According to a new poll from Quinnipiac University whose last poll of PA in 2020 found Biden ahead 51 to 44 over Trump. This new poll was taken Aug. 8-12 against
1,738 LVs.
 | PENNSYLVANIA |
| Trump | 45 |
| Harris | 48 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| McCormick | 44 |
| Casey | 52 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
66 responses to “Biden +3 in Pennsylvania with Casey up 8”
first
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Thanks Big Joe…still that special feeling to type first here, after all these years!!
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Another poll that shows Trump only +2 with the white vote.
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El Segundo
“Biden +3 in Pennsylvania” ? – Uncle Joe would love this headline.
PPI and CPI numbers are now in. Rate cut guaranteed in Sept. Only question is whether it will be 25pts or 50pts.
Big Joe
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The prior Quinnipiac poll of PA was in January, and they had Trump 46, Biden 49.
Same margin.
Its just not in them to every show Trump ahead or even tied in a battleground state.
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It will be 50 basis points. They need to prop up Harris and make it look like the economy is doing well. Remember they did that for 8 years with Obama.
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“Thanks Big Joe…still that special feeling to type first here, after all these years!!”
The little things in life, Vic! I remember the rush as we approached 100, 200, 300 posts etc .. then trying to grab that double-zeroeth post. Nerve wracking! 🙂
Big Joe
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I dont know Vic. Rate cuts usually (not always) portend a coming recession. A 50 point cut may spook the markets. I’m thinking 25 points to avoid rocking the boat too much. A lot can happen between now and Sept 18th too… so we’ll see.
Big Joe
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someone look at this chart and tell me how inflation is at 2.9%…btw things are still going up in the grocery story.
All items 2.9%
Food 2.2%
Food at home 1.1%
Frozen noncarbonatedJuices + drinks 19.2%
Eggs 19.1%
Frankfurters 9.7%
Bacon+ Related products 8.5%
Beef roasts 7.5%
Pork chops 7.3%
Butter 6.1%
Dried beans, peas + lentils 6%
Baby food + formula 4.6%
Carbonated drinks 3.9%
OrangesIncluding tangerines 3.7%
Sugar and sugar substitutes 3.7%
Fresh whole chicken 3.1%
Crackers, bread + cracker products 3.0%
Peanut butter 2.6%
Food away from home 4.1%
From vending machines + mobile vendors 5.4%
Limited service meals + snacks 4.3%
Energy 1.1%
Electricity 4.9%
Utility (piped)Gas service 1.5%
All items less food + energy 3.2%
Motor vehicle insurance 18.6%
Photographic equipment + supplies 12.6%
Indoor plants + flowers 10.6%
Care of invalids + elderly at home 9.8%
Admission to sporting events 8.8%
Cigarettes 8.5%
Delivery services 7.8%
Pet services 6.6%
Hospital + related services 6.2%
Motor vehicle maintenance + servicing 6.2%
Laundry + dry cleaning services 5.7%
Rent of primary residence 5.1%
Day care + preschool 5.1%
Checking accountsIncluding other bank services 5.1%
Dental services 5%
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for a good visual of this chart
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/14/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-july-2024-in-one-chart.html
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Pollster Mark Mitchell at Rasmussen gives his own advice on how to evaluate polls, looking for red flags:
Here are some things to look for:
-RV or Adults vs. LV
-Small sample size
-Weighting shifts or oversamples
-Data source (proprietary panels, 100% online, or operated assisted calls are things I’m wary of)
-Contradictory results ex. Quinnipiac showing Biden up over Trump but 33% Biden job approval. Or a pollster having Biden down big, but Kamala up big one month later
-Coordination
-Other questionable factors: did they hold the data? Did they poll weekly then skip a week?
The data source in DW’s opinion is HUGE. Studies were done that show overwhelmingly that people will LIE easily and often in any self-selected online poll. People are much less apt to lie to a live operator.
The problem is few people are willing to pick up the phone. But many more are willing to receive a random email that invites them to click here to participate in a survey of the 2024 election.
Now that the left has woken up because their candidate is not demented Joe, they are now eager to click that link and participate. So pollsters are now saying wow, look at all the unweighted interest on the Dem side, so they have raw data at D+20 in a state that is even, or nationally, which is roughly even. Then the have to re-weight and usually leave it at D+5 to D+7 nationally, which is effectively putting their thumb on the scale, and they do the same at the state level polling.
But guess what? enthusiasm to click a link and take a poll doesn’t mean the person gets to vote three or four times in the fall (legally). The fundamentals of the race have not changed. Rasmussen has been CONSISTENT with their D+2 national model. They didn’t change it after Harris took over, and their results have been the same, with slight improvement on the Dem side.
And if you take the time to read the gory details on these polls, you might be shocked to find how many are 100% self-selected online surveys. Even polls where you think its mainstream, they will have over half of the results coming from a self-selected survey.
Enthusiasm still gets you only ONE vote.
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And just after I wrote the above, I check Baris and he says the same about the raw data being D+20 in a polling area that is even:
Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
·
29m
There’s no way to weight a raw sample that’s D+20, or R+20 for that matter.
That’s an INSANE response bias, unfixable.
The weighting efficiency (%) would be so unacceptably low, we would throw it in the trash.
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And now Pew Research out with a national poll
Trump 45
Harris 46
If that is reality, that’s a Trump electoral college win.
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I would prefer likely voters, but notice the sample size:
Aug. 5-11
7,569 RV
Pew Research Center
Harris 46%
Trump 45%
Be wary of garbage self-selected online state polls of 400 or fewer registered voters, and any national poll under 1000.
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So while everyone online was freaking out about Monmouth and their Harris +5 national lead against just 801 registered voters. Pew drops a 7,569 RV poll. Not all polls are the same.
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I am concerned Trump is leaking support from white women over abortion.
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And now some on the left are saying the Pew poll isn’t quality any more. They took the trouble to survey 7,569 RVs, but they don’t know what they are doing, because they didn’t limit it to 800 and show a big Harris lead.
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here is what’s under the hood in the Pew poll:
Male: Trump 49-44%
Female: Harris 49-42%
—-
—-
—-
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And for those keeping score at home, in August 2020, Pew had Biden +8.
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I read at HHR that abortion does not matter in this election.
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They are polling junk. They know it. They want to bury Quenala slipping and her numbers falling from the sugar high
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Abortion is not a top issue. Economy is number one
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I agree that many of these polls are junk. But that Pew poll should be a bucket of cold water in the faces of the loony leftists.
The STRONGEST group for Harris is the 18 to 29 year olds (Harris 57-29) who historically are the WEAKEST at showing up to participate.
An essentially even popular vote is a Trump electoral vote victory.
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Keep hope alive, Tina. Something is keeping Harris afloat and it is not the economy.
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Furthermore, Pew still found 7% clinging to RFK. And all the others together, Stein, Oliver, and West, they all got only 1%.
So keep in mind that the moment Harris seized the nomination, she grabbed up nearly all the Stein, West, and Oliver vote. She cancels them all out because she is just as loony-left.
She also grabbed her share of the RFK vote that was called the “double-haters” voters who simply refused to vote for either Trump or Biden.
And so now, what’s left of the RFK vote is much more Trump leaning. And so as RFK’s vote continues to dry up, the lion’s share of it will go to Trump.
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you are wrong. It’s not the abortion. It’s garbage poles that you fall for.
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One more thing. If Pew is right, and Siena College, Cook Political, and Quinnipiac are also right, then someone has to explain how it could be that Kamala happens to be only surging in the battleground states, so much so that she also has to be getting less support in other states to compensate for the Pew numbers.
So in light of these new Pew numbers, here is an update to the post I made earlier with a few updated numbers:
Everyone likes to keep their focus on the national polls, and the polls of battleground states. Understandable. However, in measuring the size of the media created Harris “surge,” you know, because she is actually alive and debatably sane, unlike the zombie she replaced, the non-battleground states can prove helpful as well. In these polls, there would be little to no incentive to juice the numbers for the purpose of nudging the narrative in the direction of Harris.
But if her surge is real, and long-lasting, we should see it showing up in the non-battleground states as well. So lets take these one at a time:
CALIFORNIA:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +20
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +24.5
A little movement toward Harris, but this is her home state, the state of fruits and nuts.
NEW YORK:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +10
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +11.6
Little statistically relevant movement, but either way much closer than 2020.
FLORIDA:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Trump +8
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Trump +8
Absolutely no difference.
OHIO:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Trump +9
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Trump +9
Absolutely no difference.
OREGON (one poll each):
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +11
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +5
More data needed, but certainly no Harris surge recorded here so far.
TEXAS:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Trump +9.5
Currently, there are ZERO Trump vs. Harris polls of Texas, which strikes me as odd. The leftist media, and leftist pollsters have been polling and repolling Texas all year desperately trying to find it in play. You would have to think that they have been polling it over and over since Harris jumped in, but for some reason they don’t want to release the results. Wonder why?
WASHINGTON:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +11
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +14
The Biden number was artificially deflated by an absurd Bullfinch group poll showing Trump actually ahead. The last two polls of Washington state found Biden up 16 and 14. Basically the same as the one new poll including Harris.
I am not sure what the combined percentage of the country’s population lives in CA, NY, FL, OH, OR and WA, but its a good chunk. And so my question is simply, why does the Harris “surge” only show up in media and university national polling, and in their battleground state polling, when at the same time it does not show up in CA, NY, FL, OH, OR, (TX?), and WA?
Maybe it has to do with them juicing the turnout models to D+6 or D+7 nationally, and similar adjusting on the state poll demographic weightings rather than any real significant movement?
No doubt Harris got a little bit of a bump in polling, after all, she is alive and can read a teleprompter with reasonable clarity. So sure, there is a boost from that compared to Biden. But this idea that somehow a woman who was disliked so strongly three weeks ago is now suddenly an electoral juggernaut is a bit overblown, and so far, the non-battleground state polling testifies to this fact.
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News from one of the most accurate pollsters in 2020:
Rasmussen Reports @Rasmussen_Poll
·
Battleground state polling is in field currently. Stay tuned.
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Dem pollster for a far left Org, and can only get Harris a 2 point lead nationally:
New @DemCorps/YouGov Blue (D) poll
National (n=2,234 adults, with leans)
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟪 Other: 1%
August 1-10
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If you are addressing me, zzzzzzzzzz. You know that I have never really been interested in polls. Ironic, since I saved a site with lots of polls in it.
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BOOM!
New national poll by Fox News
🟥 Donald Trump: 50%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 49% 15 (2.8/3.0) | 1,105 RV | August 9-12
https://google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-new-matchup-same-result-trump-bests-harris-one-point.amp
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adult poles over a long period. lol, they are getting desperate. I am referring to the drat pole
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Despite 3 national polls showing trump up, I will focus onl on the one poll showing him down.
-freee passer
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Not even registered voters?
New @DemCorps/YouGov Blue (D) poll
National (n=2,234 adults, with leans)
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Nobody at HHR did that.
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Watching baseball. 4-1 ratio of Harris to Trump ads.
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I am concerned Trump is leaking support from white women over abortion.”
White women who think abortion is top issue are already voting Democrat or Republican.
Polls consistently show these are a minority on both sides.
I have yet to meet a woman who told me abortion is the deciding issue in her vote. Not one.
Do they exist? Sure they do.
But the number one issue is the economy. Trump has to win big on that issue. And on immigration.
On abortion he should ensure his opposition to a national abortion ban is well publicized, but the views on abortion are baked in on both sides.
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I guess all those women in bright red Ohio didn’t really come out in an off-year election to enshrine abortion rights.
I must have imagined it.
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The issue is not whether people will change their mind on abortion. They won’t. The issue whether voters who were going to stay home are suddenly mobilized to vote.
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the good news is that the national polls are improving for Trump
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In the Fox poll, two-thirds of independents say debates are important, and 44% of indies rate the economy the top issue. There are still a lot of persuadable indies. Trump needs a big win in the debate, especially on the economy, to pull them over.
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Bitter – the Mets announcers were talking about Lehigh tonight, and how, when you are there watching a football game from the Press Box they look out at the old steel mills and the countryside, and said it was amazing. A must do one time
Thought you’d like that instead of talking abortion 😉
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The debates this year are massive. Against Clinton no one thought Trump would do well, so just breaking even was a victory…Biden in 20, we already know. This year the debate sunk Biden…now it’s on Trump. Harris has nothing to lose. If Trump does poorly he could/ most likely will lose the election the ways things stand.
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Whoever wins the debate probably wins the election. This will be the most consequential debate in a long time.
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The issue whether voters who were going to stay home are suddenly mobilized to vote.”
So people who aren’t even interested in voting are now going to be “mobilized” by an issue all polls show is not a top priority?
Hard to believe.
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I guess all those women in bright red Ohio didn’t really come out in an off-year election to enshrine abortion rights.”
That was a referendum on the issue and the partisans on both sides turned out and it passed 56-44. Different from a GE.
But remember the wording on the resolution was ambiguous and included this statement:
“Allow the state to restrict abortion after fetal viability, except when “necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.”
So probably many people who support some restrictions on abortion voted for it.
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Hi Folks,
President Trump will do just fine in the debate(s). Mainstream media will say Harris dominated and not much will change. Unless there is a significant failure by either VP Harris or President Trump, the each candidate’s support is baked in.
Don’t misunderstand, President Trump has perform, but no matter how well he does, he won’t get much credit for it.
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I was pleased to see the Fox poll this evening. 50% is nice. We’ll see what RAS has for us tomorrow morning.
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https://x.com/CarolineGlick/status/1823811472767496435?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1823811472767496435%7Ctwgr%5E90beed1929e1c7a932f799df4ca56a33b0ae3022%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F667086%2F
Could this possibly be true? Something tells me that J.D. Vance, supposedly an isolationist, would never do something like this……but jason won’t vote for President because of him….
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good comment, as always, Marv
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And they won’t come out again in the GE? Got it.
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Not hard to believe at all. Abortion does not have to be a top priority for all voters. It just has to be a a top priority for enough voters to turn an election.
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JD Vance wouldn’t give Iranians the names of Mossad agents?
I certainly believe that.
How that somehow doesn’t make him an isolationist is a mystery only a moron like NYC could explain.
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The stadium at Lehigh is built into a hill miles from the steel mills. They must have great eyes to see them.
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https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1823796814610366961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1823796814610366961%7Ctwgr%5E6221feccdb571c29b8bc5055f819f5c3646bbbc3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2024%2F08%2Fj-d-fire-vance-smacks-down-new-york%2F
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Trump War Room
@TrumpWarRoom
JD Vance TORCHES a Fake News NYT reporter: “When they say that inflation is down, they mean from a baseline where groceries are already 30% more expensive than they were when Donald Trump was president… That is not a record to brag on, that’s a record to be ASHAMED OF.”
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Abortion does not have to be a top priority for all voters. It just has to be a a top priority for enough voters to turn an election.”
Zzzzzz….
Two problems with that theory.
One, polls consistently show abortion is not a top priority for most voters.
Two, there are a lot of people who oppose abortion, so even IF people vote ONLY on abortion (doubtful) then if would work both ways.
Remember, the Dems only have about a 15% advantage on the abortion issue, and that is among ALL voters.
If you can show me a poll showing that there is a significant number of people who vote ONLY on abortion, and that the pro-abortion in that group greatly outnumber the anti-abortion in that group, then you might have a point.
I don’t think such poll exists.
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https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1823724428674449694?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1823724428674449694%7Ctwgr%5E9a9a607c9b59b617210cea143725dfda1e4161f3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2024%2F08%2Fouch-white-house-says-kamala-is-responsible-dumpster%2F
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The chart I posted is food inflation. It is the highest ever. This is an issue that most people are worried about. Not abortion.
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Doocy: “Axios is now reporting that she is ‘hoping to distance herself from President Biden’s unpopularity on the economy.’ Can you blame her?”
Karine Jean-Pierre threw Kamala Harris under the bus and said she is indeed responsible for the inflation crisis.
KJP: “Do you know this is the Biden-Harris administration. Are you aware that this is the Biden-Harris administration and she is indeed the Vice President?”
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The idea that abortion is. a big winner for Dems is mostly hype.
“Nearly six-in-ten adults (57%) disapprove of the court’s sweeping decision, including 43% who strongly disapprove. About four-in-ten (41%) approve of the court’s decision (25% strongly approve).
The split on Dobbs is 57-41, granted a healthy margin.
But it is probably much higher in very liberal states like CA, NY, IL, etc.
It is going to be lower in swing states, probably closer to 50-50.
In the end, we come down to how many people vote ONLY on abortion.
I think it is a very small number, and these people’s vote is not changing.
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As usual, jason misses the issue.
Biden/Harris may have given Iran the names, and a Harris/Walz admin, I believe, would do the same.
Yet, you will not vote for Trump/Vance due to your unfound belief that Vance is an isolationist because of some statements he has made as Senator, but you agree with me that Vance would not sell out Israel, and actually supports Israel……which is evidence of Vance NOT being an isolationist.
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Jason likes to talk about how less than a total of 50,000 voters in 3 states were the reason Biden won in 2020. He acknowledges Dems have a 15% advantage on abortion. But he does not believe abortion could play a role in this year’s election.
Of course, he isn’t voting for President so his opinions and analysis are zzzzzzzzz.
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New Thread
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But he does not believe abortion could play a role in this year’s election.”
I don’t think it will be a deciding factor in the Presidential race based on the polling on the issue.
I think a 15% advantage on the economy could certainly be a deciding factor because it is a much more important priority and polls show people DO vote based on the issue.
A 15% advantage is only important if a significant number of people vote EXCLUSIVELY on that issue.
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Harris is getting close to losing me on the price gouging thing.
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