according to a new poll by ActiVote done against only 400 likely voters, and a long span of time, 7/31-8/13, and it has a 4.9 MoE.
 | TEXAS |
| Trump | 53.3 |
| Harris | 46.7 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
41 responses to “Trump up 6.6 in Texas”
first
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LMAO – in Texas…so she gets the exact same number as Biden did in 2020…mmmmkkk
Texas is turning redder not bluer, and her brand of leftist california doesn’t play with the sort of Texas centrist Dems that live here.
She doesn’t top 44%
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btw how is this possible if there were 15M illegal immigrants living in the US at the start of the Komrade Kamala regime and at least 10M came in??
“because estimates by immigration and research groups of the number of people living in the country illegally – regardless of when they arrived – ranges between 11 million and 17 million.”
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If Harris did something similar to that with Morning Joe,”
Morning Joe’s audience on MSNBC is limited to moonbat diehards
“MSNBC averaged only 569,000 total day viewers from July 1-7 for its smallest weekly audience of the year. The progressive network also hit a low for the year among the advertiser-coveted demographic of adults aged 25-54, as MSNBC averaged only 56,000 viewers from the critical category for its worst week of 2024.”
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And if you are keeping score at home you will notice overall a famine of decent polling, and all we seem to get are these polls from either unreputable pollsters that have a very small sample (and huge MoE), or pollsters we have never heard of who do only online self-selected samples (like bullfinch), but its all designed to keep pace with the narrative they are pushing in the media.
Trump won Texas by 5.58 in 2020. Given all that has transpired since, he will win Texas in 2024 by a significantly greater margin.
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like minds… Biden received 46.5% in 2020 and that was without Kennedy on the ballot. Here in texas he will draw more away from Komrade than Trump.
She tops out at 44%
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MSNBC thinks Walz is “less white” than Kelly….
“MSNBC is the self-appointed police force for racist comments in American society. Not a day goes by when at least one of the pundits at the network does not label someone a “racist” – even if they are not actually a racist.
Yet, last week, one of MSNBC’s own went on another overtly racist rant against white people. Primetime host Joy Reid thanked Kamala Harris for not picking Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly as her running mate because, unlike Tim Walz, Kelly is “super white.”
Err, not just “super white.
According to Reid, Sen. Kelly is “like a mayonnaise sandwich on Wonder bread white.”
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This was brought up briefly in the other thread, but I really want to emphasize how scary this is.
A Washington Post reporter literally asked the White House to the censor X/Twitter Musk/Trump conversation because they claim its “misinformation”…which is their terminology for anything they think doesn’t fit the liberal party line
This is a mainstream, widely read and distributed (not like before) news organization.
Folks, this has to scare anyone. And to think that they believed the White house a. would do it b. has the power to do it, is even scarier
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Many of these recent “polls” are really “online surveys” where an email arrives at the inbox and says click here to take our poll, and of course in this situation, studies have shown, the person is MUCH more apt to lie because the person is not talking to a live human. This was clearly evident in the Bullfinch surveys, based on the number of trolls who said they were conservative Republicans voting for Harris.
The more credible polls do a mixture of online and direct phone calling, and due to this need to account for the weaknesses in polling methodology, they get samples upwards of 1000.
400 trolls clicking on an email link is not a real poll.
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”Folks, this has to scare anyone.”
For the last couple of years the Dems have done one egregious thing after another. Each time I think, this one will be so over the top of being dishonest, corrupt, unconstitutional, that people will finally rise up and be awakened to the Dems unscrupulous agenda. However, the same group of Dems keep voting in the same group of scumbags, literally giving away the innumerable rights so many fought and died for. It’s discouraging……
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I will set this one up for Phil, on this new Texas ‘poll’:
46% college grads, 54% women, R+1 and Harris is getting 43% of the rural vote.
Does that sound like the state where you live?
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Jan – its because the hard core Dems believe the lies, and also think Government should be policing our thought if it disagrees with what they believe,
Re-read Animal Farm. It is the absolute perfect representation of the current left wing in this country. They do not think most Americans are smart enough to think for themselves, and they, in turn, must think for them and tell them what’s best for them. Any resistance to this is considered misinformation and anti-democracy. Though the only democracy (as if we were not a constitutional republic) is what they say democracy is.
Its scary.
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But that 43% of the rural vote illustrates what I was saying with self-select polls where participants lie because they don’t talk to a real human. How many of those 43% were urban college kids sitting in their parent’s basements waiting to return to the University of Texas this fall.
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DW – HAHAHAHAHAHHAAHHA. If Kamala got 30% of the rural vote here it would be a massive victory for her.
Just look out at the midland area. The R wins with 86% of the vote every two years. Look at the rest of the rural counties. Ruby red 75%+ votes. If they think an ultra liberal woman from San Francisco is going to pus them to vote blue, they are insane
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Advice from Joe Cunningham to Trump fwiw..
“If Trump wants to win the most winnable voters, the ones he needs in the swing states that are still toss-ups, his best bet is to start doing interviews on local TV, local newspapers, and local radio* and appeal directly to swing state voters that way.
When your average American family is getting ready for the day, parents are reading the local paper or they are turning on the local talk show in the car on the way to take the kids to school or go to work. When families are settling in for the evening, they turn on their local evening news. While we talk all the time about ratings for the big 24-hour networks, the fact is that the legacy alphabet stations – ABC, CBS, NBC, etc. – attract millions of viewers not because of their own talent, but because they all have local affiliates with local programming that come on before the national news programming.
Trump and Vance can take advantage of this. Kamala Harris is running ads and getting favorable coverage from the press without doing any interviews. If Trump were to swing through the Rust Belt and do interview after interview with local outlets, he could reach voters in a way the ads and favorable national press coverage can’t.
Trump is largely absent from our local media. I’m a local media person** and I believe strongly that local media will always be a better format for talking directly to voters than anything the national press will be able to do for any politician.”
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Vic, it is scary. Most young women in America are eager to make the federal government their god, father, and husband, in that order. This god will not protect them, this father will not provide for them, and this husband will not love them. But they won’t learn that until we become Venezuela, but by then it’s too late.
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There is an anti-McCormick ad that shows several well to do white women saying what gives them pleasure is “playing with grandkids”, “outdoor hikes” or whatever each one likes but they all end with “and voting against Dave McComick” who supposedly doesn’t support any exceptions to abortion.
What is interesting is that they are all older women way past child bearing age for whom abortion is personally irrelevant. The ad is obviously not directed at younger women but to the upscale wine sipping suburban women (Bitter’s friend and neighbors).
Not sure why it is playing here although this market does cover the upscale Harrisburg suburbs in Cumberland and Dauphin counties.
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That’s a great idea, as long as it doesn’t include interviews from “gotcha” reporters like the ones that Vance had interviews with over the weekend…which, tbh and begrudgingly I say, he handled extremely well.
Maybe have Trump do local pieces that dont necessarily have to be friendly, but not openly hostile and let Vance handle one on one local interviews that could get ugly.
Retail politics still wins, and this is the ultimate retail politics mode. It would crush the Komrade Kamala campaign as she is completely unable to handle something like this.
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Jason – speaking of using abortion as a tool, in AZ they voted to put Amendment 139 on the ballot, calling for abortions up to 24 weeks, and anytime thereafter for the “mental health” of the mother. So basically abortion till birth if the mental health of the mom is at risk…
This comes after the state government last year reversed an old law which banned almost all abortions, and instead they replaced it with a 15 week abortion ban. So any abortions after that, except physical health of the mother, are banned.
To put this in perspective. The pro-abortion crowd wasn’t happy with being able to get rid of babies up to 15 weeks, they will not be happy until its, in this case 24 weeks (well after viability) and up to birth if the person is affected mentally by the child.
This tells you the type of people were dealing with. Disgusting…but, it will bring voters to the polls in November to counter the increase in R registration and those wanting to vote for Trump because of the unfettered illegal immigration affecting the state.
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Women I know tend to all be pro-choice. It doesn’t matter if they can bear children or not.
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They may not be able to bear children, but they can bear the consequences of voting for fools like Biden and Harris who cannot run a lemonade stand resulting in the price of food and consumable products being doubled or tripled in the last four years.
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Women I know tend to all be pro-choice.”
Are they ok with aborting viable fetuses?
Are they ok with no restrictions at all on abortion up to the delivery day?
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The Trump campaign needs to:
Does anything think that the adjustments will be made? I dont. MAGA cultists just explain every misstep and ever misspeak away as media spin or as too brilliant for ordinary people to understand.
It is really a sad thing to watch a country you love falling apart.
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I think we are sadly finding out just how important it is to many people to be able to abort a viable baby in the final month. A lot of this country is content to vote for the right to kill over the right to make a living – buy food, clothing, shelter, etc.
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”Women I know tend to all be pro-abortion. It doesn’t matter if they can bear children or not.”
FIFY
Twelve to fifteen weeks is pro-choice, and even the fifteen is stretching it (I held my dead daughter at 13 weeks, and she was almost fully formed; arms and legs, hands and feet, toes and fingers, and a peaceful smile). PP et al are the extremists here, and they want their haul of body parts to sell (don’t believe me? PP wouldn’t give me or an authorized agent my daughter’s remains for cremation or burial, I had to elsewhere to have the situation handled). Twenty four weeks is outright infanticide, and no, “mental health” is not a good enough reason to dismantle and otherwise merely viable child.
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Harry Enten at Cnn is not drinking too much Kool-aid
3 caution points for Democrats…
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May
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Mile wide Trump side
https://hhrphoenix.com/2024/08/13/trump-up-6-6-in-texas/#respond
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Jason: many women I talk to do not want restrictions. They feel that there are medical complications where a late term abortion may become necessary. Just conveying the opinions that I hear.
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk
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Combined views of the conversation with @realDonaldTrump and subsequent discussion by other accounts now ~1 billion
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Paul – medical for the life of the mother is different than, “you know what, I don’t want it anymore because my babydaddy left, so get it out of me…you know, for my mental health”
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Jason, – what was that link for, it comes back to this page
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One of the top rated pollsters from 2020 now going into the battleground states for new polling….
Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
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Going into the swing states today…
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Trying again
https://redstate.com/wardclark/2024/08/12/maga-california-farmer-plows-one-mile-wide-trump-sign-in-safflower-field-n2178014
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VictrC: I agree that it is different. I’m just saying that what I hear is that women want no restrictions for that reason and don’t trust the government to decide if it is a medical necessity.
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Jason: many women I talk to do not want restrictions. They feel that there are medical complications where a late term abortion may become necessary”
That comes under the “saving the life of the mother” exception.
If you “don’t want restrictions”, then you are ok with aborting viable fetuses just because you suddenly decide you don’t want the baby at 8 months pregnant.
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Btw, I am pro-choice in the sense I think abortions should be legal in the first 15-20 weeks.
But what the Dems want is abhorrent.
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nd don’t trust the government to decide if it is a medical necessity.”
The government is not deciding anything.
A doctor would decided if its a medical necessity.
But ” i just don’t want a baby anymore”, ‘my boyfriend left me’, ‘i can’t afford a baby” etc. are no medical necessities.
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Jason: I agree with you completely. I’m just passing on the opinion I hear from women like my wife.
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NEW THREAD
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Well my daughter with her little baby bump felt her baby move at 19 weeks. You’re abhorrent to push that BS position.
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