According to new polling from Trafalgar Group (NV, NC, AZ, and PA, 1000 LV each) and InsiderAdvantage (MI and WI, 800 LV each) from August 6-8:
| Trump | Harris | |
| ARIZONA | 48 | 47 |
| NEVADA | 48 | 45 |
| NORTH CAROLINA | 49 | 45 |
| PENNSYLVANIA | 46 | 44 |
| WISCONSIN | 49 | 48 |
| MICHIGAN | 47 | 49 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
50 responses to “Trump with edge in WI, PA, NV, NC, and AZ and Harris with edge in MI”
first. Two in a row. Woo hoo
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The race is back to being a tossup.
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You’re a beast!
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Quemala still trails.
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“The race is back to being a tossup.”
With Kamala not getting NC and GA, and with Trump leading in PA and NV, with WI tilting toward Trump, the race overall is still lean Trump.
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Comrade Harris is not winning NC or GA. I believe both are off the table. I also don’t see her winning AZ or NV…so her path to the WH is extremely narrow
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I know Trafalgar is a Republican leaning pollster. What about Insider Advantage – does it lean one way or the other?
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IA is technically non partisan, but the guy who runs it is close friends with Robert Cahaly, the director of Trafalgar.
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Trafalgar was very accurate for a few cycles (2016-2021) then stumbled a little in 2022. They had Blake Masters winning AZ (+1) and Walker winning GA (+3) Senate races. Masters lost by about 5 points. Walker ran about a point behind Warnock on election night then lost the runoff by 3 points.
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Poor RFK, on X he tries to thank one of his supporters and look how it turns out:
Tim Pool @Timcast
·
4h
You’re a good dude brother.
I was trolling the haters but in all honesty I do intend to vote Trump.
I hope to see you in the end be a part of his administration and help fight against environmental toxins and big pharma
Quote
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
@RobertKennedyJr
·
7h
I am so grateful to you, Tim, for your confidence in me but most of all for your steadfast defense of the Constitution and relentless love for our country. 🇺🇸 x.com/timcast/status…
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I think the race leans to chamomile.
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chamomile?
Have any of you seen the left. They are claiming, today:
Joe Rogan said don’t vote for Trump, endorsed RFK (never happened)
Trump is running scared of Comrade Harris, and hiding until after the DNC convention (normal…always been protocol not to campaign during the others convention)
Tens of Thousands to see Joy, which is Comrade Harris new catchphrase by the media, she’s bringing Joy to the nation
You cant make this stuff up
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in the polls above, the “Other” ranged from 2 to 5. But this is what we should see going forward. Trump vs. Harris, and then just Other. A complete waste of time to list Kennedy, Stein, West, Oliver, or Terry.
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Listen Jack, stop complaining about the crippling inflation, and stop saying you fear violence, and the flood of drugs coming in, and abroad you fear WWIII. You have JOY…Admit it!
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Thanks DW for the info.
I personally like the guy running Trafalgar. He seems like an honest pollster. With all these erratic polling numbers, combined with the sudden fondness for such an unpopular person (Harris), this election is turning into a roller coaster as to how Trump is really doing. What troubles me, though, is a repeat of all the irregularities that occurred in 2020 being repeated in 2024.
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left is going on and on about the crowds Comrade Harris is getting and how they dwarf Trump
So strange since 30 days ago she was the lowest approval rating VP of all time, and she couldn’t scratch together 5% in the Dem primaries.
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janzam
The cheating in 2020 was an ambush. In 2024 the Trump campaign appears to be taking the steps required to militate the threat of cheating in the battleground states. MI will still be a problem, maybe.
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Trump is campaigning. He did a presser yesterday and is in Montana today.
Let’s hope he continues to talk about the issues. Because, a free passer will repoet that he is not.
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Listen buster, stop complaining about losing your job, you have JOY, #%*@ IT!!!
–Czar Harris
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Listen buster, stop complaining about losing your teen to Fentanyl, you have JOY, #%*@ IT!!!
–Czar Harris
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LOL right
She is joyless, her and the world command czar Sargent col general major
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Saturday night might be alright for fighting, but apparently Friday night is deadtime on HHR…
Its like yall have lives or something
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“Our forecast thinks Trump has a 46% chance of winning the Electoral College, but that jumps to 96% when he wins Pennsylvania.
Phrased differently: Harris has a 4% chance of winning if she loses Pennsylvania.”
– @NateSilver538
For once I have to agree with Silver. We need to win Pennsylvania. Jason, quit being a baby 🍼 and vote for Trump!!!
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Today, the Trump campaign placed $37.2M in new ad spending, the most he’s reserved on TV ads in a single day this cycle.
New Trump reservations placed today by state:
GAPol: $23.8M
NCPol: $4.4M
MIPol: $3.1M
WIPol: $2.0M
AZPol: $2.0M
NVPol: $1.4M
PAPol: $867K
I’m not sure why Vic thinks Georgia is a guarantee win, but I’m glad the Trump team don’t and are starting to spend big there.
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when you want to know why Dems win elections…here is the result of our educational system
https://x.com/moronhumor/status/1821757447242920152/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1821806546969399319¤tTweet=1821757447242920152¤tTweetUser=DameScorpio¤tTweetUser=moronhumor
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MG. They know more than I do…I felt really good about GA. I certainly don’t think Comrade Kamala could carry it but maybe I’m wrong. Glad they don’t take my advice
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they need to win GA. AZ. NV and nE-2. Everything else is gravy
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Vic, I used to think Georgia was a solid Republican state; until we lost two Senate seats their.
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there^
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Harris is running ads every few minutes in my area of PA. None by Trump. A few Harris is horrible PA ads. McCormick is getting roasted by Casey without responding.
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NEW battleground poll of Nevada by Decipher Ai:
🟦 Kamala Harris 49% (+5)
🟥 Donald Trump 44%
⬜️ Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 4%
Aug 3-5 | 991 LV | MoE: +/- 3%
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/new-nevada-poll-sees-harris-with-biggest-lead-over-trump-yet
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Bl, how much TV do you watch?
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Kamala Harris wants to raise your taxes!
Try out https://www.kamalataxcalculator.com/
and see what this means for you!!
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Per Billings Airport, President Trump’s plane has diverted to Billings, MT, rather than Bozeman due to a “mechanical issue.” He is expected to take a private plane to Bozeman.
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Rally will sad at 7.
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Too much. Mostly sports or history programs. I do a lot of writing briefs and preparing for court/depositions at night so it is more background noise.
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I see all of this and still can not fathom a world where Comrada Kamala could actually be the President of the United States. What has become of this country if that holds true. This can’t be happening. How does someone go from 27% favorability as a Vice President, to winning someone who literally was almost assassinated, and who has a good record as President, albeit with mean tweets
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When you control the mainstream media anything is possible!
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Trump running an hour late in Bozeman. Every seat taken in the arena. Hard to comprehend how one man’s popularity has only increased over an 8 year period, where they consistently pack venues without any celebrity acts as incentives.
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Jan, the media and Komrade Kamala’s people are saying shes getting 20,000 in AZ. Again, file under hard to believe unless they are giving something away
Same person who got less than 5% in the primary
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10,000 inside & it is said the same number outside.
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Vic, her numbers and popularity are being artistically hyped. I’m streaming the event and people – some waiting 12 hours – are listening to Elvis Presley, dancing, doing the wave….a very happy group. Harris is simply a highly processed, scripted candidate – boring….!
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artificially not artistically
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it’s a concert and she is piggybacking off of it. So, yes they are giving something away,Vic. A free concert
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I place limited importance on rallies to gauge the impact on voting. Trump will have gotten my vote 3 times including November and I would never go to one of his rallies.
People who go to rallies are very excited but only (hopefully) vote once. It is like NHL games. If you judged popularity by attending games, the Flyers are hugely popular. They are actually fourth in Philadelphia behind Eagles, Phillies and Sixers. The joke is that people say there are only 18,000 fans but they go to every game.
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Ahhhh that makes sense. They made a big deal out of the lines outside of people waiting to see her. I didn’t realize there was a concert as well
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Good thing Trump is locking down the battleground state of Montana.
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janzam, Sorry that Trump is a loser.
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Paul, Trump is locking down Tester’s Senate seat; Sheehy is going to win by at least four to five points. And with WV, the GOP takes the Senate with at least 51 seats regardless of who wins the White House.
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