share of efforts on PENNSYLVANIA. I mean crazily so. Trump should spend enormous amounts of money, even in the PHILLY markets, even if it only moves the needle a tiny bit there. Why?
GA + PA = 270 EVs. Game Ovah.
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Oh, this judge is likely to do it. Look at what he has done so far. If it happens the question is whether Trump will be granted appeal to actually stop the sentence.
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Is it really this judge? Or is he being fed what to do by someone who is polling the potential reactions to the sentencing?
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Well yeah, this judge will move in whatever direction favors Democrats in the election. He’s a party hack. This question is being polled and re-polled by Democrats as we speak.
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If I was contemplating buying a first home, I would now POSTPONE my decision and wait until after the election and after the 2025 inauguration of Kamala and after she puts the $25,000 for the down payment on the table.
Thus, the housing market will be feeling tight on new sales for the next 6 months.
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I doubt anything Alex jones says but it would galvanize a Trump win where we need it.
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Harris is like the Margaret Thatcher of San Francisco
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I was forced to watch CNN for a few minutes in a waiting room. It was all about how well Kamala is doing in NC and how excited the voters are there about her.
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A $25k give away would increase demand for housing and increase prices. So the people getting the $25k would probably see most of it evaporate in higher prices.
Oh wait, there will be price controls on housing too!
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but it would hurt him with white people especially, college educated whites.”
I doubt it.
A college educated white who supports Trump is now going to vote for Kamala because a partisan hack sentenced him to jail?
This is an insult to college educated people.
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Carville losing it…
‘Racist’ Republicans Back Israel Because ‘Jews Are Whiter Than Palestinians’
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The Human Costs Of Kamala Harris’ War On Truancy
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/kamala-harris-truancy-arrests-2020-progressive-prosecutor_n_5c995789e4b0f7bfa1b57d2e
Wow, the Huffington Post is criticizing Kamala. Is this one of the signs of the end of the world? 😂
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Really stupid. Actually Sephardic Jews are often darker skinned.
“A new genetic study shows that many Arabs and Jews are closely related. More than 70% of Jewish men and half of the Arab men whose DNA was studied inherited their Y chromosomes from the same paternal ancestors who lived in the region within the last few thousand years.”
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New Thread
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This article was written in 2019. But still Huffington Post criticizing a democrat is rare.
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Harris is just pandering. It sounds like none of her policies will actually happen. Probably cause her to lose the election.
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The best way to reduce prices is to open the border and have cheap slave labor from illegals.
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